Jaw1

Targets in Rounds 4-7

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6 minutes ago, turner46 said:

I'm likely owning DT lots of places this year, Thielan 8th in the NFL last year in targets, DT 10th, DT now has Thielan's QB and is a upgrade over his awful QB'S.

 

Do you think that ESanders is a better fit for Keenum (than DT) considering how he lines up and how his usage parallels Thielen’s usage, or do you see Keenum modifying his successful formula from last season with a new coaching staff/team?

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3 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Do you think that ESanders is a better fit for Keenum (than DT) considering how he lines up and how his usage parallels Thielen’s usage, or do you see Keenum modifying his successful formula from last season with a new coaching staff/team?

You beat me to it.  I don't see how DT and Adam Thielen relate to each other.  Sanders would probably benefit more from the change, but then again that probably has more to do with the offensive coordinator not the Quarterback.

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Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

Do you think that ESanders is a better fit for Keenum (than DT) considering how he lines up and how his usage parallels Thielen’s usage, or do you see Keenum modifying his successful formula from last season with a new coaching staff/team?

 

As of now I'd bet on DT. Thielan played 43.1% of snaps in the slot. DT only played 10.8 while Sanders played 13.6% I guess I will have to wait and hear about training camp but thanks for bringing that up, whoever man's the slot more is the one I want.

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15 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Do you think that ESanders is a better fit for Keenum (than DT) considering how he lines up and how his usage parallels Thielen’s usage, or do you see Keenum modifying his successful formula from last season with a new coaching staff/team?

 

Also Thielen was 3rd in the NFL with 32% of his teams 3rd down targets while DT was 11th with 24%. I think DT is more like Thielen then Sanders but it is a totally different offense for Keenum so the slot aspect I brought up earlier may not be that valid.

12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You beat me to it.  I don't see how DT and Adam Thielen relate to each other.  Sanders would probably benefit more from the change, but then again that probably has more to do with the offensive coordinator not the Quarterback.

 

Agree that it is a new offensive coordinator for Keenum so my quick take on this situation needs to be put on hold until I hear news from training camp/pre season.

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18 minutes ago, turner46 said:

 

As of now I'd bet on DT. Thielan played 43.1% of snaps in the slot. DT only played 10.8 while Sanders played 13.6% I guess I will have to wait and hear about training camp but thanks for bringing that up, whoever man's the slot more is the one I want.

 

22 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You beat me to it.  I don't see how DT and Adam Thielen relate to each other.  Sanders would probably benefit more from the change, but then again that probably has more to do with the offensive coordinator not the Quarterback.

 

I think, in part, predicting Keenum’s slot machine comes down to rookie usage / distribution, and that’s something we won’t see until August. Which rookie will emerge as the #3? If it’s Sutton, I see Sanders in the slot and his usage paralleling Thielen to some extent. If Hamilton emerges as Denver’s #3 WR, I think we might find him in the slot often and Sanders outside... this is what I’m looking for in August. My two cents.

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I miffed the vocab a bit, but here’s his top 101 profile which is available I’d you search PFFs top 101

 

Despite languishing on the practice squad as late as mid-September this past season, Alex Collinshad a breakout year for the Baltimore Ravens and had the highest pure rushing score of any back at 89.7. Collins averaged 3.0 yards per carry after contact, breaking 34 tackles on 212 carries. He was a weaker player in the pass game, but those carries were spectacular.

PFF Elite Stat: Among the 53 running backs with at least 81 attempts in 2017, Collins ranked 10th in PFF’s elusive rating at 55.7

 

I’m guessing pure rushing score in this context means that every RB graded above did so because of their work in the Pass. If you ignore all plays where a back was a designed runner, Collins had the highest grade. That’s my interpretation

Regardless of how you view the pure rush score. Averaging 3.0 after contact is extremely impressive, plus like others have stated his line was very banged up. Yanda is one of the best guards in the league. 

 

If my memory is correct Harbough has always liked using one primary back for the most part. Rice was the #1 for years, and he’s been wanting Dixon to be the guy but that hasn’t happened yet so he was forced to use a committee of less talented guys such as Allen/West. Then Collins burst onto the scene last year and they rode him to near playoff birth, with an awful passing attack and banged up line. This all lines up for Collins to have great year in my opinion. 

Edited by Breesus

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I’m really liking Olsen in the 5th. I pick in the top 5 so I doubt he’ll be around when I get to pick in the 6th-7th. He is Cam’s favorite target and is a lock top 5 imo. And his ceiling is #1 TE in Fantasy, not much of a safer pick around. 

Edited by Breesus

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41 minutes ago, Breesus said:

I’m really liking Olsen in the 5th. I pick in the top 5 so I doubt he’ll be around when I get to pick in the 6th-7th. He is Cam’s favorite target and is a lock top 5 imo. And his ceiling is #1 TE in Fantasy, not much of a safer pick around. 

He's 33 years old coming off of foot surgery and has more competition for targets than he's ever had.  I don't understand why people are so high on him whatsoever.

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2 hours ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

Enough derailing this thread regarding dixon and Collins. They have their own threads for such discussion

Yes sir, sorry sir.

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So, since we're talking about 4-7th round targets, how do people feel about Dixon and Collins?

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

So, since we're talking about 4-7th round targets, how do people feel about Dixon and Collins?

Slide into my DM's and I'll tell you!

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Let me also make a slightly more serious contribution to this thread.

My main cheat-sheet is for a 14-teamer, not 12 as most, so I will focus on say ADP 50-90. In that region I will try to pick up 1-2 RB, 1-2 WR, one TE and maybe a QB (more or less in that order, but I am flexible).
- around pick 50 I like Deshaun Watson, although he is a bit expensive for me, and I see him usually go a bit earlier. I like Landry and Ajayi, who I think have good value. A bit further down I still like Brandin Cooks and Derrick Henry.
- around pick 65 I don't like a lot of players. I will hope for Dion Lewis or Lamar Miller to be available (so far in the mock drafts: no way), maybe Tevin Coleman. You can start thinking about Ronald Jones and Sony Michel if you like rookies, and Garroppolo is a very interesting QB.
- then around pick 80, I hope either Kyle Rudolph or Delanie Walker are still up for grabs. If not, I really like Will Fuller,  and maybe chris Thompson
- when we get to 90-95, I will be starting to look at QBs unless I managed to snag either of the above, but the ones I keep an eye on will come in the next group. I like Sammy Watkins here, CJ Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson. Plenty of goodness for WR/RBs who need a second chance in life.
- round 105 I will be looking at Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and maybe Ben Roethlisberger if I'm desperate ( ;) ). If I didn't get Walker/Rudolph, this will be the time to snag Reed or maybe Kittle, who I think will improve. Crowell and Agholor are still viable RB/WRs to me here.

 

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

He's 33 years old coming off of foot surgery and has more competition for targets than he's ever had.  I don't understand why people are so high on him whatsoever.

They just signed him to an extension & he’s already came off that foot surgery, he played at the end of the season. Now with a full offseason of treatment & healing I’m not as concerned. By the time the season starts it will have happened almost a year ago. 

 

I don’t see 33 being a cliff diving age when you have successful TE’s such as Tony G, Witten, and receivers like Larry, etc that stayed relatively consistent with their career averages at an older age than his. 

 

He is still going to be Cam’s go to guy to in the red-zone I beleive, their defense is on the decline so I see some shoot outs from them this year which only helps Olsen. Cam has never been the type of QB that can read defenses and look for the best option every play, he tends to lock in to certain guys then if they’re not available he just runs it or takes an sack. The last 3 years before the injury he had 80+ catches & 1000+ yards each year. He has at least 5 TD’s every year in Carolina (obviously would be nice for more), but he has a really nice floor. 

 

Besides Gronk & Ertz I really don’t see a safer option at TE this year including Kelce. I’ll take that in the 5th round over guys like Corey Davis & Sammy Watkins all day. Just my opinion. There is always the chance that Cam decides to sling it to his new WR core, but they are very young and Olsen is really the only guy Cam has had sustained success with over his career.

 

 

Edited by Breesus

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Let me also make a slightly more serious contribution to this thread.

My main cheat-sheet is for a 14-teamer, not 12 as most, so I will focus on say ADP 50-90. In that region I will try to pick up 1-2 RB, 1-2 WR, one TE and maybe a QB (more or less in that order, but I am flexible).
- around pick 50 I like Deshaun Watson, although he is a bit expensive for me, and I see him usually go a bit earlier. I like Landry and Ajayi, who I think have good value. A bit further down I still like Brandin Cooks and Derrick Henry.
- around pick 65 I don't like a lot of players. I will hope for Dion Lewis or Lamar Miller to be available (so far in the mock drafts: no way), maybe Tevin Coleman. You can start thinking about Ronald Jones and Sony Michel if you like rookies, and Garroppolo is a very interesting QB.
- then around pick 80, I hope either Kyle Rudolph or Delanie Walker are still up for grabs. If not, I really like Will Fuller,  and maybe chris Thompson
- when we get to 90-95, I will be starting to look at QBs unless I managed to snag either of the above, but the ones I keep an eye on will come in the next group. I like Sammy Watkins here, CJ Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson. Plenty of goodness for WR/RBs who need a second chance in life.
- round 105 I will be looking at Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and maybe Ben Roethlisberger if I'm desperate ( ;) ). If I didn't get Walker/Rudolph, this will be the time to snag Reed or maybe Kittle, who I think will improve. Crowell and Agholor are still viable RB/WRs to me here.

 

What source are you using for ADP?

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4 hours ago, Breesus said:

I’m really liking Olsen in the 5th. I pick in the top 5 so I doubt he’ll be around when I get to pick in the 6th-7th. He is Cam’s favorite target and is a lock top 5 imo. And his ceiling is #1 TE in Fantasy, not much of a safer pick around. 

Maybe that’s his ceiling as in if some guys get hurt he could finish there, but there’s no way anyone can expect him to outperform a healthy Gronk.

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20 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

What source are you using for ADP?

Ah, these are for my Yahoo league with more or less .5 PPR settings (somewhat custom). Good point. Fantasy pros and ESPN (and others) differ somewhat, so I do try to compare between them.

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5 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

He's 33 years old coming off of foot surgery and has more competition for targets than he's ever had.  I don't understand why people are so high on him whatsoever.

 

Agreed, I’d be looking at him if he was discounted because of the injury but there’s no discount whatsoever. He’s a DND for me at the current price.

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11 hours ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

Enough derailing this thread regarding dixon and Collins. They have their own threads for such discussion

 

Did you really come into a two week old discussion just to post that you wanted it to stop? Thanks hall monitor. 

 

8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

He's 33 years old coming off of foot surgery and has more competition for targets than he's ever had.  I don't understand why people are so high on him whatsoever.

 

Define more competition for targets? Are we talking about... what DJ Moore? Yeah I like DJ, he's a talented guy, but the way Carolina has ran their offense the last... well pretty much decade, I don't think the competition is going to weigh in a ton here. If Olsen is too old/too hurt coming from the foot, that's one thing. But if he's healthy I don't think DJ Moore is going to be a huge problem. 

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24 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Define more competition for targets? 

Christian McCaffrey

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A lot of things will change in the coming weeks as new info emerges, but my current 12 team ppr round 4-7 targets (using FFC adp's)

 

- Emmanuel Sanders. I cannot believe he's going in the middle of round 7. I'd happily spend a 6th on him. He's my biggest target. He should kick to the slot more in 3-wr set (Sutton, DT outside). I see him being a favorite target of Keenum regardless. IMO only a large touchdown gap would keep him from out-scoring DT this year. I think he'll cruise past 70 rec, 900 yards with the upside for more. 

 

- Pierre Garcon. While he and Goodwin are clearly different types of players, we saw the upside of being Jimmy G's #1 target Last year. Garcon played at a 80 catch, 1,000 yard pace with bad QB's last year. While I think Jimmy G is a bit overhyped, he's clearly 10 times better than what the Niners have had. With Goodwin lifting the cover off of defenses, and guys like McKinnon/Kittle to keep the linebackers occupied, Garcon should have plenty of room to roam around underneath. He's an injury risk, but it's round 7. He has the upside to be a safe albeit not sexy wr2/flex play every week.

 

- Marshawn Lynch. I don't feel necessarily safe with him given Martin is behind him, but most of Martin's career he hasn't been too good. More often than not, Gruden has one back that clears 1200 yards. Lynch played at a 1,250 rushing yard pace in the 2nd half last year. I definitely think there's 1,000 yard, 10 td potential here.

 

- Randall Cobb. He might be Aaron Rodgers #2 target this year. That's enough for me.

 

- Kenyan Drake. Finished the year with 5 straight games of double digit carries, and at least a 4.4 YPC in each. Now the YPC is misleading because he had at least a 30+ yard carry in four of those five games. However, his electricity is undeniable. Old (yet still reliable enough) Frank Gore and the Dolphins being bad are big negatives. It won't take much for Drake to be an rb2 though, given his big-play upside. As the season goes on if he grows into a weekly 15+ touch and most of goal line role, we've got a low-end rb1 here.

 

- Marvin Jones. The ideal flex player for me. Probably ticketed for 100 targets. Had 10 games where he either had 80+ yards or a td. After a slow start he showed to have a high-yardage floor as the deep target for an air-it-out quarterback. This is the type of guy who'll drop some definite duds, but should finish with another 900+ yards and around 7-9 td's.

 

- Jamison Crowder. I think he'll be a favorite target of Alex Smith, and has a good shot to clear 80 receptions.

 

- Jay Ajayi. Seems ticketed for a bigger role, as the lead back in a high-octane offense. If he even sees over half the carries and goal line, we're looking at an rb2. If he takes over the clear lead-back job, then rb1. 

 

I'm sure more will come. Those are who I like right now. 

 

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24 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Christian McCaffrey

 

He had 12 Targets in the playoff game and I personally believe would still be likely to see more targets than Funchess or Moore if he were healthy for a full 16 games, which puts his volume at an incredibly rare place IMO. McCaffery factors in, but not enough to take Olsen from where he was. 

 

15 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

- Emmanuel Sanders. I cannot believe he's going in the middle of round 7. I'd happily spend a 6th on him. He's my biggest target. He should kick to the slot more in 3-wr set (Sutton, DT outside). I see him being a favorite target of Keenum regardless. IMO only a large touchdown gap would keep him from out-scoring DT this year. I think he'll cruise past 70 rec, 900 yards with the upside for more. 

 

 


Love Sanders. I want him in every draft at the current price. 

 

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I like the value of both Rudolph and Delanie Walker in the 6th/7th range at TE.  I think they have similar ceilings to Olsen going a couple rounds earlier, and fewer injury concerns.  I don't necessarily think Olsen falls off a cliff, but as someone else said, he's not going at any kind of a discount right now, so to me the risk doesn't make sense.  He has always been a steady top-5 TE, which is nice in itself, but we've never seen that elite TE1 production from him.  

 

Walker profiles very similarly to Olsen to me, in that he's a veteran whose played in the same offense for a while now, and we've seen what he can consistently do.  And I like him better at the slightly lower price tag, not coming off major injury, and with potentially a more offensive-friendly coaching staff.

 

Rudolph is going to be my main TE target.  I think he has a very solid floor that won't leave you scouring the waiver wire for a TE (unless of course injury), and in an improving offense with a TE-friendly QB he could hit new career bests.  Relative to the TE's going before him, I think he's better value.  Olsen and Graham are aging and have more question marks, while going 2+ rounds earlier.  

 

The TE position also seems to drop off for me after that, with some decent upside guys, but lots of soft floors.  Walker/Rudolph is that sweet spot for me where I'll be targeting one of them as better value than those before, but just before there is a major tier drop.

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OJ Howard could be a huge steal in the later rounds. This guy was one of the top offensive players In the 1st round last year. with elite talent level. He had some big games last year and I see the Bucs expanding his role much more this year. He has big upside. 

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