Auction>Snake

Joel Embiid 2018-2019 Season Outlook

Recommended Posts

Embiid is finally able to take part in a full summer workout and has openly stated he's gunning for MVP this season. If he remains healthy it's not out of the question at all, his ceiling is literally unknown. Thoughts?

 

His latest instagram post has him looking more monstrous than ever before jesus christ...

 

2pt83u0.jpg

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He should not slip passed the 2nd round of any drafts coming up next season. The only thing that will hinder him being an MVP candidate is if Lebron James signs with the Sixers. Otherwise I see 25/10/3.5 w/ 2 blocks and 1.5 3s next season.

 

He's arguably the best center in the NBA and I already know people in my main league are considering him a late 1st round pick. There's always injury concerns but tbh after this season everyone has injury concerns now. Dudes a superstar on both ends of the floor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've always thought the injury concerns were overblown with him. Yes, they exist, but the idea that he was hurt for the first two years of his career is overblown. I still think the Sixers knew they were going nowhere the first couple years of his career and just shut him down as a precaution. If he's playing back-to-backs, watch out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm definitely targeting him in the first round :)  he's a game changer 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too bad he has some much trouble holding onto the ball and coming up with original lines, probably a third rounder ?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have zero issues targeting Embiid around pick 9 or later. I don't see him lasting through the second round so it is going to be a matter of how you want to build a team in the later part of round 1. I am going to guess we see him going in the 8-13 range as we get closer to the season instead of the 14-24 range because people will want to lock him into a C spot and not risk having him sniped in the second round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who is your ideal pairing with Embiid, if you take him in the 8-12 range?  Wall, Lillard, Simmons, Draymond, Gobert, Oladipo, Holiday, other?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

Who is your ideal pairing with Embiid, if you take him in the 8-12 range?  Wall, Lillard, Simmons, Draymond, Gobert, Oladipo, Holiday, other?

In terms of pairings, I like to break it down by categorical dominance, positional scarcity, and categorical scarcity. Embiid excels in points, boards, blocks, and assists. He is very mediocre in both FG% and FT%. He is average in 3's and steals. You draft Embiid 8-12 if you want to get your blocks without the expense of your FT%. Immediately, I would eliminate Ben Simmons because then you just compromised your FT% and lessened/eliminated one advantage of building with Embiid. Wall would be very difficult for me to pair with Embiid because I would just be scared of the health risk. I think the Dames, Dipos, Holidays of the world are fine pairings with Embiid. I love the idea of pairing Draymond with Embiid the most to really build on the strength of the stocks, but the rest really concerns me with the Warriors. I would probably look to Kawhi if that is a possibility and then address PGs with the tier under the elite. 

 

Sorry I can't give you a better "answer" to your question. I am trying to not get locked in on rankings and keep an open mind until the chips fall in the offseason. The first couple sentences are the thought process I use every year to determine my first and second round picks. If I have pick 11 then I will rank my top 11 players and break down their games and then rank out the number of pairings in order until my pick in the 2nd round so I don't have to think when I am on the clock and can stick to my rankings. If you want me to explain that better let me know. It has really helped lessen the anxiety when you are on the clock, but I play high stakes stuff so maybe anxiety isn't really a big thing for people in drafts. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/30/2018 at 6:58 AM, thezing1 said:

In terms of pairings, I like to break it down by categorical dominance, positional scarcity, and categorical scarcity. Embiid excels in points, boards, blocks, and assists. He is very mediocre in both FG% and FT%. He is average in 3's and steals. You draft Embiid 8-12 if you want to get your blocks without the expense of your FT%. Immediately, I would eliminate Ben Simmons because then you just compromised your FT% and lessened/eliminated one advantage of building with Embiid. Wall would be very difficult for me to pair with Embiid because I would just be scared of the health risk. I think the Dames, Dipos, Holidays of the world are fine pairings with Embiid. I love the idea of pairing Draymond with Embiid the most to really build on the strength of the stocks, but the rest really concerns me with the Warriors. I would probably look to Kawhi if that is a possibility and then address PGs with the tier under the elite. 

 

Sorry I can't give you a better "answer" to your question. I am trying to not get locked in on rankings and keep an open mind until the chips fall in the offseason. The first couple sentences are the thought process I use every year to determine my first and second round picks. If I have pick 11 then I will rank my top 11 players and break down their games and then rank out the number of pairings in order until my pick in the 2nd round so I don't have to think when I am on the clock and can stick to my rankings. If you want me to explain that better let me know. It has really helped lessen the anxiety when you are on the clock, but I play high stakes stuff so maybe anxiety isn't really a big thing for people in drafts. 

 

Yeah man that's awesome insight and info.  Based on my draft position i usually have a pairing scenario where I know who I want with my 2nd and 3rd picks based on my first.  I just don't like doing BPA, it doesnt make sense to me when crafting a team. 

 

As for pairings with Embiid and 2nd round picks...

 

I think if you take Draymond you are either punting points or taking high scorers the next 3-4 picks.  Punting points is ok, but that makes Embiid probably not the best first pick, and I don't like to be pigeonholed to take higher scorers with lower fg% with my next few picks.   But with Dray and Embiid you're good in Reb, Assists, Steals, Blks, 3's.  Below average in points, %, and TO.  

 

Either of Dame, Dipo, and Holiday would be sick too.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 keys for embiid taking it a step further this year. (aside from staying healthy)

 

1) improve FG%- which will also result to improving points

2) cut down TOs- his TOs were really a bummer

 

if he can do these 2 things, and I feel these 2 are realistic improvements, he will take it a step further

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sya said:

2 keys for embiid taking it a step further this year. (aside from staying healthy)

 

1) improve FG%- which will also result to improving points

2) cut down TOs- his TOs were really a bummer

 

if he can do these 2 things, and I feel these 2 are realistic improvements, he will take it a step further

I think improving FG% is going to happen with experience. His first year it felt like his usage was through the roof because he was only getting limited minutes. It was basically catch the ball and do something because you are coming out in 4 minutes. Last year he really started to play within the offense, but there were times his footwork was off and he forced things. I expect that to be cleaned up this year. I also think conditioning and an off season to train will help a lot. That said, he shoots a lot of jumpers so I don't think he will ever dominate FG%, but I think he will get above 50%. 

 

I play 8 cat so I can't comment on TO's aside from saying you should play 8 cat. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone watch the first preseason game? I know it wasn't against an NBA team but how'd he look? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DLove said:

Anyone watch the first preseason game? I know it wasn't against an NBA team but how'd he look? 

He looked really solid! Smooth jump shots and post moves, moved very well also, looked like he is the healthiest he has ever been! Defensive positioning also looked really good. 20 points and 13 rebounds in 23 minutes is good no matter who the opposition is!

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude is gonna beast.  Has stated that he has no restrictions games or minutes wise.  Has also stated that one of the things he worked on in offseason is ball security and limiting turnovers.  We shall see. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have the 12th pick in my money league 12 teamer, and depending on who is there at 12 (Dame, Dipo, Kawhi, PG) I will be swiping Embiid at the turn with pick 13. He's the guy going in the second round that, if things break right, he could jump into the top half of the first round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

I have the 12th pick in my money league 12 teamer, and depending on who is there at 12 (Dame, Dipo, Kawhi, PG) I will be swiping Embiid at the turn with pick 13. He's the guy going in the second round that, if things break right, he could jump into the top half of the first round.

I am really bullish on Embiid, but you are 50/50 at best that he is there at the turn. He just went 9 in my draft and I had him queued up if he "fell" to 11. I think Embiid is going to be the first round pick that rises as the season approaches. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dragonballz said:

If you take Embiid at the turn, around pick 11 or 12, which players do you usually pair him with? 

 

Paul George might be a nice one...gives you a good base in every cat except assists, which you can try to make up in the mid rounds.  Of course if Dipo or Dame is available they're great options as well.  8 cat or punt efficiency might consider Wall or RWB but both are injury risks.  Booker, Holiday, and Mitchell would be a little bit of a reach but I wouldn't fault you for it if that's your dude.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone else REALLY high on Embiid this year? (like REALLLLLY high) I am thinking of taking him late first round...and pairing him with someone like PG/Dipo/Butler...and trying a punt assist team.

 

End of first too much for Joel? I know its preseason, but dude looks hungry as a beast out there...I think he has a good chance at finishing top 10...maybe even top 8.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, crocp said:

Anyone else REALLY high on Embiid this year? (like REALLLLLY high) I am thinking of taking him late first round...and pairing him with someone like PG/Dipo/Butler...and trying a punt assist team.

 

End of first too much for Joel? I know its preseason, but dude looks hungry as a beast out there...I think he has a good chance at finishing top 10...maybe even top 8.

 

 

That's what I did a couple days ago. Took him with the 10th pick (12 teams) and then Paul George coming back around. No need to punt assists since John Wall was available in the 3rd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Kaboom said:

That's what I did a couple days ago. Took him with the 10th pick (12 teams) and then Paul George coming back around. No need to punt assists since John Wall was available in the 3rd.

 

Nice...Wall in the 3rd is a gem! 

 

You couldn't ask for a better foundation than those 3 guys!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really, really debating taking him as high as pick 8 (not sure what my pick for my draft is yet) behind only AD, KAT, Harden, Giannis, Steph, Jokic, and KD.

 

Still thinking through it, but I'm leaning towards taking him above LeBron (the number of playmakers on LAL plus the additional rest he'll probably get scares me) and above Kawhi.

 

Obviously there's risk, but is taking him that high really all that crazy?

 

I'm thinking that with him, you pretty much have to punt one of the percentages since they're both mediocre, and I feel like his FG% is worse (relative to other bigs) than his FT% is (which is actually really good for a big and doesn't come at the expense of your rebounds or blocks). Add to that his extraordinarily high number of TOs, and I think that he is a perfect building block for a punt FG% and punt TO team. Gives you the big man stats that you need in such a build, which is huge, in my opinion.

 

As far as who to pair him with for that build... I think it has to be Dame or PG. Both are extremely durable, and you need at least one of your first two guys to have a track record of being healthy.

 

Also think he works in a punt assists build as well (even with his high TOs, since punt assists team usually end up strong in TOs regardless), and for that build, I'd be aiming for Kawhi, Kyrie, or PG.

Edited by alclayno

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, alclayno said:

Really, really debating taking him as high as pick 8 (not sure what my pick for my draft is yet) behind only AD, KAT, Harden, Giannis, Steph, Jokic, and KD.

 

Still thinking through it, but I'm leaning towards taking him above LeBron (the number of playmakers on LAL plus the additional rest he'll probably get scares me) and above Kawhi.

 

Obviously there's risk, but is taking him that high really all that crazy?

 

I'm thinking that with him, you pretty much have to punt one of the percentages since they're both mediocre, and I feel like his FG% is worse (relative to other bigs) than his FT% is (which is actually really good for a big and doesn't come at the expense of your rebounds or blocks). Add to that his extraordinarily high number of TOs, and I think that he is a perfect building block for a punt FG% and punt TO team. Gives you the big man stats that you need in such a build, which is huge, in my opinion.

 

As far as who to pair him with for that build... I think it has to be Dame or PG. Both are extremely durable, and you need at least one of your first two guys to have a track record of being healthy.

 

Also think he works in a punt assists build as well (even with his high TOs, since punt assists team usually end up strong in TOs regardless), and for that build, I'd be aiming for Kawhi, Kyrie, or PG.

Last 2 months of season when he was peaking his fg% was 53% and that was on like 23 ppg.  That actually anchors your fg%, the opposite of having to punt it. I think you need to look more into jokic numbers. Also in most drafts he wont last to 8th, generally goes 5-7th. Smart owners take him over kd and curry because they want their main star for h2h playoffs actually always playing and with a good playoff schedule unlike the warriors horrendous one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I almost took him at 7 but went Westbrook (9-Cat DD) and got so lucky on the turn with Embiid...It's all about health, if he stays healthy, he WILL produce 1st round value with top 5 potential..no question!!! Who is the other big scorer in Philly besides him, exactly...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, richg24 said:

Last 2 months of season when he was peaking his fg% was 53% and that was on like 23 ppg.  That actually anchors your fg%, the opposite of having to punt it. I think you need to look more into jokic numbers. Also in most drafts he wont last to 8th, generally goes 5-7th. Smart owners take him over kd and curry because they want their main star for h2h playoffs actually always playing and with a good playoff schedule unlike the warriors horrendous one

 

I feel you. In most mocks though, Embiid isn't even going in the first round - usually it's right after the turn in a 12 teamer.

 

Not sure I could take him over either Warrior, though... assuming Steph plays 75+ games like he did the last few seasons prior to 17-18, he has the upside of being the #1 fantasy player. Do I think that'll happen with KD around? Probably not, but top 3-4 certainly isn't out of the question. Same goes for KD.

 

Can Embiid finish top 3-4? It's not impossible, but if I had to put any amount of money on it, I would probably say no. That's not a slight to him, though - there's just more risk attached to him than there is to either of the Warriors, since we know exactly what we're getting from both of them. I also think that both Houston and the Lakers will be pressing Golden State for the top three records in the west, so I don't think that they'll miss as many games down the stretch with home court advantage and playoff seeding in play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.