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Luka Dončić 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Probably the most NBA ready player of his draft class. He's been a pro for a few years and basically carried Real Madrid to 2 titles this season, while also significantly contributing for Slovenia to win the Eurobasket title. All while still 18/19 year old. 6'8", about 230 pounds, can cover all positions from 1 to 4, but is best as PG. Great ball handler/passer. Superb PnR passer.

 

His passing game is flawless, especially considering his age. He's also a great rebounder and a solid scorer. If used right, he's a constant triple double threat. His PER-36 in Euroleague and ACB combined: 21/7.5/6.6(a). But keep in mind assist are much  harder to come by in Europe because of different stat  rule. He also played a full NBA season as far as number of games go and it was visible he declined a bit at the end of the season.

 

Carlisle already made it clear that Doncic/Smith/Barnes is the core and that Luka's best position is on the court, so the minutes will be there and will be one of the focal points of offense. Dallas is a great fit for him and I see clear ROY potential there.

 

 Looking just as his PER36, I think he could keep those numbers or improve them a bit. His percentages (.596 for 2P and .309 for 3P) should be higher, especially the 3P. He went from about 40 % two seasons ago to about 30 % this season, which is mainly because he became the focal point of offense, was often double teamed and his usage rate rised in general. He'll have more support in Dallas so I can see his % somewhere around 38 % for 3 and 58 % for 2. His FTs are somewhere in the 80 % range.

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Alright so for me he's definitely the most intriguing player in the draft and I can't wait to watch him play. I also agree that he could be ROY because he has such a unique well rounded skill set. It's kind of like Jokic meets Manu Ginobili. I see his number dipping to 15/5/5 from euro league to the NBA which is still very impressive for a rookie and we have a future euro star here IMO.

 

I see him struggling on defense because he's not the quickest guy out there. Guys like John Wall, Westbrook, even Jrue Holiday will blow by him so his biggest weakness will be defense. I don't expect any defensive stats unless he's better at reading passing lanes than I realize.

 

NBA players close out quicker so I expect to see his 3 point % stay the same and 2 point % dip as well. He's going to shoot a lower percentage than you think because in the NBA the players are bigger, faster, stronger. He's an extremely crafty player though so we might see some struggles early and him really start to adjust as the season goes on and in to next season.

 

I'm very high on this rookie and would maybe go for him in 6th-7th round depending on who's available.

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11 hours ago, greatestmetfan said:

Alright so for me he's definitely the most intriguing player in the draft and I can't wait to watch him play. I also agree that he could be ROY because he has such a unique well rounded skill set. It's kind of like Jokic meets Manu Ginobili. I see his number dipping to 15/5/5 from euro league to the NBA which is still very impressive for a rookie and we have a future euro star here IMO.

 

I see him struggling on defense because he's not the quickest guy out there. Guys like John Wall, Westbrook, even Jrue Holiday will blow by him so his biggest weakness will be defense. I don't expect any defensive stats unless he's better at reading passing lanes than I realize.

 

NBA players close out quicker so I expect to see his 3 point % stay the same and 2 point % dip as well. He's going to shoot a lower percentage than you think because in the NBA the players are bigger, faster, stronger. He's an extremely crafty player though so we might see some struggles early and him really start to adjust as the season goes on and in to next season.

 

I'm very high on this rookie and would maybe go for him in 6th-7th round depending on who's available.

Coming from you that is the equivalent of most people saying 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

I don't know what to make of Doncic. Athleticism is the most important trait for me in a guard and Doncic is not elite there. That really worries me. I get it that he put up numbers overseas, but that isn't the NBA. He is going to face better athletes every single night and the game is going to move at a much faster pace. I am not sold on Doncic in dynasty or redraft formats. 

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I haven't seen him play so to me its a big mystery.   The proposed 15/5/5 seems attainable.  I like drafting for stocks and not sure what he might avg in the nba, but I don't see it as a positive impact.  Let's say 6th-7th round and compare to other players who might be in that range.  I'd probably put him somewhere in the middle of that list.

 

Conley

Rubio

Porter

Turner

Teague

Schroeder

Nurkic

Batum

Ball

Kuzma

Ariza

J-Rich

Reddick

Barnes

Smith Jr

 

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This guy will be pure hype on draft day. I'm going to target him nonetheless. Curious how much money of my 200$ I have to invest for him.

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I've watched the guy really closely as living in Europe I follow Euroleague a lot.

 

So let's say that last season he played on the level that Bogdanovic played on his last season in Europe. Now the difference is Bogdan is close to a complete project while Doncic is 7 years younger and he can literally be a different player over summer. He is still learning the game and he is something we Europeans have never seen again. We are shocked with how a 19 year old is dominating top level Euro competition. No Gallinari was not like this, Bargnani was not like this, Milicic (sick comparison by people missing important context) was not like this, nobody has been like this at the age of 19. Nobody that ever played in Europe.

It's very good for him that he finds himself in a great environment, Dirk will definitely help him adjust and his team seems to be really high on him. Carlisle can be tough with rookies, but basketball-wise Doncic is nowhere as raw as Dennis Smith was last season for example so I believe he will at least get around the 30 minutes that Smith got. It won't probably be 35, but 30 should be ok. 

 

Now Bogdanovic got around 12/3/3, 45%, but Doncic is more of a stat magnet. Because of his size he is much better getting boards (also fighting more for them) and he has better court vision. Due to his lack of experience sometimes he takes bad shots that Bogdan avoids so I believe his % will be a bit worse than that of Bogdan's. He might also have issues with turnovers as his ball control is a bit more loose than that of Bogdan's, he cannot protect it as good as the Serbian. He is better at drawing fouls when attacking the basket though (as he has a much wider body) and that can boost his points average.

 

I believe something like 15 pts/5 rebs/5 asts that was stated above is the floor for this guy. My projection would be 16/6/5 with 43% fg, but seriously this guy can easily change a gear over summer and go to 18/7/6 or even more. It's this kind of guy that can keep surprising you. Lack of athleticism can be a factor for him not become a top star in this league, but I don't believe for a second that it can stop him from being a 20+/7/7 guy in the future. Look how Jokic makes everyone look like a fool. Luka is a wonder boy.

Edited by RipCity0
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4 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

I've watched the guy really closely as living in Europe I follow Euroleague a lot.

 

So let's say that last season he played on the level that Bogdanovic played on his last season in Europe. Now the difference is Bogdan is close to a complete project while Doncic is 7 years younger and he can literally be a different player over summer. He is still learning the game and he is something we Europeans have never seen again. We are shocked with how a 19 year old is dominating top level Euro competition. No Gallinari was not like this, Bargnani was not like this, Milicic (sick comparison by people missing important context) was not like this, nobody has been like this at the age of 19. Nobody that ever played in Europe.

It's very good for him that he finds himself in a great environment, Dirk will definitely help him adjust and his team seems to be really high on him. Carlisle can be tough with rookies, but basketball-wise Doncic is nowhere as raw as Dennis Smith was last season for example so I believe he will at least get around the 30 minutes that Smith got. It won't probably be 35, but 30 should be ok. 

 

Now Bogdanovic got around 12/3/3, 45%, but Doncic is more of a stat magnet. Because of his size he is much better getting boards (also fighting more for them) and he has better court vision. Due to his lack of experience sometimes he takes bad shots that Bogdan avoids so I believe his % will be a bit worse than that of Bogdan's. He might also have issues with turnovers as his ball control is a bit more loose than that of Bogdan's, he cannot protect it as good as the Serbian. He is better at drawing fouls when attacking the basket though (as he has a much wider body) and that can boost his points average.

 

I believe something like 15 pts/5 rebs/5 asts that was stated above is the floor for this guy. My projection would be 16/6/5 with 43% fg, but seriously this guy can easily change a gear over summer and go to 18/7/6 or even more. It's this kind of guy that can keep surprising you. Lack of athleticism can be a factor for him not become a top star in this league, but I don't believe for a second that it can stop him from being a 20+/7/7 guy in the future. Look how Jokic makes everyone look like a fool. Luka is a wonder boy.

Thanks for the insight. What do you project his defensive stats will look like when taking the step to the NBA?

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2 hours ago, bobcats81 said:

Thanks for the insight. What do you project his defensive stats will look like when taking the step to the NBA?

Well I guess we are talking about steals only as I don't see how the blocks can be more than 0.3-0.4. Not a great steals guy as well though, Bogdan is a better defender in comparison. I would expect something around 1 steal.

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14 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

Draft day - Doncic or Bogdan?  

(Bogdanovic fan here)

Bogi Bomb is a good player... BUT give me Luka all the way !!!

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13 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

I've watched the guy really closely as living in Europe I follow Euroleague a lot.

 

So let's say that last season he played on the level that Bogdanovic played on his last season in Europe. Now the difference is Bogdan is close to a complete project while Doncic is 7 years younger and he can literally be a different player over summer. He is still learning the game and he is something we Europeans have never seen again. We are shocked with how a 19 year old is dominating top level Euro competition. No Gallinari was not like this, Bargnani was not like this, Milicic (sick comparison by people missing important context) was not like this, nobody has been like this at the age of 19. Nobody that ever played in Europe.

It's very good for him that he finds himself in a great environment, Dirk will definitely help him adjust and his team seems to be really high on him. Carlisle can be tough with rookies, but basketball-wise Doncic is nowhere as raw as Dennis Smith was last season for example so I believe he will at least get around the 30 minutes that Smith got. It won't probably be 35, but 30 should be ok. 

 

Now Bogdanovic got around 12/3/3, 45%, but Doncic is more of a stat magnet. Because of his size he is much better getting boards (also fighting more for them) and he has better court vision. Due to his lack of experience sometimes he takes bad shots that Bogdan avoids so I believe his % will be a bit worse than that of Bogdan's. He might also have issues with turnovers as his ball control is a bit more loose than that of Bogdan's, he cannot protect it as good as the Serbian. He is better at drawing fouls when attacking the basket though (as he has a much wider body) and that can boost his points average.

 

I believe something like 15 pts/5 rebs/5 asts that was stated above is the floor for this guy. My projection would be 16/6/5 with 43% fg, but seriously this guy can easily change a gear over summer and go to 18/7/6 or even more. It's this kind of guy that can keep surprising you. Lack of athleticism can be a factor for him not become a top star in this league, but I don't believe for a second that it can stop him from being a 20+/7/7 guy in the future. Look how Jokic makes everyone look like a fool. Luka is a wonder boy.

While I do not agree with a lot of this post, I really appreciate you taking the time to write it. I love reading other people's thought process and insights. Thanks for taking the time and sharing. 

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7 minutes ago, hoopking said:

gonna reach him around 6th round. might go as high as 5th if everything gets efd up

Dude, if things are f*cked up for you after 4 rounds you need to prep more. 

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sorry for that. what i really mean is that if a lot of people from our league wants him, i might really reach at 5.

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9 minutes ago, hoopking said:

sorry for that. what i really mean is that if a lot of people from our league wants him, i might really reach at 5.

Sorry man, I am going to make one more comment because I am starting to loosely create my rankings. In no way am I attacking you here, and please tell me to shut up if you would like....so you are sort of saying what others do will dictate how you draft Doncic. That is basically saying you are going to counter punch rather than attack a draft. I find when you don't take a stand on your rankings that you draft off of then you get left with a team you really are stoked about 99% of the time. If this is a fun league and you want to own Doncic for fun with friends then absolutely draft him early and be excited about it. Fantasy is supposed to be fun.

 

If you are playing for money that you want to win then you might want a different approach. You can create projections of what you think Doncic will do and figure out what round value that is and draft it that way. Basketball monster is a great way to do this. If you think Doncic goes 19/7/6 this year with solid %'s and stocks and let's say that is a 28th overall ranking after plugging in BBM then draft him accordingly. Especially if you feel really confident that he hits that projection. In general, Doncic isn't going to be a guy that is going to be picked in a small range. His projections will be all over the place. Don't overdraft based on your projections, but don't use some ADP or mock draft as a guide because Doncic is going to go "early" and "late" and just depends on the league. Use your own numbers. 

 

I am not on the Doncic train at this time. I am open minded and I need to see him play more against NBA competition. But, this can most definitely result in a KAT type rookie season. KAT played pretty limited minutes at Kentucky and I remember his projections having a pretty big range. Those that projected him to play well drafted him "early" and were really rewarded for being right. I just want to see NBA game action of Doncic, even in the summer league or preseason, before I start telling myself where I am going to draft an international rookie. 

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Carlisle on Luka:

 

Luka Doncic is already working out in Dallas and Carlisle is impressed.

 

“Off of what I’ve seen over the last two days,” Carlisle told Eddie Sefko of Dallas Morning News “anybody who doesn’t jump on season tickets now is going to sorely regret it later, that’s all I’ll say.”

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I see that  athleticism is concern for some.    Jokic is such a great athlete, that is the only reason he is first rounder.   Or Dirk last season. Zero athleticism that still returned good value

Edited by Gile Pile
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1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

I see that  athleticism is concern for some.    Jokic is such a great athlete, that is the only reason he is first rounder.   Or Dirk last season. Zero athleticism that still returned good value

Yes, intellgence and actual skills mean very little in basketball. It's all about jumping as high as possible and running as fast as possible. This is why DJ Stephens and Tim Bowers are closing out stellar hall of fame careers with the kind of hardware that would make Larry Bird envious.

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On 7/3/2018 at 10:13 PM, thezing1 said:

Coming from you that is the equivalent of most people saying 2nd or 3rd round. 

 

I don't know what to make of Doncic. Athleticism is the most important trait for me in a guard and Doncic is not elite there. That really worries me. I get it that he put up numbers overseas, but that isn't the NBA. He is going to face better athletes every single night and the game is going to move at a much faster pace. I am not sold on Doncic in dynasty or redraft formats. 

 

To be fair Doncic is more of a SF and Carlisle is talking about playing him at PF also as mentioned above he’s 19 and is already 6’8” and 230lbs last reported and he’s been working out like a madman all summer per his social media. I don’t think he really needs to be as athletic as people think just because he is being called a Guard since he handled the ball a lot. He is a Guard in the same way Ben Simmons, Lebron, or Nikola Jokic are Guards in that there’s A 0-2” difference between these guyss and Doncic has a really wide frame for a kid his age. To put it in perspective at 19 Lebron weighed in at 6’8” 245lbs and he is the gold standard for the TE type point-PF, and Doncic is 6’8” 230lbs at the same age. I think like a lot of guys with similar games before him like Durant or Hayward he will move up more as he ages and puts on mass (KD looks rail thin but he’s sneaky strong). Jayson Tatum was the same height and age as Doncic last season but weighed 26lbs less, Simmons is 2” taller (also with lower body fat than most guys) and only 8lbs more. I am rambling on but I think Doncic will settle into more of a SF/PF role (especially if he grows another inch or two) as he continues to fill out his wide frame which is really important to keep in mind for dynasty/keeper leagues. I agree that his athleticism is worrying in the NBA for a Guard but I would be shocked if he plays primarily SG beyond his 1st year in the league. With his dimensions & skill set he’s basically the perfect combo SF/small ball PF.

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I'm just going by the eye test. Doncic looks like a future Top 30 Dynasty player for the next 10 years to me. He just has too many skills. Perfect for the so-called "positionless basketball". Like the Celtics play at times. A PG a Big and 3 Small Forward skill-type players........Dennis Smith Jr , DeAndre Jordan , Doncic , Harrison Barnes , a fifth player. Looks like a fairly decent starting line-up to me. Of course it depends on who the 5th starter is......

 

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I think he can be a Batum type who scores more and gets more assists.  Basically a shorter Jokic.  But yeah first season I think he's only shooting low 40's FG.  Not terrible but I wouldn't reach for him.  Still better than DSJ though.  He's basically a less athletic Lebron but starting out with a better shot.  Nice feel for the game, proven winner at all stages, and really good for his age.  Greatest asset is his assists, which I think will hit 10 easy.  Struggle a bit with FG pct, FT's very nice, 1 steal, 1 three (he seemed to be able to launch long threes so adjusting to NBA 3 pt line should be OK) or what not depends on the Mavs offense.  6-7 assists his first year.  

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9 hours ago, vnmslsrbms said:

I think he can be a Batum type who scores more and gets more assists.  Basically a shorter Jokic.  But yeah first season I think he's only shooting low 40's FG.  Not terrible but I wouldn't reach for him.  Still better than DSJ though.  He's basically a less athletic Lebron but starting out with a better shot.  Nice feel for the game, proven winner at all stages, and really good for his age.  Greatest asset is his assists, which I think will hit 10 easy.  Struggle a bit with FG pct, FT's very nice, 1 steal, 1 three (he seemed to be able to launch long threes so adjusting to NBA 3 pt line should be OK) or what not depends on the Mavs offense.  6-7 assists his first year.  

 

Damn, 6-7apg his first year and 10apg he will hit easy!? I hope you're right, that would be pretty rare air considering Lebron has never even averaged 10apg and I don't think a non-PG has hit 10apg in a really long time (if not ever), so I wouldn't expect that, although it would be really cool. 

 

I agree on the smaller Jokic though, probably not as efficient because most people don't realize but Jokic is actually one of the most efficient all-around shooters in the modern NBA (50%FG, 40%3PM, 85%FT is incredibly rare), but there's only a 2" height difference if Doncic doesn't grow anymore and I think they have a very similar vision. Must be in those Serbian genes, although I guess that would make Doncic 50% as good of a passer?

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4 hours ago, krupocin said:

Must be in those Serbian genes, although I guess that would make Doncic 50% as good of a passer?

It is not the genes, it is the coaching.  Former Yugoslavia, every team that played in the national league (either tier 1 or tier 2) had excellent coaching.  All the countries that succeeded (Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro,...)  inherited that. 

 

The emphasis was  on the fundamentals (individual skills and team play), especially in youth teams.   For top teams,  youth squads all played the same way: you don't take a time off on defence and you don't take bad shots. If you do, you won't play much.  And  Olimpija, Luka's first team,   was  (is) one of the top teams.  By the time Luka signed with Real Madrid at the age of 13 he already had fundamentals under his belt.  He was formed as a player, all that was left is to polish and improve those skills.  

Darko Milicic is another story, he never played for any top team before he joined NBA.  In fact, he barely played at all 

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On 9/9/2018 at 12:27 PM, linkr said:

Carlisle on Luka:

 

Luka Doncic is already working out in Dallas and Carlisle is impressed.

 

“Off of what I’ve seen over the last two days,” Carlisle told Eddie Sefko of Dallas Morning News “anybody who doesn’t jump on season tickets now is going to sorely regret it later, that’s all I’ll say.”

I am taking this with a huge grain of salt. The Mavs have basically tip toed their way around tanksville the past few years and have been lost in no mans land. They held out their early draft pick and have zero hype. Mavs tickets probably aren't much of a hot ticket these days.

 

On 9/9/2018 at 2:29 PM, Gile Pile said:

I see that  athleticism is concern for some.    Jokic is such a great athlete, that is the only reason he is first rounder.   Or Dirk last season. Zero athleticism that still returned good value

Jokic is being brought up a lot here. The difference with Jokic is that he is a 5 and his skill set is so far outside of what a 5's skillset is for 95% of the league. He masks his athleticism shortcomings by being a freaking wizard that other 5s just aren't used to facing and Jokic's game limits the skills of his defenders. But make no mistake about it, Jokic being a freak athlete would mean that his stocks, particularly his blocks, would be far higher. He is a first round talent for sure, but he would be in that top 1, 2, or 3 category with blocks.

 

People are saying Doncic is a 3 but they will play him as a 4. This is the case across basketball, right? I mean everyone that is a 3 is a small ball 4. And really massive 3's are being used as small ball 5's. So if we are just judging Doncic as a 3, or a wing, or whatever you want to call it, I am going to say that his game isn't that rare or unorthodox for that position. It isn't close to Jokic's game as a 5 and its rarity. And that is really my concern with Doncic. I get it that he has skill. I get it that he is really good at basketball and he is really high basketball IQ. But we are only talking about fantasy here. I have zero doubts Doncic will be a starter in the NBA. I have a ton of doubts that he will have the ability to be a top 25ish commodity in fantasy basketball. And none of this is hating on Doncic. It is just the fact that we have limited information on this guy. I just can't wrap my head around taking this guy this season in the top 50 with all of the unknowns. 

 

And if you think athleticism is overrated look just look at last year's rankings. The top tier or top 20 is filled with freaks. Jokic being the only real outlier, but I covered him already. Most of the top tier are freaks athletes with elite skill. A handful have elite skill and mediocre athleticism. Tough for me to point someone out that has elite skill and poor athleticism when you are looking at that top tier of fantasy players.  

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On 9/10/2018 at 3:48 AM, vnmslsrbms said:

I think he can be a Batum type who scores more and gets more assists.  Basically a shorter Jokic.  But yeah first season I think he's only shooting low 40's FG.  Not terrible but I wouldn't reach for him.  Still better than DSJ though.  He's basically a less athletic Lebron but starting out with a better shot.  Nice feel for the game, proven winner at all stages, and really good for his age.  Greatest asset is his assists, which I think will hit 10 easy.  Struggle a bit with FG pct, FT's very nice, 1 steal, 1 three (he seemed to be able to launch long threes so adjusting to NBA 3 pt line should be OK) or what not depends on the Mavs offense.  6-7 assists his first year.  

I think Batum is a really quality comp for Doncic.

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