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July Closer Thread 2018

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3 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

With Brach gone does Givens definitely get the first crack in Baltimore?

 

Yes

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58 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

With Brach gone does Givens definitely get the first crack in Baltimore?

 

No doubt. Not sure it's worth raping my ERA

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Great bounce back outing for Box 

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44 minutes ago, scottishguy said:

 

No doubt. Not sure it's worth raping my ERA

I agree with this Givens had had a rough season . 

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21 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Just some thoughts worth sharing.

Thoughts, dreams, either or.

 

Seriously though, either one of those two would be golden compared to Givens.  I have no idea what happened to him since he's been solid/really good up until this season, but I'm only picking up their closer if it ends up being one of those two.

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55 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Just some thoughts worth sharing.

 

Wright would be rather interesting considering he has no saves in his professional career, 1 hold, and 2 innings this year pitching in high leverage.  His hold came in the 6th inning.  Anything's possible in that pen, but he hasn't really been groomed for any high leverage role.

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Givens FIP is sparkling.

 

Hard hit % also down from last year.

 

Seems like he’s been the victim of a horrific BABIP that should regress soon and normalize.

 

LOB% will most likely rise some as well (extremely low for his K/9) and what we should be left with is a halfway decent CL on a bad bad team.

 

I predict 5-8 saves ROS with a 3.4 ERA and 1.2 whip

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1 hour ago, 6Kill said:

Givens FIP is sparkling.

 

Hard hit % also down from last year.

 

Seems like he’s been the victim of a horrific BABIP that should regress soon and normalize.

 

LOB% will most likely rise some as well (extremely low for his K/9) and what we should be left with is a halfway decent CL on a bad bad team.

 

I predict 5-8 saves ROS with a 3.4 ERA and 1.2 whip

 

That's certainly one way to look at it..... Another is:

 

xFIP = not so good (4.12)

 

SIERA = meh, okay.  (3.69)

 

Hard hit % is down but it's actually in line with his career numbers, so it looks like last year it was fluky high, not the other way around.

 

Soft hit % is career low.

 

LD% is high and above career avgs.

 

BB/9 back over 4.

 

So yes, his BABIP is high but his HR/FB is really low.  Looks like folks are hitting his stuff but not killing him, plus Givens has lost some command since last year (or it was fluky last year).

 

And here's the fun thing about relievers...... all those metrics, aren't statistically significant because the sample sizes may be too small.   Yea!  Relievers can be difficult to project b/c of the smaller sample sizes.

 

I have no idea what Givens is going to do.... he definitely has a live arm and has the most experience so I think he'll be given an opportunity but it's a flip of a coin to know if he'll rise to the occasion or fall on his face.  

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7 hours ago, dinhead said:

It looks like swarzak is the closer and not Gesselman for the Mets.

 

Out of the Mets' last 3 save opportunities, Gsellman has 0 despite being available to pitch in all of them, Swarzak has 2, and Lugo has 1.   Given that and his atrocious ERA/WHIP this year and for his career, I have a very hard time understanding why Gsellman is owned in any league.

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7 hours ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

so much for fry....lol

After Fry's blow up today, who is next in line for saves?

 

Other than Yates, most of these candidates to replace traded closers really suck.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Out of the Mets' last 3 save opportunities, Gsellman has 0 despite being available to pitch in all of them, Swarzak has 2, and Lugo has 1.   Given that and his atrocious ERA/WHIP this year and for his career, I have a very hard time understanding why Gsellman is owned in any league.

 

He should be on waivers except in 14 teamers most likely.  At one point in the season he was the clear next in line but hasn't been very good for at least 2 months.   Right now Swarzak is the best option (obviously) but who knows if he holds it or not.  I do think it will be up to him - meaning pitch well, hold job - but just doing that may be a difficult task.  I personally get a positive vibe on him holding but that means squat...    

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2 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

He should be on waivers except in 14 teamers most likely.  At one point in the season he was the clear next in line but hasn't been very good for at least 2 months.   Right now Swarzak is the best option (obviously) but who knows if he holds it or not.  I do think it will be up to him - meaning pitch well, hold job - but just doing that may be a difficult task.  I personally get a positive vibe on him holding but that means squat...    

Swarzak had a good season last year, I think he can hold it. 

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6 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

He should be on waivers except in 14 teamers most likely.  At one point in the season he was the clear next in line but hasn't been very good for at least 2 months.   Right now Swarzak is the best option (obviously) but who knows if he holds it or not.  I do think it will be up to him - meaning pitch well, hold job - but just doing that may be a difficult task.  I personally get a positive vibe on him holding but that means squat...    

 

Yeah, Swarzak sucks but I think based on usage the past week that Lugo looks next-in-line.  Swarzak does look like the best bet for saves right now, but I'm not 100% confident to say that it's not a committee between him and Lugo.  Given how Gsellman was used and how much he sucked in his last outing, it sure looks like Gsellman is not part of that committee.

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15 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

So many to choose from, so much garbage.  They're allllllll bad. Especially the one i took a chance on (fry.)

 

The one exception was Kirby Yates, who will provide elite ratios in addition to saves.  The Mets, White Sox, and Orioles relievers though are going to hurt you in ERA and WHIP even if they get you some saves.  LeClerc would be interesting if Kela is traded and he gets the job over Diekman.  Seems like a long shot though.

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10 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Yeah, Swarzak sucks but I think based on usage the past week that Lugo looks next-in-line.  Swarzak does look like the best bet for saves right now, but I'm not 100% confident to say that it's not a committee between him and Lugo.  Given how Gsellman was used and how much he sucked in his last outing, it sure looks like Gsellman is not part of that committee.

I don't think we can really say Swarzak sucks.  He's got a whopping  20 innings on the year.  Solid track record,  with a healthy dose of SAGNOF. Im in

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9 hours ago, 6Kill said:

Givens FIP is sparkling.

 

Hard hit % also down from last year.

 

Seems like he’s been the victim of a horrific BABIP that should regress soon and normalize.

 

LOB% will most likely rise some as well (extremely low for his K/9) and what we should be left with is a halfway decent CL on a bad bad team.

 

I predict 5-8 saves ROS with a 3.4 ERA and 1.2 whip

 

Just want to point out that Orioles pitchers have a league-worst .317 BABIP combined, because they have the worst defense in the league behind them. Much may not change on that front.

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9 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

I don't think we can really say Swarzak sucks.  He's got a whopping  20 innings on the year.  Solid track record,  with a healthy dose of SAGNOF. Im in

 

While I agree that this year is much too small a sample size I also think he's really only had one very good year (last).  Mind you I am saying this without looking at his career numbers at the moment but last year was the only time I recall him ever being on the fantasy radar (in holds leagues).  

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The Angels haven't had a lot of save opps recently. Is Parker still the guy to own in that pen ? He hasn't pitched great and his usage has been all over the place.  Then again, that sums up about everyone in that bullpen.

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8 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

That's certainly one way to look at it..... Another is:

 

xFIP = not so good (4.12)

 

SIERA = meh, okay.  (3.69)

 

Hard hit % is down but it's actually in line with his career numbers, so it looks like last year it was fluky high, not the other way around.

 

Soft hit % is career low.

 

LD% is high and above career avgs.

 

BB/9 back over 4.

 

So yes, his BABIP is high but his HR/FB is really low.  Looks like folks are hitting his stuff but not killing him, plus Givens has lost some command since last year (or it was fluky last year).

 

And here's the fun thing about relievers...... all those metrics, aren't statistically significant because the sample sizes may be too small.   Yea!  Relievers can be difficult to project b/c of the smaller sample sizes.

 

I have no idea what Givens is going to do.... he definitely has a live arm and has the most experience so I think he'll be given an opportunity but it's a flip of a coin to know if he'll rise to the occasion or fall on his face.  

Beautifully stated

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46 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

The one exception was Kirby Yates, who will provide elite ratios in addition to saves.  The Mets, White Sox, and Orioles relievers though are going to hurt you in ERA and WHIP even if they get you some saves.  LeClerc would be interesting if Kela is traded and he gets the job over Diekman.  Seems like a long shot though.

In my league yates was scooped up within seconds of the news breaking.he doesnt fit that bill though. Hes the clear cut,next in line guy who could have been on a team even as a set up man.  Fry on the other hand is like a cute dog that you brought home only to wake up and find everything in your house chewed up.

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