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Jaw1

Targets in Rounds 4-7

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

It isn't like Burkhead is costing you much. I think its a low risk move that could have high upside. Even with Dion Lewis putting up borderline RB1 numbers Burkhead was able to carve out a solid role and put up decent numbers. Burkhead is also allegedly the favorite to begin the year as the GL back which alone would more than justify his current price. Michel is extremely talented but its unclear if Belicheck will turn him loose day 1 when they have competent options elsewhere. Additionally, one of the knocks on Michel is he has had fumbling issues which if they occur can easily get him sat and gives Burkhead an immense opportunity. There were also some rumors of Michel having a slight knee issue which if true could lead to Pats taking it easy on him at least early on. 

 

Also Belichick and co... are master game planners which hurts us in the fantasy world. 2 years ago Blount had like 1200 yards and 18 TD's but when they played a tough front 7 in Houston with a suspect secondary they didn't use Blount instead used more WR's and pass catching backs. Belichick is a master but selecting a RB this high is far from belichicking so maybe Michel is a generational fit for he and Mcdaniels system.

Edited by turner46
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2 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

Also Belichick and co... are master game planners which hurts us in the fantasy world. 2 years ago Blount had like 1200 yards and 18 TD's but when they played a tough front 7 in Houston with a suspect secondary they didn't use Blount instead used more WR's and pass catching backs. Belichick is a master but selecting a RB this high is far from belichicking so maybe Michel is a generational fit for he and Mcdaniels system.

I think the reason McDaniels ended up coming back to Pats is cause they basically promised him the HC position once Belicheck retires. I think selecting Michel was more of a future focused move (maybe one hand picked by McDaniels) for the post-Brady era. That isn't to say that he'll be useless now but I don't think just cause they took him in the 1st round they are going to hand the entire backfield over to him in his rookie year. 

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On 7/9/2018 at 7:47 AM, Jaw1 said:

I'm usually scrambling for RBs at this point but DeVante Parker and Corey Davis are two guys going in the later portion of this range who have the prototypical WR size, the high draft pick pedigree and project to be the clear #1 WR on their teams. 

I won’t ever go near Parker again after last year. Davis isn’t a clear #1 as he has Matthews & Walker to compete with for targets

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37 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I think the reason McDaniels ended up coming back to Pats is cause they basically promised him the HC position once Belicheck retires. I think selecting Michel was more of a future focused move (maybe one hand picked by McDaniels) for the post-Brady era. That isn't to say that he'll be useless now but I don't think just cause they took him in the 1st round they are going to hand the entire backfield over to him in his rookie year. 

 

Ya we all think something about the Pats backfield, but the reality is that none of us have a clue. If you really want to get involved in the Pats bf, just pick the back with the lowest ADP and hope for the best.

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15 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ya we all think something about the Pats backfield, but the reality is that none of us have a clue. If you really want to get involved in the Pats bf, just pick the back with the lowest ADP and hope for the best.

Amen - and if you did that last year, you ended up with Dion Lewis, who ended up having the best total output last year.

 

I also like Burkhead a lot this year.  On a per game basis, he outscored Dion Lewis, and would have been RB #18.  Last year, NE scored 16 rushing TDs.  Burkhead showed he has a nose for the end zone, and can also be effective in the passing game.  

 

However, right now James White has the lowest ADP of the backfield (unless you count Jeremy Hill)

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Amen - and if you did that last year, you ended up with Dion Lewis, who ended up having the best total output last year.

 

I also like Burkhead a lot this year.  On a per game basis, he outscored Dion Lewis, and would have been RB #18.  Last year, NE scored 16 rushing TDs.  Burkhead showed he has a nose for the end zone, and can also be effective in the passing game.  

 

However, right now James White has the lowest ADP of the backfield (unless you count Jeremy Hill)

 

Burkhead is def the value play here, they just signed him to a 3 year extension earlier in the offseason. Hes locked in with the goal line role. That's all you need in the Pats offense. 8 TDs in 10 games before getting hurt as well as being versatile in the pass game.  

 

with Dion lewis gone Michel can essentially take that role and Burkhead would still be secure with goalline. and who knows with him, as he had fumbling issues in college, it only takes one to get into the dog house.

 

Both RBs should be good but id def take burkhead at his current price 7.08 vs Michel at his 5.02 per FFC.

 

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Posted (edited)

Lamar Miller - Low end RB1 with Watson back.  Foreman Achilles will take time.

 

Chris Hogan - Should be better than Cooks was last year, for a lower price.  Upgrade in standard.

 

Rex Burkhead - Do you like touchdowns?

 

Sammy Watkins - I think he'll produce about the same as Tyreek Hill, for a much lower price.

 

Jimmy Graham - See Burkhead, Rex.

 

Pierre Garcon - Will rebound big with Jimmy.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Lamar Miller - Low end RB1 with Watson back.  Foreman Achilles will take time.

 

Chris Hogan - Should be better than Cooks was last year, for a lower price.  Upgrade in standard.

 

Rex Burkhead - Do you like touchdowns?

 

Sammy Watkins - I think he'll produce about the same as Tyreek Hill, for a much lower price.

 

Jimmy Graham - See Burkhead, Rex.

 

 

Agree with the exception of Burkhead.

 

(I mean, I like touchdowns, but...)

 

17 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ya we all think something about the Pats backfield, but the reality is that none of us have a clue. If you really want to get involved in the Pats bf, just pick the back with the lowest ADP and hope for the best.

 

This ^^^

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1 hour ago, cohenstantinople said:

(I mean, I like touchdowns, but...)

 

19 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ya we all think something about the Pats backfield, but the reality is that none of us have a clue. If you really want to get involved in the Pats bf, just pick the back with the lowest ADP and hope for the best.

 

This ^^^

 

 

I ain't afraid!

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On 7/10/2018 at 6:31 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

This sounds like an awful idea. 

 

Pats backfield is too unpredictable. Hill or White could end up leading it in fantasy points for all we know.

 

Sure they could..... if Michel starts fumbling/gets hurt AND Burkhead gets hurt again. Locking up the Pats backfield in rounds 5-6 is ridiculously effective IMO. Both are RB2 quality picks IMO. 

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3 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Amen - and if you did that last year, you ended up with Dion Lewis, who ended up having the best total output last year.

 

I also like Burkhead a lot this year.  On a per game basis, he outscored Dion Lewis, and would have been RB #18.  Last year, NE scored 16 rushing TDs.  Burkhead showed he has a nose for the end zone, and can also be effective in the passing game.  

 

However, right now James White has the lowest ADP of the backfield (unless you count Jeremy Hill)

 

Burkhead would have been the easy #1 producer if he didn't get hurt last year. If you drafted Gillislee, you knew the risks drafting a guy who flat out isn't very good and isn't a 3rd down threat in NE. 

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Posted (edited)

The patriots have sort of had the same game plan the last 2-3 years with running backs. Get a solid group of them, let them battle it out weeks 1-5, then ride the hottest hand the rest of the season while keeping 2 others moderately involved. I don't see that game plan changing this year, and I'd say it's a 65/35 chance between Michel or Burkhead, with Michel having the edge in talent, but Burkhead having the edge in being a guy that BB already trusts, and lack of fumbles (0 last year).

 

Also, it's worth noting that out of the 10 regular season games he played last year, Burkhead had a sub 4ypc in 7 of those games, and sub 3.2 ypc in 4 of those. He generally doesn't lose yardage, but he rarely breaks off for big plays either. I don't think this will factor in for any decisions this year, but aside from being efficient at the goal line, he wasn't anything to write home about last year. Clearly they aren't overly confident in him as a bellcow type since they used a 1st round pick on a running back for the first time since 2006, just after signing Burkhead to a 3 year deal. I think they'll bring Michel along slowly to start, but it will be a story like Lewis last year where by the halfway point of the season he's in the low end rb1/high end rb2 category.

 

Lastly, it's worth noting that Michel has been toted as excellent in blitz pickup, something that BB considers almost just as important as not fumbling, so I think that was a big factor in drafting him in the first place.

 

I probably won't draft either of them, because you won't be able to confidently start either til around halfway through the season depending on how things shape up.

 

A Pats player that I'll be targeting in late rounds is Jordan Matthews, and I'm not sure why he's not getting more hype. This is a guy that in his first three years posted 800+ yards every year (just shy of 1,000 his sophomore year) with Sammy Sleeves, Mark Sanchez, and Nick Foles as his qb. Just a slight upgrade with Brady behind center. He's only 25 years old, and runs mostly out of the slot where Brady loves to target players heavily. With Amendola gone, and Edelman coming off surgery at 32 years old, I do not understand the lack of potential sleeper hype around him. There's also a chance he gets cut in training camp, since this is the patriots after all, but I plan on throwing a flyer on him for sure. 

 

Just 2 cents from a pats fan that follows them pretty closely. 

Edited by SITG
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26 minutes ago, SITG said:

The patriots have sort of had the same game plan the last 2-3 years with running backs. Get a solid group of them, let them battle it out weeks 1-5, then ride the hottest hand the rest of the season while keeping 2 others moderately involved. I don't see that game plan changing this year, and I'd say it's a 65/35 chance between Michel or Burkhead, with Michel having the edge in talent, but Burkhead having the edge in being a guy that BB already trusts, and lack of fumbles (0 last year).

 

Also, it's worth noting that out of the 10 regular season games he played last year, Burkhead had a sub 4ypc in 7 of those games, and sub 3.2 ypc in 4 of those. He generally doesn't lose yardage, but he rarely breaks off for big plays either. I don't think this will factor in for any decisions this year, but aside from being efficient at the goal line, he wasn't anything to write home about last year. Clearly they aren't overly confident in him as a bellcow type since they used a 1st round pick on a running back for the first time since 2006, just after signing Burkhead to a 3 year deal. I think they'll bring Michel along slowly to start, but it will be a story like Lewis last year where by the halfway point of the season he's in the low end rb1/high end rb2 category.

 

Lastly, it's worth noting that Michel has been toted as excellent in blitz pickup, something that BB considers almost just as important as not fumbling, so I think that was a big factor in drafting him in the first place.

 

I probably won't draft either of them, because you won't be able to confidently start either til around halfway through the season depending on how things shape up.

 

A Pats player that I'll be targeting in late rounds is Jordan Matthews, and I'm not sure why he's not getting more hype. This is a guy that in his first three years posted 800+ yards every year (just shy of 1,000 his sophomore year) with Sammy Sleeves, Mark Sanchez, and Nick Foles as his qb. Just a slight upgrade with Brady behind center. He's only 25 years old, and runs mostly out of the slot where Brady loves to target players heavily. With Amendola gone, and Edelman coming off surgery at 32 years old, I do not understand the lack of potential sleeper hype around him. There's also a chance he gets cut in training camp, since this is the patriots after all, but I plan on throwing a flyer on him for sure. 

 

Just 2 cents from a pats fan that follows them pretty closely. 

 

Lewis and Burkhead were both RB2's last season when playing. I don't know why Michel and Burkhead wouldn't be RB2's this season. The fact that Burkhead signed that 3 year deal means he is definitely in their plans IMO

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1 hour ago, TPowell said:

 

Lewis and Burkhead were both RB2's last season when playing. I don't know why Michel and Burkhead wouldn't be RB2's this season. The fact that Burkhead signed that 3 year deal means he is definitely in their plans IMO

 

Because it is the Patriots. Hill could lead the team in fantasy points for all we know.

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4 hours ago, TPowell said:

 

Sure they could..... if Michel starts fumbling/gets hurt AND Burkhead gets hurt again. Locking up the Pats backfield in rounds 5-6 is ridiculously effective IMO. Both are RB2 quality picks IMO. 

 

So you are gonna start 2 Pats RBs every week?

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48 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Because it is the Patriots. Hill could lead the team in fantasy points for all we know.

 

When its the last time the 3rd string RB was relevant? I'll be surprised if Hill even makes the team.

 

50 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

So you are gonna start 2 Pats RBs every week?

 

Worked with both the Saints and Pats last season.

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Never trust the Patriots with an rb. Never ever never. U may get rb2 production out of 2 of them over the whole season, but good luck figuring out which one gives you rb2 production on any given week. Take Brady, take Edelman, take Gronk. Leave the RBS. 

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40 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

Never trust the Patriots with an rb. Never ever never. U may get rb2 production out of 2 of them over the whole season, but good luck figuring out which one gives you rb2 production on any given week. Take Brady, take Edelman, take Gronk. Leave the RBS. 

 

The myth that the Patriots backfield should be avoided or Belichick is out to screw fantasy owners really needs to die. Blount was a stud in 2016. Dion Lewis was a stud in 2015 and last season. James White rarely gets carries.

 

By all means dont draft RBs from (arguably) the best offense in the league and leave them for the rest of us.

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As mentioned, a lot will change between now and then, but if Watson's 45 ADP remains steady he'll be the steal of the draft. Barring some weird scoring there won't be a money league in America where he goes past 45.

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45 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

The myth that the Patriots backfield should be avoided or Belichick is out to screw fantasy owners really needs to die. Blount was a stud in 2016. Dion Lewis was a stud in 2015 and last season. James White rarely gets carries.

 

By all means dont draft RBs from (arguably) the best offense in the league and leave them for the rest of us.

 

No one is saying to avoid it. Just that you can't predict it.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

When its the last time the 3rd string RB was relevant? I'll be surprised if Hill even makes the team.

 

 

Worked with both the Saints and Pats last season.

 

Good luck.

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39 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

As mentioned, a lot will change between now and then, but if Watson's 45 ADP remains steady he'll be the steal of the draft. Barring some weird scoring there won't be a money league in America where he goes past 45.

 

That doesn't mean he'll be a steal. He's already priced near his ceiling. 

 

And he is definitely going past pick 45 in high stakes drafts. 

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57 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

The myth that the Patriots backfield should be avoided or Belichick is out to screw fantasy owners really needs to die. Blount was a stud in 2016. Dion Lewis was a stud in 2015 and last season. James White rarely gets carries.

 

By all means dont draft RBs from (arguably) the best offense in the league and leave them for the rest of us.

Dion Lewis has 234 yards rushing in 2015...not a stud that year. Blount was a stud in 16. Not as much in ppr, but still good. Problem is the 2016 blount is an outlier. Other years we got 4 backs and it is a pick on who to count on most weeks or if anyone can be counted on. 

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5 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

Dion Lewis has 234 yards rushing in 2015...not a stud that year. Blount was a stud in 16. Not as much in ppr, but still good. Problem is the 2016 blount is an outlier. Other years we got 4 backs and it is a pick on who to count on most weeks or if anyone can be counted on. 

 

Dion Lewis averaged 89 total yards/game in 2015 with 4 TDs in 7 games - That’s very good.

 

The formula is fairly simple, start the “Blount type” when the Pats opponent has a weak run d ... start the “Lewis/White type” when the run d is very good 

 

I love Burkhead this year to essentially fill the Dion Lewis role - and if the rookie screws up, Burkhead’s a league winner 

 

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