Gile Pile

Mike Conley 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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On 6/29/2018 at 4:42 PM, Gile Pile said:

Can he return to his 2016/2017 numbers?  Where would you draft him this year?

Doesn't seem like Conley can come close to playing a full season but, when healthy, he's a great bet to put up top 30-40 #'s.  The Grizz are paying him a ton and they aren't going to have that many other weapons.  If the price is right, he's a guy that I would target for next season.

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Probably looking at him around the 5th, more likely the 6th round.  Will have hot stretches of top 10 / top 20 numbers when healthy. 

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5 hours ago, kane said:

looking his injury history,umm....no thanks

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Apparently in Jan-2016 Mike Conley was possessed by an ancient soreness demon that casuaully moved between different parts of his body until settling down in his Achilles late 2017. I heard about these on Ghost Hunters International, serious stuff.

 

Also...Sore eye?! 

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I'm off of Conley.  His numbers were declining anyway, and his steals are just average at best.  I heard he's also not fully healthy yet, although of course "he fully expects to be healthy to start the year".  

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I'm off of Conley this year, his stats were declining anyway, and he's a liability FG wise, especially if he's not healthy.  

 

I think the more interesting question that I want to know is - 

 

Which other Memphis guards are you drafting?  Do you almost have to draft Harrison if you take Conley?  True, it's crowded with Mack, Temple, Carter, Seldon, Brooks, and Brooks.  But Harrison is probably the first guard off the bench, assuming he doesn't start at SG, and should garner the most minutes of all of them.  

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11 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

I'm off of Conley this year, his stats were declining anyway, and he's a liability FG wise, especially if he's not healthy.  

 

 

I don't think he was declining. An 11 game sample where on half of them he said he wasn't feeling good cannot be taken very seriously. The year before that he had the best season of his career. He is soon to be 31, normally the decline starts later although I understand the injury concerns. Just commented on the decline stuff.

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He's ad a whole season of rest though. I think he's recovered whatever injuries he might have had and not decline as much as guys that played through injuries as a 30 year old.

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11 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

 

I don't think he was declining. An 11 game sample where on half of them he said he wasn't feeling good cannot be taken very seriously. The year before that he had the best season of his career. He is soon to be 31, normally the decline starts later although I understand the injury concerns. Just commented on the decline stuff.

 

Yes his last "healthy" year was great, I overlooked that.  I should have been more specific in that his steals have been declining since 2012 and he'll be lucky to get a little over a steal per game, which made up a lot of his perceived value in the past, which people may still associate with Conley.  His points were in the 15 ppg range before jumping to 20 in 2016, which was on an outlier career high 46% shooting and 40% from 3.  I don't think he ever hits that again...and with the combination of injuries catching up I'm staying far away. 

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he's a steal this year....i got him with the 53rd pick in the 5th round. it's going to be his comeback year- he had his best season before the injury.

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The disrespect to the richest player in NBA history for that one second....

 

If he ever gets his steals back up to the 1.5-2 in his earlier years, it's a crime if he lasts till the 5th

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2 hours ago, scienze said:

he's a steal this year....i got him with the 53rd pick in the 5th round. it's going to be his comeback year- he had his best season before the injury.

He only played 12 games before the injury. Two of the last three seasons he played less than 60 games. Any worries about the number of games played for any reason?

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14 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

He only played 12 games before the injury. Two of the last three seasons he played less than 60 games. Any worries about the number of games played for any reason?

 

 

yea, there always a worry for injury .. but i feel like conley will come back strong. plus, the grizz need his scoring more than ever. 

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I took a flyer on him in several leagues and I’m mildly optimistic but i think many people are too optimistic.  His game is changing as he ages as he’s gone from a pass first defensive minded point to being the primary scorer on his team.  This means his assists are down to 5 and his steals down to 1ish.  But his scoring has gone up to 20+ with 2.5+ threes.  That’s a LouWill type line.  Then you have to weigh his risk of injury with LouWill’s risk of losing time and/or declining.  I know the term shut down risk gets used too frequently but given his injury history if the grizzlies are sitting at a 30-40 record I bet they will shut him down.  So even if he dodges injury you’re still only looking at 65ish games as I think it’s doubtful they will be fighting for a playoff spot.  On top of that I think his days of being top 30 are over and he’s more of a top 50 guy even if healthy.  The negative aside, his price is cheap, I’ve been getting him for around 20.   Point guards are scarce (although not as much as centers) and he projects to be top 10 among point guards so I think he’s worth 20 for sure.  I would just be realistic and not get your hopes up.  

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This guy is such a headache to own because of his injuries and how bad the grizzlies are. Save yourself some stress and put him on your DND

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I took a flyer on him in several leagues and I’m mildly optimistic but i think many people are too optimistic.  His game is changing as he ages as he’s gone from a pass first defensive minded point to being the primary scorer on his team.  This means his assists are down to 5 and his steals down to 1ish.  But his scoring has gone up to 20+ with 2.5+ threes.  That’s a LouWill type line.  Then you have to weigh his risk of injury with LouWill’s risk of losing time and/or declining.  I know the term shut down risk gets used too frequently but given his injury history if the grizzlies are sitting at a 30-40 record I bet they will shut him down.  So even if he dodges injury you’re still only looking at 65ish games as I think it’s doubtful they will be fighting for a playoff spot.  On top of that I think his days of being top 30 are over and he’s more of a top 50 guy even if healthy.  The negative aside, his price is cheap, I’ve been getting him for around 20.   Point guards are scarce (although not as much as centers) and he projects to be top 10 among point guards so I think he’s worth 20 for sure.  I would just be realistic and not get your hopes up.  

Great post, spot on. 

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12 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I took a flyer on him in several leagues and I’m mildly optimistic but i think many people are too optimistic.  His game is changing as he ages as he’s gone from a pass first defensive minded point to being the primary scorer on his team.  This means his assists are down to 5 and his steals down to 1ish.  But his scoring has gone up to 20+ with 2.5+ threes.  That’s a LouWill type line.  Then you have to weigh his risk of injury with LouWill’s risk of losing time and/or declining.  I know the term shut down risk gets used too frequently but given his injury history if the grizzlies are sitting at a 30-40 record I bet they will shut him down.  So even if he dodges injury you’re still only looking at 65ish games as I think it’s doubtful they will be fighting for a playoff spot.  On top of that I think his days of being top 30 are over and he’s more of a top 50 guy even if healthy.  The negative aside, his price is cheap, I’ve been getting him for around 20.   Point guards are scarce (although not as much as centers) and he projects to be top 10 among point guards so I think he’s worth 20 for sure.  I would just be realistic and not get your hopes up.  

 

Agreed, all the people off him in this thread are exactly why I am so high on him.  Great value if he comes back to anything like the year before last. 

On the flip side, I spent 29 on him because I was desperate for a starting caliber PG halfway through a 14-team auction.  There goes all the value; now I am just hoping he plays well enough to warrant it.

 

On 9/8/2018 at 12:29 PM, krupocin said:

 

Apparently in Jan-2016 Mike Conley was possessed by an ancient soreness demon that casuaully moved between different parts of his body until settling down in his Achilles late 2017. I heard about these on Ghost Hunters International, serious stuff.

 

Also...Sore eye?! 

 

Yes, sore eye.  He collided with Kawhi Leonard and had a huge gash on his eyebrow that required many stitches and he was not allowed to return to play.  People like you are ridiculous, Conley is one of the toughest cats in the league. I guess it's easy to be an internet tough guy.

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13 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

 

Agreed, all the people off him in this thread are exactly why I am so high on him.  Great value if he comes back to anything like the year before last. 

On the flip side, I spent 29 on him because I was desperate for a starting caliber PG halfway through a 14-team auction.  There goes all the value; now I am just hoping he plays well enough to warrant it.

 

 

Yes, sore eye.  He collided with Kawhi Leonard and had a huge gash on his eyebrow that required many stitches and he was not allowed to return to play.  People like you are ridiculous, Conley is one of the toughest cats in the league. I guess it's easy to be an internet tough guy.

Conley was/is one of the toughest guys in the league and that’s part of the problem.  He consistently played through lingering/chronic issues.  That was part for their mantra.  You can do that for a while but eventually it catches up to you.  For some of those issues the only cure is rest.  Shutting him down last season may have been bad for fantasy owners but is probably good for him long term.  At this stage in his career it would probably be wise for him to rest a few days now rather than the issue causing him to miss a few weeks later. 

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