Gile Pile

Lonzo Ball 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Remember that Lonzo is coming off of an injury. 

 

He still looked lost within the offense or rather, his utilization was weird/bad, but give it some time. 

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14 hours ago, Pyschout said:

 But that sidebet was hilarious, was there a resolution to that?

 

We don't talk about that: the people that lost it report posts that bring it up to avoid admitting they were wrong.

 

I thin Lonzo will be fine this year, but it's concerning that they had him play off the ball so much.  I get the argument that LeBron is a better playmaker than him- LeBron is one of the best playmakers of all time.  But when they're both on the court, Ball as the playmaker and LeBron off the ball, either spotting up or in the post, is way better than LeBron as the playmaker and Ball either spotting up or in the post, right?  So I hope Walton thinks the same and is just getting Lonzo back into game form.

 

 

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The way Walton had him play over 40 minutes knowing his condition last year should have him committed.

 

Great talent, but just a muddy situation. At least his dad stopped talking. 

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Coach Walton is going to bring up Ball's minutes slowly (knee procedure). Sooner or later Ball will start. 

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I can't help but think that LeBron is going to be a sort of shadow coach on this team the way he was in Cleveland. And while I doubt he expects to win a championship this year, he would still want to be in the mix. LeBron and Rondo already seem like BFFs, and I can't think that LeBron would stay quiet if Ball pushed Rondo to the side at all when Rondo is still the better player.

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He’s not a good shooter so it’s difficult for him to compliment Lebron.  I didn’t think this would work but I’m not basing this off of one game.  It’s just that if rondo is starting with Lebron I’d have to assume he gets fewer than 25 mpg and it’s difficult to produce in that amount of time.  Then he can’t shoot so his efficiency is awful.  When he was playing his best last season he was producing draymond lite lines so he held top 75 value despite garbage percentages.  But if he’s only getting 25 mpg AND he’s horribly inefficient then idk if he can do better than 10 ppg/5 apg/4 rpg/1.2 spg/.6 bpg on terrible percentages.  While there is some value there is it really more than guys like Bazemore and Danny Green who go on and off the wire?  I drafted him in one roto league for $4 only because he was so inexpensive and I wanted him in one league just in case he did something.  Tbh he’s on my bench right now and idk if he will be truly rosterable all season. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

He’s not a good shooter so it’s difficult for him to compliment Lebron.  I didn’t think this would work but I’m not basing this off of one game.  It’s just that if rondo is starting with Lebron I’d have to assume he gets fewer than 25 mpg and it’s difficult to produce in that amount of time.  Then he can’t shoot so his efficiency is awful.  When he was playing his best last season he was producing draymond lite lines so he held top 75 value despite garbage percentages.  But if he’s only getting 25 mpg AND he’s horribly inefficient then idk if he can do better than 10 ppg/5 apg/4 rpg/1.2 spg/.6 bpg on terrible percentages.  While there is some value there is it really more than guys like Bazemore and Danny Green who go on and off the wire?  I drafted him in one roto league for $4 only because he was so inexpensive and I wanted him in one league just in case he did something.  Tbh he’s on my bench right now and idk if he will be truly rosterable all season. 

He was just a rookie last year. Most rookies can't shoot at all, and he has worked on his shot off the dribble last year. He's still hurt, I can easily see him being useless for the first couple months of the season. But I think he's going to learn to be a good shooter. Maybe it's this year. Maybe it's not for another year or two. But when he does figure it out it's going to win guys fantasy leagues.

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3 hours ago, Tom Chambers said:

But when they're both on the court, Ball as the playmaker and LeBron off the ball, either spotting up or in the post, is way better than LeBron as the playmaker and Ball either spotting up or in the post, right? 

I think I understand the logic here and in isolation when just looking at the skill differences it makes sense. I just think in a real game it might not actually be true. Lebron's gravity with the ball helps alleviate pressure from the rest of his team and makes the other 4 players on the court much more effective. 

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44 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

He was just a rookie last year. Most rookies can't shoot at all, and he has worked on his shot off the dribble last year. He's still hurt, I can easily see him being useless for the first couple months of the season. But I think he's going to learn to be a good shooter. Maybe it's this year. Maybe it's not for another year or two. But when he does figure it out it's going to win guys fantasy leagues.

If most rookies couldn’t shoot then by extension that would mean most college players can’t shoot as only the best college players make it to the NBA and that would mean most high school players really can’t shoot.  In fact, most guards can shoot well if they’ve made it into the NBA.  Lonzo is the rare guard who is skilled enough in other ways to make up for it.  I’ve seen lots of players improve their shot but they never fundamentally change who they are.  Eg A guy like Drummond has improved his FT but he will never be Dirk, Jason Kidd improved as a shooter but he never developed into a great one.  Lonzo will likely never be a good shooter.  Whether he can compensate in other ways remains to be seen.  

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

If most rookies couldn’t shoot then by extension that would mean most college players can’t shoot as only the best college players make it to the NBA and that would mean most high school players really can’t shoot.  In fact, most guards can shoot well if they’ve made it into the NBA.  Lonzo is the rare guard who is skilled enough in other ways to make up for it.  I’ve seen lots of players improve their shot but they never fundamentally change who they are.  Eg A guy like Drummond has improved his FT but he will never be Dirk, Jason Kidd improved as a shooter but he never developed into a great one.  Lonzo will likely never be a good shooter.  Whether he can compensate in other ways remains to be seen.  

except he shot well in school, he is definitely capable of learning

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5 minutes ago, panthers93 said:

except he shot well in school, he is definitely capable of learning

His FG% was good and his Ft% was poor.  He also has broken form.  But you’re correct that he’s capable of learning.

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33 minutes ago, panthers93 said:

except he shot well in school, he is definitely capable of learning

 

We had this whole conversation last year.  Someone says what you just said, then other people (like me) say "Well he got to the rim a lot more in college, that's why his percentage was so high, when he can't do that as easily against bigger and faster competition, his fg% will fall." Then people start betting that it won't and next you know all hell breaks lose.  Yes, he can learn to shoot, but for the purposes of this year- for the purposes of who he is, not who he could become-  I don't think that's gonna happen.  But I think that's beside the point, because even if it did, it wouldn't be playing to his strengths.  Or at least the strengths people drafted him for, which leads me to...

 

1 hour ago, mihs said:

I think I understand the logic here and in isolation when just looking at the skill differences it makes sense. I just think in a real game it might not actually be true. Lebron's gravity with the ball helps alleviate pressure from the rest of his team and makes the other 4 players on the court much more effective. 

 

You're not wrong, but you have to coach/game plan/play to your players strengths, no?  Lonzo with the ball is a transcendental talent when it comes to court vision and accurate, crisp passes.  That he also rebounds well is awesome but that's just a product of being on the floor.  You take that (his wizardry with the ball in his hands) away from him and who is he?  A smaller Andre Roberson with worse defense?  You have to play LeBron and Lonzo together some of the time, right, so having Lonzo run at least some of the offense is something that should happen.  But no one pays me for basketball xs and os.

 

Of course, I'm biased because as I said earlier in this thread, I think Lonzo in a punt points league is ******** amazing so I drafted him where I could in leagues where I was doing that.  But, naturally, he has to get minutes for that to happen...

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idk what all this is but I'm just saying I've seen no indication that lonzo is incapable of ever becoming a decent jump shooter as rudy seems to be implying

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17 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

You're not wrong, but you have to coach/game plan/play to your players strengths, no?  Lonzo with the ball is a transcendental talent when it comes to court vision and accurate, crisp passes.  That he also rebounds well is awesome but that's just a product of being on the floor.  You take that (his wizardry with the ball in his hands) away from him and who is he?  A smaller Andre Roberson with worse defense?  You have to play LeBron and Lonzo together some of the time, right, so having Lonzo run at least some of the offense is something that should happen.  But no one pays me for basketball xs and os.

Fair point. Like I said, I understand the logic and I'm not sure I know enough to say one way nets a positive over the other.

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44 minutes ago, j3rkthenurk said:

Had a decent game today.

 

Some guy in my league dropped him and he just cleared waivers. Very tempted to take him.

 

Rondo has a multi-game suspension coming.  Definitely pick up Lonzo for the next couple of weeks value alone.

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22 minutes ago, ChickenPorzinger88 said:

100% take

 

In my league I dropped him, he cleared waivers this morning... and I picked him back up.

 

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With Rondo out, this would be the perfect time for Lonzo to earn starter minutes and mesh with starters. Hopefully he secures the starter minutes while Rondo is out. 

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Make no mistakes, this is lonzo’s make or break season. If he can’t improve with a guy like lebron taking the spotlight of scrutiny away...he’s done.

 

His percentages for a point guard were absolutely horrific last year. He would be too much of a liability for any competitive team to rely on. One thing if he can’t shoot but those free throws, for a ball handler is absolute garbage.

 

They brought rondo in to help facilitate because he’s less of a liability and when they make the playoffs...I’d rather have James/rondo than James/ball

 

of course things can change and ball improves drastically this year but a repeat of his rookie season and he’s done.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jim james said:

Make no mistakes, this is lonzo’s make or break season. If he can’t improve with a guy like lebron taking the spotlight of scrutiny away...he’s done.

 

His percentages for a point guard were absolutely horrific last year. He would be too much of a liability for any competitive team to rely on. One thing if he can’t shoot but those free throws, for a ball handler is absolute garbage.

 

They brought rondo in to help facilitate because he’s less of a liability and when they make the playoffs...I’d rather have James/rondo than James/ball

 

of course things can change and ball improves drastically this year but a repeat of his rookie season and he’s done.

 

 

 

This is a bit extreme isn't it!? I mean if he has a mediocre year another team is going to take a chance on him for sure because he is a physical specimen. I mean the Knicks or magic just to name a few would give a lot to get there hands on lonzo even if he had a year similar to last. Just look at rubio and the guy on his team rondo. Both can run an offence and both have been notoriously bad shooters... Even with a broken shot he is too good a defender and playmaker and athletic point not to have a role in the modern game

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9 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

This is a bit extreme isn't it!? I mean if he has a mediocre year another team is going to take a chance on him for sure because he is a physical specimen. I mean the Knicks or magic just to name a few would give a lot to get there hands on lonzo even if he had a year similar to last. Just look at rubio and the guy on his team rondo. Both can run an offence and both have been notoriously bad shooters... Even with a broken shot he is too good a defender and playmaker and athletic point not to have a role in the modern game

 

If he can improve his free throws, I can see him being a good back up. If he can’t improve, I really can’t see a good team wanting him to handle the ball the 4th quarter of a close game. 

 

Automatic foul if he’s hitting 45% 

 

once his his athleticism is gone, you’re left with a guy who can pass but is a huge offensive liability.

 

having lebron take the spotlight away from him is a huge blessing in disguise for ball because he can try to develop without the scrutiny. 

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