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Targets in Rounds 4-7

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Wow I guess I'll be drafting NE RB's this season apparently given some of the attitudes here.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Dion Lewis averaged 89 total yards/game in 2015 with 4 TDs in 7 games - That’s very good.

 

The formula is fairly simple, start the “Blount type” when the Pats opponent has a weak run d ... start the “Lewis/White type” when the run d is very good 

 

I love Burkhead this year to essentially fill the Dion Lewis role - and if the rookie screws up, Burkhead’s a league winner 

 

If you draft Sony, you need to cuff him with Burkhead.  If you draft Burkhead he’s cheap enough to work standalone.

 

If you draft Penny, it makes sense to cuff with Carson late, because he’s practically undrafted.

 

Guice doesn’t really need a cuff, because it’s assumed he’ll be mostly a 2 down back.  He doesn’t really have competition for that role...

 

- One thing to keep in mind is NE runs more than people think, but frequently as a committee.  That said, they’re also never taken a RB in the 1st round before...  

 

Taking Sony is high risk.  I’d rather wait for Burkhead (but not chase him).

 

My plan is taking a stud RB in round #1.  Then Penny and/or Guice.  Either way, take Burkhead, and either Carson (as cuff) or A. Jones.

 

If plan breaks down, there are 3 other rookies (Lions/Broncos/TB) that are available later.  

 

Edited by seanismorris

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Diggs, Cooper, Robinson, Thomas, Fitz, Jones .... It's a big reason why if I'm in a redraft (rare) I will be looking at leaving round 3 with two RB's and Aaron Rodgers. Much rather start off with Kamara and Freeman looking at those WR's in rounds 4 and 5. Sure beats going Hopkins and Adams and ciphering through the backs. 

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9 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Dion Lewis averaged 89 total yards/game in 2015 with 4 TDs in 7 games - That’s very good.

 

The formula is fairly simple, start the “Blount type” when the Pats opponent has a weak run d ... start the “Lewis/White type” when the run d is very good 

 

I love Burkhead this year to essentially fill the Dion Lewis role - and if the rookie screws up, Burkhead’s a league winner 

 

7 games is not a stud. It's a nice pickup off waivers. Except for Blount in standard and at times, when healthy, dion Lewis in ppr, the Pat's have frustrated. If you drafted Burkhead or Gilleslie last year you got nothing. The winner was waiver Dion Lewis and he didn't score more than 10 but once before week 10. He was quite good the rest of season- minus a stinker versus Miami in week 14. This year there's an even muddier committee.  The risk is u completely waste a pick with any of the Patriots RBS and since there are 3 or 4 vying for pt you can't really draft all of them. Especially since the Patriots top rb is an rb2 at best. Maybe it sorts out in preseason, but it didn't last year. 

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1 hour ago, Mattice1 said:

7 games is not a stud. ... Dion Lewis

 

But getting 7 games out of a Patriots’ RB is studly 

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8 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Diggs, Cooper, Robinson, Thomas, Fitz, Jones .... It's a big reason why if I'm in a redraft (rare) I will be looking at leaving round 3 with two RB's and Aaron Rodgers. Much rather start off with Kamara and Freeman looking at those WR's in rounds 4 and 5. Sure beats going Hopkins and Adams and ciphering through the backs. 

 

Diggs, Cooper, DThomas, Fitzgerald = all WRs who are now climbing into Round 3. There’s a good chance that only ARob will be in this 4-7 market, and I agree he’s a good get if the price is right. 

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9 hours ago, seanismorris said:

 

If plan breaks down, there are 3 other rookies (Lions/Broncos/TB) that are available later.  

 

 

From where I sit, these three teams are in awkward situations. On one hand, all three rookies might not only produce, but actually might kick arse. On the other, all three could be in time shares (or on the third hand might be related to backup roles if they either fail to produce and/or a veteran steps up).

 

i cannot see the Broncos clearly, and I’m suspect of anyone (besides Elway himself) who can

 

with Blount and Riddick on the Lions, both in different roles that threaten production significantly—and on a team that doesn’t scream “rushing attack”—owners beware.

 

I'm not going to suggest the Bucs are in the same boat as the Lions, but rushing in Tampa ain’t hot, and Sims was retained for his hands (despite cooling off), and Barber looked good enough last season. (I’m not going to suggest it’s similar to the Lions, only imply it ).<_<

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2 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

7 games is not a stud. It's a nice pickup off waivers. Except for Blount in standard and at times, when healthy, dion Lewis in ppr, the Pat's have frustrated. If you drafted Burkhead or Gilleslie last year you got nothing. The winner was waiver Dion Lewis and he didn't score more than 10 but once before week 10. He was quite good the rest of season- minus a stinker versus Miami in week 14. This year there's an even muddier committee.  The risk is u completely waste a pick with any of the Patriots RBS and since there are 3 or 4 vying for pt you can't really draft all of them. Especially since the Patriots top rb is an rb2 at best. Maybe it sorts out in preseason, but it didn't last year. 

Nothing from Burkhead? You got 10 games of mid rb2 production from a guy whose ADP was in the mid 10th. That’s a huge win for his owners. If you want to argue he’s injury prone that’s one thing but you can’t fault his production when healthy.

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11 hours ago, seanismorris said:

If you draft Sony, you need to cuff him with Burkhead.  If you draft Burkhead he’s cheap enough to work standalone.

 

If you draft Penny, it makes sense to cuff with Carson late, because he’s practically undrafted.

 

Guice doesn’t really need a cuff, because it’s assumed he’ll be mostly a 2 down back.  He doesn’t really have competition for that role...

 

- One thing to keep in mind is NE runs more than people think, but frequently as a committee.  That said, they’re also never taken a RB in the 1st round before...  

 

Taking Sony is high risk.  I’d rather wait for Burkhead (but not chase him).

 

My plan is taking a stud RB in round #1.  Then Penny and/or Guice.  Either way, take Burkhead, and either Carson (as cuff) or A. Jones.

 

If plan breaks down, there are 3 other rookies (Lions/Broncos/TB) that are available later.  

 

Cuffs are a waste of draft picks. I rather spend a late round pick on a player that has a legitimate chance regardless of injury to perform (Kamara). 

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5 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Nothing from Burkhead? You got 10 games of mid rb2 production from a guy whose ADP was in the mid 10th. That’s a huge win for his owners. If you want to argue he’s injury prone that’s one thing but you can’t fault his production when healthy.

Not sure how u got 10 games of solid rb2 production from Burkhead. Go look at game logs. He had 2 games over 10pt before week 10 and 2 games under 5 pts. He put up stinkers in weeks 11 and 15 and was a no show in week 16. If you had the guts to start him the 3 or 4 good weeks that he had between week 12 and 14, then congrats. But probably means u got 3 or 4 weeks of of stinkers tho. 

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Best available RBs until you have 4 of them.

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Cuffs are a waste of draft picks. I rather spend a late round pick on a player that has a legitimate chance regardless of injury to perform (Kamara). 

 

"I'd rather go back in time and select a 1st round RB in the late rounds"

 

Thanks for the insight.

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Cuffs are a waste of draft picks. I rather spend a late round pick on a player that has a legitimate chance regardless of injury to perform (Kamara). 

 

15 minutes ago, Roto4500 said:

 

"I'd rather go back in time and select a 1st round RB in the late rounds"

 

Thanks for the insight.

 

This. It's a pure hindsight argument. Cuffs turn into great quality RBs too if an injury opens things up. It depends a lot on league settings, but there's pletny of leagues where I'd rather spend two roster spots, one with a late pick, to just secure one position on my team rather than to take a flier. If the Cuffs not talented, that's one thing.. but taht's a different argument.

 

Two situations right off the top of my head that I'm very interested in cuffing around this range (havne't read much of this thread, don't know what's been discussed) are Alex Collins with Kenneth Dixon and Rashaad Penny with Chris Carson. Getting the latter player in each situation costs me little and helps me be far more confident that my 4th round pick will not return a negative value. 

 

Again, quality of cuff is important. A guy like DJ didn't have anyone behind him last year. but if the Cardinals had a legitimate back-up going into last year who became a 16 game starter, he couldv'e even finished higher than Kamara last year. He would've least been a solid addition. 

 

So yeah, you can pick and choose times you were right all you want. It's still going to be purely situational. Some situations, with some cuffs, I'm very inclined to bump up. If I get certain RBs in certain drafts, their Cuffs will bump up 5-10 RBs on my board. 

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2 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

Not sure how u got 10 games of solid rb2 production from Burkhead. Go look at game logs. He had 2 games over 10pt before week 10 and 2 games under 5 pts. He put up stinkers in weeks 11 and 15 and was a no show in week 16. If you had the guts to start him the 3 or 4 good weeks that he had between week 12 and 14, then congrats. But probably means u got 3 or 4 weeks of of stinkers tho. 

 

The guy played in 4 games before Week 10 (one he got hurt in). After that, he put up 4/6 games of over 15 PPG before not playing in Week 16. 

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Here's something, when he received double digit carries in games, he scored 15, 19, and 23 points. If he stays healthy, he'll be a RB2. That is pretty easy. 

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I have some major FOMO on Sonny Michelle in the event Brady builds up a steroid tolerance, shows his age and they start feeding the RB that could potentially be their future offensive centerpiece. 

 

Some one please talk me out of this.

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2 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

Not sure how u got 10 games of solid rb2 production from Burkhead. Go look at game logs. He had 2 games over 10pt before week 10 and 2 games under 5 pts. He put up stinkers in weeks 11 and 15 and was a no show in week 16. If you had the guts to start him the 3 or 4 good weeks that he had between week 12 and 14, then congrats. But probably means u got 3 or 4 weeks of of stinkers tho. 

That’s what a mid level rb2 looks like in fantasy football my friend. With a side of you trying to manipulate data. “2 games over 10 points before week 10”, of course ignores the fact that he was hurt 4 of those weeks and had his bye so only played 4 games. “Stinkers weeks 11 and 15” ignores that he left week 15 with an injury already having accumulated 9.1 points (which isn’t really a stinker but I digress). Again if you think he’s injury prone that’s a different conversation. 

 

Back to my first sentence about mid level rb2s, if you look at the guy directly above him (Duke Johnson), you find 5/16 games below 10 points with “stinkers” of 4, 6.9, and 3.2. And directly below Jordan Howard had 7/16 games under 10 points with games of .7, 6.5, 5.4, 3.9, 4.3, and 2.4. 

 

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1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

That’s what a mid level rb2 looks like in fantasy football my friend. With a side of you trying to manipulate data. “2 games over 10 points before week 10”, of course ignores the fact that he was hurt 4 of those weeks and had his bye so only played 4 games. “Stinkers weeks 11 and 15” ignores that he left week 15 with an injury already having accumulated 9.1 points (which isn’t really a stinker but I digress). Again if you think he’s injury prone that’s a different conversation. 

 

Back to my first sentence about mid level rb2s, if you look at the guy directly above him (Duke Johnson), you find 5/16 games below 10 points with “stinkers” of 4, 6.9, and 3.2. And directly below Jordan Howard had 7/16 games under 10 points with games of .7, 6.5, 5.4, 3.9, 4.3, and 2.4. 

 

My point on the Patriots is that who knows week to week. Burkhead in week one he was awful and not used, week 2 he caught 3 balls and had 2 carries. Week 3-6 he is out. If you started week 7 right after an injury, you are in the minority. And he wasn't good. 4 points. So most likely none started him week 8 when he had a good game. Week 9 was a bye. Week 10 was fine since he had a td. Week 11 was 9 touches and a fumble. I'm not sure how many people played week 12 after the fumble and he again was saved by a td. 13 and 14 are fairly good weeks, and 15 is bad again hurt. So maybe 5 worthwhile weeks all season. It's like that on the Patriots every year. One guy plays a little, another plays a little and game flow is completely random. With 4 RBS this year, it's a situation to stay away from imo unless u are getting them real late and understand it could be a pick that yields nothing...except frustration trying to figure who leads the committee from week to week. 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

That doesn't mean he'll be a steal. He's already priced near his ceiling. 

 

And he is definitely going past pick 45 in high stakes drafts. 

He averaged FOUR more points per week than any QB in the league last year. And you're telling me his ceiling is the 4th round? How can someone's ceiling be lower than stats they've already put up? I understand if you wanna say the likelihood of that happening again are slim due to defenses adjusting, coming back from injury, another injury, etc., but to say his ceiling is below what he did last year just doesn't make sense. Barring injury pre-fantasy drafts, he doesn't make it to 45 in one competitive money league with normal scoring.

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Cuffs are a waste of draft picks. I rather spend a late round pick on a player that has a legitimate chance regardless of injury to perform (Kamara). 

I generally agree with you.  Notice I don’t mention drafting Sony for myself.  I do plan on getting Burkhead.

 

In the case of Penny I disagree.  Carson looked like the real deal last year, and I can probably get him in the 14th or 15th round. If I don’t draft Penny, then Ballage is on my radar.  I’d rather get A. Jones if available late though...

 

Cuffs are useful, but they almost never make sense unless a rookie (unknown) is involved.

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8 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Cuffs are a waste of draft picks. I rather spend a late round pick on a player that has a legitimate chance regardless of injury to perform (Kamara). 

 

Generally agree 2015 Deangelo Williams was one who made sense after performing in the first 2 weeks when Leveon was suspended but many didn't hold and Leveon went down. That year in one league I was lucky enough to have the most FAAB at the time after drafting Julio, Gronk, Hopkins, Cooks... Bradford opened my season as QB under Chip but future MVP Cam Newton finished, I was heartbroken when I lost a game in the regular season but 12-1 and a championship was nice. That handcuff was relatively clear and was also seen in regular season work in weeks 1 and 2 though. I recall I think the next year Charles backers saying just grab Knile Davis late, that definitely didnt work, last year with Zeke many were on Mcfadden. Needless to say unless you've seen how it plays out with the TOP back out I agree that cuffing isn't worth it.

3 hours ago, taobball said:

 

 

This. It's a pure hindsight argument. Cuffs turn into great quality RBs too if an injury opens things up. It depends a lot on league settings, but there's pletny of leagues where I'd rather spend two roster spots, one with a late pick, to just secure one position on my team rather than to take a flier. If the Cuffs not talented, that's one thing.. but taht's a different argument.

 

Two situations right off the top of my head that I'm very interested in cuffing around this range (havne't read much of this thread, don't know what's been discussed) are Alex Collins with Kenneth Dixon and Rashaad Penny with Chris Carson. Getting the latter player in each situation costs me little and helps me be far more confident that my 4th round pick will not return a negative value. 

 

Again, quality of cuff is important. A guy like DJ didn't have anyone behind him last year. but if the Cardinals had a legitimate back-up going into last year who became a 16 game starter, he couldv'e even finished higher than Kamara last year. He would've least been a solid addition. 

 

So yeah, you can pick and choose times you were right all you want. It's still going to be purely situational. Some situations, with some cuffs, I'm very inclined to bump up. If I get certain RBs in certain drafts, their Cuffs will bump up 5-10 RBs on my board. 

 

Well said but imo that's less cuffing and more hedging your bets. A unclear situation so you grab both 2015 grabbing Coleman and Freeman and having Freeman go off, 2016 Murray and Henry although Murray was fairly expensive and Murray went off. Last year some went with Ingram and Peterson and Ingram was a steal at his ADP, should that owner have owned or picked up Kamara Yahtzee.

57 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I generally agree with you.  Notice I don’t mention drafting Sony for myself.  I do plan on getting Burkhead.

 

In the case of Penny I disagree.  Carson looked like the real deal last year, and I can probably get him in the 14th or 15th round. If I don’t draft Penny, then Ballage is on my radar.  I’d rather get A. Jones if available late though...

 

Cuffs are useful, but they almost never make sense unless a rookie (unknown) is involved.

 

Like I said above it may be more of a hedge then a cuff in a unknown situation. Often 2 RB's will replace the injured RB as what happened in Minnesota last year. This season the only true cuff I see is Tevin Coleman. I know he will be a work horse should Freeman miss time, maybe Ware to Hunt and maybe Murray to Cook but you cant be certain imo.

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3 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

 

Well said but imo that's less cuffing and more hedging your bets. A unclear situation so you grab both 2015 grabbing Coleman and Freeman and having Freeman go off, 2016 Murray and Henry although Murray was fairly expensive and Murray went off. Last year some went with Ingram and Peterson and Ingram was a steal at his ADP, should that owner have owned or picked up Kamara Yahtzee.

 

 

Well I mean I think the point of cuffing is hedging your bets. I only really have a problem calling someone a cuff when they're overpriced. I've only been through mocks of course, but I haven't had any problem making the investment on someone liek Chris Carson at their current price. If I can get a guy after I have most of my starters and some bench players, I would consider that player a cuff to Penny. The best Cuffs are the best hedges because the best cuffs are in the best situations. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Well I mean I think the point of cuffing is hedging your bets. I only really have a problem calling someone a cuff when they're overpriced. I've only been through mocks of course, but I haven't had any problem making the investment on someone liek Chris Carson at their current price. If I can get a guy after I have most of my starters and some bench players, I would consider that player a cuff to Penny. The best Cuffs are the best hedges because the best cuffs are in the best situations. 

 

I must understand it slightly differently. I believe cuffing is grabbing insurance for a top RB. Either Mcfadden or Morris to Zeke last year or both, Deangelo Williams to Bell in 2015 and 2016. The unclear backfields imo are hedging or I'm sure a better term I can't quite think of. In 2015 if a drafter wanted both options in the Atlanta backfield he took Coleman first then Freeman, by week 2 Freeman was the guy I wouldnt call that cuffing I'd call that some sort of investment lingo.

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2 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

I must understand it slightly differently. I believe cuffing is grabbing insurance for a top RB. Either Mcfadden or Morris to Zeke last year or both, Deangelo Williams to Bell in 2015 and 2016. The unclear backfields imo are hedging or I'm sure a better term I can't quite think of. In 2015 if a drafter wanted both options in the Atlanta backfield he took Coleman first then Freeman, by week 2 Freeman was the guy I wouldnt call that cuffing I'd call that some sort of investment lingo.

 

From my perspective I usually use the term cuff when there’s a wide range between one RB and the other that also comes with the concept that they are more two players guaranteeing one slot of production rather than two places for potential production. 

 

I think thats the the best way I can describe it. Dixon is a solid talent who’s differently skilled than Collins, but I don’t expect him to have much value if Collins works out the way I think. But for instance if I start a draft WR/WR and Collins is my one or near RB1, I consider Dixon a priority more so because I like the WR production on paper, where I’m worried about is RB, so I’m going to take the guaranteed floor and suffer the extra potential of one slot. And I consider Dixon a cuff because he’s still priced at a value where I can move him up my draft board significantly while still not drafting him to be a starter or even in many leagues a priority bench. 

 

Again, the importance of these things can be tremendously league and depth specific 

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