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Dynasty Rookies: Who is worth the risk?

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Dynasty Rookies: Who is worth the risk?
By: C.J Lee (Twitter: @Thecjlee11 part of @hardknock_ff)

Dated: 7/12/18


As I am sitting here in the USO on my day off I am wondering why I am typing and sitting down on a
computer instead of outside in the beautiful 84 degree weather. Then I realized that I love fantasy
football as much as you (because you are potentially reading an article that just started up looking for
any edge you can get as we approach the 2018 season and beyond). I am going to go deep into my
dynasty rookie rankings, giving you my overall top 20 and explain a little about why I am ranking each
one where I am ranking them.


Ok so not yet. I have to brag for a minute seeing how the first five to ten individuals that will read
this will be individuals that I beat for three championships last year alone. All of the research I do to
prepare for the season translated last year into not one… not two… but three championships.


Sometimes I take risk on rookies that can win the job (thank you Hunt), keep the job, and produce.
Often times I have gut feelings about players as most of you probably do (my next piece will be all about
my gut feelings and taking risk). I always follow my gut (especially when it comes to food) in fantasy and
have had some heartbreaking moments (insert CJ Spiller here) and some rewards (Gurley and Hopkins).
If someone produces off my rookie rankings and you find yourself with success, good for you! If you
don’t, I’m sure there is an absolutely good explanation for it. I was hungry and my gut feeling was
completely wrong. Here are my rankings:

 

1. Barkley: Well duh? It will be a disappointment to be anything other than a RB1. Combine
numbers are off the charts… Every dynasty league I am in someone has traded for the number
one pick overall because of the hype.


2. Guice: Only thing holding him back from really being successful in PPR is Thompson. How much
will Thompson be involved? This kid has the tools to be elite…. 5’11 224 pounds and runs a 4.49
second 40 yard dash. His combine very similar to Zeke’s. One big question mark about Guice is
can he mature and stay out of trouble?


3. Michel: As I am writing this the New England Patriots have a lot of running backs. White,
Burkhead, Hill, Gillislee and Michel. I believe only two of them will make the roster along with
Michel. Michel is more of a gut feeling because if one injury happens he could become an
instant play. He should find some immediate success but how much? Seeing how the departure
of Lewis creates 212 total carries to be split, I’d gamble on him.


4. Nick Chubb: I question the pick from the Browns but believe they couldn’t pass on the value
they were getting him at. I am a firm believer that somehow Hyde will not be on the Browns
next season which will allow it to turn into a great situation for Chubb.


5. Kirk: I like this kid a lot and think he went to an outstanding situation in Arizona. He gets to
learn under one of the best WR of all time who is about to retire in the near future. I think he
gets the torch passed off to him and turns into a stud. I’d buy him in all dynasty leagues if the
price is right. Stash him for when Fitz retires and the reward will pay off.

 

6. Sutton: With the aging Denver Broncos WR corps, I feel Sutton has every opportunity to become
the best WR in this class for fantasy purposes in the near future (Just wait for Ridley). He is a big
and physically WR that I am excited to watch.


7. Moore: I love Cam Newton. However the reason why I love Cam Newton isn’t his arm. A lot of
analysts have Moore as the number one wide receiver in this class. I have my doubts due to the
landing spot.


8. Penny: A lot of chatter about him being a true bell cow. I do think he might find the most
success outside of Barkley for the 2018 year but if Prosise ever can stay healthy I do think he
takes a hit in PPR leagues. I also question the receiving skills. To me, his long term appeal is up in
the air.


9. R. Jones: Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Charles Sims in the 2018 NFL draft. Oh wait, that’s
Ronald Jones II! I don’t understand how Jones will do in Tampa Bay as a workhorse. He will
need to add muscle to become an early down back and if not enjoy the Sims comparison buddy!


10. Ridley: I do think Ridley has the best chance to become a WR1 but it might take a few years in
the shadows of Julio. By that time he might be in the upper 20’s and not a lot of time left for
dynasty purposes. I’d rather gamble on Kirk, Sutton, or Moore.


11. Baker Mayfield: There are only six WR that have finished 15 th or better in the past 4 years and
Landry is one of them. Landry, Gordon, and Coleman is one of the better WR group. Mix in
them with Njoku and I love Mayfield based of his WR group to blossom into an above average
NFL QB.


12. Josh Rosen: I think Rosen is the best NFL ready QB in this class. However, there are a lot of
concerns in the Arizona camp. What if Sam Bradford produces a healthy season? Will they
resign him to continue the momentum until they fix the offensive line and Rosen gains
experience? He has been an above average NFL QB, when on the field. However, injuries have
just about killed his career.


13. K Johnson: 860, 597, 357, and 552. Since Bush ran for 1006 yards in 2013, these were the
numbers since by year. 2016 the leading rusher was 357 yards. You read that right. 357. It is
time for a running back to do something for the Lions. It will be a crowded back field in 2018 but
beyond it will sort itself out. Abdullah and Blount will both be UFA. I can see a 2019 backfield of
Johnson and Riddick.


14. L Jackson: Now introducing the most talked about player of the year. Individuals were wanting
him to try out for WR. That shows you how athletic this kid is. I’m sure he will be electric when
on the field. Just when will that be? 2019 or 2020? Stash and hold him.


15. Freeman: Freeman will give you immediate value because of how bad booker has been and no
other real competition. He doesn’t have the upside as a lot of the other backs but could
surprise.


16. Hines: I can see Cohen version 2.0. However, Cohen doesn’t play with Andrew Luck. I am
curious to see how


17. Gesicki: I am excited to see this Penn State alumni play. I think he provides immediate value and
could become one of the better TE in the league in a few years. Sign me up!

 

18. Miller: When the Bears decided to let Meredith walk I was a bit surprised because they had only
Allen Robinson and Kevin White. However, they picked up Miller and I believe (unless White
finally decides to show life) that he should start in the slot immediately.


19. Gallup: Cowboys lost their guy in Sutton, they decided to stand pat and draft Gallup. He has
every opportunity to start with only Hurns and Williams in his way. Even if he doesn’t beat out
either this year; Williams, Hurns, or both will not be in Dallas next year.


20. Washington: I want to put Washington higher. However, between Antonio Brown and JuJu I
don’t see much success in the near future. Life after Big Ben is coming and with that how will
that effect his value?

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