J.T. Marlin

Jonas Valanciunas 2018-19 Season Outlook

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Was actually going to start a thread on this guy before the big TOR/SAS trade went down and am now compelled to do so.  Now has 2 big factors working in his favor for fantasy:

 

1 - HC Casey is gone and replaced by assistant Nick Nurse, who has spent a lot of time working with Jonas and is reportedly a big supporter.  Casey never really committed to Jonas and constantly jerked around his minutes, especially in the 4th Q.

 

2 - His biggest competition for C minutes is now gone with Poeltl traded to SAS.  TOR will likely sign another back-up C (Alex Len??) but it's doubtful that they will have as big an impact as Poeltl.

 

Still only 26, liking Jonas to have a career year this season.

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He’s always been a solid guy for roto who like Dieng doesn’t get his fair share of minutes.  I wouldn’t expect a huge leap but 14/9/1 with elite efficiency seems plausible.  That would put him somewhere in the low top 50 I think. 

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17 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Was actually going to start a thread on this guy before the big TOR/SAS trade went down and am now compelled to do so.  Now has 2 big factors working in his favor for fantasy:

 

1 - HC Casey is gone and replaced by assistant Nick Nurse, who has spent a lot of time working with Jonas and is reportedly a big supporter.  Casey never really committed to Jonas and constantly jerked around his minutes, especially in the 4th Q.

 

2 - His biggest competition for C minutes is now gone with Poeltl traded to SAS.  TOR will likely sign another back-up C (Alex Len??) but it's doubtful that they will have as big an impact as Poeltl.

 

Still only 26, liking Jonas to have a career year this season.

 

Definitely agree w/ the above. The one caveat is Ibaka at the 5 but he's declined every year. Curious who they'll sign now that Poetl is gone. Len is an option and I guess Monroe is as well in addition to bringing Bebe back

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17 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

He’s always been a solid guy for roto who like Dieng doesn’t get his fair share of minutes.  I wouldn’t expect a huge leap but 14/9/1 with elite efficiency seems plausible.  That would put him somewhere in the low top 50 I think. 

 

He was ranked #50 in the last 3 months of last year while playing under 24 min/gm. If we are expecting an increase in minutes then those numbers are his floor, he started shooting more 3's and has traditionally been a better ft shooter. 

 

50 0.18 Last 3 Months TOR 41 23.8 14.1 0.6 9.1 1.5 0.4 1.1 .576 9.9 .773 2.7 1.6
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15 minutes ago, chaiway said:

 

He was ranked #50 in the last 3 months of last year while playing under 24 min/gm. If we are expecting an increase in minutes then those numbers are his floor, he started shooting more 3's and has traditionally been a better ft shooter. 

 

50 0.18 Last 3 Months TOR 41 23.8 14.1 0.6 9.1 1.5 0.4 1.1 .576 9.9 .773 2.7 1.6

Agreed, if he starts seeing 30 MPG (definitely a possibility) then top 40 fantasy #'s should be expected.

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Posted (edited)

It's not only the minutes but also the way he was misused. Even in 25 mins I believe his numbers will be better. If he approaches 28-30 he will be gold for roto.

Edited by RipCity0
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Not high on Valanciunas.  After six seasons of averaging roughly 26 mp you have to think it's not just the coach.  

 

Jonas has shown a pretty slumbering motor for the NBA, especially on the defensive end.  If you look beyond his seemingly great efficiencies, you have to see that he has some of the absolute worst AST and STL numbers among all players.  He also doesn't attempt enough FT for his excellent ft% to matter much.  People see under 1 AST and STL and don't think twice about it because these numbers are typically low for C's anyway.  But if you adjust the numbers into percentiles among all players it reveals Valanciunas to be truly awful especially for H2H, where he has been outside the top 100 on a yearly basis.  During  his strong run late last season, that improved enough to crack the top 80.   

 

In H2H I would place him as only slightly better than someone like Derick Favors or Taj Gibson.  

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The offense we ran didn't really get him assists though. And although he's below average in steals, you can't compare bigs to guards for certain cats. That's what h2h is for, making up cats from other positions.

Interested to see him with Green and Kawhi, maybe Green can shoot again.

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2 minutes ago, tongs said:

The offense we ran didn't really get him assists though. And although he's below average in steals, you can't compare bigs to guards for certain cats. That's what h2h is for, making up cats from other positions.

Interested to see him with Green and Kawhi, maybe Green can shoot again.

This is an aside but I think Green will be good again.  I read that Pop was really critical of him in recent years.  Have no idea why because the dude won them a title and was pretty much playing to his maximum capacity.  He’s not a star player and relies on others to give him his shot.  Meanwhile he plays great defense on the other end of the court so it’s really bizarre to single him out.  I think Pop has a tendency to single one dude as an example, like he did with Parker, and just rag on him constantly.

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1 hour ago, Airball B said:

Not high on Valanciunas.  After six seasons of averaging roughly 26 mp you have to think it's not just the coach.  

 

Jonas has shown a pretty slumbering motor for the NBA, especially on the defensive end.  If you look beyond his seemingly great efficiencies, you have to see that he has some of the absolute worst AST and STL numbers among all players.  He also doesn't attempt enough FT for his excellent ft% to matter much.  People see under 1 AST and STL and don't think twice about it because these numbers are typically low for C's anyway.  But if you adjust the numbers into percentiles among all players it reveals Valanciunas to be truly awful especially for H2H, where he has been outside the top 100 on a yearly basis.  During  his strong run late last season, that improved enough to crack the top 80.   

 

In H2H I would place him as only slightly better than someone like Derick Favors or Taj Gibson.  

 

You sure airballed this analysis!

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Don't reach. I think the reason Jonas gets limited minutes is because he's a minus defender at the 5 and his stamina is lacking. Maybe I'm wrong. I've drafted him before and I'll draft him again. But it sounds like some of you are willing to take him a round early based on potential that I don't even think is there. Don't fall into that trap. 

 

Casey gave Val plenty of opportunity. Maybe Nurse likes him even more, but I wouldn't bet on it giving him 30 mpg or anything. He was a little better this season, and Casey played him more because of it. Far from a James Johnson situation. 

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On 7/18/2018 at 7:19 AM, El_Chingon said:

 

You sure airballed this analysis!

 

     
   Jonas -  12.7
  56.8
 
  8.6
  1.1
  0.4
  0.9

 

Taj -   12.2    
57.7
   
7.1
  1.2
   0.8
   0.7

 

 

Pretty much the same player except you can get Taj about 4-5 rounds later.   Save your money.  

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8 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

     
   Jonas -  12.7
  56.8
 
  8.6
  1.1
  0.4
  0.9

 

Taj -   12.2    
57.7
   
7.1
  1.2
   0.8
   0.7

 

 

Pretty much the same player except you can get Taj about 4-5 rounds later.   Save your money.  

Taj is old and on the decline....jonas still only 26.  Nurse is now the head coach and will feature him more.  Poetl is gone.  Fantasy projections involve more than just chasing boxscores.

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26 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

Taj is old and on the decline....jonas still only 26.  Nurse is now the head coach and will feature him more.  Poetl is gone.  Fantasy projections involve more than just chasing boxscores.

Toronto supporter here. They won't give that many minutes to Val when it counts. He is an old school player like Vuc, no rim protection and you have to Chuck him the ball on offense (Vuc has a three now). I figure they find some special small ball lineups in Toronto.

 

I got Taj  basically for free last year. So I am biased towards him too.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

Taj is old and on the decline....jonas still only 26.  Nurse is now the head coach and will feature him more.  Poetl is gone.  Fantasy projections involve more than just chasing boxscores.

 

He played a career high 33 minutes last year and thibs is still in charge and apparently loves him.  Set career highs with 57% shooting, 7 reb, 0.8 stls, 12 ppg (2nd highest of career).   Setting career highs means you're not declining.  He is however declining in blocks, which drags his value down.  This year I don't see any reason he doesn't replicate those stats, which basically makes him J-Val.  We'll see how the new coach / rotation works out, but it's not like J-Val is gonna see a huge breakout. 

Edited by hipriest69

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8 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

He played a career high 33 minutes last year and thibs is still in charge and apparently loves him.  Set career highs with 57% shooting, 7 reb, 0.8 stls, 12 ppg (2nd highest of career).   Setting career highs means you're not declining.  He is however declining in blocks, which drags his value down.  This year I don't see any reason he doesn't replicate those stats, which basically makes him J-Val.  We'll see how the new coach / rotation works out, but it's not like J-Val is gonna see a huge breakout. 

 

Last year was Taj's ceiling and he is a year older.  Jonas is several years younger and his situation has changed with Nurse taking over as HC.  Also he is now the only true center on the roster with Poetl leaving and should get more than the 22 minutes he averaged last season.  Nurse will get Jonas more involved so he should carry more value than taj.

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22 hours ago, rob0403 said:

Toronto supporter here. They won't give that many minutes to Val when it counts. He is an old school player like Vuc, no rim protection and you have to Chuck him the ball on offense (Vuc has a three now). I figure they find some special small ball lineups in Toronto.

 

I got Taj  basically for free last year. So I am biased towards him too.

They will play some small ball with siakam and ibaka at the 5.  That said, val should still get closer to 28 minutes as opposed to the 22 minutes he averaged last year. 

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With Toronto adding Kawhi/Green paired with Lowry, OG and Siakim/Ibaka, they can switch and defend almost every position on the PnR. I think Jonas is a defensive liability as well, they'll probably play Siakim more this season and keep Jonas with his usual minutes played. I really think Toronto is gonna end up as one of the best defensive teams next season when it's all said and done. And not bc of Jonas, lol.

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1 hour ago, spd2base said:

With Toronto adding Kawhi/Green paired with Lowry, OG and Siakim/Ibaka, they can switch and defend almost every position on the PnR. I think Jonas is a defensive liability as well, they'll probably play Siakim more this season and keep Jonas with his usual minutes played. I really think Toronto is gonna end up as one of the best defensive teams next season when it's all said and done. And not bc of Jonas, lol.

Siakam can't play center right now though. He exclusively played power forward last year. He'd need plenty of work before he could play center. Ibaka is the one who will be getting increased minutes there. We'll see how much more intelligent Nurse is than Casey, because Ibaka looked completely useless in the playoffs, and maybe he'd rather try literally anything else in the middle as opposed to playing Ibaka.

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Today's NBA doesn't really run with true Cs anymore though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Siakim at the 5 in some lineups. I guess we'll have to just wait and see.

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51 minutes ago, spd2base said:

Today's NBA doesn't really run with true Cs anymore though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Siakim at the 5 in some lineups. I guess we'll have to just wait and see.

It's not a true centers thing, he didn’t play center. He simply needs work. He doesn't rebound or protect the rim well enough to play center. After Larry Nance's rookie season I was banging the drum for him to get center minutes and, lo and behold. Toronto will get killed if he plays the way he did last year. He needs to work at it and at least get better at securing defensive boards. The only thing working in his favor is that Ibaka looks washed, but the organization seems to be using the sunk cost fallacy there, so we'll see. Regardless, what matters is that JV is a much better option at center than anyone else on the team right now. 

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On 2018/7/21 at 10:42 PM, El_Chingon said:

Taj is old and on the decline....jonas still only 26.  Nurse is now the head coach and will feature him more.  Poetl is gone.  Fantasy projections involve more than just chasing boxscores.

 

I dont think people are actually saying Taj is better than J-Val, because everyone would take J-Val before Taj.

But the point is, although J-Val is a stronger fantasy option, it's not by a wide margin, in fact it's quite narrow.

So in comparison of their estimated ADP it makes sense to take Taj a few rounds later for value as you are not really giving up much.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, blob2004 said:

 

I dont think people are actually saying Taj is better than J-Val, because everyone would take J-Val before Taj.

But the point is, although J-Val is a stronger fantasy option, it's not by a wide margin, in fact it's quite narrow.

So in comparison of their estimated ADP it makes sense to take Taj a few rounds later for value as you are not really giving up much.

 

I get the point they were trying to make, but I disagree.  They quoted last season's numbers assuming both players' numbers next season will be exactly the same as last season.  Situations change.  Fantasy is about predicting the future more than living in the past.

Edited by El_Chingon
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