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Post-hype sleepers 2018

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2 minutes ago, MovingTheChains said:

John Ross

 

All three games and fifteen snaps he's going to play again this year? 

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32 minutes ago, kingpin_co said:

Dixon

 

Prosise

 

Treadwell

 

Dorsett

 

Those are certainly some sleepers.  I like Dixon and might throw some darts in drafts, and if Prosise could every stay healthy he could be productive.  

 

Treadwell and Dorsett though?  What's the appeal for those guys?  Not being funny, just curious to hear your view.

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Posted (edited)

Dixon is a feature back with an improved line and WRs everywhere.

Hill is on NE.  Dixon gets all running work.

 

If Dixon is available in the 2nd round, you take him.  He is not a sleeper.  He is a top 5 RB.

Edited by jmausen
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, jmausen said:

Dixon is a feature back with an improved line and WRs everywhere.

Hill is on NE and Gio is with the Broncos.

 

If Dixon is available in the 2nd round, you take him.  He is not a sleeper.  He is a top 5 RB.

 

Kenneth Dixon? 

 

I don't even think he's first in line for carries. 

 

I feel likeyou're talking Mixon. 

Edited by taobball
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27 minutes ago, jmausen said:

Dixon is a feature back with an improved line and WRs everywhere.

Hill is on NE.  Dixon gets all running work.

 

If Dixon is available in the 2nd round, you take him.  He is not a sleeper.  He is a top 5 RB.

 

He's so good you can't even remember his name.

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4 hours ago, kingpin_co said:

Dixon

 

Prosise

 

Treadwell

 

Dorsett

 

Threadwell?? He might get 25 targets 

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9 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Those are certainly some sleepers.  I like Dixon and might throw some darts in drafts, and if Prosise could every stay healthy he could be productive.  

 

Treadwell and Dorsett though?  What's the appeal for those guys?  Not being funny, just curious to hear your view.

 

Treadwell - Drafted as a 1st round talent - Mike Clay had him as his 2nd overall rookie in dynasty http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/15520294/mike-clay-2016-rookie-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl

 

 

Dorsett - Drafted as a 1st round talent - Same size/speed as Cooks (literally) - Cooks is gone now... Edelman suspended

 

TOTAL fliers, I know.. but what are post hype sleepers??  Both these guys had "hype"... now they are left for dead... Maybe most standard leagues (shallow benches) can't find room for them, but just sayin... I wouldn't write them off just yet..

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33 minutes ago, kingpin_co said:

 

Treadwell - Drafted as a 1st round talent - Mike Clay had him as his 2nd overall rookie in dynasty http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/15520294/mike-clay-2016-rookie-dynasty-fantasy-football-rankings-nfl

 

 

Dorsett - Drafted as a 1st round talent - Same size/speed as Cooks (literally) - Cooks is gone now... Edelman suspended

 

TOTAL fliers, I know.. but what are post hype sleepers??  Both these guys had "hype"... now they are left for dead... Maybe most standard leagues (shallow benches) can't find room for them, but just sayin... I wouldn't write them off just yet..

 

While I think it would have to be a VERY deep league for me to consider these two, I do appreciate these as being the definition of post hype sleepers. Very physically talented and completely inexpensive. So I don’t knock the mention. But probably not going to make a plunge in anything but the absolute deepest of leagues

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Lamar Miller

 

Played better with Watson under center when opposing defenses had to compensate for the deep ball. Foreman still isn’t healed and is likely going to end up on the PUP list. The Texans o-line isn’t very good, but Miller is going to get all the work early on. He’s currently the 26th RB coming off the board in PPR drafts per FFC. I expect him to easily outperform that over the course of the first 6 games. Houston doesn’t face a truly tough defense until week 7 which also happens to be the soonest that Foreman would be eligible to return if he were to end up on the PUP list. I’m buying anywhere I can at his current price.

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On 7/9/2018 at 4:14 PM, Fort4242 said:

Marcus Mariota - new OC getting rid of the "exotic smash mouth".  Corey Davis is healthy so far, which makes an underrated supporting cast of Davis, Matthews and Walker, plus a combo of Henry and Lewis in the backfield.  Hampered by injury last year, should be healthier this year.

 

Ty Montgomery - excitement last year being the lead back for GB.  Couldn't handle lead back duties.  However, if they use him as a Kamara type of RB - 10-12 carries a game and passing game work, I think he'll last a lot longer and be productive.  The GB offense should be great again with Rodgers, so plenty of opportunities.  Jones is out 2 games so he'll get extra work by default those first weeks.  44th RB off the board right now

 

Jamison Crowder - last year was supposed to be the monster break out year, but it was not for a few reasons.  Crowder is healthy so far, and paired up with Alex Smith.  Love me some Crowder this year in PPR leagues.  

 

Randall Cobb - not really "post hype" per se, but I'll take the second option (possibly the first) in an Aaron Rodgers offense at WR40 ADP.

 

 

 

Mariota will top my list. Most people have him ranked in the 18-22 range. Since I never draft/bid on elite QBs, I am likely going to lock up Mariota as my QB1 in a couple of leagues. 

 

Edit to note that Mariota was ranked in the top 5-7 by many "experts" last year. I stayed far away from him then, but now he will be a steal. 

Edited by wideopen21
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On 7/9/2018 at 8:09 PM, Beerdown said:

Someone explain the Mixon love.  You are spending a 3rd round pick on a guy who hasn’t proven anything.  

 

Could be Jeremy Langford. 

 

I am not very high on Mixon either, but Langford was a 4-5 round talent coming out of college while Mixon was arguably a first round talent that fell because of off the field issues. So people see more upside in him. Of course, when given a chance last year he didn't impress me either but that offense was a mess last year and if it gets straightened out he could be the beneficiary. 

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6 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Mariota will top my list. Most people have him ranked in the 18-22 range. Since I never draft/bid on elite QBs, I am likely going to lock up Mariota as my QB1 in a couple of leagues. 

 

Edit to note that Mariota was ranked in the top 5-7 by many "experts" last year. I stayed far away from him then, but now he will be a steal. 

 

I agree he likely rebounds. That said, I don't think he was just a little problematic last year. I mean he had a 13 TD to 15 INT season. I don't know if I feel as confident as you do going into a draft hoping he's my QB1. 

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On 7/10/2018 at 12:36 PM, fakespike said:

Tyler Lockett

Seems like Lockett is always on this list.  Sort of like Devante Parker and for another year in a row, Josh Doctson.  I don't doubt that all of these guys will have a huge week here or there that will win you a matchup, but I don't see any of them as a weekly reliable starter.

 

21 hours ago, jmausen said:

Dixon is a feature back with an improved line and WRs everywhere.

Hill is on NE.  Dixon gets all running work.

 

If Dixon is available in the 2nd round, you take him.  He is not a sleeper.  He is a top 5 RB.

LOL, he obviously meant Mixon.  But I do think that Kenneth Dixon would be a good late round stash.  He was supposed to be their feature runner at one point in the past, and he could still be productive if given the chance.

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12 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

I am not very high on Mixon either, but Langford was a 4-5 round talent coming out of college while Mixon was arguably a first round talent that fell because of off the field issues. So people see more upside in him. Of course, when given a chance last year he didn't impress me either but that offense was a mess last year and if it gets straightened out he could be the beneficiary. 

I may be biased since I have Mixon as a keeper.  However, I'm encouraged by his finish last year.  From week 12 (4 games, out weeks 14-15) he averaged over 5 YPC and had 7/80 receiving behind probably the worst OL in the NFL.  If you watch the tape he looked like top 10 NFL RB.  Bengals just need to give him opportunity but seems like they can screw anything up.  They tend not to play rookies much.  OL has been improved with Cordy Glenn and Billy Price.  If Glenn stays healthy it will be much better. 

 

Everyone is high on Dalvin Cook and McCaffrey because what they saw last year and teams utilized them heavily.  Sometime have to take a leap of faith.

 

I'll take my chances on him in redraft in round 3-4 as RB2 with upside.     

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On 7/12/2018 at 8:31 AM, MovingTheChains said:

John Ross

 

On 7/12/2018 at 8:33 AM, taobball said:

 

All three games and fifteen snaps he's going to play again this year? 

He’s perfect because he was fairly hyped last season and now you can get him with your last pick.  If he gets hurt again its an easy cut but I do think he gets another chance.

Edited by naholmes

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On 7/12/2018 at 11:33 AM, taobball said:

 

All three games and fifteen snaps he's going to play again this year? 

 

Definition of recency bias

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On 7/12/2018 at 3:39 PM, jmausen said:

Dixon is a feature back with an improved line and WRs everywhere.

Hill is on NE.  Dixon gets all running work.

 

If Dixon is available in the 2nd round, you take him.  He is not a sleeper.  He is a top 5 RB.

 

Image result for price is right fail gif

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Definition of recency bias

 

It's literally not. Now for one, I was being a bit facetious (In saying the exact number of plays and games). But I don't think this has anything to do with recency bias. 

 

He has not been injured once. In his career he's had mulitiple meniscus surgerys and a reconstructed ACL before ever getting to the pros. Now he's had a nasty labrum that he played through for a year and then got the surgery on in December. Sports Injury Predictor had him as one of the highest chances of injury and placed him at the highest predicted number of "Games Missed to Injury" at the WR position. He was reported to be dropped off of multiple draft boards in the actual NFL draft due to injury history. He also, again, concealed the shoulder injury, hiding it from the staff. Not necessarily something that makes me optimistic.'

 

But why look at these former injuries and reports, John Ross HIMSELF has said, according to rotoworld, that "...he feels as healthy as he has since his final year of college." Except for that's like four years ago. Which implies that he hasn't felt healthy in four years. And if he hasn't felt healthy in four years.... well then I don't think anything to do with these injuries is recency bias.

 

Ross is in the same category as some of the other guys thrown out above. I do agree that he is the definition of a post-hype sleeper. He has talent, and is completely inexpensive. But I don't personally believe his chances of making an impact this year are very good. His surgery count is climbing, he's still a very petite frame and size for the sport of football, and as the rotoworld blog ends: his next catch in the NFL will be his first. 

 

So if you like John Ross, more power to you. I can't possibly say he isn't worth an investment at his current opportunity/cost. But when I'm sitting there on NFL Draft Day last year with a Bengals fan and a Cowboys fan, and when John Ross is picked me and the latter glare at each other across the room as if to say "Hey, let's be nice and not talk smack, but you hate this pick right?" and when a player himself claims that he hasn't been healthy for four years, then I don't think it is recency bias.

 

John Ross is similar to Kevin White at this point to me (moreso a year or two ago then today, with so much disappointment). I believe they could some day be successful, and potentially stay healthy. But I also believe they're likely to experience some level of growing pain, and when that growing pain is being constantly put off by an inability to see the field, and when that inability to see the field is a constant, then I'm not too interested in making the investment on a player that, to me, is likely too raw and in not a good enough situation to have a very good chance of success this year even if he were to stay healthy for 16 games.

 

So personally, I will pass on Ross, and I don't think Recency has too much to do with it. 

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2 minutes ago, naholmes said:

You lost me at John Ross’ final season of college being four years ago.  He was a rookie last year.

 

 I know it says final season, and I wrote final season, but I swear to god i thought it said first season, and was going from there. 

 

But regardless about his own quote, it’s the history and frame more so than the actual words that concern me. 

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How does Lockett “always seem like he’s on this list”?  He’s been in the nfl 3 seasons. Year 1 he was a rookie voted to pro bowl. Year 2 he suffered a knee injury that he made a quick offseason recovery from but had his play affected by it last year. This is his post hype sleeper year, none before. 

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27 minutes ago, fakespike said:

How does Lockett “always seem like he’s on this list”?  He’s been in the nfl 3 seasons. Year 1 he was a rookie voted to pro bowl. Year 2 he suffered a knee injury that he made a quick offseason recovery from but had his play affected by it last year. This is his post hype sleeper year, none before. 

 

He's been hyped each of the past 2 seasons and done little with it. I like him this year, though.

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He's been hyped each of the past 2 seasons and done little with it. I like him this year, though.

 

Me too, and to add to a concept/context of a "post-hype" sleeper, when I was making a Baldwin argument the other day, I couldn't think of anyoen on the roster sans him and Marshall. Lockett's gotten to the point where you can legitimately forget he even exists. And he's gotten to the point where he's FINALLY in the best situation of his career. I won't put a big investment on it, but it's a flier I'd be willing to take over some of the more long-shot throw-outs above. 

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