tonycpsu

The Home Run Derby "Curse"

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23 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

^^^ 

 

Ah, I hadn't realized all the other guys had been offered a spot and declined. I guess Bregman is a decent enough pick if all the better guys passed. And yes, of course their ISO dropped in the second half. As TonyCPSU pointed out with multiple articles in the OP, it's just inevitable regression. Players who outperform expectations make the HR derby. Players who outperform expectations tend to regress. That has zero to do with the HR derby. The league average shouldn't change, but the individual players should. 

 

Oh, I don't know if they did...I'm just speculating. My apologies for the miscommunication. I've heard of some declining in the past. 

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Players decline participating in HRD all the time.  Some like to take time to rest,  spend time with families, go home etc.. 

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Look at it this way . With only 66-68 games left after the break that leaves less time for things to go wrong . Hardly a half (81 games ) 

Guys like Jesus are already well into the second half hitting well 

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9 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

18 HRs in the 1st half before the Derby then just 6 the rest of the season in 2005.

Also had fewer games to hit homeruns after the break 

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13 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

18 HRs in the 1st half before the Derby then just 6 the rest of the season in 2005.

 

Right. Meanwhile, Lisa Simpson had a rock, and she wasn't attacked by tigers. Therefore, her rock repels tigers. 

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Right. Meanwhile, Lisa Simpson had a rock, and she wasn't attacked by tigers. Therefore, her rock repels tigers. 

 

Good for Lisa. Anyone who has played fantasy baseball long enough has been hit by the HR derby curse.

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14 hours ago, JDL88 said:

 

What an underwhelming bunch of participants. Other than Harper, I don't want to watch any of those in a HR hitting contest. 

 

No Judge, JDM, Trout, Stanton, Arenado, Gallo, Machado, Olson? Bleh.

That bracket sucks

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23 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Also had fewer games to hit homeruns after the break 

The Derby was also blamed for the next two years and he never broke twenty for the rest of his career I believe. 

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7 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

The Derby was also blamed for the next two years and he never broke twenty for the rest of his career I believe. 

 

He hit 20 in 2008 and 2010. He never really was a slugger anyway. He hit 20+ seven seasons in a row from 1999-2005, but his high was 31. And after his 2005 season (his HRD season), he was 31, so he wasn't a spring chicken anymore. 

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Bregman is the AL representative?? Why not Stanton, Judge, Khris Davis, Jd Martinez, Olsen, Ohtani, or one of Cleveland guys? Ooof on this pick.

 

The link doesn't work for me maybe because I don't have a Twitter account.  Can someone list the players here in plain black and white.

 

I take it Freeman and Aguilar are doing it now.  Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!   Don't do it, Freddie!  Aguilar, don't ruin your career before it begins!  I can see a newbie like Aguilar being seduced but Freeman should have known better.  Please go out the first round you two  ... and Muncy as well.

 

Glad the AL hitters (except Bregman) have wised up.  The curse is real.   Judge knew he barely escaped with his mojo last time and said flat out he wasn't doing it again as early as spring training.   Listen to the guy.  He is a judge after all.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

He hit 20 in 2008 and 2010. He never really was a slugger anyway. He hit 20+ seven seasons in a row from 1999-2005, but his high was 31. And after his 2005 season (his HRD season), he was 31, so he wasn't a spring chicken anymore. 

 

Yep, which means he should have never been reasonably expected to double his pre-ASB output of 18, which means it's another case of the curse being ret-conned in by people looking to fit a ready-made narrative to the data instead of the other way around.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

18 HRs in the 1st half before the Derby then just 6 the rest of the season in 2005.

Definitely wasn’t going to be regression. Certainly was due to the derby. How many HRs was he going to hit in the 2nd half if he didn’t participate in the Derby?

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20 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yep, which means he should have never been reasonably expected to double his pre-ASB output of 18, which means it's another case of the curse being ret-conned in by people looking to fit a ready-made narrative to the data instead of the other way around.

Who in there right mind expected him to double his pre-ASB output?  That would be just plain ignorant in not realizing there's less games after the ASB than before the break.  We can call it a Curse, or regression as that data suggests.  Either way, participating in the HRD effects each player differently.  Anyone that has ever participated in a HRD will tell you it's exhausting and takes a toll on your body.  Some guys can shake it off the next day some might be sore for awhile and not perform like pre-HRD.  It is what it is. IMO there is no stat In the universe that would convince me that there's no effect what so ever in participating in the contest. i mean the players themselves talk about this all the time. 

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1 minute ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Joc Pederson in 2015 wins the award for worst second half after a home run derby. 20 HR in the first three months, home run derby finalist, and then 5 HR in the next three months!!

 

Adan Duvall must have been a runner-up then.

 

And yeah what Bugs Bunny (hah) said.  The players themselves say it effects them.  I'll take their word about their bodies and throwing off their swings etc over what anyone else says.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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I'll say the same thing about the HR derby as I do about the slam dunk contest.....put the best players into the thing like the old days!  Much less interesting, otherwise.  Who wants to watch Terrence Ross, Jeremy Evans, Alex Bregman, etc.....  I guess this is partly on the players for turning the opportunities down.  The good 'ole days are gone indeed........

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Players have an obvious interest in minimizing their own role in their (perceived) failure.  The numbers show that there's no statistically meaningful difference between those who participate and those who don't.  We're all entitled to our opinions, but the facts are right there in black and white, and can't be hand-waved away by the fact that some players bought into the hype that they were really a 35 (or whatever) HR player that year when their career norms show they never were, derby or not.

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Frankly, I don't care whether the "curse" is real or not. We all know that baseball is a highly mental game. If the participants don't believe in the curse...then the curse isn't real. If they do believe in the curse...then the first slump they get into post-ASB potentially comes with the notion that maybe it's the HRD's fault. It gets in their head, they press, things go off the rails a bit. Something that isn't real becomes a reality.

 

The mind can make things seem real. Isn't that the basis of superstition to begin with? We know that Wade Boggs eating fried chicken before every game didn't make him a better hitter...but he did it anyway. We know that Turk Wendell chewing licorice on the mound and brushing his teeth between innings didn't make him pitch better...but he did it anyway. How many players refuse to step on the base lines when going in and out of the dugouts? Doesn't make them play worse if they step on it...but they believe it does. Sometimes it's all about the mind, and if the mind convinces you that wearing a gold thong (Jason Giambi) or adjusting your batting gloves the same way between every pitch (Nomar) or not letting your GM watch you pitch (Trevor Hoffman) or wearing the same lid all season (Wetteland, Lincecum, among many others) makes you better...well then you do that. If the mind makes it real...then doesn't the superstition become real to them, even if the rest of the world knows otherwise? 

 

Point being, baseball players are very superstitious. Anyone who was a baseball player or has been around many ball players know they are a superstitious lot. So in their superstition, if the HRD is a curse...well, then it's a curse. The mind, for many people, is far more powerful (and real) than reality itself. Some things can't be quantified by mathematics or scientific study.

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

Some things can't be quantified by mathematics or scientific study.

 

...but this thing can, and has.  And it's conclusive.  Whether the impact is physical, mental, superstitious, or whatever has no bearing on those studies, as they looked into whether there was an effect among those who participated (there was not), not why there was an effect.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

...but this thing can, and has.  And it's conclusive.  Whether the impact is physical, mental, superstitious, or whatever has no bearing on those studies, as they looked into whether there was an effect among those who participated (there was not), not why there was an effect.

 

They can't measure the mental impact that the HRD has on those who participate... If they begin to struggle in the 2nd half they may begin to think it's because they participated in the HRD, and the more they struggle the more that can get into their head. 

Edited by Willsea33
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11 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

...but this thing can, and has.  And it's conclusive.  Whether the impact is physical, mental, superstitious, or whatever has no bearing on those studies, as they looked into whether there was an effect among those who participated (there was not), not why there was an effect.

 

Fangraph's study showed a .026 drop in ISO post-ASB for HRD participants from 2000-11 while the remainder of the league's ISO stayed nearly identical post-ASB. So I don't believe it's as conclusive as you think. We can offer reasons for the drop in ISO (players coming back to earth, and so forth), but their data shows a fairly significant drop in isolated power while the rest of the league stayed the same. 

Edited by Flyman75
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