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Finding an Upper Hand in SuperFlex and 2QB leagues

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Finding an Upper Hand in SuperFlex and 2QB leagues-


By Eddie Board 7/12/18 @edb288 from @hardknock_ff


The past few weeks are one of my least favorite times of the year. NBA finals are over, OTAs are
over and there is just this lull in sports, unless you can get down with MLB or maybe a hotdog eating
contest. Don’t get me wrong I loved playing baseball growing up and I hope that my kids get involved as
they get older but for now, there’s nothing that interests me. As I glanced over the sportsbook on
Bovada, I found myself getting caught up in betting on the World Cup. Just a quick back story, I have
been betting on sports since I was a young lad in the eighth grade. My stepfather allowed me to fill out
one of his parlay sheets at a very young age and I was hooked on College and NFL Football. I don’t have
a gambling problem or anything but I get that rush of adrenaline putting that bet out there. As you are
reading this you are probably asking yourself, what does this have to do with Superflex or 2 QB leagues.
I’m about to get to that just be patient. While I was placing my bet on France to win it all I decided to
take a look at some early super bowl winning odds. About this time a group of guys that I have become
good friends with partly because of fantasy football decided to start a website. (BTW check us out on
twitter for now @Hardknock_ff) My Boss @treynorton83 says he needs us working on content while he
gets the website up a running. I was there already, so I decided to see if there was any correlation
between the preseason super bowl odds and the final QB rankings for the past few years.

 

I was actually pretty excited when I thought about it, especially since over the last few years
SuperFlex has become almost standard in most Dynasty leagues. If I found any slight advantage by
looking at these stats maybe I could change how some people drafted their quarter backs moving
forward. I decided to go back 6 years and see what the numbers showed. The rankings are based on 4
points per TD thrown, 1 point per 25 yards, and -2 points per Interception. Below is what I found:

 

2012 Odds           2012 QB Ranks             2013 Odds            2013 QB Ranks
Patriots                 D Brees                           Seahawks               P Manning
49ers                     T Brady                           Broncos                  D Brees          
Broncos                A Rodgers                      49ers                       C Newton
Packers                 R Griffin                           Patriots                   P Rivers
Texans                  C Newton                        Packers                   A Luck
Steelers                P Manning                       Falcons                   A Dalton
Saints                   M Ryan                             Texans                    M Stafford
Eagles                   T Romo                            Saints                     C Kaepernick
Giants                   A Luck                              Steelers                  N Foles
Ravens                 M Stafford                        Giants                     T Romo

 

 

In 2012 only 4 Quarterbacks that had a top 10 chance to win the super bowl according to the odds
finished top 10 in rankings. In 2013 there were only 3. One other thing you can take from these

numbers, which is common sense, is that if you have a HOF caliber QB chances are your odds are going
to be a lot better than most at winning the Super Bowl. At least in Vegas’s eyes.


2014 Odds           2014 QB Ranks              2015 Odds            2015 QB Ranks
Patriots                   A Rodgers                      Seahawks                C Newton
Seahawks               A Luck                            Patriots                     T Brady
Broncos                  P Manning                     Broncos                    R Wilson
Packers                  R Wilson                         Packers                    B Bortles
Saints                     B Roethlisberger           Colts                          C Palmer
49ers                      D Brees                           Eagles                       D Brees
Colts                       M Ryan                           Cowboys                   E Manning
Bengals                  T Brady                           Ravens                      A Rodgers
Ravens                   E Manning                      Steelers                    K Cousins
Eagles                    T Romo                           Dolphins                   P Rivers

 


In 2014 the big guns had a good year. Six QBs ranked in the top 10 that had top 10 odds at winning the
Super Bowl. Then in 2015 it dropped to only 3 again.


2016 Odds             2016 QB Ranks             2017 Odds              2017 QB Ranks
Patriots                    A Rodgers                     Patriots                      R Wilson
Packers                   M Ryan                           Packers                      A Smith
Seahawks               D Brees                          Raiders                       T Brady
Cardinals                K Cousins                      Seahawks                  C Newton
Panthers                 A Luck                           Giants                         C Wentz
Steelers                  D Prescott                     Steelers                       P Rivers
Texans                   M Stafford                      Cowboys                    M Stafford
Giants                     T Taylor                          Falcons                       K Cousins
Chiefs                     T Brady                          Titans                          J Goff
Vikings/Colts         D Carr                            Chiefs                          B Roethlisberger

 


After looking at the last six years of the numbers shown only 23 QBs total finished in the top 10 of
rankings out of the 60 teams that were projected of having the best odds of winning the Super Bowl.
Those numbers equate to roughly 38%. So, on average only 4 QBS off of the top 10 teams with the best
odds at winning the Super Bowl will finish top 10 in the final rankings that year.


2018 Odds             2018 QB Ranks
Patriots                          TBD
Steelers                         TBD
Eagles                            TBD
Packers                         TBD
Vikings                          TBD
Saints                            TBD
Falcons                         TBD
Texans                          TBD
Cowboys                      TBD

Jaguars                        TBD

 

 

Based on those percentages the 4 QBs that I would look at from this year’s odds are Brady, Rodgers,
Wentz, and Cousins. Yes, don’t @ me bro, I’m passing on D Watson . Cousins has been in the top 10 the
last 3 years and just received an upgrade in weapons. No way I’m passing that up and obviously Brady
and Rodgers are making my list every year if healthy. Then there is C Wentz. I feel he has unfinished
business this year and will continue down his path for greatness. Too many issues in Steel City for me to
take Big Ben and I believe the Saints are going to keep marching it into the end zone instead of passing
it. On the outside looking in I would take a good look at Stafford too. He has made that top 10 list a lot
but Detroit is just terrible. I hope you enjoyed this article and can use the information provided to help
win your SuperFlex and 2QB leagues. Don’t forget to Follow, like, retweet @Edb288 @Hardknock_ff

 

 

Quarter Back Rankings Courtesy of ESPN Fantasy Football


Preseason Super Bowl odds courtesy of sportsoddhistory.com and Westgate Las Vegas Racing and
Sportsbook

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