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Luka Dončić 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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42 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

Just stating that unathletic guys can be successful. Joe is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is in the top 10 SFs (Top 5 in most) in every advanced metric. He  is a huge part of the jazz success. Doncic has WAY more physical tools than Joe and his basketball IQ is off the charts by all reports. athleticism isn't the only thing that matters. Joe inglés is a prime example of that. Of all the NBA Players he is probably the least likely looking player based solely on looks in the whole league, yet he is a very very effective nba player to the point of being arguably the most underrated guy in the league because he is smart, moves his feet and uses his body well on both ends. Sky is the limit for Doncic 

Is it fair to assume that all the posters on this thread are talking about fantasy and not real life? Do you think the sky is the limit for his fantasy ranking? I just think there is a massive difference between the two (real life vs. fantasy) and this is a fantasy related forum. 

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4 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Is it fair to assume that all the posters on this thread are talking about fantasy and not real life? Do you think the sky is the limit for his fantasy ranking? I just think there is a massive difference between the two (real life vs. fantasy) and this is a fantasy related forum. 

People are talking about both and rightly so. Because real life is absolutely related to fantasy. If Doncic is successful in real life he is going to put up much better numbers than if he isn't and is having his minutes stripped for poor play. He gets dimes, rebounds, triples. His overall fantasy success hinges largely on his efficiency stats. But so does his real life success, just ask lonzo... 

 

If Doncic has decent efficiency he could easily be top 40-50 as soon as this season. If he struggles with his shot and TOs he could be outside the top 100. But signs and noises are pointing in the right direction

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4 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

People are talking about both and rightly so. Because real life is absolutely related to fantasy. If Doncic is successful in real life he is going to put up much better numbers than if he isn't and is having his minutes stripped for poor play. He gets dimes, rebounds, triples. His overall fantasy success hinges largely on his efficiency stats. But so does his real life success, just ask lonzo... 

 

If Doncic has decent efficiency he could easily be top 40-50 as soon as this season. If he struggles with his shot and TOs he could be outside the top 100. But signs and noises are pointing in the right direction

The difference is enormous between the two. Steals and blocks are so incredibly important for fantasy. It is tough to crack the upper tier of fantasy without stocks or being an elite scorer. I have zero idea of Europe to NBA steals projections, but I have not heard much about Luka's stock upside. I guess my point on the hype and maybe why I am not on it here is that the upside into the 40 range only gets realized with stocks....or the easiest and most likely path to 40 upside this year is with stocks.

 

I think this thread is beyond the point of Luka getting minutes or being a serviceable real life option for the Mavs. So switching to fantasy, if the range for Luka is 40-110ish, how do you feel about him costing you a pick in the 50-65 range? Just from looking at friend's draft boards in various leagues (for money), that is his range. In dyansty (for money) he went 20. The draft capital cost will probably increase as the season approaches.

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On 9/17/2018 at 5:09 PM, thezing1 said:

Is it fair to assume that all the posters on this thread are talking about fantasy and not real life? Do you think the sky is the limit for his fantasy ranking? I just think there is a massive difference between the two (real life vs. fantasy) and this is a fantasy related forum. 

Its funny you're implying he's not being realistic in a fantasy forum. 

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36 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Its funny you're implying he's not being realistic in a fantasy forum. 

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little f*cked up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to f*ckin' amuse you? 

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1 hour ago, thezing1 said:

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little f*cked up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to f*ckin' amuse you? 

Easy, Joe. Let's save fighting for real stuff.

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little f*cked up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to f*ckin' amuse you? 

 

1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

Easy, Joe. Let's save fighting for real stuff.

I may be wrong, but I believe it was just a joke. 

Edited by AndreSplash
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5 hours ago, Spyplane said:

Indeed. Hence the "Joe" reference.

Yea, most definitely a joke. Maybe 5-10 years ago I would say the fantasy community was laughed at, but these days there are millions of people that enjoy fantasy sports and thousands that use it to try and add to their incomes. We are all posting on a fantasy forum. I think this place is great because there are some really insightful people and I try to learn from them. In this case, Luka is going to be one of those "Lonzo" types where people are strongly opinionated. Time will tell, just like it did with Lonzo. Personally, the lines seem blurry between Luka being good in life and fantasy. But I guess that can be funny to some and that is cool. I would always rather have someone laugh with me or at me than rile them up. 

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Well Jose Calderon was top 50 at one point so lack of elite athleticism or an American basketball background didn't hurt him. Luka is way bigger and stronger than him, more talented and has better court vision. I think people forget that the mind is the most important weapon on the court.

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True, but there is also the consistent trend of rookies in the NBA not producing in relation to the hype they get. It is to be seen which trend wins out. 

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There hasn't been such an accomplished rookie in the NBA, euro defenses are much much much better than the majority of nba teams. He will be great, i can t imagine a better coach, except Pop, for him coming in. Not worth his current ranking but he will be great in 2 seasons.

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7 hours ago, thezing1 said:

Yea, most definitely a joke. Maybe 5-10 years ago I would say the fantasy community was laughed at, but these days there are millions of people that enjoy fantasy sports and thousands that use it to try and add to their incomes. We are all posting on a fantasy forum. I think this place is great because there are some really insightful people and I try to learn from them. In this case, Luka is going to be one of those "Lonzo" types where people are strongly opinionated. Time will tell, just like it did with Lonzo. Personally, the lines seem blurry between Luka being good in life and fantasy. But I guess that can be funny to some and that is cool. I would always rather have someone laugh with me or at me than rile them up. 

 

 

Luka's game is really fantasy friendly though. If he is gonna be good in real life it will definitely be on fantasy as well. Maybe he will be even better in fantasy than real life to be honest. The way Jokic is better in fantasy than real life.

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8 hours ago, teamd said:

There hasn't been such an accomplished rookie in the NBA, euro defenses are much much much better than the majority of nba teams. He will be great, i can t imagine a better coach, except Pop, for him coming in. Not worth his current ranking but he will be great in 2 seasons.

 

I wouldn't say euro defenses are "much much" better. I'd say the NBA defenses are much better than they look they are.

As for Doncic's hype - yes, I'm a bit on it. Unfortunately not to the point where I could think of getting him in any of my drafts.

Because with rookies there's always some kind of hype and there's always some kind of risk attached. And in every league happens to be a manager who doesn't care of analysis such the fb-ninja's article about rookies in fantasy. And such players are drafted around their ceilings or even higher.

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15 hours ago, Judicious said:

True, but there is also the consistent trend of rookies in the NBA not producing in relation to the hype they get. It is to be seen which trend wins out. 

True but he's not really a rookie. He's been playing pro for years and has shown he can put up numbers against NBA players.

Edited by Spyplane

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5 hours ago, slmroz said:

 

I wouldn't say euro defenses are "much much" better. I'd say the NBA defenses are much better than they look they are.

As for Doncic's hype - yes, I'm a bit on it. Unfortunately not to the point where I could think of getting him in any of my drafts.

Because with rookies there's always some kind of hype and there's always some kind of risk attached. And in every league happens to be a manager who doesn't care of analysis such the fb-ninja's article about rookies in fantasy. And such players are drafted around their ceilings or even higher.

For the record, I won't be taking him in re-draft but I did take him in Dynasty after lucking into a high pick from an old trade.

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1 minute ago, Spyplane said:

For the record, I won't be taking him in re-draft but I did take him in Dynasty after lucking into a high pick from an old trade.

 

Do you have a luxury to choose between Doncic and Ayton? :-)

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Doncic forum is very active but I have not found opinions in what round to draft him? I can say from my part: not earlier than 7th. Of course in redraft leagues H2H 9 cat.

Edited by apatas

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22 minutes ago, slmroz said:

 

Do you have a luxury to choose between Doncic and Ayton? :-)

I did. I picked number one. It's a "cool story bro" but the pick didn't cost much and was a very tough choice. The appeal of Doncic is that his game fits the modern NBA perfectly and his mind makes him a safe long term option even if he only lived up to his floor. He's come along at the perfect time given his particular strengths. In redraft the hype is deafening and so he may not be a high value pick in that setting.

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12 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

I did. I picked number one. It's a "cool story bro" but the pick didn't cost much and was a very tough choice.


I still can't decide which one is a better bet for dynasty leagues. For Ayton - there's always the "next KAT" label although the stat profile is not quite that good. Doncic on the other hand could become a "roto versatile" type of fantasy star. Anyway - for those drafting them in dynasties I can congrat. For those in redrafts - be careful :-)

As apatas wrote - 7th round is high enough. Maybe even too high for me in Doncic's case.

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1 hour ago, Spyplane said:

True but he's not really a rookie. He's been playing pro for years and has shown he can put up numbers against NBA players.

NBA rookies are NBA rookies. Bogdan, Rubio, Milos, Manu, Rudy Fernandez all had years of professional experience and still had to adjust to playing in the NBA. I'm not saying he won't be great, but historically there is a steep learning curve even for players who have international professional experience under their belt. 

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At yahoo he's listed at PG, sounds like he's playing SF/PF so he'll get those positions added and for redraft I like that type of swiss army knife. Would he fit into any specific build(s)?

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13 minutes ago, Judicious said:

NBA rookies are NBA rookies. Bogdan, Rubio, Milos, Manu, Rudy Fernandez all had years of professional experience and still had to adjust to playing in the NBA. I'm not saying he won't be great, but historically there is a steep learning curve even for players who have international professional experience under their belt. 

NBA rookie. Not a rookie to professional basketball.

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8 minutes ago, turner46 said:

At yahoo he's listed at PG, sounds like he's playing SF/PF so he'll get those positions added and for redraft I like that type of swiss army knife. Would he fit into any specific build(s)?

If your top player is a PG who 

 

1 hour ago, slmroz said:


I still can't decide which one is a better bet for dynasty leagues. For Ayton - there's always the "next KAT" label although the stat profile is not quite that good. Doncic on the other hand could become a "roto versatile" type of fantasy star. Anyway - for those drafting them in dynasties I can congrat. For those in redrafts - be careful :-)

As apatas wrote - 7th round is high enough. Maybe even too high for me in Doncic's case.

It feels like with Ayton people are chasing something he won't be unless he defies statics and historical data.

 

With Doncic people are getting in on something unique and so there is perceived risk because he's different.

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