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tonycpsu

The Home Run Derby "Curse"

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Just to get ahead of this annual tradition of shoddy analysis:

 

SABR: Home Run Derby Curse: Fact or Fiction?

 

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CONCLUSION

 

Home Run Derby curse, fact or fiction? We have no choice but to conclude that it’s fiction. If we consider all the ways that the statistics should behave if there is no curse, we find that they consistently match that model. Certainly, some players will have a decline in power-hitting statistics from the first half of the season to the second after participating in the Derby, but it is clear from the analysis that this would have occurred for those players regardless of whether they chose to participate or not.

 

FiveThirtyEight: The Home Run Derby Myth

 

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None of this means that the Home Run Derby has zero impact on a player’s second-half results. It does appear likely, however, that the decline in results — among participants and the majors’ other top-50 home-run hitters — is due to expected regression. The players selected for the Derby are typically among the best home-run producers of the first half, though they may not necessarily be among the best power hitters in baseball. Uncharacteristic performances help players get selected for the Home Run Derby, and the decline in their numbers in the second half is more likely to be due to natural regression than their participation in the event.

 

MLB.com: Home Run Derby curse is merely a myth

 

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You don't get to the Derby if you're not having a tremendous first half -- but that first half is often so good it's impossible to keep up. Remember that, when Judge or Bellinger or Moustakas doesn't have quite the same second half as they did in the first. It's not the Derby. It's expected.

 

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11 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

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Or on Mad Muncy. No bad juju!

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2 minutes ago, JDL88 said:

 

they banned judge?

 

dont blame them

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4 minutes ago, JDL88 said:

 

Only one AL rep?

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10 minutes ago, Halo Fan said:

Only one AL rep?

Yes

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Well super...I have three players in the Derby. I guess my team will suck in the second half. 

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Posted (edited)

This is going to be so rigged. You know the home town stud is going to win it. It is great for tv etc. Probably be 5 commercials of Pert shampoo during the derby.  You know Harper and his hair?

 

I'm a BIG fan of Freeman, he would be my first choice.  Just a great guy and baseball player.  I like Muncy and own him, nice to see him win it, my second choice... 

Edited by Z06vette

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Posted (edited)

Harper is going to break the 'curse' - he is going to participate and then it will 'fix' his swing for a hot second half

Edited by jahweedum
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6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Well super...I have three players in the Derby. I guess my team will suck in the second half. 

Same, Harper Muncy and Hoskins. Time to trade them... oh wait they hardly have any value anyways ?

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5 hours ago, GC Tacos said:

Same, Harper Muncy and Hoskins. Time to trade them... oh wait they hardly have any value anyways ?

 

Lol. Mine are Aguilar, Freeman, and Muncy. 

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Get my boy Jesus out of there!  I believe in the curse! 

 

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11 hours ago, jahweedum said:

Harper is going to break the 'curse' - he is going to participate and then it will 'fix' his swing for a hot second half

That was kinda my thinking too.  Maybe it'll have the reverse effect for the guys who are already sucking.  Time to see what I can give up for Bryce!

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Bregman is the AL representative?? Why not Stanton, Judge, Khris Davis, Jd Martinez, Olsen, Ohtani, or one of Cleveland guys? Ooof on this pick.

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9 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Bregman is the AL representative?? Why not Stanton, Judge, Khris Davis, Jd Martinez, Olsen, Ohtani, or one of Cleveland guys? Ooof on this pick.

 

Because those other guys are superstitious baseball players. Superstition is as much a part of baseball as the ball and bat and glove, so we really shouldn't be surprised if there are players who refuse the Derby if they believe it has even the slightest potential to derail their productive seasons. 

 

I don't care how many articles get posted showing the Derby curse to be a myth, baseball players are a superstitious bunch. And if they believe it's possible the curse is real, they'll turn it down. 

 

Now, not all are superstitious, of course, or not superstitious enough to worry about any potential curse. 

 

Btw, I did read a fangraphs article yesterday. It wasn't a proponent of the curse, but it did note that the 96 participants from 2002-2013 (it was a 2013 article) saw their ISO drop .026 points post HRD while the league average stayed almost identical pre-HRD and post-HRD...if I read them correctly. 

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^^^ 

 

Ah, I hadn't realized all the other guys had been offered a spot and declined. I guess Bregman is a decent enough pick if all the better guys passed. And yes, of course their ISO dropped in the second half. As TonyCPSU pointed out with multiple articles in the OP, it's just inevitable regression. Players who outperform expectations make the HR derby. Players who outperform expectations tend to regress. That has zero to do with the HR derby. The league average shouldn't change, but the individual players should. 

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I’m only worried about the curse for the guys who make the finals, that’s a ton of swings to be taking. Hoping my guys Jesus and Muncy go out in the first round. 

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20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

.ruined Bobbu Abreus second half one year

 

 

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