tonycpsu

The Home Run Derby "Curse"

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I dont have a link  but i rememver an interview with Abreu saying its hard readjusting to mlb pitching after the all star break and seeing all those easy pitches in the derby, if it takes some time to adjust back it could lead to a slump, which is why HR derby participants are can regress after the all star break. They will come out of it but by that time their excelleny pre all star pace has slowed dramatically.

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Fangraph's study


The three links I showed studied the problem from several different angles, not just "players who participated and players who didn't." 

What study are you talking about here?  You mentioned a 2013 article but I didn't see a link.

 

One obvious problem with the "those who participated vs. those who didn't" stratification is that there is such a small number of those who are selected that it would be vulnerable to sample size problems.  But I'd need to read the piece to know for sure.

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

...but this thing can, and has.  And it's conclusive.  Whether the impact is physical, mental, superstitious, or whatever has no bearing on those studies, as they looked into whether there was an effect among those who participated (there was not), not why there was an effect.

 

No it isn't conclusive.  So called scientific studies are only as good as the parameters they set up to measure same and many studies are fatally flawed here and in other realms of life.  These guys didn't even set up a mental and psychologically parameters to their so-called study.  And the mental and the psychological are just as real as any other element of a human being.  They are very real things that were totally ignored.  This is one of those studies that is indeed fatally flawed.

 

Also was it a Fangraph study are you saying?  If so they aren't even scientists so wouldn't no how to set up a study professionally.  They are just some baseball nerds that have become the butt of lots of jokes among baseball professionals from what I've heard.

 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

The three links I showed studied the problem from several different angles, not just "players who participated and players who didn't."  One obvious problem with the "those who participated vs. those who didn't"   What study are you talking about here?  You mentioned a 2013 article but I didn't see a link.  stratification is that there is such a small number of those who are selected that it would be vulnerable to sample size problems.  But I'd need to read the piece to know for sure.

 

It was the 96 who participated vs the league as a whole (including the participants), from what I can gather. What I'm looking at is a decrease in power...which is the primary complaint about HRD participants. Right? We don't just use HR totals to quantify power. On this forum, ISO is used regularly to discuss a player's power, and the study I'm referring to was Fangraphs looking primarily at ISO. 

 

And you could be correct. It could be a matter of sample size. But it doesn't matter how many years you go back, the HRD is always going to be a much smaller sample size than the rest of the league. But as long as they're included with the rest of the league, I don't see the problem with it. 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-home-run-derby-curse/

Edited by Flyman75

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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No it isn't conclusive.  So called scientific studies are only as good as the parameters they set up to measure same and many studies are fatally flawed here and in other realms of life.  These guys didn't even set up a mental and psychologically parameters to their so-called study.  And the mental and the psychological are just as real as any other element of a human being.  They are very real things that were totally ignored.  This is one of those studies that is indeed fatally flawed.

 

Also was it a Fangraph study are you saying?  If so they aren't even scientists so wouldn't no how to set up a study professionally.  They are just some baseball nerds that have become the butt of lots of jokes among baseball professionals from what I've heard.

 

 

No, I was the one quoting the baseball nerds who have become the butt of jokes. Lol. But I think their look into ISO has merit. 

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

These guys didn't even set up a mental and psychologically parameters to their so-called study. 

 

Read the first link -- in particular, analyses 2 and 3, which set up the comparisons in such a way that factors participation in the derby out of the equation entirely, meaning mental / psychological impact is completely eliminated as a possible cause.  Analysis #2 studies repeat participants, but compares to the seasons where they didn't participate, and thus would have no mental / physical problems from the derby.  Analysis #3 removes second halves from those who participated and replaces them with second halves in which they didn't.


You're welcome to criticize the methodology, but saying "this thing we can't possibly measure is causing it" when the study has been specifically set up to be resistant to that kind of effect is flat-out wrong.  You can keep saying it, but it's factually incorrect.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Thanks.  The sample size of 96 is okay but not great for something like this, but more importantly, the decline in ISO is so negligible as to be meaningless.  Nobody would be talking about it as a curse by citing a .026 decline in ISO -- they're talking about much larger declines.

 

Be that as it may, I decided to see if anyone had done a more recent and more thorough dive into the problem, and I found this piece from 2015, which directly cites the Breen study you've linked to, along with the SABR study I originally cited.  Keep in mind that this is by some rando Fangraphs community member, not an actual writer for the site, but let's leave credentialism aside and focus on the content.

 

The author seems to be very charitable toward the findings of these other studies, noting that the Breen study did find a small drop in ISO, but that it did not do a good job of explaining whether this could be simple regression to the mean resulting from the selection bias that comes with the derby selection process.  The most compelling finding, I think, is this:

 

Quote

The results above were mixed. In some instances, participation in the Derby, or success in the Derby, was statistically related to second half offensive decline, whereas in other tests, there was no relation between participation in the Home Run Derby and changes in offensive production between season halves. When using the full sample (N=7,330), the results showed that Derby participants can expect to see a greater drop in their XBPA between halves of the season than those who did not participate in the Derby. Moreover, those who have greater success in the Derby will see a greater drop in their XBPA between the first and second halves of the season in comparison to those who have not had as much success in the Derby. Further, the results showed, when using the full sample of players, those who participated in the Derby, as well as those who had greater success in the Derby, will, on average, expect to see their second half SOPA increase more than Derby non-participants.

 

These findings, however, must be discussed in closer detail. As McCollum and Jaiclin (2010) pointed out in their piece, some of these results may be due to the often extraordinary performances of Derby participants in the first half of the season, and any decline is simply a regression to the mean.

 

In order to address this issue, in testing the effect of Derby participation and success on change in XBPA, I restricted the sample to those who showed above-average and extraordinary performances in the first half of the season. The effect of Derby participation and success on change in XBPA disappeared when the sample was restricted to those who showed average or above-average first halves. This suggests that hypotheses 1.1 and 1.2 are not confirmed, and lends support to McCollum and Jaiclin’s regression to the mean conjecture.

 

This is a key step that the author of your 2013 link did not perform -- he alluded to regression, but chose not to / was unable to design a study that accounted for it.

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I think it's possible the mental side of being in the HRD can screw up a player for a brief spell. I think it's equally plausible a player was due for an inevitable decline and they then think it's because of the HRD. If they hadn't played in the derby they would have declined anyhow but simply blamed it on something else. 

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Posted (edited)

I don't really believe in the curse. Most players are in the HR derby because they are having unsustainable HR success at the break. Plus having a week off of baseball is going to kill some momentum as it is. You can find players who regressed after the derby and you can find players who got even better after the derby. Everybody is different. You can point to Joc Pederson significantly regressing and I can point to Stanton hitting 18 homers in August last year.

Edited by JDL88
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Posted (edited)

From 2008 -2012,  5 all-Star games.  40 participants. Only 7 of those 40 continued their HR pace or raised their HR percentage post HRD.  Obviously many regressed due to over playing over their head.  Just pointing out that regression is common for participants whether over-performing or not. 

Edited by Bugs bunny
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JDL88 said:

I don't really believe in the curse. Most players are in the HR derby because they are having unsustainable HR success at the break. Plus having a week off of baseball is going to kill some momentum as it is. You can find players who regressed after the derby and you can find players who got even better after the derby. Everybody is different. You can point to Joc Pederson significantly regressing and I can point to Stanton hitting 18 homers in August last year.

I’m in agreement. To me this is so obvious that I can’t believe people try to argue anything else.

The HR Derby is full of guys with big 1st “halves.” The likelihood of duplicating that is not good. Yet people hang onto anecdotal evidence (REMEMBER ABREU!!) instead of looking at the whole picture. 

I think we could even run a test. Take the 8 top HR hitters who are not in the HR Derby and then measure their post-ASB numbers to their pre-ASB numbers. I’m pretty confident we’ll find a “collective” drop in ISO, total HRs, etc.

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

.ruined Bobbu Abreus second half one year

Same with joc pederson his first year

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HR Derby should be judge, Stanton, Bryant, Mac Williamson vs Betts, albies, altuve, torreyes

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5 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Fangraph's study showed a .026 drop in ISO post-ASB for HRD participants from 2000-11 while the remainder of the league's ISO stayed nearly identical post-ASB. So I don't believe it's as conclusive as you think. We can offer reasons for the drop in ISO (players coming back to earth, and so forth), but their data shows a fairly significant drop in isolated power while the rest of the league stayed the same. 

 

Sure, that makes sense.  Home run derby participants tend to be people who have had good first halves, and should be expected to regress towards their true talent level.  I would expect an ISO decline from guys like Aguilar and Muncy if they weren't selected to the derby.

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5 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No it isn't conclusive.  So called scientific studies are only as good as the parameters they set up to measure same and many studies are fatally flawed here and in other realms of life.  These guys didn't even set up a mental and psychologically parameters to their so-called study.  And the mental and the psychological are just as real as any other element of a human being.  They are very real things that were totally ignored.  This is one of those studies that is indeed fatally flawed.

 

Also was it a Fangraph study are you saying?  If so they aren't even scientists so wouldn't no how to set up a study professionally.  They are just some baseball nerds that have become the butt of lots of jokes among baseball professionals from what I've heard.

 

 

"From what you've heard."  What have you heard and from who?  Be specific.

 

You've heard nothing.  I guess the multiple authors who have been hired from Fangraphs to MLB front offices the last few winters were only done so to be the butt of a joke.  Please, feel free to post your resume and conduct a superior analysis.

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13 hours ago, pbjfb said:

Same with joc pederson his first year

Joc was already figured out by pitchers coming into the derby. I remember picking him to win even with him slumping because I figured he could still mash the batting practice fastballs even if he couldn't hit breaking balls in real games. It wasn't the derby, it was that pitchers had found his kryptonite.

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I wish Jose Martinez got put in it this year so he could figure out how to hit homers.

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On 7/12/2018 at 1:49 PM, JDL88 said:

 

How dare he dis my boy Muncy like dat! 

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