Saucy

Robert Covington 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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34 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Never said that actually. 

Ok, you said "advantage". But in my opinion low volume guys have no advantage over high volume guys. I can't describe how happy I am if I follow stats of the game and saw: my guy is doing an assist, then rebound, ok then he miss a shot, but again rebound and steal etc. At the same time you look play-by-play and RoCo is not even mentioned during five minutes - he has done nothing....

Edited by apatas

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3 minutes ago, apatas said:

Ok, you said "advantage". But in my opinion low volume guys have no advantage over high volume guys.

 

Volume makes a huge difference. RoCo shot 41.3% last year, but Dame who shot 43.9% was far worse for your team's fg% because of the volume of shots he took. RoCo will never be a great scorer, and his value comes from three's, so saying he will be less of a focal point in the offense could work to his advantage if he is exclusively taking high percentage 3's.

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2 minutes ago, apatas said:

Ok, you said "advantage". But in my opinion low volume guys have no advantage over high volume guys.

I said that’s one advantage they have.  I didn’t mean to imply that they had an overall advantage.  You could take Steven Adams and he has an advantage over Curry in boards, blocks, and FG%.   But that  doesn’t mean I prefer Adams.  I was only referencing people who criticize RoCo’s FG%.  And my counter argument was that the advantage to RoCo being low volume is that his FG doesn’t hurt you as much.  That’s all.  Miscommunication.  

 

FWIW I think RoCo will finish in the top 50 in 9 cat roto because he finished there last year and his team has changed very little.  But I wouldn’t buy him at 50 bc people are going to be anchored by ESPNs terrible valuation of him.  So idk 60ish is probably where I would take him.  I also don’t really like ranking systems in general because if I see someone I like more than RoCo then I’ll take the other guy and if not I’ll take RoCo.  So many of my decisions are made in the middle of the draft that I only come in with a loose concept of where I value players.  I don’t use ranking charts.  

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Just now, Saucy said:

 

Volume makes a huge difference. RoCo shot 41.3% last year, but Dame who shot 43.9% was far worse for your team's fg% because of the volume of shots he took. RoCo will never be a great scorer, and his value comes from three's, so saying he will be less of a focal point in the offense could work to his advantage if he is exclusively taking high percentage 3's.

Of course I understand but why such an example? Because anyone drafts Dame over RoCo. That is why high volume guys are better: they just doing more.

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4 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

 So many of my decisions are made in the middle of the draft that I only come in with a loose concept of where I value players.  I don’t use ranking charts.  

I can say only: same here, I also made sometimes decisions not based on my rank. But still I prepare carefully my prerank, without certain rank is difficult to draft.

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21 hours ago, apatas said:

Of course I understand but why such an example? Because anyone drafts Dame over RoCo. That is why high volume guys are better: they just doing more.

I don't think the point of his post was to debate Dame vs Covington.. It was to show that volume matters..

Since Covington's value doesn't rely on volume, there's a (in my opinion) good chance Covington will be just as valuable in fantasy, and an even better chance he's more important in real life.

Imagine if Covington took twice as many shots.. then his value would tank because his FG would hurt way more. On the other side, if he takes less shots, his value could stay the same because he will still provide his stocks.

Shooting 3/7 is easier to recover than shooting 12/28, but they are the same percentage.

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2 hours ago, tongs said:

Imagine if Covington took twice as many shots.. then his value would tank because his FG would hurt way more.

Imagine if Covington took twice as many shots he scores 25 pts and 5 three-pointers!!!

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4 hours ago, tongs said:

Imagine if Covington took twice as many shots.. then his value would tank because his FG would hurt way more.

 

He would be a first-rounder with that kind of usage, actually. In a team context, a further 10.45 attempts at 41.3% shooting does not have a lot of weight, being worth about -5.1 point-equivalents. Assuming his percentage and three-pointer rate remained the same, doubling his attempts would add 12.6 points and 2.5 threes (22.5 point-equivalents). He would be somewhere around the level of Damian Lillard and Chris Paul, in terms of total impact.

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A better example would be to compare Wiggins to Draymond to show that while usage matters, what matters more is what you do with it.  No one drafts RoCo for his usage, the only reason why he gets drafted is his stocks and threes.  People are confusing cause with effect.  RoCo isn’t good bc he is low usage, rather he’s good because of his defensive stats.  If he had more usage then he would be better.  Adding usage to a good player makes him better but adding usage to a trash player does little because that extra usage will be hollow.  Roco is productive with his time on the floor, certainly if he had more time/usage he would be even more productive.  

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Expecting him to still provide value at his ADP in h2h cat. Not an all around pick, but a solid contributor in for sure. 

 

He gets underestimated in general despite being a great 3 & D option.  Great fit for a few punts given the concentrated productivity in defensive/3PT stats. As mentioned, RoCo is not dependent on volume to produce however I do expect a decline in boards with the addition of Dwight, if only slightly. 

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yep, look out if he is on a heater during fantasy playoffs. Good way to win some cash when your 5th round pick is putting up 1st/2nd round value for a couple weeks

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2 hours ago, 80version said:

Expecting him to still provide value at his ADP in h2h cat. Not an all around pick, but a solid contributor in for sure. 

 

He gets underestimated in general despite being a great 3 & D option.  Great fit for a few punts given the concentrated productivity in defensive/3PT stats. As mentioned, RoCo is not dependent on volume to produce however I do expect a decline in boards with the addition of Dwight, if only slightly. 

He gets underrated because there are times pretty much every season where he isn't rosterable. This argument comes up almost every year. Last year it was dieng, changing roles, systems, new players and low volume guys. @StifleTower2 was on the same side of that argument and it didn't turn out well for dieng. Low volume guys have the ability to drop off a cliff. See dieng, see Danny Green, see dorrell Wright for a few examples of their roles lessen. It seems Fultz looks certain to get an expanded role. Who does that come in expense of? Reddick sure what he is literally catch and shoot, no biggie, Fultz will need more than his usage so its saric or the Lord? Covington suffered in the playoffs so it's likely him again. He really is just a support piece and his role has been inflated over the last few years because of the terrible talent around him. Now they are all good so I can see him dropping off quite a bit this year. Same argument again RoCo it's OK but he isn't great, that's how real life affects fantasy... Very useful fantasy players that are just real life role players have the potential to fall off a cliff. And saric is a much better real life player. He has a much bigger impact on this team. In my opinion he is the likely the real underrated guy on their roster 

 

In summary I think he has a very low floor this season but obviously still a high ceiling. Risk- reward pick. But I have little doubt at times he will be unusable and dropped in a lot of places and at times probably goes on a run. Personally I'm not taking that risk in the top 75 picks. I want higher floor players. After that I may turneth to the Lord

Edited by Jake the snake
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4 hours ago, DezedandConfused said:

Lord Covington, the greatest boom or bust player of all time.

That is the reason why I don't draft him at TOP50 despite he was in TOP50 by BBM rankings.

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5 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

He gets underrated because there are times pretty much every season where he isn't rosterable. This argument comes up almost every year. Last year it was dieng, changing roles, systems, new players and low volume guys. @StifleTower2 was on the same side of that argument and it didn't turn out well for dieng. Low volume guys have the ability to drop off a cliff. See dieng, see Danny Green, see dorrell Wright for a few examples of their roles lessen. It seems Fultz looks certain to get an expanded role. Who does that come in expense of? Reddick sure what he is literally catch and shoot, no biggie, Fultz will need more than his usage so its saric or the Lord? Covington suffered in the playoffs so it's likely him again. He really is just a support piece and his role has been inflated over the last few years because of the terrible talent around him. Now they are all good so I can see him dropping off quite a bit this year. Same argument again RoCo it's OK but he isn't great, that's how real life affects fantasy... Very useful fantasy players that are just real life role players have the potential to fall off a cliff. And saric is a much better real life player. He has a much bigger impact on this team. In my opinion he is the likely the real underrated guy on their roster 

 

In summary I think he has a very low floor this season but obviously still a high ceiling. Risk- reward pick. But I have little doubt at times he will be unusable and dropped in a lot of places and at times probably goes on a run. Personally I'm not taking that risk in the top 75 picks. I want higher floor players. After that I may turneth to the Lord

The difference is Covington is a better real life player than Dieng and his coach doesn’t hate him or have some absurd preference for a different player that plays his position like Thibs does for Gibson.  Granted at this point I wouldn’t draft RoCo in the top 50 because the market isn’t forcing you to do so.  You can probably still get him at 75 if your league is following ESPNs default rankings.  There are also other better players I think are being undervalued in that range such as Vuc.  But I would put Roco around the same tier as JRich, Barton, Ingles, Prince and I think all of the above are underrated.  I would probably take as many of these that fell to me outside the top 50 (whoever was cheapest among them). 

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On 10/4/2018 at 6:49 AM, DezedandConfused said:

Lord Covington, the greatest boom or bust player of all time.

 

AHahhah true dat ! :D  

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As a Morey "discovery" (I remember when Cov was an undrafted pre-season addition to the Rockets), I've been a huge fan of Robert Covington's since he's been in the league.

 

Last year, he probably had a peak year. My friend and I are putting together a set of analytics tools for fantasy ball and Covington looked great last year. We ranked him 22: http://9cat.fun/?cats=ft_pct&cats=fg3m&cats=pts&cats=ast&cats=stl&cats=tov&cats=blk&cats=reb&cats=fg_pct

 

In fact, we've got data going back years (but historical data is not on the site yet!) that show last year was a bit of an aberration. He produced like 23% more value last year than his second best year.

 

But I'd still go after him. He doesn't have to score much to provide great value in 9cat leagues. Heck, if you punt FG%, his value just rises. For example, punting FG% last year put him at 14: http://9cat.fun/?cats=ft_pct&cats=fg3m&cats=pts&cats=ast&cats=stl&cats=tov&cats=blk&cats=reb

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he cracks top 50 overall value again. Caution though, because he had a great season last year, I doubt he'll replicate. I expect him to come back down to his average a bit. That said, I'd 100% target Cov if I realize I need to start punting FG%.

 

Screen Shot 2018-10-12 at 9.46.39 AM.png

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1 hour ago, InMoreyWeTrust said:

As a Morey "discovery" (I remember when Cov was an undrafted pre-season addition to the Rockets), I've been a huge fan of Robert Covington's since he's been in the league.

 

Last year, he probably had a peak year. My friend and I are putting together a set of analytics tools for fantasy ball and Covington looked great last year. We ranked him 22: http://9cat.fun/?cats=ft_pct&cats=fg3m&cats=pts&cats=ast&cats=stl&cats=tov&cats=blk&cats=reb&cats=fg_pct

 

In fact, we've got data going back years (but historical data is not on the site yet!) that show last year was a bit of an aberration. He produced like 23% more value last year than his second best year.

 

But I'd still go after him. He doesn't have to score much to provide great value in 9cat leagues. Heck, if you punt FG%, his value just rises. For example, punting FG% last year put him at 14: http://9cat.fun/?cats=ft_pct&cats=fg3m&cats=pts&cats=ast&cats=stl&cats=tov&cats=blk&cats=reb

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he cracks top 50 overall value again. Caution though, because he had a great season last year, I doubt he'll replicate. I expect him to come back down to his average a bit. That said, I'd 100% target Cov if I realize I need to start punting FG%.

 

 

 

 

Interested to hear more about your ranking system and what the underlying factors are with the weightings to have quite differing values to BBM. 

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Did we all see his sexy 6 steals the other night ? 

 

 

My body is ready, Thy Lord ...

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14 hours ago, Quazza said:

Did we all see his sexy 6 steals the other night ? 

 

 

My body is ready, Thy Lord ...

 

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAhhhhhhhhhahahahahahahahha take me
OH DEAR SWEET LORD !

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As long as the Lord grants me those steals and blocks, I will never speak ill of his name. 

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Back on this train another year. I've drafted this guy like five years in a row somehow.

 

As has been echoed ad nauseum in this thread, Covington is one of the most polarizing fantasy assets. His season stats don't jump off the page whatsoever (to the untrained eye). But on a week to week basis, on any given week, he gives you a chance to win blocks and/or steals and/or threes basically on his own. 

 

Just look at the last page of last year's thread. Several posters (myself included) on hands and knees praising the lord for his matchup-changing-ability late in the playoffs and also during championship week when he totaled 13 threes, 16 steals and 14 blocks from 4/2–4/11.

 

 

These are the kind of guys you want on your team. Yeah, he'll have probably 4 or 5 weeks where he kills your FG% and disappears at times. But he's too important of a piece on defense to be taken off the court for the Sixers who will be contending in the East. Sign me up in the fifth round... again.

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