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marko from tropoja

John Collins 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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JC is posting some really strong numbers so far this Summer League and seems like he's worked hard on his game this offseason.

SL stats as of Jul 9: 24PPG/48% FG/8.5 RPG/1 BPG/1 SPG in 28MPG

His post all star stats from last season in 28MPG: 11.3PPG/56%FG /8.1RPG/0.7SPG/0.8BPG/1.0TO


What are some projections with Pierce as the new head coach and where are you targeting him this season? 
Top 50 value?

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15/9 with 1.3 blk, 0.7 stl and 0.8-1 3PM on maybe 54%/73%/35% splits would not surprise me at all. He said the main thing the Hawks management wanted him to work on coming in last season was extending his range to three point range, and it showed at the end of last year and this SL. He honestly might be their best player if (when) Schröder's gone. 

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I was on the Collins train all of last year, from the very beginning.  He never seemed to reach the potential production a lot of us thought was for sure coming, but that was mostly due to the Hawks limiting his minutes.  New coaches tend to have longer leashes, so I could see Collins getting a longer leash in turn.  Top 50 is pretty optimistic, but I wouldn't rule it out, either.  He certainly could reach that, but if he's shooting more threes, his FG% is going to suffer and that was probably his biggest draw last year.

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I owned him at the end of last year and kind of enjoyed it.  Say instead of 54% shooting he makes one 3 a game and drops down to 48-50%...worth it i think...he's one of the better big options once you get past the mid-round scrum.  I would take him over similar bigs like 

 

Nance

Lopez brothers

Gortat

Sabonis

Cauley-Stein

Favors

Pau

J-Val

Thompson

Henson

 

But not over players like

 

Ibaka

Turner

Adams

Nurk

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W I L L _ t a r g e t _ h e a v i l y _ !

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If he can approach or eclipse 2 steals + blocks, I think his value could approach that top 50 threshold. He’s a solid rebounder, good scorer, and doesn’t kill you from the charity stripe (shot just over 70% last year). His lack of assists and fairly low minutes (don’t see him reaching 30 MPG) dings him a bit, but I’d love to have him in the back half of the fifth round or later. 

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3 hours ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

have him in a dyno. he looks good for far in SL but please don't be this years Marquese Chriss :ph34r:

There is absolutely zero chance of that happening. :) 

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Don't sleep on JC guys. Hawks gotta build around him. Let's say he is a mini Myles Turner for now. Their game is similar.

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On 7/13/2018 at 9:25 PM, lpycharles said:

Don't sleep on JC guys. Hawks gotta build around him. Let's say he is a mini Myles Turner for now. Their game is similar.

 

Who you think has better value next season, Myles or Collins?

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Just now, marko from tropoja said:

 

Who you think has better value next season, Myles or Collins?

I'd bet on Turner but that's a pretty great question. I'd value them fairly equally. 

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17 minutes ago, marko from tropoja said:

 

Who you think has better value next season, Myles or Collins?

 

Depends...blocks are always highly valued, and Turner might lead the league in blocks...but I think scoring, rebounding, steals, and points go to Collins.  I'm also thinking bigger role + more minutes for Collins than Turner.  So I'd say Collins, especially since he should go a few rounds after Turner, but if you really need blocks then Turner.    

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I am currently projecting top 65.  Top 50 seems a little aggressive--why not simply take someone predictably productive like Kevin Love/Blake Griffin/Vucevic at the turn of 4-5th round? 

 

It does seem like he'll get around 30 mp and possibly 1 3PT.  Collins can finish in the pick and roll extremely well and got better as a passer as his rookie season progressed.  So I would project a fairly high floor and would be comfortable to spend a 7th round pick to get him.  

 

I would favor Myles Turner just a tiny bit more if they are both available.  It seems safe to assume that Turner would be picked first in most drafts though.  

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8 hours ago, Airball B said:

I am currently projecting top 65.  Top 50 seems a little aggressive--why not simply take someone predictably productive like Kevin Love/Blake Griffin/Vucevic at the turn of 4-5th round? 

 

It does seem like he'll get around 30 mp and possibly 1 3PT.  Collins can finish in the pick and roll extremely well and got better as a passer as his rookie season progressed.  So I would project a fairly high floor and would be comfortable to spend a 7th round pick to get him.  

 

I would favor Myles Turner just a tiny bit more if they are both available.  It seems safe to assume that Turner would be picked first in most drafts though.  

expect a lot of rebounds off of trae young bricks lol

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This ATL team is pretty horrendous.  Collins should get all the minutes that he can handle and, with Trae, Bazemore and Taurean chucking up shots without abandon, should have lots of opportunities for offensive REB.  Unless his ADP gets too out of control come draft time, Collins has a good chance to outperform this season.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

This ATL team is pretty horrendous.  Collins should get all the minutes that he can handle and, with Trae, Bazemore and Taurean chucking up shots without abandon, should have lots of opportunities for offensive REB.  Unless his ADP gets too out of control come draft time, Collins has a good chance to outperform this season.

 

Anyone have thoughts on his auction value? (let's say H2H with $200)

Would you spend over 15? 20?

Edited by jay14bay

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7 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

Anyone have thoughts on his auction value? (let's say H2H with $200)

Would you spend over 15? 20?

 

From my experience in auction, $20 is too much for a player in his range.  I wouldn't spend $15 but it's not horrible.  I would be looking to get him for $10 or under.

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42 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

Anyone have thoughts on his auction value? (let's say H2H with $200)

Would you spend over 15? 20?

Depends on who your opponents are.  In some auctions I can see as little as $3 being enough. You nominate, they bid, you rebid and they fold.  If your against industry experts they love to go for the “upside” guys and they will just keep on bidding you until it’s prohibitively expensive.  

 

For me personally I’ve been experimenting more with just spending most of my money on my starting 5 and only saving maybe $25 for my bench so I can make strategic $3-4 snipes here and there.  Otherwise I’ll hit the waiver wire.  So I’ve kinda moved on from drafting $20 players in the 70-75 range.  

 

That being said sometimes I will nominate a player like him early in the draft just to see what people do.  A lot of the time they’ll be taken by surprise and be unwilling to bid on a random mid range player because they want to save money for “their guys”.  

 

TLDR:  I would try to get him for under $10.  

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^ this is exactly why auction is so damn fun

 

I already know one guy in my league will be targeting Collins hard, so under $10 won't be an option. But I might go to 15; his game is that fantasy friendly and the opportunity is there.

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1 hour ago, J.T. Marlin said:

This ATL team is pretty horrendous.  Collins should get all the minutes that he can handle and, with Trae, Bazemore and Taurean chucking up shots without abandon, should have lots of opportunities for offensive REB.  Unless his ADP gets too out of control come draft time, Collins has a good chance to outperform this season.

Eh, I would definitely pump the brakes on that one.

 

Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce:  ‘We’ve got young guys who want to play at their pace but the game doesn’t work that way’

 

Bud's Hawks were 10th in Pace last season. And playing on a team with a bunch of bad volume shooters has never been a good thing for a player's fantasy value.

 

Still love Collins as a fantasy pick, though.

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Depends on who your opponents are.  In some auctions I can see as little as $3 being enough. You nominate, they bid, you rebid and they fold.  If your against industry experts they love to go for the “upside” guys and they will just keep on bidding you until it’s prohibitively expensive.  

 

For me personally I’ve been experimenting more with just spending most of my money on my starting 5 and only saving maybe $25 for my bench so I can make strategic $3-4 snipes here and there.  Otherwise I’ll hit the waiver wire.  So I’ve kinda moved on from drafting $20 players in the 70-75 range.  

 

That being said sometimes I will nominate a player like him early in the draft just to see what people do.  A lot of the time they’ll be taken by surprise and be unwilling to bid on a random mid range player because they want to save money for “their guys”.  

 

TLDR:  I would try to get him for under $10.  

I generally find the sweet spot to be players in the 20-50 range of player rank. Everyone overpays for the top guys, underpays for those guys, and has too much money left over by the time that Top 50 is gone, and overpay for early late rounders. I get like 6 of those guys 20-50, probably 5 of them are reliable all year and 1 is an injury bust, then I spend minimal money on the rest of my roster, half of which will probably be turned over after 3 weeks anyway.

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Just now, jay14bay said:

^ this is exactly why auction is so damn fun

 

I already know one guy in my league will be targeting Collins hard, so under $10 won't be an option. But I might go to 15; his game is that fantasy friendly and the opportunity is there.

That’s the thing about auctions.  If you know the guy likes Collins then you can upbid him which I’m not in love with just bc I don’t want to win the bid only to lose value.  On the other hand if you know your opponents like Collins then there are other upside bigs you can pick such as Jarrett Allen.  If they’re truly clueless there will be little competition. 

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

I generally find the sweet spot to be players in the 20-50 range of player rank. Everyone overpays for the top guys, underpays for those guys, and has too much money left over by the time that Top 50 is gone, and overpay for early late rounders. I get like 6 of those guys 20-50, probably 5 of them are reliable all year and 1 is an injury bust, then I spend minimal money on the rest of my roster, half of which will probably be turned over after 3 weeks anyway.

 

This is the classic stars/scrubs vs balance debate.  I think either can work.  last year, the winner of our league spent nearly all their money (about $180) on Lebron, Jimmy, and Joker.  We are getting off topic.

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Just now, jay14bay said:

 

This is the classic stars/scrubs vs balance debate.  I think either can work.  last year, the winner of our league spent nearly all their money (about $180) on Lebron, Jimmy, and Joker.  We are getting off topic.

Eh, better topic though :D

 

But I agree with the above. If you're in love with Collins, $15 is fine and can easily pay off. I think he's more of a 10+ guy. But that could also be related to my drafting style. I don't really spend 10-15 on guys in general.

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