J.T. Marlin

Kevin Love 2018-19 Season Outlook

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Signed an extension. Now CLE's #1 option but still, his durability is the real risk.

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56 minutes ago, PAX said:

Signed an extension. Now CLE's #1 option but still, his durability is the real risk.

so is the heavy shutdown risk in h2h playoffs. love will crush this year but will it matter to you in h2h leagues if he doesn't play in the home stretch?

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On 7/2/2018 at 7:36 PM, My Dinner With Andre said:

How good is this Cavaliers team now?

 

Are they the 20 win team sans LeBron everyone said they were?

 

Or could an unleashed Kevin Love, surrounded by a mix of young talent and veterans, make some noise?

Probably be near dead last in wins, top 5 worst teams in league. 

 

Starting 5: Hill (trash - old af always injured), Clarkson (just trash), Love (beast but no defense and often injured), Nance (good) and either Nwaba or Osman probably (meh)? Ya, pretty terrible. 

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24/12 with 2.5 3pg.  Top 10 player if you’re punting FG and really THE center to target if you’re punting FG.  Otherwise a safe second round pick.  He is a shutdown candidate for H2H but should be really solid in roto.

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Why does everyone assume he's a shutdown risk?  That's not just a blanket statement you can put on every star on every bad team.  Only bush league franchises pull that crap (see:  Phoenix Suns and Eric Bledsoe).

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I bought the ticket to the vintage Love train. 26-12-3 easily.. He can play with out a "ball hogger" so much better situation than before. :D  

 

 

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8 hours ago, jmoney23 said:

 Only bush league franchises pull that crap (see:  Phoenix Suns and Eric Bledsoe).

 

Even your reputable franchises can do it when desperation kicks in and they see a chance at the #1 pick (see Spurs with David Robinson in like 96 or last year’s Grizzlies with Conley/Tyreke).

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20 hours ago, jmoney23 said:

Why does everyone assume he's a shutdown risk?  That's not just a blanket statement you can put on every star on every bad team.  Only bush league franchises pull that crap (see:  Phoenix Suns and Eric Bledsoe).

Because it's being realistic, and it has everything to do with how draft positioning works. If the Cavs are one of the worst teams in the league (which they have a chance at being, don't forget they struggled a lot last season WITH LeBron, and most of the remaining core is exactly the same) they will be incentivized to A.) Not risk Love's trade value with an injury during meaningless game B.) Get better draft positioning. Memphis was consistently a playoff team and look at what they pulled with Tyreke Evans the moment they sucked. Then you have Chicago who consistently made the playoffs, and last year had to be ordered by the league to play their veterans. Star players on super dominant teams and star players on crappy teams are all legitimate risks for early shut-down, and ignoring that will only do you a disservice. I don't think it should prevent you from drafting players, but around February you should know where the team stands and I'd start trying to trade them for players fighting for playoff positioning since they'll have zero incentive to sit those players. 

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1 hour ago, Judicious said:

Because it's being realistic, and it has everything to do with how draft positioning works. If the Cavs are one of the worst teams in the league (which they have a chance at being, don't forget they struggled a lot last season WITH LeBron, and most of the remaining core is exactly the same) they will be incentivized to A.) Not risk Love's trade value with an injury during meaningless game B.) Get better draft positioning. Memphis was consistently a playoff team and look at what they pulled with Tyreke Evans the moment they sucked. Then you have Chicago who consistently made the playoffs, and last year had to be ordered by the league to play their veterans. Star players on super dominant teams and star players on crappy teams are all legitimate risks for early shut-down, and ignoring that will only do you a disservice. I don't think it should prevent you from drafting players, but around February you should know where the team stands and I'd start trying to trade them for players fighting for playoff positioning since they'll have zero incentive to sit those players. 

 

Not only Tyreke but also Marc Gasol got "shut down" i.e. rested every other game.  

 

And by the middle to end of the year Love will have some kind of injury / multiple injuries and is more likely to be shut down.

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Love is going to have a killer year. Not Minnesota numbers but 20/10/2 on 44% is my expectation and he should not be slipping past the 3rd round of any draft IMO.

 

He could score more than 20. Everyone likes to say well he won't have Lebron passing to him but Lebron is so ball dominant that other stars seem to have trouble getting into rhythm when playing with him.

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51 minutes ago, greatestmetfan said:

Minnesota numbers on 25/14/3 on 44% is my expectation and he should not be slipping past the 3rd round of any draft IMO.

 

agreed

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2 hours ago, greatestmetfan said:

Love is going to have a killer year. Not Minnesota numbers but 20/10/2 on 44% is my expectation and he should not be slipping past the 3rd round of any draft IMO.

 

He could score more than 20. Everyone likes to say well he won't have Lebron passing to him but Lebron is so ball dominant that other stars seem to have trouble getting into rhythm when playing with him.

 

Ive always been a fan of his game for fantasy the only thing I worry about him though is injury and tanking. He has been very injury prone and with his now smaller body I’m not sure how he holds up over 82 with all the banging down low for defensive rebounds. I also don’t see him putting up MIN level assists anymore either. I still will target him but not pre-3rd 

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There’s not really a lot to say as we all know what he’s capable of.  22/11 with 3 threes, a couple assists, poor stocks and FG.  One thing I like about him is he’s probably going to be the best center for FT impact so he’s the best center for punt FG/To builds.  He can sort of singlehandedly win you FT because assuming your guards are typical guards that have 80+ he will boost you to 82ish.  If you compare him to say Towns they project to have similar rebounds/points with Love getting more 3s but less blocks. Ofc missed games are a concern but I’m willing to take that risk.  Even if you take him in the second round there’s still upside and you can probably get him even in the third so he’s a guy I’m actively targeting. 

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His durability has always been an issue. With Lebron gone he has even more responsibility now which can make him more vulnerable to an injury. Other than the durability/injury risk he should have his best season as a Cav barring no injuries. 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

There’s not really a lot to say as we all know what he’s capable of.  22/11 with 3 threes, a couple assists, poor stocks and FG.  One thing I like about him is he’s probably going to be the best center for FT impact so he’s the best center for punt FG/To builds.  He can sort of singlehandedly win you FT because assuming your guards are typical guards that have 80+ he will boost you to 82ish.  If you compare him to say Towns they project to have similar rebounds/points with Love getting more 3s but less blocks. Ofc missed games are a concern but I’m willing to take that risk.  Even if you take him in the second round there’s still upside and you can probably get him even in the third so he’s a guy I’m actively targeting. 

probably also the best center option for punt BLK builds, assuming he goes 1-2 rounds after jokic. 

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KLove fits the Punt FG% + Blks build. I have pick 11 then 14, so im looking to take PG13 at 11 then maybe KLove at 14, but it seemed to be too high for KLove. Its like picking him at his ceiling. Surely, i wont get him at pick 35. BBMonster projects him at rank 12.

KLove gives you the Pts/3s/Reb/FT% cats.

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6 hours ago, dragonballz said:

KLove fits the Punt FG% + Blks build. I have pick 11 then 14, so im looking to take PG13 at 11 then maybe KLove at 14, but it seemed to be too high for KLove. Its like picking him at his ceiling. Surely, i wont get him at pick 35. BBMonster projects him at rank 12.

KLove gives you the Pts/3s/Reb/FT% cats.

Too high at 14. Look for these instead: Embiid, oladipo, lillard. If all 3 are gone and you really want love then there are worse picks at 14 that you can probably make. 

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57 minutes ago, richg24 said:

Too high at 14. Look for these instead: Embiid, oladipo, lillard. If all 3 are gone and you really want love then there are worse picks at 14 that you can probably make. 

No chance any of those are around at pick 14 in any competitive league. Looking at round 2, unless you go with a gobert or Drummond there aren't that many great bigs so Love is fine at 14, but a slight reach. But the next tier down is like Gasol and Aldridge so I would say take love and hope he kills it!

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3 hours ago, Kamura said:

No chance any of those are around at pick 14 in any competitive league. Looking at round 2, unless you go with a gobert or Drummond there aren't that many great bigs so Love is fine at 14, but a slight reach. But the next tier down is like Gasol and Aldridge so I would say take love and hope he kills it!

Ad, harden, giannis, towns, lebron, jokic, Durant, curry, Kawhi, Westbrook..that's 10...the next few sometimes go simmons, pg13, that's 12. Its possible then that one of those 3 is available at 14, even if it's not probable. I've seen one of the 3 at 13 or 14 in a lot of mocks so I know it can happen in certain real drafts. I even said that if those 3 are gone there is nothing wrong with taking love at 14 but it's still a bit reachy given his tendency to get injured and a clear shutdown candidate for a lottery ranking cavs team

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In a 12-man league, I drafted 10 and 15. Took Lillard at 10, was hoping for Embid to fall to 15, and when Embid was gone, my choices were Booker or Love. I took Love.

 

Hoping for some old time Love!

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i got him with the 29th overall pick, which according to yahoo rankings, was a reach... yahoo has him at 35!!

 

criminally underrated for a player that was top 5 at his peak 

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22 hours ago, scienze said:

i got him with the 29th overall pick, which according to yahoo rankings, was a reach... yahoo has him at 35!!

 

criminally underrated for a player that was top 5 at his peak 

 

Three words people seem to be completely ignoring on this thread. He is now 30 and the "injury prone" tag is now firmly attached to his name after back to back seasons of 60 games. He'll be useful when healthy but injury and shut down are real with this guy. Cavs are going to stink. His FG% will drop without LeBron and a team basically void of scorers and guys that can create their own shots or even looks for others. Talk of love in the 2nd round is a recipe for disaster. In a punt FG build he is useful but that also comes with the caveat you're on your way to pointing blocks also. 3rd round guy for roto or any sort of balanced build and even then you're likely to be well frustrated with him over the season with injuries and DNPs

Edited by Jake the snake
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9 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Three words people seem to be completely ignoring on this thread. He is now 30 and the "injury prone" tag is now firmly attached to his name after back to back seasons of 60 games. He'll be useful when healthy but injury and shut down are real with this guy. Cavs are going to stink. His FG% will drop without LeBron and a team basically void of scorers and guys that can create their own shots or even looks for others. Talk of love in the 2nd round is a recipe for disaster. In a punt FG build he is useful but that also comes with the caveat you're on your way to pointing blocks also. 3rd round guy for roto or any sort of balanced build and even then you're likely to be well frustrated with him over the season with injuries and DNPs

I agree in part and disagree in part.  I'm somewhat disappointed I only have him in one league which is a roto league.  He's been going for more than I expected (high 30s) in all of my leagues.  If he's going for that much then I would rather have Horford or Vuc for $10 less who are more multi-cat producers anyway.  I like his outlook a lot but in H2H leagues with legit injury/shutdown risk I'm not paying almost $40 for him.  You could argue for drafting him then flipping him before ASB/before he gets shutdown, but people in my leagues aren't that dumb.  Now for roto idgaf about injures and will gladly pay $30+ for him.  If he plays 60 games that's still 3/4 of the games and that's good enough value.

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10 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Three words people seem to be completely ignoring on this thread. He is now 30 and the "injury prone" tag is now firmly attached to his name after back to back seasons of 60 games. He'll be useful when healthy but injury and shut down are real with this guy. Cavs are going to stink. His FG% will drop without LeBron and a team basically void of scorers and guys that can create their own shots or even looks for others. Talk of love in the 2nd round is a recipe for disaster. In a punt FG build he is useful but that also comes with the caveat you're on your way to pointing blocks also. 3rd round guy for roto or any sort of balanced build and even then you're likely to be well frustrated with him over the season with injuries and DNPs

 

 

why would his fg% drop without lebron? lebron was the sole reason he became a long distance spot up shooter...with lebron gone, he's 100% going to be in the paint way more, thus will have a higher fg%....just check what he did in minny. he was actually much more efficient pre-lebron. i think people tend to forget how bad lebron always hinders his teammates statistically.

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