Jaw1

Targets in Rounds 4-7

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14 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Oh okay, I’ve seen you around. And I get it now. 

 

PFF grades aren’t stats. They’re performance grades. Which means they’re already subjective. So no, I don’t think it’s necessary to have a better than 95% idea of what PFF means when they say “Pure Rushing Grade,” because ultimately it’s just a dude at a computer making a subjective decision anyway, and not a statistic. 

 

Cheers. 

 

Oh some dude at a computer. Really clears things up.

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9 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

 

Why did Collins not get more work in 2017?  My bet is fumbles.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't the answer just be that he was on the practice squad until mid-September and then worked his way up after that? 

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34 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

212 973 4.6 6 36 23 187 8.1 0 2 169.20
153 591 3.9 4 60 46 250 5.4 2 0 163.60

 

I said Collins was “OK” not ordinary.  And, I agree Collins far superior to Allen.  But I also find it disturbing when looking at the numbers.  Collins ended up less than 6 points over Allen, and I’m assuming Dixon is better than Allen.

 

Why did Collins not get more work in 2017?  My bet is fumbles.  

 

I don’t know if this holds true for the season.  I don’t watch many Raven’s games.  But I watched Collins grind it all the way to goal line, only to have them give it to Allen to punch it in.  Since I owned Collins it was definitely a WTF moment.  That’s one of the reasons I’m willing to stash Dixon late.

 

If you draft Collins, I’d definitely recommend stashing Dixon (for the cost of a kicker) then dump him after a few weeks, if it turns out my worry is unfounded.

 

Also notice Collins low (like Howard low) number of receptions.  He was more effective (8.1 vs. 5.4) in the passing game, but only had half as many receptions.  It’s not like I can ask the coach, but i’m suspicious.

 

Here’s Dixon’s numbers in 2016

88 382 4.3 2 41 30 162 5.4 1 0 95.40

 

They’re a mixed bag.  4.3 AVE was good, but receiving was nothing special.  On production Dixon > Allen.  It’s notable no fumbles.  Right now Dixon is just trying to lock down the #2 job, so that’s in your favor.

 

I look at everything and see a possible RBBC, but the Raven I expect to be run heavy so there is upside for Collins.

 

 

 

 

I really just absolutely don't agree at all on any concept about RBBC. You can make the difference between ordinary and OK all you want. Dixon hasn't been nearly as good as Collins when he's played. He's shot himself in the foot with suspensions. He hasn't stayed on the team. The Ravens were high on Dixon a few years ago... do people think his standing in the organization is really so much on a platter?

 

Over the last 8 games last season Collins averaged 16.5 Carries per game, 2.6 Receptions. 16.5 Carries in 16 games is 264 carries.

 

Unless you think I need first round volume in the fourth round, I don't think the volume argument holds up. He got plenty of volume last year. 

 

His YPC last year was 4.6. Reasonably I think it has as good of a chance to be better than 4.6 as I think it has to be worse than 4.6. I think this is a very talented, strong, fast runner who did this last year without any help from the O-Line. If Marshall Yanda plays 16 games I think it could definitely be higher. But let's just put it at 4.6. 

 

If he gets 264 carries at 4.6, that's 1214 Yards.

 

He scored all 6 of his Rushing TDs in the last 8 games of the season. And as alluded to before, did so with a good ratio of success in the money area. So I think my projection has him somewhere in the 8-10 TDs range. We'll be conservative and call it 8.5. Average out passing stats similarly, I'm sitting at: 

 

264 Carries, 1214 Yards, 8.5 TDs, 42 Receptions, 340 Yards, and if he loses fumbles at the same rate as last year, 2.5 Fumbles Lost.

 

Standard: 202.4 Points (RB8 ahead of Leonard Fournette)

1/2: 223.4 (Same; RB8 ahead of Fournette)

Full-PPR: 244.4 Points (Same; RB8, only ahead of Hyde, then Fournette). 

 

Yes, fumbles are a big issue-- or have been in the past. But they realistically weren't that bad last year for the numbers he put up. If he can keep at that pace and only lose 2-3 Fumbles, that will be very sufferable as one of the best backs in football in the running game, which I expect Collins to be.

 

Collins doesn't have the security of role as Backs going in the 2nd-3rd round, which is why he isn't going there. But I'm willing to take him as early as the mid-3rd and believe he's got a very good chance at being servicable as a top 10 RB this season. 

Edited by taobball

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28 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Couldn't the answer just be that he was on the practice squad until mid-September and then worked his way up after that? 

The stats don’t really tell the whole story.

 

Here’s the breakdown for Collins.  You can definitely see an increase as the year went on, and he finished very strong.  I also see a fairly easy schedule down the stretch...  Collins didn’t do great against good D’s overall.  I haven’t looked at Collins strength of schedule for 2018.

 

Remember, I’m not in the Collins sucks camp.  I’m saying Dixon is worth a stash.

 
*2 9/17/2017 CLE 7 42 0 0 0 0 0 3.2
*3 9/24/2017 @JAC 9 82 0 0 0 0 0 8.2
*4 10/1/2017 PIT 9 82 0 2 0 0 0 7.2
*5 10/8/2017 @OAK 12 55 0 0 0 0 0 5.5
*6 10/15/2017 CHI 15 74 0 0 0 0 0 7.4
*7 10/22/2017 @MIN 10 30 0 0 0 0 0 3
*8 10/26/2017 MIA 18 113 0 2 2 30 0 16.3
*9 11/5/2017 @TEN 13 43 0 1 1 3 0 5.6
*11 11/19/2017 @GB 20 49 1 7 4 22 0 17.1
*12 11/27/2017 HOU 16 60 1 2 2 -3 0 14
*13 12/3/2017 DET 15 75 2 2 2 23 0 23.8
*14 12/10/2017 @PIT 18 120 1 2 2 46 0 24.6
*15 12/17/2017 @CLE 12 19 0 8 5 33 0 10.2
*16 12/23/2017 IND 18 51 0 4 3 15 0 9.6
*17 12/31/2017 CIN 20 78 1 6 2 18 0 17.6

 

Here’s run D rating for 2017

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/position/defense

 

Both the Lions & Steelers gave up a lot of TDs.  The Steelers were stingy in yardage though, and Collins tore them up.

 

The other thing I noticed that’s interesting is that Collins never rushed > 20 times.  That seems intentional...

Edited by seanismorris
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The answer is that they didn’t trust him at the goal line, in the passing game, or to carry a big load until after the bye. Whether that’s because of the fumbles or his being new to the team, I don’t know. Harbaugh did have some early season comments about his ball security. Check out his game logs after the bye. He averages 20 touches per game and just a shade under 3 receptions per game and scores all 6 of his tds. I remember him scoring a td from the 5 vs GB and getting stuffed at the goal line a couple times vs Cleveland week 16. Some of the goal line sniping by Buck was when they were in a formation with Buck at fullback and Collins set deep. The play either called for a dive by Buck with a fake pitch to Collins or a fake dive by Buck with a pitch to Collins. So Collins on a couple occasions at least was in the game but whatever read of the defense occurred dictated a handoff to Allen.

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1 minute ago, seanismorris said:

The stats don’t really tell the whole story.

 

Here’s the breakdown for Collins.  You can definitely see and increase as the year went on, and he finished very strong.  I also see a fairly easy schedule down the stretch...  Collins didn’t do great against good D’s overall.  I haven’t looked at Collins strength of schedule for 2018.

 

Remember, I’m not in the Collins sucks camp.  I’m saying Dixon is worth a stash.

 
*2 9/17/2017 CLE 7 42 0 0 0 0 0 3.2
*3 9/24/2017 @JAC 9 82 0 0 0 0 0 8.2
*4 10/1/2017 PIT 9 82 0 2 0 0 0 7.2
*5 10/8/2017 @OAK 12 55 0 0 0 0 0 5.5
*6 10/15/2017 CHI 15 74 0 0 0 0 0 7.4
*7 10/22/2017 @MIN 10 30 0 0 0 0 0 3
*8 10/26/2017 MIA 18 113 0 2 2 30 0 16.3
*9 11/5/2017 @TEN 13 43 0 1 1 3 0 5.6
*11 11/19/2017 @GB 20 49 1 7 4 22 0 17.1
*12 11/27/2017 HOU 16 60 1 2 2 -3 0 14
*13 12/3/2017 DET 15 75 2 2 2 23 0 23.8
*14 12/10/2017 @PIT 18 120 1 2 2 46 0 24.6
*15 12/17/2017 @CLE 12 19 0 8 5 33 0 10.2
*16 12/23/2017 IND 18 51 0 4 3 15 0 9.6
*17 12/31/2017 CIN 20 78 1 6 2 18 0 17.6

 

Here’s run D rating for 2017

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/position/defense

 

Both the Lions & Steelers gave up a lot of TDs.  The Steelers were stingy in yardage though, and Collins tore them up.

 

The other thing I noticed that’s interesting is that Collins never rushed > 20 times.  That seems intentional...

 

Again, I think the highlighted point undersells the success he had with a line that was truly doing him very few favors, and is getting a true Hall of Famer back from injury, among other improvements. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Again, I think the highlighted point undersells the success he had with a line that was truly doing him very few favors, and is getting a true Hall of Famer back from injury, among other improvements. 

Here’s more information about the Raven’s 2017 O-line for anyone interested. (PFF)

 

18. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Total pressures surrendered: 138
Best playerRonnie Stanley
Combinations used: 26

The Ravens saw average performances at both tackle positions and at center in 2017, but they could not overcome the injury of star guard Marshal Yanda and struggled at both guard positions all season long. Second-year left tackle Ronnie Stanley kicked off a very promising start over the first two months of the season, but was unable to finish the season strong as he surrendered at least two pressures in seven of his last 10 games. In addition, while the Ravens like to rely on outside zone runs, they averaged just 1.09 yards before contact on these runs, which was below the league average of 1.21 yards.

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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s more information about the Raven’s 2017 O-line for anyone interested. (PFF)

 

18. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Total pressures surrendered: 138
Best playerRonnie Stanley
Combinations used: 26

The Ravens saw average performances at both tackle positions and at center in 2017, but they could not overcome the injury of star guard Marshal Yanda and struggled at both guard positions all season long. Second-year left tackle Ronnie Stanley kicked off a very promising start over the first two months of the season, but was unable to finish the season strong as he surrendered at least two pressures in seven of his last 10 games. In addition, while the Ravens like to rely on outside zone runs, they averaged just 1.09 yards before contact on these runs, which was below the league average of 1.21 yards.

 

Is your point that I'm underselling htem or just in general? 

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Dixon very much is worth a stash though. This team wants to run the ball a ton. There’s room for Collins to get 20 ish touches and another back to get 10-12. The Ravens ran the ball 28.8 times per game last year behind a mediocre run blocking OL. That was 7th in the league and a few teams in fromt of them (Philly Dallas Buffalo Carolina) had qbs that ran the ball so I’m guessing as far as attempts by running backs that’s more like 3rd or 4th most attempts. If the line is at all competent run blocking, that number will increase. Dixon should beat out Buck for the second back role, probably giving him a shot at 10-12 touches per game including some recs and possibly competing for goal line touches. Dixon does have good hands and some power. Collins also has good hands and power as well as significantly more elusiveness, footwork, and creativity as a runner.

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Dixon is almost free. No sense in not taking him if you take Collins. Both guys have proven to be potential lead backs skill wise and it isn't like Baltimore has anything in the pass game minus Crabtree. I understand that you would be drafting those 2 Baltimore RB's to lock down 1 2 run RB role but I think it could be a high volume and decently lucrative payoff for a 4th-5th round pick and then another towards the end of your draft. 

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22 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s more information about the Raven’s 2017 O-line for anyone interested. (PFF)

 

18. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Total pressures surrendered: 138
Best playerRonnie Stanley
Combinations used: 26

The Ravens saw average performances at both tackle positions and at center in 2017, but they could not overcome the injury of star guard Marshal Yanda and struggled at both guard positions all season long. Second-year left tackle Ronnie Stanley kicked off a very promising start over the first two months of the season, but was unable to finish the season strong as he surrendered at least two pressures in seven of his last 10 games. In addition, while the Ravens like to rely on outside zone runs, they averaged just 1.09 yards before contact on these runs, which was below the league average of 1.21 yards.

A little more on this- that number of pressures is the 5th fewest in the league and the line allowed the second fewest sacks. So that must make for a really good pass blocking grade. Meaning that to be 18th overall despite a good pass blocking grade, that the run blocking grade must have been horrific.

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Here’s something Drake relevant.  Miami was terrible overall rushing in 2017.  Only 4 TDs, and 29th in rushing yards. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing

 

It’s interesting in that Ajayi got traded to a team that ended up being ranked 3rd in yards and 9TDs. (9 isn’t that great)

 

Drake didn’t have that much trouble moving the ball.

133 644 4.8 3 50 32 239 7.5 1 2 142.40
 

 

I’m avoiding Ajayi, but there was some kind of disconnect.  Ajayi’s stats were pretty good.

 

208 873 4.2 1 34 24 158 6.6 1 2 133.00

 

I’d say Phili just has a phenomenal O-line vs. Miami’s, but Drake...  very confusing. 

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29 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Is your point that I'm underselling htem or just in general? 

I’m just providing information.  As I’ve said, I don’t hate Collins.  I’m just drafting a rookie a round later...

 

Readers can make of the information what they will.  I’m not going to change your RB preference, and you’re not going to change mine.  I’m not “attacking” your preference... I’m doing research, and explaining mine.

 

I think Collins has risks, so I’m recommending Dixon as a cuff.  

 

I’m not saying the rookies (I like) don’t have risks.  I’ve suggested if I draft Penny, I’ll also take Carson.  I see less risk with Guice, but Washington’s ground game has struggled so there is possibly less upside.  (Less risk, because I don’t see a possibility of someone taking his job.)

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56 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Is your point that I'm underselling htem or just in general? 

I’m just providing information.  As I’ve said, I don’t hate Collins.  I’m just drafting a rookie a round later...

 

Readers can make of the information what they will.  I’m not going to change your RB preference, and you’re not going to change mine.  I’m not “attacking” your preference... I’m doing research, and explaining mine.

 

I think Collins has risks, so I’m recommending Dixon as a cuff.  

 

I’m not saying the rookies (I like) don’t have risks.  I’ve suggested if I draft Penny, I’ll also take Carson.  I see less risk with Guice, but Washington’s ground game has struggled so there is possibly less upside.  (Less risk, because I don’t see a possibility of someone taking his job.)

 

Also, Washington had tons of injuries last year that affected the run game, so I’m not overly worried (for Guice) for 2018.

(sorry for some reason the first part is a duplicate of the previous one)

Edited by seanismorris

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17 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I’m just providing information.  As I’ve said, I don’t hate Collins.  I’m just drafting a rookie a round later...

 

Readers can make of the information what they will.  I’m not going to change your RB preference, and you’re not going to change mine.  I’m not “attacking” your preference... I’m doing research, and explaining mine.

 

I never accused you of attacking so I really don’t know what you have it in quotes...  all I was asking is if you were refuting my claim that his line did him few favors last year and should be greatly improved next year or not... you haven’t directly addressed any point with the line. You left that as a semi counter argument to my point about how I believed one of your points undersold the line situation. I’m still unsure what your opinion is on the matter, and that’s what I’m asking. 

 

Ive also in no way at any point insinuated that anyone should not draft Dixon at his current ADP.

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27 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Here’s something Drake relevant.  Miami was terrible overall rushing in 2017.  Only 4 TDs, and 29th in rushing yards. 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing

 

It’s interesting in that Ajayi got traded to a team that ended up being ranked 3rd in yards and 9TDs. (9 isn’t that great)

 

Drake didn’t have that much trouble moving the ball.

133 644 4.8 3 50 32 239 7.5 1 2 142.40
 

 

I’m avoiding Ajayi, but there was some kind of disconnect.  Ajayi’s stats were pretty good.

 

208 873 4.2 1 34 24 158 6.6 1 2 133.00

 

I’d say Phili just has a phenomenal O-line vs. Miami’s, but Drake...  very confusing. 

Blount had 10 carries inside the 5 for -7 yards and just 1 td. That would explain some the lack of rushing tds. I expect Ajayi will do very well in the early down/goal line role behind that line.

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I hope RBs that (by ADP) are available in the 4th don’t get drafted like this.  It would serious disruption my draft strategy.

 

Guice #22

Penny #32

Collins #35

 

I’m avoiding Mixon, but he went #26.  I don’t see why he should be drafted before any of the above RBs. Or even Howard that went #29th.

 

Drake didn’t go yet... interesting.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/07/fantasy-football-expert-ppr-mock-draft-july-2018/

 

ROUNDS 1-3

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Barrett 1 Le’Veon Bell
 
2 1
Moore 2 Todd Gurley
 
1 -1
Behrens 3 David Johnson
 
3 0
Sylvester 4 Ezekiel Elliott
 
4 0
Tagliere 5 Antonio Brown
 
5 0
Harris 6 Saquon Barkley
 
7 1
Crist 7 Alvin Kamara
 
6 -1
Ciely 8 Kareem Hunt
 
9 1
Thorman 9 Melvin Gordon
 
11 2
Hribar 10 DeAndre Hopkins
 
8 -2
Boone 11 Odell Beckham Jr.
 
10 -1
Eisenberg 12 Keenan Allen
 
16 4
Eisenberg 13 Julio Jones
 
13 0
Boone 14 Michael Thomas
 
15 1
Hribar 15 Leonard Fournette
 
12 -3
Thorman 16 Dalvin Cook
 
14 -2
Ciely 17 Davante Adams
 
18 1
Crist 18 Christian McCaffrey
 
17 -1
Harris 19 Mike Evans
 
21 2
Tagliere 20 A.J. Green
 
19 -1
Sylvester 21 Devonta Freeman
 
20 -1
Behrens 22 Derrius Guice
 
38 16
Moore 23 Adam Thielen
 
29 6
Barrett 24 LeSean McCoy
 
23 -1
Barrett 25 Jerick McKinnon
 
24 -1
Moore 26 Joe Mixon
 
25 -1
Behrens 27 Rob Gronkowski
 
22 -5
Sylvester 28 Doug Baldwin
 
31 3
Tagliere 29 Jordan Howard
 
28 -1
Harris 30 Travis Kelce
 
26 -4
Crist 31 Stefon Diggs
 
33 2
Ciely 32 Rashaad Penny
 
42 10
Thorman 33 T.Y. Hilton
 
32 -1
Hribar 34 Larry Fitzgerald
 
36 2
Boone 35 Alex Collins
 
47 12
Eisenberg 36 Tyreek Hill
 
27 -9

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I hope RBs that (by ADP) are available in the 4th don’t get drafted like this.  It would serious disruption my draft strategy.

 

Guice #22

Penny #32

Collins #35

 

I’m avoiding Mixon, but he went #26.  I don’t see why he should be drafted before any of the above RBs. Or even Howard that went #29th.

 

Drake didn’t go yet... interesting.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/07/fantasy-football-expert-ppr-mock-draft-july-2018/

 

ROUNDS 1-3

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Barrett 1 Le’Veon Bell
 
2 1
Moore 2 Todd Gurley
 
1 -1
Behrens 3 David Johnson
 
3 0
Sylvester 4 Ezekiel Elliott
 
4 0
Tagliere 5 Antonio Brown
 
5 0
Harris 6 Saquon Barkley
 
7 1
Crist 7 Alvin Kamara
 
6 -1
Ciely 8 Kareem Hunt
 
9 1
Thorman 9 Melvin Gordon
 
11 2
Hribar 10 DeAndre Hopkins
 
8 -2
Boone 11 Odell Beckham Jr.
 
10 -1
Eisenberg 12 Keenan Allen
 
16 4
Eisenberg 13 Julio Jones
 
13 0
Boone 14 Michael Thomas
 
15 1
Hribar 15 Leonard Fournette
 
12 -3
Thorman 16 Dalvin Cook
 
14 -2
Ciely 17 Davante Adams
 
18 1
Crist 18 Christian McCaffrey
 
17 -1
Harris 19 Mike Evans
 
21 2
Tagliere 20 A.J. Green
 
19 -1
Sylvester 21 Devonta Freeman
 
20 -1
Behrens 22 Derrius Guice
 
38 16
Moore 23 Adam Thielen
 
29 6
Barrett 24 LeSean McCoy
 
23 -1
Barrett 25 Jerick McKinnon
 
24 -1
Moore 26 Joe Mixon
 
25 -1
Behrens 27 Rob Gronkowski
 
22 -5
Sylvester 28 Doug Baldwin
 
31 3
Tagliere 29 Jordan Howard
 
28 -1
Harris 30 Travis Kelce
 
26 -4
Crist 31 Stefon Diggs
 
33 2
Ciely 32 Rashaad Penny
 
42 10
Thorman 33 T.Y. Hilton
 
32 -1
Hribar 34 Larry Fitzgerald
 
36 2
Boone 35 Alex Collins
 
47 12
Eisenberg 36 Tyreek Hill
 
27 -9

I expect the rookie RB to rise but not this much. I'll take Ingram at #52, Drake at #53 or Miller at #56 over Guice at #22. I guess makes sense since position is so deep but the WR talent compared to the RB talent in the 4-6 range is going to make it tough to justify getting a RB especially if everybody starts reaching for them. I might definitely rule out WR/WR especially since I want to get a TE in the 3rd. 

Edited by Jaw1

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28 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I expect the rookie RB to rise but not this much. I'll take Ingram at #52, Drake at #53 or Miller at #56 over Guice at #22. 

 

I agree with you, especially because It’s PPR (above) and I see Guice surrendering major targets to CThompson, but also I’m seeing Guice all over the place (went for chump change very late in an auction last night), so in part he’s tough to predict right now.

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Can’t imagine a world where I’d take a 2 down rookie back over Gronk in a ppr league. This guy got majorly lucky that he got Gronk in the 3rd after grabbing Guice over him in the 2nd.

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28 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

I expect the rookie RB to rise but not this much. I'll take Ingram at #52, Drake at #53 or Miller at #56 over Guice at #22. I guess makes sense since position is so deep but the WR talent compared to the RB talent in the 4-6 range is going to make it tough to justify getting a RB especially if everybody starts reaching for them. I might definitely rule out WR/WR especially since I want to get a TE in the 3rd. 

I agree Ingram and Drake offer better value than Guice in the 2nd round.

 

I don’t think there will be a run on RBs (in reality) to this degree, but it doesn’t really change my plan of RB-WR-WR-WR-RB.  I could change to RB-WR-WR-RB if I detect a trend but I think sticking to your game plan is better than panicking.  I’ve mapped out both combos above and like both almost equally.

 

My plan on waiting for a QB & TE offers some flexibility at other positions.

 

TE is another position that could be overdrafted in the rush for the top3.  I’ll stream TE’s if necessary...

 

 

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“I hope RBs that (by ADP) are available in the 4th don’t get drafted like this.  It would serious disruption my draft strategy.

 

Guice #22

Penny #32

Collins #35

 

I’m avoiding Mixon, but he went #26.  I don’t see why he should be drafted before any of the above RBs. Or even Howard that went #29th.

 

Drake didn’t go yet... interesting.

@seanismorris

 

Didnt want to quote the whole thing.

 

Guice and Penny is all about rookie opinion for one. I understand that these two running backs are particularly talented but that’s always gonna be a thing. Personally, if it weren’t for the CS I would take Mixon, but with Marvin and Bill in office I agree. 

 

I also think more drafts will go this way then earlier mockers expect. There’s way too many WRs ranked together right now overall. That’s mostly because the glut of first round RBs, but I think more teams will go RB/RB than the early ranking predict. 

 

I’m drafting at 1.10 in my 12 team league. 1/2 pt. My current draft strategy (and I always do best available) but the most common draft strategy I’ve used from that spot is WR/WR/RB. If Howard isn’t there, I’m taking Collins most likely. 

 

As for Drake, I consider even Gore a greater threat for carries and vulture TDs then anything anyone else we’ve mentioned have to deal with. Miami used Damien Williams even last year at times to start games over Drake. They’ve never showed particular faith in him. Personally I’m just not as high. 

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4 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

Can’t imagine a world where I’d take a 2 down rookie back over Gronk in a ppr league. This guy got majorly lucky that he got Gronk in the 3rd after grabbing Guice over him in the 2nd.

I don’t consider Guice a 2 down back, bit I agree he’s probably not going to catch more than +10 on a guy like Howard.  Thompson is just to good...

 

Gronk in the 3rd was just stupid value...  I wasn’t planning on taking a TE early, but Gronk would be difficult to pass on.

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

As for Drake, I consider even Gore a greater threat for carries and vulture TDs then anything anyone else we’ve mentioned have to deal with. Miami used Damien Williams even last year at times to start games over Drake. They’ve never showed particular faith in him. Personally I’m just not as high. 

I’m not as high on Drake as his ADP, but if he falls I’ll take him.  I consider Gore as veteran depth, and a guy chasing records.  Gore is no longer a 4 AVE player...

 

D. Williams usage was interesting, and prompted my interest in Ballage.  Drake has a high ceiling, but also a low floor.  Drake was 3rd round draft pick, and Ballage 4th (if I remember correctly).

 

I’m fairly high on R. Freeman so I won’t be chasing RBs.  Once I get my guy in the 1st, I can be patient.  (I can only start 2 RBs, but want 4 on roster) 

 

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I'm likely owning DT lots of places this year, Thielan 8th in the NFL last year in targets, DT 10th, DT now has Thielan's QB and is a upgrade over his awful QB'S.

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