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Jamal Murray 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Image result for jamal murray the blue arrow

 

After an early season debacle he got his s--- together and broke out for top 35-40 value in the last trimester while chiming in at #57 to end the season. Will Barton will move into the starting lineup this year which may not translate very well for The Blue Arrow. And with Paul Milsap healthy will he still be a 4th round pick as some "experts" suggest?

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It’s difficult for a guy who is mostly points to have fourth round value.  That being said Jamal Murray has enough peripheral stats to be top 50.  His line last season was roughly 16/3/3 with two threes and one steal and he was efficient enough for his position.  His value is only trending upward.  Can he hit 20/4/4 with 2.5 threes and 1 steal?  Idk but it will be close enough.  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s difficult for a guy who is mostly points to have fourth round value.  That being said Jamal Murray has enough peripheral stats to be top 50.  His line last season was roughly 16/3/3 with two threes and one steal and he was efficient enough for his position.  His value is only trending upward.  Can he hit 20/4/4 with 2.5 threes and 1 steal?  Idk but it will be close enough.  

 

don't forget about the .5 BPG :ph34r:

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It’s difficult for a guy who is mostly points to have fourth round value.  That being said Jamal Murray has enough peripheral stats to be top 50.  His line last season was roughly 16/3/3 with two threes and one steal and he was efficient enough for his position.  His value is only trending upward.  Can he hit 20/4/4 with 2.5 threes and 1 steal?  Idk but it will be close enough.  

Guards 21 and under that have matched Murray’s scoring and efficiency in first two years (Ht Ryan Blackburn)

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And that’s with rough starts to both seasons...

Edited by srb
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38 minutes ago, srb said:

Guards 21 and under that have matched Murray’s scoring and efficiency in first two years (Ht Ryan Blackburn)

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And that’s with rough starts to both seasons...

It’s an interesting comp for sure but I would be reluctant to extrapolate a player’s value based on performance early in his career. Players can flame out or exceed expectations.  That being said I think Murray will be fine.  

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I think everybody knows he's good. Hold on to him through the cold streaks or pitch offers to opponents to get Murray if he is on a cold streak.

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An ascending young player for sure and he played much better during the 2nd half of last season.   Biggest concern is that he has to compete for touches with a pretty loaded Nuggets team (Jokic, Millsap, GHarris, Barton).  Still, he made a really nice leap from year 1 to 2 and won't be 22 until February.  He could be one of those lower AST PG that makes up for the lack of AST by posting great %'s & 3PM and good REB from the PG position.

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Posted (edited)

BLUE ARROW BAAAABY !

I had Jamal as a 88th pick (7th round) last year from day ONE... rough start (first few months) but I really enjoyed owning him.

Edited by Stefan
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I love Jamal Murray I owned him last year and he gave me a big playoff push. I got him really late last year as well. My only concern is where is he in the pecking order while the Nuggets are fully healthy? Jokic, Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray.

 

Will the draft day price be too high for a guy who's probably a 4th option now?

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Not that this craters his value but man, the IT2 signing certainly lowers Murray's ceiling for 18-19.  Unless his ADP drops accordingly, I will definitely be passing on Murray for this season.

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Posted (edited)

Imo this will not have huge impact on Murray. I think impact will be minimal.  He is and should remain starting PG. His minutes are safe.IT will be 6th man and main source of offense for 2nd unit. IT will be basically playing backup PG / SG

Edited by Gile Pile

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On 7/10/2018 at 8:37 AM, greatestmetfan said:

I love Jamal Murray I owned him last year and he gave me a big playoff push. I got him really late last year as well. My only concern is where is he in the pecking order while the Nuggets are fully healthy? Jokic, Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray.

 

Will the draft day price be too high for a guy who's probably a 4th option now?

Jokic is the one that was hurt most by a healthy Millsap, iirc. Murray is a fearless shooter, he'll get usage regardless of who's around him. 

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He'll still get plenty of burn but I think there may be nights where his 4th quarter minutes may be cut if IT2 is hot, where its close to 50/50 or IT2 gets more minutes on some nights.  I think it definitely caps his upside.  

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Posted (edited)

IT2 is just a year away from having the best 4th quarter season of all time...of ALL TIME...(outside of wilt chamberlain).  If he's healthy or if he's close to being back at that level of play, there is no doubt he will be on the floor to close out games. 

Edited by hipriest69
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26 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Jokic is the one that was hurt most by a healthy Millsap, iirc. Murray is a fearless shooter, he'll get usage regardless of who's around him. 

This is the Jamal Murray thread and I don't like to get off topic but what you're stating is totally false.  From 2/27/18 - 4/11/18 (when Millsap returned to the DEN line-up after his lengthy injury absence), Nokic was the #3 per game 9 cat player and #2 per game 8 cat player per that stretch per BBM.  So, I guess the only way Millsap hurt Nokic is if your expectations were that Nokic would be the #1 ranked fantasy player....

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14 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

He'll still get plenty of burn but I think there may be nights where his 4th quarter minutes may be cut if IT2 is hot, where its close to 50/50 or IT2 gets more minutes on some nights.  I think it definitely caps his upside.  

I agree.  I think it’s almost self-evident that one of the top scorers in the league will cut into Murray’s minutes.  I don’t think it will completely tank his value but I like the way you phrase it: caps Murray’s upside. 

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8 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

IT2 is just a year away from having the best 4th quarter season of all time...of ALL TIME...(outside of wilt chamberlain).  If he's healthy or if he's close to being back at that level of play, there is no doubt he will be on the floor to close out games. 

Great point, unless this is just another season lost to injury for IT2 (or he's just washed at this point), he is likely is going to negatively impact the PT of other DEN Guards.  DEN can obviously play a small ball 3 G lineup consisting of 3 of the following (Murray, GHarris, Barton, IT2) but everyone's minutes are likely going to get pinched here by the IT2 signing.

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Chandler is gone, who logs 30 min  at  SF on this Denver team?  Hernangomez?    Barton most likely will get around 15 min at SF, which creates extra minutes at SG spot.  

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2 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

This is the Jamal Murray thread and I don't like to get off topic but what you're stating is totally false.  From 2/27/18 - 4/11/18 (when Millsap returned to the DEN line-up after his lengthy injury absence), Nokic was the #3 per game 9 cat player and #2 per game 8 cat player per that stretch per BBM.  So, I guess the only way Millsap hurt Nokic is if your expectations were that Nokic would be the #1 ranked fantasy player....

I think he was disappointing at the beginning of the year when Millsap was out, but as I stated, I didn't remember. Thank you for clarifying.

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3 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Chandler is gone, who logs 30 min  at  SF on this Denver team?  Hernangomez?    Barton most likely will get around 15 min at SF, which creates extra minutes at SG spot.  

Juan gonna break outtttt.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

Juan gonna break outtttt.

nah

Edited by Stefan

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Denver needs defense more than offense and I am puzzled with the signing of IT2 as an indirect replacement of Chandler.

 

Anyway this is a Murray blog. I see guys are worried about his usage but I think we need to remember that this is one of the best offense in the league and it will certainly continue, hence actually it is a good thing for the core guys on the team. 

 

In translates in to better efficiency with a welcoming usage rate (not too high to tire out key players like other teams did, see cousins). Health for a long season is key and nuggets rotation will be able to keep guys fresh.

 

Hence I don't worry about Murray, his skill sets fit into this team well and he will certainly produce. Not too worried about IT2 neither because this team already sucks in offense and they can't afford to put IT2 in clutch moments. 

 

 

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Murray's scoring ability is elite.  He will probably always be a sub 1.2 stl, sub 5.5 ast kind player, but if he had been playing on a team with less firepower he could probably be expected to produce Devin Booker like stats at this point, which would be 4-5th round value.  

 

All those offensively capable teammates are just too much.  I expect him to improve, but upside is limited by situation.  

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