AirForceOne

First Round Rookie Bust - 2018 Edition

1st Round Rookie Busts - 2018 Edition  

72 members have voted

  1. 1. Which 1st round rookie has the highest potential for bust?

    • Baker Mayfield
      6
    • Saquon Barkley
      3
    • Sam Darnold
      5
    • Josh Allen
      29
    • Josh Rosen
      2
    • DJ Moore
      1
    • Hayden Hurst
      5
    • Calvin Ridley
      2
    • Rashaad Penny
      9
    • Sony Michel
      5
    • Lamar Jackson
      6


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Posted (edited)

Looking back at each first round in the NFL draft from 2003-2013, there has been (at least) one offensive rookie bust (with the exception of 2008). Not yet judging 2014 to 2018 (the jury is still out for many of these guys), it does help to temper expectations. It's the season for GMs, coaches, rotoworld blurbs, and analysts to talk up the 2018 first rounders, just like they did in each of these years. I remember drafting many of these guys, and trading some solid assets for others. Some of these guys may have had a good game or two, but never became legit fantasy starters (unless you were either desperate or in a very deep league).

 

2003 - Charles Rogers / Kyle Boller 

2004 - JP Losman / Chris Perry / Rashaun Woods

2005 - Troy Williamson / Mike Williams (USC) / Matt Jones

2008 - Vince Young / Matt Leinart

2007 - Jamarcus Russell / WR Craig Davis

2008 - (No 1st round busts)

2009 - Darrius Heyward-Bey

2010 - Tim Tebow

2011 - Locker / Ponder / Gabbert & WR Jon Baldwin

2012 - Trent Richardson / Justin Blackmon / Michael Floyd / AJ Jenkins / David Wilson

2013 - Tavon Austin / Cordarrelle Patterson

 

Which 2018 1st rounder do you think has the highest potential to be a bust? 

Edited by AirForceOne

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Posted (edited)

When in doubt go with the QB. Factoring in the draft capital used to get them I think Allen has the biggest bust potential. He has high upside too but he was drafted mostly off his measurements and projections and not what he actually did on the field which wasn't too impressive. He didn't play against the best talent at Wyoming and didn't even dominate. I don't care how high your vertical is, how big your hands are or how hard you can throw if you are completing just a hair over half of your throws its going to be tough to have any sort of success in the NFL. History shows QBs don't really get more accurate once they get to the pros.

Edited by Jaw1
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I don't think any of the QB's can be real fantasy busts given their ADP. 

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8 minutes ago, TPowell said:

I don't think any of the QB's can be real fantasy busts given their ADP. 

 

Think he means career bust.

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Josh Allen and Hayden Hurst are the obvious ones to me. A couple others I'd like to see them get through their 1st seasons.

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Because not all busts are created equal I gotta go with Mayfield. No player selected No. 1 overall should not be the week 1 starter the following year barring injury. He has a major hurdle to climb with Tyrod, a great locker room guy, who doesn't make too many mistakes, in front of him. 

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6 hours ago, devaster said:

Josh Allen and Hayden Hurst are the obvious ones to me. A couple others I'd like to see them get through their 1st seasons.

True, they'll be playing the same position in 3 years.

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Not only does Josh Allen have the highest chance, I guarantee he's a huge bust!

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9 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

Lamar

that depends on if the ravens develop their team. 

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2012.... ouch! What a tragedy, let's hope 2018 fairs much better. Lamar Jackson is the one I keep going back and forth on, he has a super high ceiling but a damn low floor.

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So many of those busts are WRs or QBs...

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I voted josh Allen (like everyone else) bc he sucks and got placed in a bad offense plus shady, but an oddball pick would be Sony. People have said he’s had fumbling issues in college (belicheck will castrate you for this) and he has that bone condition as well? Pats rb stable is currently crowded as well so he could be stuck in a rbbc for the duration of his rookie contract. 

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8 hours ago, cdd10 said:

that depends on if the ravens develop their team. 

 

Not for me. Think he ends up a WR.

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I don't think it's too early for some of these ones:

 

2014: Eric Ebron, Johnny Manziel

2015: Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett

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19 minutes ago, smeeze said:

I don't think it's too early for some of these ones:

 

2014: Eric Ebron, Johnny Manziel

2015: Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett

 

I don't think I would label Ebron as a total bust yet. He had a good 2nd half to last season and could rebound his career with the Colts this season.

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1 hour ago, smeeze said:

I don't think it's too early for some of these ones:

 

2014: Eric Ebron, Johnny Manziel

2015: Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett

 

Ebron was a TE1 last year. Not a bust. A big disappointment, but not a bust.

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Kevin White has definitely been a bust so far, since a huge reason to take a player in the first round is so the team can get several productive seasons out of them on their inexpensive rookie contract.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

So many of those busts are WRs or QBs...

 

True, but RBs have had the shortest average career span of all of them.

All of the 2010 first round RBs Ryan Mathews, CJ Spiller and Jahvid Best are out of the league -- but Sam Bradford, Demariyus Thomas and Dez Bryant* are still starters.

*most likely a starter wherever he ends up 

Edited by AirForceOne
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10 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Not for me. Think he ends up a WR.

small chance. he is the best QB of that class. 

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Josh wins this in a landslide. 

 

The Bills fell victim to one of the classic draft blunders - the most famous of which is "never draft a receiver named Mike Williams" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "never draft a QB with accuracy issues".

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47 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

small chance. he is the best QB of that class. 

 

He is too dumb to be an NFL QB

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21 minutes ago, Naboo said:

Josh wins this in a landslide. 

 

The Bills fell victim to one of the classic draft blunders - the most famous of which is "never draft a receiver named Mike Williams" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "never draft a QB with accuracy issues".

 

Tampa Mike Williams had a couple nice years

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

He is too dumb to be an NFL QB

So was Donavan McNabb

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11 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So was Donavan McNabb

 

And Dan Marino. And Jim Kelly. And Terry Bradshaw.

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