Jaw1

Targets in Rounds 4-7

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

From my perspective I usually use the term cuff when there’s a wide range between one RB and the other that also comes with the concept that they are more two players guaranteeing one slot of production rather than two places for potential production. 

 

I think thats the the best way I can describe it. Dixon is a solid talent who’s differently skilled than Collins, but I don’t expect him to have much value if Collins works out the way I think. But for instance if I start a draft WR/WR and Collins is my one or near RB1, I consider Dixon a priority more so because I like the WR production on paper, where I’m worried about is RB, so I’m going to take the guaranteed floor and suffer the extra potential of one slot. And I consider Dixon a cuff because he’s still priced at a value where I can move him up my draft board significantly while still not drafting him to be a starter or even in many leagues a priority bench. 

 

Again, the importance of these things can be tremendously league and depth specific 

 

Yeah your two examples are cuffs, I didn't look into them closely and thought they were much more closer together, my apologies.

 

PS-Thank you so much for your baseball work!!! This and last year!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Roto4500 said:

 

"I'd rather go back in time and select a 1st round RB in the late rounds"

 

Thanks for the insight.

“I rather draft a running back on talent not on requiring someone else to get injured in order for them to perform.»

 

Kamara is the first example that I thought of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

My point on the Patriots is that who knows week to week. Burkhead in week one he was awful and not used, week 2 he caught 3 balls and had 2 carries. Week 3-6 he is out. If you started week 7 right after an injury, you are in the minority. And he wasn't good. 4 points. So most likely none started him week 8 when he had a good game. Week 9 was a bye. Week 10 was fine since he had a td. Week 11 was 9 touches and a fumble. I'm not sure how many people played week 12 after the fumble and he again was saved by a td. 13 and 14 are fairly good weeks, and 15 is bad again hurt. So maybe 5 worthwhile weeks all season. It's like that on the Patriots every year. One guy plays a little, another plays a little and game flow is completely random. With 4 RBS this year, it's a situation to stay away from imo unless u are getting them real late and understand it could be a pick that yields nothing...except frustration trying to figure who leads the committee from week to week. 

I understand what you’re saying it just isn’t true, or at least it isn’t true that it applied to Burkhead more so than any other rb that averaged 13 ish points per game. I already demonstrated that from 2017 by showing Duke Johnson’s and Jordan Howard’s stats. If you go back to 2016 you have Forte who averaged the same 13.1 ppg as Burkhead in 14 games he had 7 under 10 ppg. Frank Gore is another from 2016 who averaged 13.4 ppg and he also had 7 under 10 in 16 games. Lamar Miller was at 13.7 had 5/14 under. Crowell at 12.8 had 6/16 under. If you want to blame inconsistent production on the Pats or game flow or the wind go right ahead but it wasn’t any more true for Burkhead than it was for other players who averaged around the same as he did. 

 

Edit to add- lol at benching a guy coming off 15.3, 15.3, 7.7, because he had his first fumble of the year that he didn’t even lose. And he scored twice week 12 on his way to 19.3 points so it was his 2 tds that actually “saved” him. Then your “fairly good” weeks 13 and 14 saw him score 24.3 and 16.3 which are rb1 numbers. Yeah I’d take that from a dude drafted in the mid 10th.

Edited by Bmore86

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

“I rather draft a running back on talent not on requiring someone else to get injured in order for them to perform.»

 

Kamara is the first example that I thought of.

Ballage is my Kamara for this year.  I may or may not take him in the draft, but I’ll be watching closely.

 

I picked on Kamara week 2 on waiver... I never believed AP was the answer.

 

For Miami the situation isn’t set in stone.  Ballage is like Kamara in that he didn’t show much in college besides potential.

 

If I do draft Ballage, i’ll be doing the reverse of last year.  (I drafted Foreman, but swapped him for Kamara).  I might swap Ballage for Foreman after a few weeks if Ballage doesn’t impress.

 

Dixon is also on the radar.  He costs nothing to draft and stash for a few weeks.  It sounds like the team wants Dixon to be the guy, hopefully we see more in the preseason.  J. Allen was no slouch either... not my favorite backfield.

 

Dixon, Ballage, and Foreman all supposedly have talent.  I avoid middling talent even if the situation is good (M. Gordon, Miller).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

Dixon is also on the radar.  He costs nothing to draft and stash for a few weeks.  It sounds like the team wants Dixon to be the guy, hopefully we see more in the preseason.  J. Allen was no slouch either... not my favorite backfield.

Is this the consensus? My belief from talking with people from the Baltimore area and seeing reports is that this is Alex Collins’ backfield. 

 

This is is the first positional breakdown I could find from the Baltimore Sun:

 

Collins, who ended last season ranked 11th in the league in rushing with 973 yards, no longer has to worry as much about sharing carries. He enters camp as the favorite to open the regular season as the No. 1 running back.

 

He does go on to explain how Dixon could earn his way into more PT, but to me this is Collins job and I really like this backfield personally.

 

And don’t get me wrong—- I really like Dixon too. I like getting both in drafts to be honest, because I don’t think this is a split backfield personally. I think they run Collins and if it doesn’t work they move to Dixon. I don’t think they have an ugly split personally. I mean it’s more likely than Lev getting an ugly split.... but I like the potential workload for Collins, and don’t think the “ideal” for the Ravens is that Dixon just steals the backfield

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Collins headed into 2018.

 

As of today I like about 6 other RB's being drafted 4-7 more though. 

 

Naming them from round 7 to Alex Collins ADP in round 4:

 

Marlon Mack 

Tarik Cohen

Ronald Jones 

Lamar Miller 

Mark Ingram 

Kenyon Drake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I like Collins headed into 2018.

 

As of today I like about 6 other RB's being drafted 4-7 more though. 

 

Naming them from round 7 to Alex Collins ADP in round 4:

 

Marlon Mack 

Tarik Cohen

Ronald Jones 

Lamar Miller 

Mark Ingram 

Kenyon Drake

 

Personally, I'm pretty close to taking Collins over the pack. And I do like most of the backs mentioned. Mack/Jones I don't believe are as talented or have shown to be as talented as Collins did last year. I mean obviously one is a rookie, but it's not a rookei I was a particular fan of. Too many mouths to feed and too much of a potentially infrequent for me to take Tarik, even in 1/2 point and probably full point PPR. The only Bear I really like in fantasy, as a fan who follows the team closely, is Jordan Howard. I'm not too high on anyone else. I'm not a fan of a lot of aspects of Miami, the CS to say the least, and I'm just not as confident in Drake as I am Collins. 

 

Miller and Ingram are the two that are really close. Miller I like the role better... but almost like the talent less. Ingram in 16 games would be higher. The suspension makes it more league dependent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Personally, I'm pretty close to taking Collins over the pack. And I do like most of the backs mentioned. Mack/Jones I don't believe are as talented or have shown to be as talented as Collins did last year. I mean obviously one is a rookie, but it's not a rookei I was a particular fan of. Too many mouths to feed and too much of a potentially infrequent for me to take Tarik, even in 1/2 point and probably full point PPR. The only Bear I really like in fantasy, as a fan who follows the team closely, is Jordan Howard. I'm not too high on anyone else. I'm not a fan of a lot of aspects of Miami, the CS to say the least, and I'm just not as confident in Drake as I am Collins. 

 

Miller and Ingram are the two that are really close. Miller I like the role better... but almost like the talent less. Ingram in 16 games would be higher. The suspension makes it more league dependent. 

I picked up Collins last year after loosing DJ, D. Cook, and Carson and he was OK.  I remember other RBs poaching TDs though.  

 

The backfield isn’t settled enough for me to be excited about taking Collins in the 4th.  If Dixon is healthy there’s a good chance it becomes a RBBC.  Allen didn’t put up great numbers, but he was heavily used.  Collins numbers were OK, but he had 2 fumbles, and if I remember correctly a history of fumbles.  Dixon is the unknown but highly regarded and drafted in-house.  He has a chance to take the starting job, especially if Collins fumbles continue.  The price is right...

 

Miami situation is interesting in that RB usage has been unpredictable... first with Ajayi then Drake.  Unlike Collins, Drake was fantastic.  Ballage is more of a dart throw into a situation where the coach has been hesitant to commit.  Dixon is probably the better choice, but he’ll be drafted higher.

 

A. Jones > Dixon > Ballage

 

If A. Jones continues to fall he’s my #1 RB stash available late.

 

I’m not drafting Miller.  I’d take Ingram over Burkhead but I don’t think he’ll be available when I want him.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sammy Watkins is a guy I’m strongly considering in the 6th round. If he’s there in the 7th I’m all over him. Chris hogan would be another 6th round target if he’s adp stays there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I picked up Collins last year after loosing DJ, D. Cook, and Carson and he was OK.  I remember other RBs poaching TDs though.  

 

The backfield isn’t settled enough for me to be excited about taking Collins in the 4th.  If Dixon is healthy there’s a good chance it becomes a RBBC.  Allen didn’t put up great numbers, but he was heavily used.  Collins numbers were OK, but he had 2 fumbles, and if I remember correctly a history of fumbles.  Dixon is the unknown but highly regarded and drafted in-house.  He has a chance to take the starting job, especially if Collins fumbles continue.  The price is right...

 

Miami situation is interesting in that RB usage has been unpredictable... first with Ajayi then Drake.  Unlike Collins, Drake was fantastic.  Ballage is more of a dart throw into a situation where the coach has been hesitant to commit.  Dixon is probably the better choice, but he’ll be drafted higher.

 

A. Jones > Dixon > Ballage

 

If A. Jones continues to fall he’s my #1 RB stash available late.

 

I’m not drafting Miller.  I’d take Ingram over Burkhead but I don’t think he’ll be available when I want him.

 

Unlike Collins? He looked great as a runner last year with garbage around him. If you think Drake looked better that’s fine but don’t say that Collins wasn’t very very good. I agree with most of the rest of your post. The staff liked Dixon a ton going into his rookie year, but two knee injuries and a PED probably soured them some on that. Collins is fully expected to enter as the starter and I imagine it would take an injury or a rash of fumbles to change that. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I picked up Collins last year after loosing DJ, D. Cook, and Carson and he was OK.  I remember other RBs poaching TDs though.  

 

The backfield isn’t settled enough for me to be excited about taking Collins in the 4th.  If Dixon is healthy there’s a good chance it becomes a RBBC.  Allen didn’t put up great numbers, but he was heavily used.  Collins numbers were OK, but he had 2 fumbles, and if I remember correctly a history of fumbles.  Dixon is the unknown but highly regarded and drafted in-house.  He has a chance to take the starting job, especially if Collins fumbles continue.  The price is right...

 

Miami situation is interesting in that RB usage has been unpredictable... first with Ajayi then Drake.  Unlike Collins, Drake was fantastic.  Ballage is more of a dart throw into a situation where the coach has been hesitant to commit.  Dixon is probably the better choice, but he’ll be drafted higher.

 

A. Jones > Dixon > Ballage

 

If A. Jones continues to fall he’s my #1 RB stash available late.

 

I’m not drafting Miller.  I’d take Ingram over Burkhead but I don’t think he’ll be available when I want him.

 

 

37 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Unlike Collins? He looked great as a runner last year with garbage around him. If you think Drake looked better that’s fine but don’t say that Collins wasn’t very very good. I agree with most of the rest of your post. The staff liked Dixon a ton going into his rookie year, but two knee injuries and a PED probably soured them some on that. Collins is fully expected to enter as the starter and I imagine it would take an injury or a rash of fumbles to change that. 

 

This. I fundamentally and VERY vehementally disagree with your idea that Drake somehow looked "fantastic" and Collins wasn't. No offense, but it doesn't matter to me when you picked him up and who he lost, that doesn't change the opinion too much. Alex Collins was a HORSE last year. 4.6 YPC. Getting the ball a decent amount. Kenyan Drake literally had three good weeks. From Weeks 1 to 12, he got to 100 yards once, and had 2 TDs. He killed it for three weeks, and then had two meh weeks. 

 

Kenyan Drake really killed it and Alex Collins was "okay"? Nah. I don't get that at all.  

 

He does have a history of fumbles. But he has a history of a lot of fumbles. His fumbling last year wasn't ideal, but it wasn't the worst in the world for a back with 212 carries. I do agree he could fumble the job away, which is why I prefer getting both if I can, but I don't think he will personally. 

 

Alex Collins was one of three backs in the analysis in Jordan Howard's thread that had at least 6 TDs in the Red Zone while having fewer touches than Jordan Howard in the Red Zone. He lost some of those to West and even a couple to Buck, but West isn't there anymore and he's easily the most built for the goal line. If you believe Allen keeps sniping him on the goalline fine, but I dont' think it's very likely. 

 

Several of Collins' metrics like his Yards After Contact, Forced Missed Tackles, and Elusiveness rating were among the best in the entire sport. Keep in mind, the Ravens offensive line last year was SHREDDED with injuries. I mean Marshall Yanda anyone? To survive a poor-offensive line and Carry the workload to a 4.6 YPC, be an above average Goal Line back, and do so on your own by carrying mother f***ers? And you wanna put Kenyan Drake over him talent wise because he can bounced it to the corner a little quicker? PASS. 

 

Obviously it's just one man's opinion. I fundamentally though do not understand how you watched Kenyan Drake and Alex Collins play last year and came away thinking Kenyan Drake was a stud and Collins was more of a guy. Plenty of the advanced contact metrics will support how much more of the lifting Collins had to do to get his 4.6 YPC on much more carries than Drake did to get his 4.8. 

 

Every person I know who follows the Ravens is hyped on Alex Collins. I'm expecting to maybe not get him in my main league because I'm drafting very near a Ravens' fan. They think he's the truth, because I think they saw what I saw: a player in a similar situation to a Jordan Howard last year-- with not a great offense or WR aroundhim, and also a SHREDDED O-Line that no one else had success with, carry the running game on his back, carry defenders on his back, and a power back getting a Hall of Fame guard + more depth back for the O-Line?

 

So yeah, I just absolutely fundamentally do not agree that Alex Collins didn't look all that impressive last year. Maybe you're the kind who only thinks beating a guy to an edge is impressive... but Alex Collins ran through tacklers at elite rates and did so with no O-Line. I'll take Collins, plz and thx. 

 

FWIW Alex Collins was the 4th highest graded RB by PFF in 2017. 

Edited by taobball
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

With regards to Collins/ Dixon, who benefits more from a qb change assuming the scheme changes for LJ? 

 

Are we talking dynasty? I think people get too into scheme sometimes with Running Backs. I dont' think Dixon is very close to Collins right now skill wise. If he can get healthy, stay unsuspended, and get on the field, then maybe he can prove that wrong. But while there's plenty of systems where I'd prefer Matt Forte to Jordan Howard, Alex Collins is much closer to Jordan Howard is rigth now than Kenneth Dixon is to sniffing Matt Forte. I want Dixon to show me he can be a really good one-cut back before I even consider the concept that they're going to bench Collins -- the 4th graded PFF RB last year with + Vision, + Strength, + Self-Created Yards-- to take an experiemtn on someone that "might" be a greater scheme fit. Collins should be fine in blocking and in keeping defenses pressed inside with a physical inside run game.

 

The correlation between Run QB/Rushing RB I believe exists because you have to be quicker, spy more, and guard the edges with a running QB. That should help Collins in the middle though. And the threat of Collins in the middle should help Lamar on the outside, as the vice versa. So personally to me it isn't about scheme at this time. I think Collins showed himself to be a potential kind of RB that you don't just consider an interchangable part. DIxon is still in "Hey, we'll replace this guy in the 5th next year if we need to" territory. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Ballage is my Kamara for this year.  I may or may not take him in the draft, but I’ll be watching closely.

 

I picked on Kamara week 2 on waiver... I never believed AP was the answer.

 

For Miami the situation isn’t set in stone.  Ballage is like Kamara in that he didn’t show much in college besides potential.

 

If I do draft Ballage, i’ll be doing the reverse of last year.  (I drafted Foreman, but swapped him for Kamara).  I might swap Ballage for Foreman after a few weeks if Ballage doesn’t impress.

 

Dixon is also on the radar.  He costs nothing to draft and stash for a few weeks.  It sounds like the team wants Dixon to be the guy, hopefully we see more in the preseason.  J. Allen was no slouch either... not my favorite backfield.

 

Dixon, Ballage, and Foreman all supposedly have talent.  I avoid middling talent even if the situation is good (M. Gordon, Miller).

 

Must be a really small league if you got Kamara on waivers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

This. I fundamentally and VERY vehementally disagree with your idea that Drake somehow looked "fantastic" and Collins wasn't. No offense, but it doesn't matter to me when you picked him up and who he lost, that doesn't change the opinion too much. Alex Collins was a HORSE last year. 4.6 YPC. Getting the ball a decent amount. Kenyan Drake literally had three good weeks. From Weeks 1 to 12, he got to 100 yards once, and had 2 TDs. He killed it for three weeks, and then had two meh weeks. 

 

Kenyan Drake really killed it and Alex Collins was "okay"? Nah. I don't get that at all.  

 

He does have a history of fumbles. But he has a history of a lot of fumbles. His fumbling last year wasn't ideal, but it wasn't the worst in the world for a back with 212 carries. I do agree he could fumble the job away, which is why I prefer getting both if I can, but I don't think he will personally. 

 

Alex Collins was one of three backs in the analysis in Jordan Howard's thread that had at least 6 TDs in the Red Zone while having fewer touches than Jordan Howard in the Red Zone. He lost some of those to West and even a couple to Buck, but West isn't there anymore and he's easily the most built for the goal line. If you believe Allen keeps sniping him on the goalline fine, but I dont' think it's very likely. 

 

Several of Collins' metrics like his Yards After Contact, Forced Missed Tackles, and Elusiveness rating were among the best in the entire sport. Keep in mind, the Ravens offensive line last year was SHREDDED with injuries. I mean Marshall Yanda anyone? To survive a poor-offensive line and Carry the workload to a 4.6 YPC, be an above average Goal Line back, and do so on your own by carrying mother f***ers? And you wanna put Kenyan Drake over him talent wise because he can bounced it to the corner a little quicker? PASS. 

 

Obviously it's just one man's opinion. I fundamentally though do not understand how you watched Kenyan Drake and Alex Collins play last year and came away thinking Kenyan Drake was a stud and Collins was more of a guy. Plenty of the advanced contact metrics will support how much more of the lifting Collins had to do to get his 4.6 YPC on much more carries than Drake did to get his 4.8. 

 

Every person I know who follows the Ravens is hyped on Alex Collins. I'm expecting to maybe not get him in my main league because I'm drafting very near a Ravens' fan. They think he's the truth, because I think they saw what I saw: a player in a similar situation to a Jordan Howard last year-- with not a great offense or WR aroundhim, and also a SHREDDED O-Line that no one else had success with, carry the running game on his back, carry defenders on his back, and a power back getting a Hall of Fame guard + more depth back for the O-Line?

 

So yeah, I just absolutely fundamentally do not agree that Alex Collins didn't look all that impressive last year. Maybe you're the kind who only thinks beating a guy to an edge is impressive... but Alex Collins ran through tacklers at elite rates and did so with no O-Line. I'll take Collins, plz and thx. 

 

FWIW Alex Collins was the 4th highest graded RB by PFF in 2017. 

I’ll expand on the offensive line a little bit. Marshal Yanda’s return can’t be overstated. He’s an absolute beast and makes everyone around him better. The line was graded 9th in 2016 with him, Alex Lewis as a rookie at LG, and Ronnie Stanley a rookie at LT. Lewis went down in the preseason and Yanda went down week 2, as well as 4th round pick Nico Siragusa also a preseason casualty. This left the interior of the line in absolute shambles. The line ended up graded 18th overall last year and I think that was because it somehow was decent in pass pro but really bad in the run game. 

 

So for this year you get Yanda back, Lewis who was bad at tackle but pretty good at guard as rookie, you get Stanley in his 3rd year, and you add the big kid from Oklahoma (Orlando Brown) at right tackle. Remember he was considered a first round talent and graded out extremely well on the field before falling because of an awful combine. It’s reasonable to think that the line will be better at 4 positions and worse at only center, with one of those upgrades the massive upgrade of Yanda. This allows me some optimism that the line can be average in the run game and if it sniffs the level of 2016’s 9th ranked line there may actually be holes for Collins to run through. Pretty excited to see how he would do with some blocking as taco mentions be created a lot of his yardage by himself last year through his elusiveness and exceptional feet.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like a lot of the points being made on this thread so far. Alex Collins has been my favorite mid round target, and you guys are just making it that much easier to pick him with complete confidence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Breesus said:

I like a lot of the points being made on this thread so far. Alex Collins has been my favorite mid round target, and you guys are just making it that much easier to pick him with complete confidence.

That’s fine.  Collins got downgraded from great to good for the fumbles (for me).  Maybe he does leave Dixon & Allen in the dust with carries...

 

FYI: Both Drake & Collins are going in the 4th.  I like Penny & Guice in the 5th.

 

I prefer RB-WR-WR-WR-RB for PPR risk/reward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

That’s fine.  Collins got downgraded from great to good for the fumbles (for me).  Maybe he does leave Dixon & Allen in the dust with carries...

 

FYI: Both Drake & Collins are going in the 4th.  I like Penny & Guice in the 5th.

 

I prefer RB-WR-WR-WR-RB for PPR risk/reward.

 

The fear of fumbles? Or last seasons? Because like I do get it. It is a risk. But to pretend that his talent last year when running the ball was “ordinary” I think is a considerable amount of underselling. 101st ranked PLAYER in football by PFF. Highest true Run grade. And also a complete anomaly in a system that greatly favors passing stats— because he was that good. He’s even used as one of the main examples for running backs displaying “good vision” in a “defining vision” breakdown article on PFF.

 

so ye, I just don’t think the talent is that middling. I’m fine with collins in the 3rd tbh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The fear of fumbles? Or last seasons? Because like I do get it. It is a risk. But to pretend that his talent last year when running the ball was “ordinary” I think is a considerable amount of underselling. 101st ranked PLAYER in football by PFF. Highest true Run grade. And also a complete anomaly in a system that greatly favors passing stats— because he was that good. He’s even used as one of the main examples for running backs displaying “good vision” in a “defining vision” breakdown article on PFF.

 

so ye, I just don’t think the talent is that middling. I’m fine with collins in the 3rd tbh.

What is a true run grade?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

What is a true run grade?

 

I miffed the vocab a bit, but here’s his top 101 profile which is available I’d you search PFFs top 101

 

Despite languishing on the practice squad as late as mid-September this past season, Alex Collinshad a breakout year for the Baltimore Ravens and had the highest pure rushing score of any back at 89.7. Collins averaged 3.0 yards per carry after contact, breaking 34 tackles on 212 carries. He was a weaker player in the pass game, but those carries were spectacular.

PFF Elite Stat: Among the 53 running backs with at least 81 attempts in 2017, Collins ranked 10th in PFF’s elusive rating at 55.7

 

I’m guessing pure rushing score in this context means that every RB graded above did so because of their work in the Pass. If you ignore all plays where a back was a designed runner, Collins had the highest grade. That’s my interpretation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I miffed the vocab a bit, but here’s his top 101 profile which is available I’d you search PFFs top 101

 

Despite languishing on the practice squad as late as mid-September this past season, Alex Collinshad a breakout year for the Baltimore Ravens and had the highest pure rushing score of any back at 89.7. Collins averaged 3.0 yards per carry after contact, breaking 34 tackles on 212 carries. He was a weaker player in the pass game, but those carries were spectacular.

PFF Elite Stat: Among the 53 running backs with at least 81 attempts in 2017, Collins ranked 10th in PFF’s elusive rating at 55.7

 

I’m guessing pure rushing score in this context means that every RB graded above did so because of their work in the Pass. If you ignore all plays where a back was a designed runner, Collins had the highest grade. That’s my interpretation

 

Pro tip: if you don't know what a stat means, don't use it.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

What is a true run grade?

 

It’s a simple equation, no algorithm required: you take the trolled run grade and multiply it with the homer run grade and then take that result and multiply it by zero, then add the actual rushing yardage, and you have the True Run Grade.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Pro tip: if you don't know what a stat means, don't use it.

 

Oh okay, I’ve seen you around. And I get it now. 

 

PFF grades aren’t stats. They’re performance grades. Which means they’re already subjective. So no, I don’t think it’s necessary to have a better than 95% idea of what PFF means when they say “Pure Rushing Grade,” because ultimately it’s just a dude at a computer making a subjective decision anyway, and not a statistic. 

 

Cheers. 

Edited by taobball

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The fear of fumbles? Or last seasons? Because like I do get it. It is a risk. But to pretend that his talent last year when running the ball was “ordinary” I think is a considerable amount of underselling. 101st ranked PLAYER in football by PFF. Highest true Run grade. And also a complete anomaly in a system that greatly favors passing stats— because he was that good. He’s even used as one of the main examples for running backs displaying “good vision” in a “defining vision” breakdown article on PFF.

 

so ye, I just don’t think the talent is that middling. I’m fine with collins in the 3rd tbh.

 

212 973 4.6 6 36 23 187 8.1 0 2 169.20
153 591 3.9 4 60 46 250 5.4 2 0 163.60

 

I said Collins was “OK” not ordinary.  And, I agree Collins far superior to Allen.  But I also find it disturbing when looking at the numbers.  Collins ended up less than 6 points over Allen, and I’m assuming Dixon is better than Allen.

 

Why did Collins not get more work in 2017?  My bet is fumbles.  

 

I don’t know if this holds true for the season.  I don’t watch many Raven’s games.  But I watched Collins grind it all the way to goal line, only to have them give it to Allen to punch it in.  Since I owned Collins it was definitely a WTF moment.  That’s one of the reasons I’m willing to stash Dixon late.

 

If you draft Collins, I’d definitely recommend stashing Dixon (for the cost of a kicker) then dump him after a few weeks, if it turns out my worry is unfounded.

 

Also notice Collins low (like Howard low) number of receptions.  He was more effective (8.1 vs. 5.4) in the passing game, but only had half as many receptions.  It’s not like I can ask the coach, but i’m suspicious.

 

Here’s Dixon’s numbers in 2016

88 382 4.3 2 41 30 162 5.4 1 0 95.40

 

They’re a mixed bag.  4.3 AVE was good, but receiving was nothing special.  On production Dixon > Allen.  It’s notable no fumbles.  Right now Dixon is just trying to lock down the #2 job, so that’s in your favor.

 

I look at everything and see a possible RBBC, but the Raven I expect to be run heavy so there is upside for Collins.

 

 

 

Edited by seanismorris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...