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Luka Dončić 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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26 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

It is just the fact that we have limited information on this guy. I just can't wrap my head around taking this guy this season in the top 50 with all of the unknowns. 

I would just google it.  

I am old enough to  remember both of them, best comparison for Luka would be late Drazen Petrovic.  Lots of similarities how they both dominated competition from the early age. 

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

 

And if you think athleticism is overrated look just look at last year's rankings. The top tier or top 20 is filled with freaks. Jokic being the only real outlier, but I covered him already. Most of the top tier are freaks athletes with elite skill. A handful have elite skill and mediocre athleticism. Tough for me to point someone out that has elite skill and poor athleticism when you are looking at that top tier of fantasy players.  

Harden top 2,  not terribly athletic. Curry is a good athlete but it's skill that makes him top 5.

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6 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

I would just google it.  

I am old enough to  remember both of them, best comparison for Luka would be late Drazen Petrovic.  Lots of similarities how they both dominated competition from the early age. 

I should have specified. Obviously we have European game action. I thought that was assumed. We have limited to zero information on how his game translates against NBA athletes. 

 

This conversation will probably just run around in circles and then we will all see what he can do when the season starts. I am softening my stance a tad on his athleticism holding back his upside just because he might be combo forward and not a guard. You need to be athletic as a guard. You also need to be athletic as a wing. I don't know if he is going to be the next Doug McDermott. Luka obviously has a higher floor because of his distributing skills, but Doug McD was super skilled coming out of college but just lacked athleticism. Obviously, there is age difference, etc....but there is only so much athleticism hard work can create. 

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4 hours ago, kev777zero said:

Harden top 2,  not terribly athletic. Curry is a good athlete but it's skill that makes him top 5.

Harden is an athletic freak....the dude is a freaking brick sh*thouse that can't be moved when he drives the lane and strokes it from 3. Just because he is smooth doesn't mean he isn't a freak athletic specimen. 

 

Curry is the one player that I thought was above average but not elite athlete. But his elite skill level in different facets makes him a freak. He is better than a mediocre or average athlete. 

Edited by thezing1
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On 9/10/2018 at 8:17 PM, Gile Pile said:

It is not the genes, it is the coaching.  Former Yugoslavia, every team that played in the national league (either tier 1 or tier 2) had excellent coaching.  All the countries that succeeded (Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro,...)  inherited that. 

 

The emphasis was  on the fundamentals (individual skills and team play), especially in youth teams.   For top teams,  youth squads all played the same way: you don't take a time off on defence and you don't take bad shots. If you do, you won't play much.  And  Olimpija, Luka's first team,   was  (is) one of the top teams.  By the time Luka signed with Real Madrid at the age of 13 he already had fundamentals under his belt.  He was formed as a player, all that was left is to polish and improve those skills.  

Darko Milicic is another story, he never played for any top team before he joined NBA.  In fact, he barely played at all 

 

I was half joking when I said that about the genes in that post and while I totally agree about everything you said about coaching it would be crazy to say there isn’t a genetic component to the over-representation of Balkan people (or descendants of them) in sports like basketball, soccer, etc. if you look at European/American/etc. leagues. These countries mostly have around 2-6 million people each yet put out a ridiculous amount of high level athletes. I mean Croatia made the FIFA World Cup, Serbia made the last FIBA final, Djokivic just won yet again, etc. If Yugoslavia was still together their national basketball (Doncic, Jokic, Dragic, Vucevic, Bogdonavices, Saric, Nurkic, etc etc) and soccer teams would be crazy scary and Yugoslavia still would be smaller than most European powerhouse nations altogether (~15mil).

 

Although I think you could probably say the same thing about African Americans and considering I’m getting into super sensitive territory (even though I think these are all compliments!) I’ll stop now lol. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

We have limited to zero information on how his game translates against NBA athletes. 

this is true for every rokie, not just Luka.  Even  NBA teams are bad at this (look at all missed draft selections over the years), so fantasy basketball managers should take it easy. It is hit or miss. 

One thing that is sure: If you were good (or dominating) in euro competitions, you are going to be good  in NBA.  

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Doncic a 3 and a small 4??

No way. Doncic is a PG at worst at 2. He dominated in this position both for Real Madrid and for Slovenia.

I like the comparison with Drajen, but with one difference Doncic has worst 3p shot and better passing. 

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Shooting is what separates Doncic and Drazen for sure. Doncic may be a good shooter but Drazen was a virtuoso.

 

As for great euro players... well... not everyone translates well. Jasikevicius had problems, we're still yet to see Teodosic shining.

I get the point with how young is and how much potential Luka has. And I believe he'll succeed in the NBA but to be absolutely sure?... Not so fast :-)

Edited by slmroz
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15 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

this is true for every rokie, not just Luka.  Even  NBA teams are bad at this (look at all missed draft selections over the years), so fantasy basketball managers should take it easy. It is hit or miss. 

One thing that is sure: If you were good (or dominating) in euro competitions, you are going to be good  in NBA.  

Ehhhhh, I guess on your first point. I would venture to say that lottery teams miss on prospects because they fall in love with projectability of a physical specimen and forget to confirm that they actually have skill. I think this is just going to sidetrack the conversation so I am going to shift it back a bit. 

 

I think we are talking about 2 different things. I am focused on fantasy and I believe you are focused on NBA performance/real life basketball player. Dominating Euro does not mean you are going to dominate fantasy NBA. If you have overwhelming proof please provide it, and I mean that sincerely. You are very knowledgeable in the Euro players and I am always open to learning new things. I voice my stance of not having a stance/pumping the brakes until I gather more information, but that doesn't mean I am close minded on Luka (actually means the opposite). 

 

In terms of Euro to NBA transition the player I remember most is Ricky Rubio. Basketball people said Ricky's game would be better in the NBA because of the speed, athleticism and creativity of the NBA players. I want to say it was Magic that saw him and said he is going to get a crazy amount of assists just because the NBA game has way more passing lanes than the Euro game because of speed, athelticism, etc. and Ricky has the vision and IQ to create the lanes. Ricky always had enough athleticism and size to be fine to have his pass first game translate to the NBA, and it has. At this point I am searching for that type of analysis on Luka. I really wish Paul Pierce broke down Luka's game and translated it to the NBA and what he projects of the kid. Maybe he has, but I don't watch much TV so I don't know if he did. Or TMac. Or any of the recent wings that are TV personalities. Hell, I would even value Jalen's insights. 

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On 7/4/2018 at 4:13 AM, thezing1 said:

I don't know what to make of Doncic. Athleticism is the most important trait for me in a guard and Doncic is not elite there. That really worries me. I get it that he put up numbers overseas, but that isn't the NBA. He is going to face better athletes every single night and the game is going to move at a much faster pace. I am not sold on Doncic in dynasty or redraft formats. 

 

Two words:

1.Joe

2. Ingles

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On 7/4/2018 at 2:16 PM, RipCity0 said:

I've watched the guy really closely as living in Europe I follow Euroleague a lot.

 

So let's say that last season he played on the level that Bogdanovic played on his last season in Europe. Now the difference is Bogdan is close to a complete project while Doncic is 7 years younger and he can literally be a different player over summer. He is still learning the game and he is something we Europeans have never seen again. We are shocked with how a 19 year old is dominating top level Euro competition. No Gallinari was not like this, Bargnani was not like this, Milicic (sick comparison by people missing important context) was not like this, nobody has been like this at the age of 19. Nobody that ever played in Europe.

It's very good for him that he finds himself in a great environment, Dirk will definitely help him adjust and his team seems to be really high on him. Carlisle can be tough with rookies, but basketball-wise Doncic is nowhere as raw as Dennis Smith was last season for example so I believe he will at least get around the 30 minutes that Smith got. It won't probably be 35, but 30 should be ok. 

 

Now Bogdanovic got around 12/3/3, 45%, but Doncic is more of a stat magnet. Because of his size he is much better getting boards (also fighting more for them) and he has better court vision. Due to his lack of experience sometimes he takes bad shots that Bogdan avoids so I believe his % will be a bit worse than that of Bogdan's. He might also have issues with turnovers as his ball control is a bit more loose than that of Bogdan's, he cannot protect it as good as the Serbian. He is better at drawing fouls when attacking the basket though (as he has a much wider body) and that can boost his points average.

 

I believe something like 15 pts/5 rebs/5 asts that was stated above is the floor for this guy. My projection would be 16/6/5 with 43% fg, but seriously this guy can easily change a gear over summer and go to 18/7/6 or even more. It's this kind of guy that can keep surprising you. Lack of athleticism can be a factor for him not become a top star in this league, but I don't believe for a second that it can stop him from being a 20+/7/7 guy in the future. Look how Jokic makes everyone look like a fool. Luka is a wonder boy.

MAN str8 on point... 

Completely agree with you. Great comment

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On 9/12/2018 at 4:37 AM, thezing1 said:

I should have specified. Obviously we have European game action. I thought that was assumed. We have limited to zero information on how his game translates against NBA athletes. 

 

This conversation will probably just run around in circles and then we will all see what he can do when the season starts. I am softening my stance a tad on his athleticism holding back his upside just because he might be combo forward and not a guard. You need to be athletic as a guard. You also need to be athletic as a wing. I don't know if he is going to be the next Doug McDermott. Luka obviously has a higher floor because of his distributing skills, but Doug McD was super skilled coming out of college but just lacked athleticism. Obviously, there is age difference, etc....but there is only so much athleticism hard work can create. 

MAN you just CANNOT compare

Doug... who only played college basketball before NBA (amateur level sports)

and

Luka who won... nearly all at club and international level (Europe)

IMO there is much more sense in hyping proven club and international player like Luka... than some kid who only played sports at amateur level (college)... (Ayton, Beagly, Young...)

 

Edited by Stefan
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On 9/11/2018 at 6:14 PM, kev777zero said:

Harden top 2,  not terribly athletic. Curry is a good athlete but it's skill that makes him top 5.

Harden's ability to stop and go is near the top of the league, it's not traditional athleticism but it is what it is. 

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22 minutes ago, Stefan said:

MAN you just CANNOT compare

Doug... who only played college basketball before NBA (amateur level sports)

and

Luka who won... nearly all at club and international level (Europe)

IMO there is much more sense in hyping proven club and international player like Luka... than some kid who only played sports at amateur level (college)... (Ayton, Beagly, Young...)

 

Rarely someone watches Euroleague here, most of the people here are just youtube scouts.

They think the Euroleague is a college league. :)

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Just now, dekciw_1 said:

Rarely someone watches Euroleague here, most of the people here are just youtube scouts.

They think the Euroleague is a college league. :)

Yeah man exactly...

So many guys here are inadequately informed... it hurts my brain... :rolleyes:

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4:13

Soooooooo...

Dirk's impressed... Harrison's impressed... Carlisle's  impressed...

 

are-you-not-pvcbh9.jpg

 

 

Edited by Stefan

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12 hours ago, Stefan said:

MAN you just CANNOT compare

Doug... who only played college basketball before NBA (amateur level sports)

and

Luka who won... nearly all at club and international level (Europe)

IMO there is much more sense in hyping proven club and international player like Luka... than some kid who only played sports at amateur level (college)... (Ayton, Beagly, Young...)

 

Yeah, the college kids in America play in a league where they don’t even get paid! Those amateurs at Duke and Louisville don’t bring in enough revenue to be compensated. It’s anyone’s guess how Coach K can get his 7 figure salary. (I agree with your point Stefan, I’m just making a little joke about “amateurism”. I think Luka is going to be a stud). 

Edited by AndreSplash
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So.. 2013-14 Gordon Hayward numbers?

 

16ppg, 41% fg, 80% ft, 5 rpg, 5apg + ~2 threes and a steal?

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18 minutes ago, Mikhov said:

So.. 2013-14 Gordon Hayward numbers?

 

16ppg, 41% fg, 80% ft, 5 rpg, 5apg + ~2 threes and a steal?

 

I think so... yeah and 2.5 + TO

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On 9/12/2018 at 4:57 AM, paokmaniak said:

Doncic a 3 and a small 4??

No way. Doncic is a PG at worst at 2. He dominated in this position both for Real Madrid and for Slovenia.

I like the comparison with Drajen, but with one difference Doncic has worst 3p shot and better passing. 

 

His coach literally said that he would like to play him as a small ball 4 at times and sees him more as a SF, not that there’s really much of a difference between the 2 wing posirions anymote anyway. DSJ is their PG though not Luka, he didn’t play PG with Madrid or Slovenia (not sure if that’s what you meant) and handling the ball doesn’t make someone a PG automatically. 

 

Not sure why you’re comparing him to Petrovic either besides the fact that they were both really accomplished Balkan guys in Europe who came to the NBA. Fraser was 6’5” 200lbs in his late 20s Doncic is already 6’8” and around 230lbs and he isn’t even 20 yet. Petrovic in the NBA.was basically a classic SG and efficient scorer Doncic is def more from the modern ball handling wing/small ball forward. Not similar imo 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, krupocin said:

 

His coach literally said that he would like to play him as a small ball 4 at times and sees him more as a SF, not that there’s really much of a difference between the 2 wing posirions anymote anyway. DSJ is their PG though not Luka, he didn’t play PG with Madrid or Slovenia (not sure if that’s what you meant) and handling the ball doesn’t make someone a PG automatically. 

 

Not sure why you’re comparing him to Petrovic either besides the fact that they were both really accomplished Balkan guys in Europe who came to the NBA. Fraser was 6’5” 200lbs in his late 20s Doncic is already 6’8” and around 230lbs and he isn’t even 20 yet. Petrovic in the NBA.was basically a classic SG and efficient scorer Doncic is def more from the modern ball handling wing/small ball forward. Not similar imo 

 

 

Comparison is right... in terms of talent...

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5 minutes ago, Stefan said:

Comparison is right... in terms of talent...

 

Def agree, being half Croatian and growing up right near the Nets arena I loved Drazen he was my fav player along with Kemp and a few others when I was super young but I just don’t really see the comparison in terms of their games both in fantasy & real life. I actually personally think whoever suggested Hayward that’s a great comparison for both. 

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1 hour ago, krupocin said:

 

Def agree, being half Croatian and growing up right near the Nets arena I loved Drazen he was my fav player along with Kemp and a few others when I was super young but I just don’t really see the comparison in terms of their games both in fantasy & real life. I actually personally think whoever suggested Hayward that’s a great comparison for both. 

WOW that's great...

I wish I was little older at the time to watch him (Drazen) play... (born in 1991- Serbia)...

Sooo do tell me... what do you think... could have we (Yugoslavia) at least challenge USA 1992 Dream Team at Barcelona...  ?
Just for reminder... major medals we (Yugoslavia) won (at that time)...

1984 Olympic bronze, 1988 Olympic silver  

1986 World cup bronze, 1990 World cup gold

1987 Euro bronze, 1989 Euro gold, 1991 Euro gold

 

I'm trying to say we were reeeeeally talented squad...

Edited by Stefan

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On 9/16/2018 at 2:54 AM, Jake the snake said:

 

Two words:

1.Joe

2. Ingles

Ingles is an interesting name to bring up. His ceiling is 60. He has limited athleticism and he has really high basketball IQ. 

 

I am going to try and bow out of this thread until we start to see some actual NBA preseason footage. Too much speculation can cause that hype machine to get out of whack. 

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9 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Ingles is an interesting name to bring up. His ceiling is 60. He has limited athleticism and he has really high basketball IQ. 

 

I am going to try and bow out of this thread until we start to see some actual NBA preseason footage. Too much speculation can cause that hype machine to get out of whack. 

Just stating that unathletic guys can be successful. Joe is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is in the top 10 SFs (Top 5 in most) in every advanced metric. He  is a huge part of the jazz success. Doncic has WAY more physical tools than Joe and his basketball IQ is off the charts by all reports. athleticism isn't the only thing that matters. Joe inglés is a prime example of that. Of all the NBA Players he is probably the least likely looking player based solely on looks in the whole league, yet he is a very very effective nba player to the point of being arguably the most underrated guy in the league because he is smart, moves his feet and uses his body well on both ends. Sky is the limit for Doncic 

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