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Saucy

Karl-Anthony Towns 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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1 hour ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

 

"you're only an iron man until you're not" - Josh Loyd

True. Harden ****** me last season in one of my keeper leagues.  Most durable first round guard haha.  That’s why I traded him for Curry + Vucevic.  If they’re going to miss games Curry is a tad higher on the player rater and Vuc is a top 50 center.  The only advantage to Harden is he’s more durable and Curry will have rest days, but if they both have rest days....

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I mean I understand that intellectually but I’m not going to go through every player and estimate the total games they will miss then compare that total  against the value of the games by a replacement player.  Because any games missed is merely an estimated guess and not reliable.  Garbage in/garbage out.  Your method is more accurate but I think sometimes dumb, easy, and close is good enough for me. 

I agree and it is mainly to do when ranking the top 25ish players. I am not doing this for 200 players. I do think you can start to get some pretty accurate assumptions on rest though. The main point I was trying to make was that you need to consider your format before making your rankings and factoring in "projected health"

 

Oh, this is super important to do if you are going to target injured players, like a Porzingis or Boogie. I think injured players and your top 2 picks are probably the extent of this detailed analysis/projections....or none if you aren't totally nerding out over fantasy bball. 

Edited by thezing1
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Posted (edited)

For the last 30 games or so in the 2016-17 season KAT got up to 28 pts per game.   I think that would be a good projection for where he'll be if either Jimmy Butler or Wiggins is out of the picture and KAT once again gets 18+ field goal attempts.  That would boost his value to maybe 3-5 rather than 5-8.  

 

For a player who has been so consistent and doesn't seem to force things it's hard to see his blocks suddenly taking a leap to 2 per game.  It can happen...but I wouldn't hold my breath on that.  But let's say that this does happen--then he will be the clear 2nd best C ahead of Jokic, but still not as good as AD.  

Edited by Airball B
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I doubt timberwolves will make anymore moves, but yes if either Butler or Wiggins gets traded or hurt, KAT's value jumps up big time. might even be the top player taken if that happens

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11 minutes ago, sya said:

I doubt timberwolves will make anymore moves, but yes if either Butler or Wiggins gets traded or hurt, KAT's value jumps up big time. might even be the top player taken if that happens

Probably not taken. He was pretty underrated last year. But if he's getting 28 ppg, he'd be at least the #2 player in fantasy.

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Posted (edited)

Since you want a player in the top 10 play all, or almost all games in a season, his value takes another jump over some guys often picked ahead of him.

Edited by Nene

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https://sports.yahoo.com/report-karl-anthony-towns-won-160034749.html

 

OH DEAR GOD Please make Tibs trade Jimmy or Wiggins :)  (KAT ma favorite fantasy player)

I mean in his 2nd season (age 21) he averaged:

25+(P)

12+(R)

1+(BLK)

1+(3PM)

54(FG%) 83(FT%) 

He could be legit 30-15 (high volume) guy... playing EVERY GAME with out of this world %

Edited by Stefan
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On 9/17/2018 at 7:55 PM, Stefan said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-karl-anthony-towns-won-160034749.html

 

OH DEAR GOD Please make Tibs trade Jimmy or Wiggins :)  (KAT ma favorite fantasy player)

I mean in his 2nd season (age 21) he averaged:

25+(P)

12+(R)

1+(BLK)

1+(3PM)

54(FG%) 83(FT%) 

He could be legit 30-15 (high volume) guy... playing EVERY GAME with out of this world %

 

GOD:

Wish granted son :D 

 

AHHAHAhaahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
http://www.nba.com/article/2018/09/19/report-jimmy-butler-requests-trade-minnesota-timberwolves

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I still think Wiggins is the problem. Get Wiggins out of there, we'll see big man numbers we have not seen since KG or Shaq.

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Huge news for KAT's fantasy value.  Still need to see what MIN gets back in a trade but can't imagine their usage will be anything near Butler.  KAT jumps to #3 behind only AD And Harden with this news and definitely over Giannis IMO. 

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16 minutes ago, Saucy said:

I still think Wiggins is the problem. Get Wiggins out of there, we'll see big man numbers we have not seen since KG or Shaq.

OH PLEASEEEEEEE STOP

Your words bring tearz to my eyez 

 

c15fe8b4f982b48d78387497ce97f694.jpg

Edited by Stefan

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15 minutes ago, Saucy said:

I still think Wiggins is the problem. Get Wiggins out of there, we'll see big man numbers we have not seen since KG or Shaq.

 

We’re already seeing that though, his name is Anthony Davis

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1 minute ago, Boogie Buckets said:

We’re already seeing that though, his name is Anthony Davis

 

Fair point

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7 minutes ago, jamaal99 said:

Does the Jimmy Trade propel KAT in to the no.1 pick over Davis? 

 

I'd say it depends what they get in return... but still probably not. AD is on another level. 
But KAT's 2nd pick easily (for me).

Edited by Stefan

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39 minutes ago, jamaal99 said:

Does the Jimmy Trade propel KAT in to the no.1 pick over Davis? 

 

Nah AD is still #1 because of his block numbers but KAT will be close if Jiimmy gets shipped out. Top 3 for sure. 

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AD is the #1 pick and the only reason he isn't is if you don't want the injury risk. I say that as a person that seriously considered KAT at #1 earlier in the offseason. Personally, I would want to build with KAT instead of Harden so he slides into the #2 spot. But the reality is that AD, KAT, and Harden all give you great paths to build. KAT is just so freaking good and we didn't get to see an increase in stats last year because of Butler, Teague additions and Wiggins forcing more. Depending on what the Wolves get back for Jimmy 28/13 isn't that crazy of a projection for KAT. And those %s. Lots to like about KAT. 

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On 9/19/2018 at 3:09 PM, thezing1 said:

AD is the #1 pick and the only reason he isn't is if you don't want the injury risk. I say that as a person that seriously considered KAT at #1 earlier in the offseason. Personally, I would want to build with KAT instead of Harden so he slides into the #2 spot. But the reality is that AD, KAT, and Harden all give you great paths to build. KAT is just so freaking good and we didn't get to see an increase in stats last year because of Butler, Teague additions and Wiggins forcing more. Depending on what the Wolves get back for Jimmy 28/13 isn't that crazy of a projection for KAT. And those %s. Lots to like about KAT. 

 

For team builds, would you target the same players for KAT as you would AD?  Which players would you likely target if available?

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On 9/19/2018 at 3:09 PM, thezing1 said:

AD is the #1 pick and the only reason he isn't is if you don't want the injury risk. I say that as a person that seriously considered KAT at #1 earlier in the offseason. Personally, I would want to build with KAT instead of Harden so he slides into the #2 spot. But the reality is that AD, KAT, and Harden all give you great paths to build. KAT is just so freaking good and we didn't get to see an increase in stats last year because of Butler, Teague additions and Wiggins forcing more. Depending on what the Wolves get back for Jimmy 28/13 isn't that crazy of a projection for KAT. And those %s. Lots to like about KAT. 

 

I also agree with building around KAT versus Harden...BUT...I'm almost thinking at the 2nd/3rd turn Westbrook might still be there, and would make a better pairing with Harden as opposed to ruining your % and TO if you had AD or KAT

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34 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I also agree with building around KAT versus Harden...BUT...I'm almost thinking at the 2nd/3rd turn Westbrook might still be there, and would make a better pairing with Harden as opposed to ruining your % and TO if you had AD or KAT

If you think Harden and Westbrook wouldnt ruin your % and TO as much as say Harden and AD or KAT you have gone insane my friend.

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2 hours ago, PaddyAustralia said:

If you think Harden and Westbrook wouldnt ruin your % and TO as much as say Harden and AD or KAT you have gone insane my friend.

 

No you're misunderstanding.  I'm saying it seems better to pair Westbrook with Harden to outright ignore FG and fully punt TO and go for that build the rest of the way...versus drafting KAT or AD first then taking Westbrook which diminishes the advantage you built in % and TO in the first place.  Basically I'm thinking that pairing Westbrook with AD or KAT seems like it could be a bad pairing.  But Westbrook with Harden is an excellent pairing.  The premise here is full on punting with Harden and Westbrook.  

 

Also, to further clarify I wouldn't take Harden over either of them simply because I think Westbrook (or anyone else) might be available with your subsequent picks.  I would only take Harden over them if I felt like having fun and drafting for punt FG and TO, which is always kind of fun.

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9 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

No you're misunderstanding.  I'm saying it seems better to pair Westbrook with Harden to outright ignore FG and fully punt TO and go for that build the rest of the way...versus drafting KAT or AD first then taking Westbrook which diminishes the advantage you built in % and TO in the first place.  Basically I'm thinking that pairing Westbrook with AD or KAT seems like it could be a bad pairing.  But Westbrook with Harden is an excellent pairing.  The premise here is full on punting with Harden and Westbrook.  

 

Also, to further clarify I wouldn't take Harden over either of them simply because I think Westbrook (or anyone else) might be available with your subsequent picks.  I would only take Harden over them if I felt like having fun and drafting for punt FG and TO, which is always kind of fun.

My apologies bro, yeah that makes more sense! 

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8 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

No you're misunderstanding.  I'm saying it seems better to pair Westbrook with Harden to outright ignore FG and fully punt TO and go for that build the rest of the way...versus drafting KAT or AD first then taking Westbrook which diminishes the advantage you built in % and TO in the first place.  Basically I'm thinking that pairing Westbrook with AD or KAT seems like it could be a bad pairing.  But Westbrook with Harden is an excellent pairing.  The premise here is full on punting with Harden and Westbrook.  

 

Also, to further clarify I wouldn't take Harden over either of them simply because I think Westbrook (or anyone else) might be available with your subsequent picks.  I would only take Harden over them if I felt like having fun and drafting for punt FG and TO, which is always kind of fun.

Westbrook just went 12 overall in my 8 cat draft. I don't think he is coming back to the 24/25 turn in 99% of leagues. I think you should focus on this concept, but don't pigeonhole yourself into Westbrook. Look for similar stats or builds to this pairing if you want to try this roster construction. I will caution you though, you are going to sacrifice TOs, FG%, and then you need to be real careful sourcing blocks without compromising your FT%.  

 

12 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

For team builds, would you target the same players for KAT as you would AD?  Which players would you likely target if available?

If I take Harden in the first I am going to do one of 2 things. I am either getting blocks that don't compromise my FT% or I am going to cat kill and build off of Harden's elite cats. You can't have it all so you just need to commit to sourcing the point guard type stats or the blocks that don't hurt your FT%. That is about as simplified as it can get. Obviously, if you play H2H I would tell you cat kill. If you play roto I would still tell you to cat kill, but that might mean cat killing blocks if you can address that at 2/3 and then circling back to the elite cats of Harden. 

 

11 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I also agree with building around KAT versus Harden...BUT...I'm almost thinking at the 2nd/3rd turn Westbrook might still be there, and would make a better pairing with Harden as opposed to ruining your % and TO if you had AD or KAT

Honestly, I feel like there is a lot more versatility with a KAT build than a Harden build. I say that just because bigs that block shots without hurting your FT% tend to become much less dynamic later in drafts where the lower tiers of guards are still dynamic but just drop from elite to average/above average in cats like points, assists, etc. Personally, I think Jokic is a really interesting build option in the first. He literally touches every category and allows you to cat kill the PG stats or the bigs stats while giving you a foundation in threes, and %'s. You can make a really strong argument that Jokic is a better build option than say Greek, Curry, Lebron, etc. 

 

Let me know if I am not addressing your questions properly and I will try to be more detailed. This topic is of pairings, builds, roster construction is best done on a conceptual level, IMO. 

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Well...that settles it then. Jimmy is out the door. Thibs will probably follow. Fire up KAT as the #3 pick behind AD and Giannis, he's about to go off

 

LATEST NEWS

RECENT NEWS

Karl-Anthony Towns and the Wolves have agreed to a five-year, $190 million super-maximum extension, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com.
In what has been a week of bad news in Minnesota, the Wolves finally lock up one of the best young players in the NBA. Despite some controversy, there was almost no doubt that the Wolves were going to sign Towns because it's almost impossible for KAT to turn down this type of money. Sure, he's been the most durable player in the NBA with his 82-82-82 games-played log per season, but now he has financial security for life. With Jimmy Butler headed out of town, KAT is likely set for a career year after he's improved his efficiency, free throw rate and several other stats in each of his three seasons. He's locked in as a top-two pick in fantasy leagues in basically all formats. Sep 22 - 8:50 PM

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