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Fort4242

Jordan Wilkins 2018 Outlook

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https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jordan-wilkins/

 

Looking over a few backfields and trying to find some nice sleeper candidates for 2018.  One that stood out to me a bit, was the Colts backfield this year.  Obviously last year was a disaster for Indy, but I think they've got a lot of reason for optimism this year.  The obvious, biggest factor is the health of Andrew Luck.  If Luck misses time/the season again, I wouldn't want to own anyone on this team.  However, a healthy Luck propels the Colts back to a top offensive unit that can move the ball.  

 

Additionally, the spend some high draft capital to improve the line.  Anthony Costanzo is a former 1st rounder, who graded out at 82 overall from PFF last year.  Quenton Nelson was one of the most elite prospects we've seen recently.  Plus there is still potential on the line with former high picks Ryan Kelly, Jack Mewhort, and this year's Braden Smith.  PFF has them ranked as #17.

 

Lastly, if we look at the Colts depth chart, Wilkins seems to have a nice path to starter level.  It looks to be Wilkins, Mack and Hines competing for the lead spot in the backfield.  Most people think Hines is too small to be the lead back, and see him as more of a "Darren Sproles" type fit.  I don't think Mack did much last year to distance himself from the rookies.  I've seen Wilkins also mentioned numerous times as people's sleeper pick for this year.

 

So why can't Wilkins take over the lead back roles in this offense, that should be better and productive again assuming a healthy Andrew Luck?  Is there reason to believe Marlon mack is a lock for the starter role?  What reservations do people have of Wilkins?  Anyone else high on him this year?

 

He doesn't seem to grade out exceptionally athletic, but a ton of scouting reports say he is shifty for his size, doesn't have top end speed, but is big enough to run over people, and shifty enough to make them miss.  

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Would this be a stretch in any direction?

 

Mack 65% / Hines receiving ~ 15% / Wilkins some small percentage, CMike getting the shot to win the vulturing job wth Turbin suspended.

 

I like Wilkins as a late round grab in keeper leagues because he has the talent to earn a role, though that may not happen until 2019.

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

His value is tied to Mack’s health. Not a bad bet.

 

Why's that? Mack got hurt last year, but don't know of any extensive injury history

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Why's that? Mack got hurt last year, but don't know of any extensive injury history

He's less than 3 months removed from a torn labrum surgery.  I don't buy that he'll be ready for a lead back role for a second considering back/shoulder muscles weaken significantly at first after that surgery.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

He's less than 3 months removed from a torn labrum surgery.  I don't buy that he'll be ready for a lead back role for a second considering back/shoulder muscles weaken significantly at first after that surgery.

 

 

 

I was under the impression he will be a full go?

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24 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I was under the impression he will be a full go?

Maybe he will.  But I had that same surgery when I was 25 and 3 months recovery seems super short.  Total guess, but with all the competition he may rush back as fast as possible which would not likely do him any favors.

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Had this to say about Wilkins back in April before the draft

"Just watched some Jordan Wilkins from Ole Miss vs LSU and will definitely say his vision, patience to set up blocks and balance are all pretty good. His speed is seriously concerning though. Not sure if he overcome that deficiency at the next level."

 

Obviously there are some things i liked but I do believe Mack is the more talented player. Hines should take some 3rd down and maybe some receptions where I don't think Wilkins will play much either way. Hes a guy I would take a flier on near the end of the draft. If he wins that early down role, thats value. 

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2 hours ago, Ravioli27 said:

Had this to say about Wilkins back in April before the draft

"Just watched some Jordan Wilkins from Ole Miss vs LSU and will definitely say his vision, patience to set up blocks and balance are all pretty good. His speed is seriously concerning though. Not sure if he overcome that deficiency at the next level."

 

Obviously there are some things i liked but I do believe Mack is the more talented player. Hines should take some 3rd down and maybe some receptions where I don't think Wilkins will play much either way. Hes a guy I would take a flier on near the end of the draft. If he wins that early down role, thats value. 

 

Sounds like the college scouting report on Arian Foster

 

40 times (pro day):

Foster: 4.69

Wilkins: 4.50

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This guy is ADP around #200 - to me that's waiver wire, not a sleeper. Of course the kid could make it at some point, but it seems a bit early to have a thread for him - for all we know he might end up on the practice squad. 

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24 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

This guy is ADP around #200 - to me that's waiver wire, not a sleeper. Of course the kid could make it at some point, but it seems a bit early to have a thread for him - for all we know he might end up on the practice squad. 

 

Could have said the same about Foster. At least Wilkins was drafted.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This guy is ADP around #200 - to me that's waiver wire, not a sleeper. Of course the kid could make it at some point, but it seems a bit early to have a thread for him - for all we know he might end up on the practice squad. 

 

All my leagues go 200 picks. I'd guess a lot of people in here are in similar ones. Plus dynasties and what not. No reason not to have a thread.

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6 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

All my leagues go 200 picks. I'd guess a lot of people in here are in similar ones. Plus dynasties and what not. No reason not to have a thread.

Agreed. I'm in a 16-team league with 2 RB, 2WR, and 2 Flex spots so I appreciate any talk on deep flyers.

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13 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

This guy is ADP around #200 - to me that's waiver wire, not a sleeper. Of course the kid could make it at some point, but it seems a bit early to have a thread for him - for all we know he might end up on the practice squad. 

 

I can't recall a team that snuck their own 5th round pick as a rookie on to their practice squad.  

 

These are the threads you should be coming here for, nobody needs an outlook for running backs like Zeke Elliot.  Even if you don't draft him, having a little extra information on a guy can help you in-season.

 

In addition he is being drafted in dynasty leagues, bestball leagues, etc.

 

Hell, I've been drafting him in my yahoo 10 team pro leagues and going without a kicker and defense.  I'd rather have a RB flyer this early in the offseason.

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https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/05/07/indianapolis-colts-see-matt-forte-jordan-wilkins-2018-nfl-draft/

 

Wilkins brings a bit more size to the backfield while also possessing some admirable athleticism and speed, something that likely intrigued the Colts. But they were also intrigued with Wilkins’ vision when carrying the ball.

 

So much so that general manager Chris Ballard even saw a little bit of Matt Forte in Wilkins.

 

“Jordan Wilkins, now he is an interesting runner. I don’t ever want to put names, but his run style reminded me a lot of Matt Forte,” Ballard said after the draft. “We thought he had as good of vision as any back in the draft. He had an injury that sidelined him at one point, but he’s healthy and we are excited to get him.”

 

 

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21 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Lastly, if we look at the Colts depth chart, Wilkins seems to have a nice path to starter level.  It looks to be Wilkins, Mack and Hines competing for the lead spot in the backfield.  

 

Hines is likely too small, but we'll see.  It's probably Mack and Wilkins with CMike as the dark horse unless the Colts bring in another RB.  I don't think Josh Ferguson is a factor right now.

 

Pass protection will be critical, Turbin wasn't only the goal line vulture, he also played passing downs because of his abilities in pass protection.  If none of the backs can pass protect well enough, expect the Colts to sign someone...If Wilkins can pass protect and is good on early downs...he could be in line for a lot of work.

 

 

Edited by Iron-cock
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I like Wilkins in Indy. They've already said this will be a RBBC and its clear Hines is your 3rd down back as he lacks the size to be a feature back. Mack has an injury history and is also on the small side as well which doesn't bode well for his health or carrying the load as a feature back. That leaves Wilkins who is a power back that has competed at the highest level at least in college. 

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10 minutes ago, TPowell said:

I like Wilkins in Indy. They've already said this will be a RBBC and its clear Hines is your 3rd down back as he lacks the size to be a feature back. Mack has an injury history and is also on the small side as well which doesn't bode well for his health or carrying the load as a feature back. That leaves Wilkins who is a power back that has competed at the highest level at least in college. 

Is he a power back?  I feel like Mack is more physical.

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55 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Pass protection will be critical, Turbin wasn't only the goal line vulture, he also played passing downs because of his abilities in pass protection.  If none of the backs can pass protect well enough, expect the Colts to sign someone...If Wilkins can pass protect and is good on early downs...he could be in line for a lot of work.

 

I read it as MMack’s job to lose, and I think he’ll do a decent enough in practice/preseason to be lead back (in a committee of varied sizes). But I also see Wilkin’s long-term trajectory here, with Wilkins eventually earning significant time (though possibly not meaningful time until 2019), in part because he has some pass-blocking skills, but these require further development. There’s nothing in his history to indicate Wilkins will not learn / develop these skills with proper coaching. But also, there’s no way the Indy coaching staff will risk Luck’s health to an RB with under-developed skills. 

 

NFL:

“Pass protection was miserable against Mississippi State” (Not sure why the NFL would only single out one game when writing up Wilkins’ draft profile (they did this offensively as well).

 

DRAFT ANALYST.com

“Neg: Not a quick or smooth cutback runner. Loses momentum changing direction. Cannot beat defenders into the open field. Marginally productive as a pass catcher.”

 

RAFT SCOUT:
“Wilkins has some technique issues in pass protection”

 

LOVATO: 24/7 FOOTBALL

Pass blocking - My biggest concern about his game. Being unreliable in pass protection makes it a lot harder to contribute on third downs. I will mention that according to PFF's Pass-Blocking Efficiency Ratings, Wilkins was the 19th best graded running back from this 2018 NFL Draft class. Rarely do I say this when talking about PFF, but I disagree. Not only does Wilkins struggle with technique in the pass blocking department, but he also seems to struggle to show effort at times, which is the bigger concern. He will need to step up in both categories on the next level or his ceiling could be capped.

 

DEVY FOOTBALL FACTORY

Pass Protection

If Wilkins hopes to be a 3-down back in the NFL, his pass protection needs to improve greatly. When Wilkins was on the field, he would stay for all three downs a majority of the time. He was a willing pass blocker but was largely ineffective. He did show the ability to cut block blitzing defenders and have them doing somersaults. When executing the cut block, he does well at staying patient and not attempting to cut so early that the defender can easily step around or jump over him. A few bad habits that need to be addressed are allowing angles for a defender to get around and waiting on a defender to come to him. Wilkins will have to learn when to square up to a defender and when to step up into the defender to maintain a clean pocket. Although he is currently a liability in pass protection, his willingness to block is a good sign that he can become better in protection. GRADE: F

 

13 minutes ago, dogfightgiggle said:

Is he a power back?  I feel like Mack is more physical.

 

Wilkins can handle three-down work (he did in college), but I see it as him needing to prove himself from the ground up; there is plenty of competition (not amazing competition, just numbers of bodies). I like him as a dynasty get, I like him as a late-round redraft pick in keeper leagues, because I don’t see him truly taking off in 2018. 

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10 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I read it as MMack’s job to lose, and I think he’ll do a decent enough in practice/preseason to be lead back (in a committee of varied sizes). But I also see Wilkin’s long-term trajectory here, with Wilkins eventually earning significant time (though possibly not meaningful time until 2019), in part because he has some pass-blocking skills, but these require further development. There’s nothing in his history to indicate Wilkins will not learn / develop these skills with proper coaching. But also, there’s no way the Indy coaching staff will risk Luck’s health to an RB with under-developed skills. 

 

NFL:

“Pass protection was miserable against Mississippi State” (Not sure why the NFL would only single out one game when writing up Wilkins’ draft profile (they did this offensively as well).

 

DRAFT ANALYST.com

“Neg: Not a quick or smooth cutback runner. Loses momentum changing direction. Cannot beat defenders into the open field. Marginally productive as a pass catcher.”

 

RAFT SCOUT:
“Wilkins has some technique issues in pass protection”

 

LOVATO: 24/7 FOOTBALL

Pass blocking - My biggest concern about his game. Being unreliable in pass protection makes it a lot harder to contribute on third downs. I will mention that according to PFF's Pass-Blocking Efficiency Ratings, Wilkins was the 19th best graded running back from this 2018 NFL Draft class. Rarely do I say this when talking about PFF, but I disagree. Not only does Wilkins struggle with technique in the pass blocking department, but he also seems to struggle to show effort at times, which is the bigger concern. He will need to step up in both categories on the next level or his ceiling could be capped.

 

DEVY FOOTBALL FACTORY

Pass Protection

If Wilkins hopes to be a 3-down back in the NFL, his pass protection needs to improve greatly. When Wilkins was on the field, he would stay for all three downs a majority of the time. He was a willing pass blocker but was largely ineffective. He did show the ability to cut block blitzing defenders and have them doing somersaults. When executing the cut block, he does well at staying patient and not attempting to cut so early that the defender can easily step around or jump over him. A few bad habits that need to be addressed are allowing angles for a defender to get around and waiting on a defender to come to him. Wilkins will have to learn when to square up to a defender and when to step up into the defender to maintain a clean pocket. Although he is currently a liability in pass protection, his willingness to block is a good sign that he can become better in protection. GRADE: F

 

 

Wilkins can handle three-down work (he did in college), but I see it as him needing to prove himself from the ground up; there is plenty of competition (not amazing competition, just numbers of bodies). I like him as a dynasty get, I like him as a late-round redraft pick in keeper leagues, because I don’t see him truly taking off in 2018. 

rather take my chances on a high upside play like Chase Edmonds. 

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5 hours ago, cdd10 said:

rather take my chances on a high upside play like Chase Edmonds. 

 

Higher risk considering his competition, no? There’s a guy in front of CEdmonds who’ll play all three downs, and then will even play on 4th down for that one last yard...

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Yeah I see Edmonds as a guy that needs an injury to be relevant - where as I think Wilkins has a shot to out right win the lead back role in Indy.

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