Stefan

Jayson Tatum 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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Posted (edited)

 

 

MAAAAN I swear to God this guy is new KD...

I'M IN LOVE in his game... so skilful, so elegant, so efficient...

I almost feel bad (fantasywise) because he's a part of so stacked Boston roster..  He already could be better player that Hayward...

Anyways... what your expectation (stats & draft position) this upcoming season...

THANKS

Edited by Stefan

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I think the floor is Danny Granger.

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NBA yes, fantasy not so much. Boston has too much talent surrounding him and a more than capable coach.

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54 minutes ago, sya said:

I think the floor is Danny Granger.

Interesting comp. 

 

A: 13.9/4.6/1.4/0.8/0.7/1.3/46%/80%/1.6 TO's/10 fga/g

B: 13.9/5.0/1.6/1.0/0.7/1.3/47%/83%/1.5 TO's/10 fga/g

 

A is Granger's 2nd year when he started getting 30+ mins/game. B was Tatum last season in 30+ mins/game. Nearly identical stats.

 

Fantasywise, Granger didn't really break out until the following year when he increased his fga's to 15+ and his defensive stats went up. Can Tatum do something like that with Kyrie, Hayward, etc. around?

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12 hours ago, sya said:

I think the floor is Danny Granger.

I am lower on Tatum than most, but the Granger comp is an appropriate one. Nice pull there. I worry a lot about what Tatum's position is going to be. Personally I dont love him playing the PF spot and think he actually hurts the team rebounding and size wise. I also worry that with this team at full strength with Kyrie and G Hay that he just isnt going to get the usage that he probably should. I have a sneaking suspicion he'll be a 15-17 ppg guy with good percentages and some stocks. I am bearish that he'll return value based on where he is likely to be drafted at.  

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5 hours ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I am lower on Tatum than most, but the Granger comp is an appropriate one. Nice pull there. I worry a lot about what Tatum's position is going to be. Personally I dont love him playing the PF spot and think he actually hurts the team rebounding and size wise. I also worry that with this team at full strength with Kyrie and G Hay that he just isnt going to get the usage that he probably should. I have a sneaking suspicion he'll be a 15-17 ppg guy with good percentages and some stocks. I am bearish that he'll return value based on where he is likely to be drafted at.  

It sure is crowded in Boston if everyone is healthy. And we haven't even mentioned Brown and his development. I think Horford is fine taking less shots, but he can't really give up many since he doesn't take many. Kyrie is going to be the guy that is going to have to sacrifice and that is kind of a double edged sword since less usage/role could have him looking to go to his "own team" again when he is a FA. 

 

All that said, Tatum is amazingly talented, but he doesn't force much. Until he starts to grow as an alpha, he will just be in that 15-20 ppg range that comes with the flow of the offense and being really freaking good at basketball. 

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Tatum is going to be pretty much an improvement on himself slightly every year until he is either traded or someone is traded..then he will see a significant improvement in production and slight reduction in efficiency. either way he will be fantasy stud as overall player, top 30...

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, sya said:

I think the floor is Danny Granger.

 

20 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

NBA yes, fantasy not so much. Boston has too much talent surrounding him and a more than capable coach.

 

20 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Interesting comp. 

 

A: 13.9/4.6/1.4/0.8/0.7/1.3/46%/80%/1.6 TO's/10 fga/g

B: 13.9/5.0/1.6/1.0/0.7/1.3/47%/83%/1.5 TO's/10 fga/g

 

A is Granger's 2nd year when he started getting 30+ mins/game. B was Tatum last season in 30+ mins/game. Nearly identical stats.

 

Fantasywise, Granger didn't really break out until the following year when he increased his fga's to 15+ and his defensive stats went up. Can Tatum do something like that with Kyrie, Hayward, etc. around?

 

8 hours ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I am lower on Tatum than most, but the Granger comp is an appropriate one. Nice pull there. I worry a lot about what Tatum's position is going to be. Personally I dont love him playing the PF spot and think he actually hurts the team rebounding and size wise. I also worry that with this team at full strength with Kyrie and G Hay that he just isnt going to get the usage that he probably should. I have a sneaking suspicion he'll be a 15-17 ppg guy with good percentages and some stocks. I am bearish that he'll return value based on where he is likely to be drafted at.  

 

1 hour ago, larfboy said:

Tatum is going to be pretty much an improvement on himself slightly every year until he is either traded or someone is traded..then he will see a significant improvement in production and slight reduction in efficiency. either way he will be fantasy stud as overall player, top 30...

 

Ok. Sooooooo in what round are you targeting him ?

He's currently ranked 51... and at the moment... I'm not comfortable drafting him in that range...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Stefan

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11 minutes ago, Stefan said:

 

 

 

 

 

Ok. Sooooooo in what round are you targeting him ?

He's currently ranked 51... and at the moment... I'm not comfortable drafting him in that range...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redraft i'd probably draft him in the early mid rounds around the 5th...in Dynasty, he should be top 15 

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I have him in dynasty and I don't love that Hayward and Irving are going to be in the mix. However, he should be a starter and they would probably look to him as the 2 or 3rd option when Irving is on the bench or on the floor respectively. As well, they could try to play him on the 4 spot.

 

Also I think that Irving is definitely going to be shutdown well before the playoffs. BOS can afford it in the weak East and Kyrie has to be kidding himself if he thinks BOS will let him get injured in the regular season and just to lose in the playoffs. Should allow Tatum to be unleashed come Fantasy playoff time.

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On 7/13/2018 at 7:17 AM, rob0403 said:

I have him in dynasty and I don't love that Hayward and Irving are going to be in the mix. However, he should be a starter and they would probably look to him as the 2 or 3rd option when Irving is on the bench or on the floor respectively. As well, they could try to play him on the 4 spot.

 

Also I think that Irving is definitely going to be shutdown well before the playoffs. BOS can afford it in the weak East and Kyrie has to be kidding himself if he thinks BOS will let him get injured in the regular season and just to lose in the playoffs. Should allow Tatum to be unleashed come Fantasy playoff time.

I think I am usually forward thinking and looking pretty deep into things, but you definitely went one step above. I am going to counter with one point. Boston is super deep and they are going to coast into the playoffs and they are probably locking down a top 2 seed without extending themselves. But, that resting down the stretch cuts a lot of ways. Kyrie is injury prone, but he isn't the only important piece. Boston can cycle through and rest two of their starters for long stretches and be fine. Plus, they will want to hit the playoffs on a roll. If you think Kyrie rests come fantasy playoff time then I think you need to consider that ALL celtics will catch some rest down the stretch. Plus, Kyrie isn't a long term piece and a free agent after this year. If they break him they don't have to pay for him. And, if there was a way to rest Kyrie and have him avoid regular season injury the Celtics and Cavs would have figured that out by now. 

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Tatum is heading toward being a great player irl and particularly in fantasy where his efficiency and 1/1/1 potential are valuable.  It would make sense for Boston to run out Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Horford. But if they send anyone to the bench it would be either brown or Hayward. Typically 6th men are high usage guards who can create their own shot.  They get sent to the bench where they can be instant offense and don’t need anyone to create their own shot.  It also allows them to hide their defensive shortcomings.  Tatum is the opposite of this.  He is a smooth scorer who doesn’t rely on high usage to score, rather he does it within the flow of the offense.  Also, he’s a good defender, and you want him to defend the best opposing forward.  As such I don’t think he will come off the bench nor suffer for playing time.  He will probably be lower volume but high efficiency.  14/7/1/1/1 with potential for more on good percentages.  

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He will be sporting 4th round talent with 6-7th round output unfortunately due to Boston's stacked roster.  

 

He should once again get just around 30 mp and 12 fga.  Even with a healthy Hayward, Tatum is likely to improve in every category slightly.  Best-case scenario has some unforeseen change effecting the roster and Tatum ends up getting massive minutes (33+) and shot attempts (~15), where he should comfortably return top 50 value.  What that means is that it's quite a gamble to spend anything earlier than a 6th round pick to get him. 

 

In the 5th round it would probably be more sensible to take someone with predictably high floor like DeRozan or Garry Harris, where you would be happy if they simply perform to par.  

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6 minutes ago, Airball B said:

He will be sporting 4th round talent with 6-7th round output unfortunately due to Boston's stacked roster.  

 

He should once again get just around 30 mp and 12 fga.  Even with a healthy Hayward, Tatum is likely to improve in every category slightly.  Best-case scenario has some unforeseen change effecting the roster and Tatum ends up getting massive minutes (33+) and shot attempts (~15), where he should comfortably return top 50 value.  What that means is that it's quite a gamble to spend anything earlier than a 6th round pick to get him. 

 

In the 5th round it would probably be more sensible to take someone with predictably high floor like DeRozan or Garry Harris, where you would be happy if they simply perform to par.  

 

Here's the dilemma i've been pondering.  Comparing similarly valued players like Harris, Derozan, Tobias, Tatum, Ro-Co, Porter, J-Rich...and maybe even Hayward...i suppose it depends on what your team needs...

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

Here's the dilemma i've been pondering.  Comparing similarly valued players like Harris, Derozan, Tobias, Tatum, Ro-Co, Porter, J-Rich...and maybe even Hayward...i suppose it depends on what your team needs...

I don’t think those are good comps in terms of value.  I think better ones are Ibaka, Ariza, and Mirotic all of whom are worse than Tatum but closer than the guys you mentioned.  I would be looking to draft Tatum in that range.  Ibaka’s shot blocking has been declining and this might be the year where it hovers just above 1.0. If that’s the case then Tatum is a strictly better player with much more upside for scoring.  Ariza is on the decline and might for the first time in years average less than 1.5 spg.  If that’s the case then Tatum is better because he gets blocks and is more efficient from the field. Mirotic is probably the best comp and last season he was better than Tatum largely because he hits 2+ 3PG.  However, I think the addition of Randle limits his upside, and he is less efficient than Tatum.  Thus I would put Tatum in the best of that range, but I would rather have all of the guys you mentioned than Tatum.  

Edited by StifleTower2

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don’t think those are good comps in terms of value.  I think better ones are Ibaka, Ariza, and Mirotic all of whom are worse than Tatum but closer than the guys you mentioned.  I would be looking to draft Tatum in that range.  Ibaka’s shot blocking has been declining and this might be the year where it hovers just above 1.0. If that’s the case then Tatum is a strictly better player with much more upside for scoring.  Ariza is on the decline and might for the first time in years average less than 1.5 spg.  If that’s the case then Tatum is better because he gets blocks and is more efficient from the field. Mirotic is probably the best comp and last season he was better than Tatum largely because he hits 2+ 3PG.  However, I think the addition of Randle limits his upside, and he is less efficient than Tatum.  Thus I would put Tatum in the best of that range, but I would rather have all of the guys you mentioned than Tatum.  

 

He's a tad below those players i mentioned however if my team was doing well in stocks I would consider taking him over Ro-Co, Porter, and J-Rich.  Definitely over Ariza and Ibaka who are on my DND list.   

Edited by hipriest69

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1 minute ago, hipriest69 said:

 

He's a tad below those players i mentioned however I would consider taking him over Ro-Co, Porter, and J-Rich.  Definitely over Ariza and Ibaka who are on my DND list.   

He finished last season with 6th round value and he has upside.  So I would consider drafting him in the 5th.  That being said I would absolutely not consider him ahead of Porter who basically does everything Tatum does but with more threes and steals and is even more efficient if that’s possible. Porter is a third or early fourth target particularly in roto.   I might consider Tatum above RoCo if it’s roto and I’m valuing efficiency.  But I would certainly rather have RoCo in a punt FG build.  I think Mirotic is the best comp in terms of fantasy value and I don’t see anyone rushing to take Mirotic in the 5th.  So if I wanted a forward like Tatum I would target Tatum in the 5th and if I got sniped I bet Mirotic will be there in the 6th.  

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On 7/18/2018 at 12:04 AM, StifleTower2 said:

So if I wanted a forward like Tatum I would target Tatum in the 5th and if I got sniped I bet Mirotic will be there in the 6th.  

Tatum was just taken at 7th round in your Rotoworld Mock Draft. I was really surprised... If I am usually surprised if someone is taken too high (like Ibaka or Ariza previous years), then now Tatum was taken too low. At Rotoworld writers early Mock he was taken by Dr A at the middle of the 4th round.

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1 hour ago, apatas said:

Tatum was just taken at 7th round in your Rotoworld Mock Draft. I was really surprised... If I am usually surprised if someone is taken too high (like Ibaka or Ariza previous years), then now Tatum was taken too low. At Rotoworld writers early Mock he was taken by Dr A at the middle of the 4th round.

 

Define how it’s too low? Everybody is healthy (presumably). 

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Posted (edited)

REALLY REALLY like him. But he's gonna need a change of scenery to enter any top 20 talks over the next few years, IMO. I'd probably pick him anywhere between 55-65 easily, and might grab him a bit earlier (40-55). The one thing that would scare me away from a top50 ranking is Hayward and Irving coming back. That team is just SO deep. At the same time he is SO young. 

Edited by Nene

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7 hours ago, apatas said:

Tatum was just taken at 7th round in your Rotoworld Mock Draft. I was really surprised... If I am usually surprised if someone is taken too high (like Ibaka or Ariza previous years), then now Tatum was taken too low. At Rotoworld writers early Mock he was taken by Dr A at the middle of the 4th round.

I was going to take him with my 62 pick but I took Hayward instead who I think is slightly better.  I was intending to take both to handcuff each other which is what i would do in a real draft.  It’s also snake so there’s the situation of where if only 2-3 guys like him he could fall.  But if it was auction I would have big on him. 

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4 hours ago, Nene said:

REALLY REALLY like him. But he's gonna need a change of scenery to enter any top 20 talks over the next few years, IMO. I'd probably pick him anywhere between 55-65 easily, and might grab him a bit earlier (40-55). The one thing that would scare me away from a top50 ranking is Hayward and Irving coming back. That team is just SO deep. At the same time he is SO young. 

 

Tatum can hit Top 20 in 9 cats roto league even on this stacked celtics team. If anything we learned from his rookie season is that Tatum has good shot selection and he is really good at shooting and a lot of times he gets those defense stats due to his length. Another player who is similar to Tatum is Otto Porter , porter rank around top 15-25 through out the season and he finished around rank 20 this season in 9 cats roto.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ber said:

 

Tatum can hit Top 20 in 9 cats roto league even on this stacked celtics team. If anything we learned from his rookie season is that Tatum has good shot selection and he is really good at shooting and a lot of times he gets those defense stats due to his length. Another player who is similar to Tatum is Otto Porter , porter rank around top 15-25 through out the season and he finished around rank 20 this season in 9 cats roto.

 

 

Washington isnt as deep as Boston. 

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Don’t think he can hit top 20 but I think he will be 14/7/1/1/1.  Comparing him to Otto is a losing argument because Otto gets significantly more threes and steals. Otto is also completely unique in his ability to never turn the ball over despite playing a large amount of minutes.  Tatum is nowhere near as good as Otto in this regard and will probably commit twice as many turnovers per minute which would still mean Tatum commits fewer than 1.5 To per game....which just shows how insanely good Otto is at ball management.  Tatum will probably exceed the median in 5 of 9 categories and really only hurts you for lack of assists and to lesser extent points.  This is good enough for top 50 but I don’t think there’s any chance he can sniff top 20.  

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