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Andre Drummond 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Drummond started last season with just incredible improvements in free throw shooting and play making.   The AST improvements was sadly drastically cut back after the Griffin trade, but he still returned top 20 value.  He's good enough to be taken in 2nd round if you are punting ft, which like some others have pointed out, you might not want to do anymore since he's gotten so much better. 

 

Expect Pistons to once again run the ball through Blake Griffin, but Drummond might take a three pointer here and there and I really don't mind that.  He's not getting Marc Gasol kind of strokes over one summer but if he can do 31% and attempt less than 2 per game (basically Giannis level), then it will help slightly more than it hurts. 

 

Unfortunately, while he was often available in the 4th round at draft last season, I expect him to be projected into late 2nd, early 3rd round even by casual fantasy players and pretty much will no longer be a great value play.  As far as C's go I have AD at the top, then KAT/Jokic.  At the next level are Embiid/Drummond. 

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19 hours ago, Airball B said:

Drummond started last season with just incredible improvements in free throw shooting and play making.   The AST improvements was sadly drastically cut back after the Griffin trade, but he still returned top 20 value.  He's good enough to be taken in 2nd round if you are punting ft, which like some others have pointed out, you might not want to do anymore since he's gotten so much better. 

 

Expect Pistons to once again run the ball through Blake Griffin, but Drummond might take a three pointer here and there and I really don't mind that.  He's not getting Marc Gasol kind of strokes over one summer but if he can do 31% and attempt less than 2 per game (basically Giannis level), then it will help slightly more than it hurts. 

 

Unfortunately, while he was often available in the 4th round at draft last season, I expect him to be projected into late 2nd, early 3rd round even by casual fantasy players and pretty much will no longer be a great value play.  As far as C's go I have AD at the top, then KAT/Jokic.  At the next level are Embiid/Drummond. 

Well said my man. Didn’t own him last year because I didn’t execute any punt FT% but with his improvement he shouldn’t be exclusive to that strategy anymore. If you watch his IG stories he is really practicing on his 3s repeatedly, it seems like he will be given a green light to launch a few. Let’s just hope it doesn’t mess with his FG% as much.

 

With that being said an Embiid Drummond combo during the turn of the second round if you’re picking at that position could be nasty. You just need a Derozan, Gallo or Louwill to stabilize your FT%.

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5 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

Well said my man. Didn’t own him last year because I didn’t execute any punt FT% but with his improvement he shouldn’t be exclusive to that strategy anymore. If you watch his IG stories he is really practicing on his 3s repeatedly, it seems like he will be given a green light to launch a few. Let’s just hope it doesn’t mess with his FG% as much.

 

With that being said an Embiid Drummond combo during the turn of the second round if you’re picking at that position could be nasty. You just need a Derozan, Gallo or Louwill to stabilize your FT%.

 

Tough to stabilize FT% from the IR

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On 7/19/2018 at 9:51 AM, jay14bay said:

 

Tough to stabilize FT% from the IR

 

Embiid Drummond would be tough to stabilize but it is possible to salvage somewhat so you don't lose every week (or get last place in roto).   Maybe Booker / Derozan for 3rd/4th pick.  But then you're punting assists.  

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The cheapest (and I think the best) way to stabilize FT% is LouWill.  A lot of those other guys it depends on your seating in snake as to whether you get them.  But you can pretty much guarantee to get LouWill in the 5th round as I haven’t seen him get selected in the 4th round in any mocks.  Not to mention Drummond is overkill in rebounds and very solid in stocks.  LouWill is strong in the opposing stats of Points, threes, and assists.  So if I picked Drummond in the second and didn’t want to punt FT (bc it was roto or whatever other reason) I would look to pick LouWill in the 5th.  If I missed on him I would then move into punt FT%.  That way I either get a FT anchor for cheap or punt.  If you draft Drummond then overdraft DeRozan types then that completely defeats the purpose.  In drafting a punt FT big your hope is that you’re getting a discount of several rounds of what his adp would be if FT weren’t a stat.  If you overdraft DeRozan or whomever to make up for his FT, then you’re giving up that advantage voluntarily.

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I think Drummond may be drafted too high in a lot of leagues this year.
In 9-cat het ended the season at 22, but over the last 2 months playing alongside blake he was only 38th and even fell to 64th over the last month.

 

It's a small sample size but it does seem like playing with Blake hurts his assist numbers,

and though pretty good over the entire year his ft% did continue to drop every month as the season went on.

 

I may be wrong but drafting him with the expectation of getting another top 25 performance this year seems dangerous to me.

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I'm sorry could be a stupid question... but can someone show me how and were to find... let's say Drummond's stats before and after Blake's arrival... 
TNX !

 

EDIT: Or Drummond's stats when Griffin is on/off the court... 

Edited by Stefan

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The first question is easy.  Find out when Blake was traded there (Jan 28, 2018).   Then look at Drummond’s stats from Jan 28 on in BBM.

 

Edit: In that date range, from Jan 28th to the end of the season Drummond was ranked 30th but 6th in punt FT%.  So contrary to popular opinion Blake Griffin didn’t destroy Drummond’s fantasy value.  Rather, he stopped making his free throws.  I wouldn’t draft Drummond if I wasn’t planning on punting FT as I don’t trust his improvement from the line but I also don’t think Blake destroys his value.  

Edited by StifleTower2
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26 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

The first question is easy.  Find out when Blake was traded there (Jan 28, 2018).   Then look at Drummond’s stats from Jan 28 on in BBM.

 

Edit: In that date range, from Jan 28th to the end of the season Drummond was ranked 30th but 6th in punt FT%.  So contrary to popular opinion Blake Griffin didn’t destroy Drummond’s fantasy value.  Rather, he stopped making his free throws.  I wouldn’t draft Drummond if I wasn’t planning on punting FT as I don’t trust his improvement from the line but I also don’t think Blake destroys his value.  

 

And 200 corner 3's everyday before leaving gym... oh Dear God ... :(

I'd take Capela over him... easy money... :) 

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I would expect Drummond to take a dip in value with a full year along side Blake. Drummond's ranking last year was inflated by his passing skills. Prior to Blake's arrival, Drummond had 14 (of 47) games with 5 or more AST. The final 31 games he played with Blake, he only did this twice. He also had 0 AST 5 times after the trade, and only did that 1 time before Blake. If he is not contributing in AST, he is a strong contributor in 4 cats (FG%, REB, BLK, STL). He turns the ball over a lot for a big man, and is punting FT% for you all by himself. He will probably be taken too high in most drafts, bar a punt FT% build.

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10 minutes ago, benjwils said:

I would expect Drummond to take a dip in value with a full year along side Blake. Drummond's ranking last year was inflated by his passing skills. Prior to Blake's arrival, Drummond had 14 (of 47) games with 5 or more AST. The final 31 games he played with Blake, he only did this twice. He also had 0 AST 5 times after the trade, and only did that 1 time before Blake. If he is not contributing in AST, he is a strong contributor in 4 cats (FG%, REB, BLK, STL). He turns the ball over a lot for a big man, and is punting FT% for you all by himself. He will probably be taken too high in most drafts, bar a punt FT% build.

He averaged 15.5 points and 17 rebounds per game with a combined 4 stocks after Blake arrived.  He had 3+ apg prior to Blake’s arrival and 2 after.   So him losing an assist maybe (at most) drops him half a round in value. No one is drafting him for his assists.  

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

He averaged 15.5 points and 17 rebounds per game with a combined 4 stocks after Blake arrived.  He had 3+ apg prior to Blake’s arrival and 2 after.   So him losing an assist maybe (at most) drops him half a round in value. No one is drafting him for his assists.  

 

Per BBM he ranked 18 overall before the trade, and 33 overall after. The AST went from 3.9 to 1.7. That is a huge deal for out of position value. Stocks remained about the same with 3.0 before and 3.3 after. I agree no one is targeting him for his AST, but they provide a lot more flexibility in filling other spots, especially in a punt FT build, where many of the big men are a huge negative in AST.

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9 minutes ago, benjwils said:

 

Per BBM he ranked 18 overall before the trade, and 33 overall after. The AST went from 3.9 to 1.7. That is a huge deal for out of position value. Stocks remained about the same with 3.0 before and 3.3 after. I agree no one is targeting him for his AST, but they provide a lot more flexibility in filling other spots, especially in a punt FT build, where many of the big men are a huge negative in AST.

And I already said one post above that’s because his FT fell after the trade because he’s ranked 6th in punt FT% after the trade.  As I think it’s hopelessly optimistic to think he would maintain his FT I would never draft him unless I planned on punting FT.  

 

Losing 2.2 apg sucks bc more is better.  

 

That said he got 17 rpg per game after the trade which is more than 3x the median and around 2 blocks which is also more than 3x the median.  He also gets more the median in out of position steals.  Finally he has a positive FG impact and his points are at the median or above.  Those are the reasons why he gets drafted.  No one says I’m going to draft Drummond and hope to bolster my assists out of position, that was just a nice bonus, which apparently is going away.  The reason why you draft him and punt FT is because he gets the rebounds and blocks of 3 average players, plus scores, gets steals, and helps your FG.  You can make up your assists by overdrafting guards once you’re operating under the assumption that you have a big who gets 3x the median in rebounds and blocks. 

Edited by StifleTower2
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1 hour ago, Stefan said:

 

And 200 corner 3's everyday before leaving gym... oh Dear God ... :(

I'd take Capela over him... easy money... :) 

 

And he said he makes 200 threes. Lord knows how many he attempts.

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4 hours ago, Meadowlark said:

 

And he said he makes 200 threes. Lord knows how many he attempts.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhahahahhaahahhaahhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

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10 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

And I already said one post above that’s because his FT fell after the trade because he’s ranked 6th in punt FT% after the trade.  As I think it’s hopelessly optimistic to think he would maintain his FT I would never draft him unless I planned on punting FT.  

 

Losing 2.2 apg sucks bc more is better.  

 

That said he got 17 rpg per game after the trade which is more than 3x the median and around 2 blocks which is also more than 3x the median.  He also gets more the median in out of position steals.  Finally he has a positive FG impact and his points are at the median or above.  Those are the reasons why he gets drafted.  No one says I’m going to draft Drummond and hope to bolster my assists out of position, that was just a nice bonus, which apparently is going away.  The reason why you draft him and punt FT is because he gets the rebounds and blocks of 3 average players, plus scores, gets steals, and helps your FG.  You can make up your assists by overdrafting guards once you’re operating under the assumption that you have a big who gets 3x the median in rebounds and blocks. 

 

If you draft him in roto are you punting or trying to make up FT (or are you even considering drafting him in roto)?

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15 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

If you draft him in roto are you punting or trying to make up FT (or are you even considering drafting him in roto)?

 

15 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

If you draft him in roto are you punting or trying to make up FT (or are you even considering drafting him in roto)?

I have no problem punting FT in roto as I've won with it and seen others win with it.  Getting into the 70s will allow you to cash in most leagues.  If you're in 9 cat and get a 1 in FT%, then you really only need 9+ in the other cats to win the league.  As he puts you in good position in rebounds, stocks, and fg% you just need players to help you in the other four cats which is reasonable it you get Drummond at a discount.  If the stars aligned I would consider getting guys to shore up his FT% but I would mainly be getting them for Points, threes, assists, steals and if it so happened they allowed me to win a few FT points then I would consider that a bonus.

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i have the 12th pick in a h2h 9cat and im thinking of taking drummond/ben simmons at 12 and 13 for a strong punt ft/3pm build

Edited by MarcoPol0

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43 minutes ago, MarcoPol0 said:

i have the 12th pick in a h2h 9cat and im thinking of taking drummond/ben simmons at 12 and 13 for a strong punt ft/3pm build

Aren't you also punting PTS that way?

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1 minute ago, Kaboom said:

Aren't you also punting PTS that way?

 

that is what im struggling with

 

building around this ill have FG, reb, stl and blks locked up, punting FT/3PM and almost soft/tanking pts and assists to a point.

 

targeting guys like bledsoe/elfrid, dejounte/tyreke/collison i could stay competitive in assists though I think

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On 7/5/2018 at 7:09 PM, Saucy said:

 

The hardest stat to find when punting FT% is 3's and assits, and many of the top 3pt shooter can crush your FG%. Steph is elite in 3pt obviously but also among the very best point guards in FG%. If you get steph, and then another 3pt shooter with decent percentages (Klay, Gary Harris), you can afford to take high volume 3pt shooters later in the draft without worrying about your FG%.

Exactly what I did last year. Took Steph first round and Harris in the late middle rounds and rounded out my 3s with high volume gunners without worrying too much about fg

 

As for Dre, I'm optimistic and if I end up with giannis in the first round, I'm targeting him in the 2nd. If he even slightly improves his ft from last year he's borderline top 10 value. 

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16 hours ago, MarcoPol0 said:

i have the 12th pick in a h2h 9cat and im thinking of taking drummond/ben simmons at 12 and 13 for a strong punt ft/3pm build

go for it

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21 hours ago, MarcoPol0 said:

how do we think Casey impacts his value vs SVG?

 

Curious about this myself. SVG was pretty old school in regards to building around your big man.  

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