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Jaren Jackson Jr. 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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This youngster is blocking shots left and right during summer league. He's also hitting 3's... obviously its summer league but he definitely passes the eye test. On the defensive end, he moves and rotates really well for a rookie. What do you guys think about his rookie year? Will Memphis run him at the 4 next to Marc? I am usually hesitant to draft rookies but JJJ has the potential to be something special. 

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I definitely have my eyes on him in redraft for this year due to his potential in BLK. 

 

Longer-term, I think he's a future fantasy stud that's going to average 5+ combined 3PM/BLK/STL per game.

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I love him in dynasty, but I really need to see him in preseason before I pencil him in higher than late rounds. He has a fantasy friendly game and that is obvious. He won't hurt your FT% while getting blocks and that is big. But, I am not making any assumptions on his ability to play high IQ basketball with Conley, Gasol, and SloMo off of a glorified pick up game that is Summer League. If he can be in the right places at the right times then I think he earns his minutes and helps his rookie season. He needs to earn minutes because the Griz forcing his development at the expense of competitiveness will drive Gasol and Conley both out of town and kick off a legit rebuild.

 

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summer league can be deceiving, that's why you can't just judge by checking box score, but this guy is for real. At worst he will give you blks + 3s, a serge ibaka from 2-3 years ago. But he has the tools to be much better than that. Has the post moves, can dribble drive, has the upside to be good at FT%. When evaluating prospects the stats or cats that can easily translate to the pro level are- Rebounds, Blocks, 3s. If you excel in those cats and you get playing time, most likely they will also carry over to the NBA. JJJ is elite in 2 of those. that's why at worst you are getting a 3s / blocks guy.

 

So I'd say floor: Serge Ibaka (this guy was a consistent top 25 guy when he was in OKC)

Ceiling: Chris Bosh with blocks.

 

I think the floor is low, and the ceiling is very high.

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51 minutes ago, sya said:

summer league can be deceiving, that's why you can't just judge by checking box score, but this guy is for real. At worst he will give you blks + 3s, a serge ibaka from 2-3 years ago. But he has the tools to be much better than that. Has the post moves, can dribble drive, has the upside to be good at FT%. When evaluating prospects the stats or cats that can easily translate to the pro level are- Rebounds, Blocks, 3s. If you excel in those cats and you get playing time, most likely they will also carry over to the NBA. JJJ is elite in 2 of those. that's why at worst you are getting a 3s / blocks guy.

 

So I'd say floor: Serge Ibaka (this guy was a consistent top 25 guy when he was in OKC)

Ceiling: Chris Bosh with blocks.

 

I think the floor is low, and the ceiling is very high.

I agree with everything you said, but this thread is focused on next season only. 

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The long-term prospect is quite exciting with JJJ but it's safe to assume that he'll have to slowly develop offensively in the next year or two.  Sure he can knock down some threes, but anything more than about 7.5 fga would be a bit unrealistic.  So what he'll end up with offensively should be more like 10 PTS, 0.5 3PT.  

 

We might want to gamble on pleasant surprise of say, 0.7 STL and 2 BLK (aggressive).  Now that would make him top 100. 

 

This makes him a late round flyer, a couple rungs below "breakout candidates".  So if he's available very late in draft, I would take him and see what happens.  Certainly over low upside guys like Valanciunas or Taj Gibson.  But I would prefer Jordan Bell over JJJ for sure.  

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Going to be a monster, written all over the way he plays. His ball IQ at 19 is scary. Size, length just absolutely freaky. 

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Maybe not.  Grizz may play him low 20's to start, and he probably will foul out half the games, but that's fine.  He's so much better than Jamychal Green it's not even funny.  He should be a very valuable guy with 3's blocks, and some boards too.  

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His offensive game is a little bit surprise to me, have some post moves and can finish with either hand

Although he still has yet to block a shot in pre-season

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This kid is going to slowly grow into a monster this season. 

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He's going to be a foul machine as a rookie. He had a higher foul rate than Marquese Chriss in college and so far during the preseason he's averaging 7.0 PF per 36 minutes.

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On 10/3/2018 at 4:07 PM, Auction>Snake said:

Higher ceiling than Doncic. Dynasty owners should be taking him #1.

 

No way you take JJJ over Ayton

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7 minutes ago, alexstr said:

 

No way you take JJJ over Ayton

A lot of dynasty league owners already took JJJ over Ayton. 

I also think JJJ will be better after 2 years.

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13 minutes ago, guyhaha said:

A lot of dynasty league owners already took JJJ over Ayton. 

I also think JJJ will be better after 2 years.

lmao

 

reminds me of the DSJ hype last year.

 

We'll see how it goes

 

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I thought this guy was a shot blocker? Youngest player in the nba... I think this could be another RW hype train crash. Even if he is the future, why wouldn’t Memphis want to showcase jamychel green for a trade. Not that much of anyone would be interested. 

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Posted (edited)

college stats

Jackson jr: 10.9 PTS, 5.8 REB, 1.1 AST, 3.0 BLK, 21.8 MPG with .396 3p%/ .797 FT%

K.Towns : 10.3 PTS, 6.7 REB, 1.1 AST, 2.3 BLK, 21.1 MPG

 

per 40 mins for college stats

Jackson jr: 20.0 PTS, 10.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 5.5 BLK, 2.0 3P

A.Davis: 17.7 PTS, 13.0 REB, 1.6 AST, 5.8 BLK, 0.1 3P

 

Hype is real. I'm not saying he will be another Towns or Davis, but his floor is Ibaka. 

Edited by guyhaha
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27 minutes ago, guyhaha said:

college stats

Jackson jr: 10.9 PTS, 5.8 REB, 1.1 AST, 3.0 BLK, 21.8 MPG with .396 3p%/ .797 FT%

K.Towns : 10.3 PTS, 6.7 REB, 1.1 AST, 2.3 BLK, 21.1 MPG

 

per 40 mins for college stats

Jackson jr: 20.0 PTS, 10.6 REB, 2.0 AST, 5.5 BLK, 2.0 3P

A.Davis: 17.7 PTS, 13.0 REB, 1.6 AST, 5.8 BLK, 0.1 3P

 

Hype is real. I'm not saying he will be another Towns or Davis, but his floor is Ibaka(Prime Time Period)

fixed

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I still think I am not drafting Jaren Jackson in middle rounds like Jonas Nader did. Because he plays behind really good player (M. Gasol), some others like Marvin Bagley or Wendell Carter have not as good players ahead of them. Of course dynasty leagues are something else, but I am talking about redraft H2H this season.

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