J.T. Marlin

Jonas Valanciunas 2018-19 Season Outlook

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

I get the point they were trying to make, but I disagree.  They quoted last season's numbers assuming both players' numbers next season will be exactly the same as last season.  Situations change.  Fantasy is about predicting the future more than living in the past.

 

I totally get it.  I think the case detractors are making is that they've seen the past and there's no reason that any change will provide a huge bump in JV's numbers (nothing can save him!).  Say he does play more minutes...do you think he jumps from 22 min/game to 28-30?  If so, what does that mean...probably a solid 1 block versus 0.8/0.9.  Maybe closer to 10 rebounds?  

 

So is it safe to predict floor of 20 minutes. 

 

10 points, 8.5 reb, 0.5 assists, 0.3 stls, 0.8 blocks, excellent percentages, maybe a couple threes sprinkled in throughout the season.  

 

That's still great value!

 

What's his ceiling?

 

14 points, 10 reb, 1 assist, 0.5 stls, 1 block, excellent percentages, low TO, maybe he hits 0.5 threes.  

 

That's pretty good too, but not a huge upside jump.  I'd be more likely to bite in roto than h2h.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I think the people in JV's corner are just overselling his case, and aspects of it like actual improvement or added usage. I think 28 minutes is very reasonable which is a 30% bump in minutes and would shoot his fantasy value up equally presumably, and he's always a little undervalued on draft day, in part because he's an efficient big and in part because he's hella boring. So yeah, just kind of a weird argument to watch unfold. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/24/2018 at 2:52 PM, miasma16 said:

Yeah I think the people in JV's corner are just overselling his case, and aspects of it like actual improvement or added usage. I think 28 minutes is very reasonable which is a 30% bump in minutes and would shoot his fantasy value up equally presumably, and he's always a little undervalued on draft day, in part because he's an efficient big and in part because he's hella boring. So yeah, just kind of a weird argument to watch unfold. 

 

That is classic Valanciunas fandom. I think he has the most cycloptic fans in the whole league. #TheHive

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18/7/2018 at 6:19 PM, Airball B said:

Not high on Valanciunas.  After six seasons of averaging roughly 26 mp you have to think it's not just the coach.  

 

Jonas has shown a pretty slumbering motor for the NBA, especially on the defensive end.  If you look beyond his seemingly great efficiencies, you have to see that he has some of the absolute worst AST and STL numbers among all players.  He also doesn't attempt enough FT for his excellent ft% to matter much.  People see under 1 AST and STL and don't think twice about it because these numbers are typically low for C's anyway.  But if you adjust the numbers into percentiles among all players it reveals Valanciunas to be truly awful especially for H2H, where he has been outside the top 100 on a yearly basis.  During  his strong run late last season, that improved enough to crack the top 80.   

 

In H2H I would place him as only slightly better than someone like Derick Favors or Taj Gibson.  

 

I agree with you that his AST and STL are terribly low, and I don't think he's going to be any better than he has been over the last few years, he basically had the same exact numbers for 5 straight seasons. But... what rankings are you talking about? He's never been ranked lower than #69 in 9 cat lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm targeting this guy, don't see any way he plays fewer minutes so his ceiling is top 75. On the off chance Nurse trusts him and expands his role can be some serious value there. 

 

Way better than Gibson, and Derick considering their roles are defined and there's no real possibility of them expanding.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He’s whatever.  The center version of Darren Collison.  Yet I will still draft either of them if they fall far enough in 9 cat roto.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

He’s whatever.  The center version of Darren Collison.  Yet I will still draft either of them if they fall far enough in 9 cat roto.

 

Define far enough, if you don't mind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

75.

 

For both Jonas and Collison?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

For both Jonas and Collison?

About that but it’s all team dependent.  If your team is already efficient then it makes sense to draft a low volume efficient guy so as to not screw up what you have going.  But if you’re punting any efficiency cat these guys are not sexy at all as they don’t have enough volume to make up for a weakness in any category and their counting stats aren’t impressive.  Also keep in mind that these guys have little to no trade value.  That’s a lesson I learned the hard way.  When you’re good at finding unappreciated assets well keep in mind that they’re underappreciated.  If you draft them you’re never getting equivalent return on the trade market.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

J-Val is the #1 player on my NEVER AGAIN list.

 

He was the biggest headache on my team last year.

 

You never know when this guy is going to get 30 minutes and when he's going to get 12 minutes.

 

He'll have a 18/13 game, then follow it up with 3 straight games where he gets under 25 minutes and averages 8/5. 

 

Never again.  Ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, alexstr said:

J-Val is the #1 player on my NEVER AGAIN list.

 

He was the biggest headache on my team last year.

 

You never know when this guy is going to get 30 minutes and when he's going to get 12 minutes.

 

He'll have a 18/13 game, then follow it up with 3 straight games where he gets under 25 minutes and averages 8/5. 

 

Never again.  Ever.

 

Casey is gone

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Boogie Buckets said:

JVal’s upside completely eclipses Darren Collison’s lol

Jvals upside is 14/10 with one complete block or at most 1.2.  No assists, steals, or threes.  As far as counting stats go he will exceed the median in only two: rebounds and blocks.  But he will do so while being efficient across the board.  Collison is a 13/6 apg 1.3 3pg 1.3 spg little.  He also happens to have one of the best A/To ratios in the league and shot the best from the three point line.  3PT% and A/To ratio may not be relevant in 9 cat but there are leagues that count those stats and at least Collison is special in something while JV really isn’t.  Perhaps you think that Reke will cut into Collison’s value while JVal will improve this season and that’s a fair argument.  I would prefer Jval in fantasy due to the scarcity of centers.  Conversely, not that it’s relevant, but I think Collison is a much better real life player.  A point guard who is careful with the ball and makes the most out of his possessions is cardinal to success even if it doesn’t show up on the stat sheet.  But it’s out of sorts to speak about upside with either of them bc neither of them have any sort of real upside for fantasy.  Even with more minutes, assuming he gets more minutes, I’ll bet you JVal never exceeds 14/10 with 1.2 blocks.  So I would say they’re fairly comparable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

he could finally have a breakout year without casey honey dicking him around. his production should rival that of towns if his 3 point arsenal finally gets the green light. 

 

24 ppg 15 reb 2 threes and 3 stocks on superb efficiency. thats good for top 5 value. taking him where he stands in the late middle rounds is an insane bargin even if his floor is 10 & 10 and a triple 1 with the same efficiency. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

he could finally have a breakout year without casey honey dicking him around. his production should rival that of towns if his 3 point arsenal finally gets the green light. 

 

24 ppg 15 reb 2 threes and 3 stocks on superb efficiency. thats good for top 5 value. taking him where he stands in the late middle rounds is an insane bargin even if his floor is 10 & 10 and a triple 1 with the same efficiency. 

You get a like only because of the term “honey dicking”.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Casey gone but in the first game I saw Vala sitting on the bench

I know it's just preseason and this coach recently praised him

But I also think he's in love with small ball and Ibaka is the 5 for that kind of game

 

Edited by LosingEffort

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

he could finally have a breakout year without casey honey dicking him around. his production should rival that of towns if his 3 point arsenal finally gets the green light. 

 

24 ppg 15 reb 2 threes and 3 stocks on superb efficiency. thats good for top 5 value. taking him where he stands in the late middle rounds is an insane bargin even if his floor is 10 & 10 and a triple 1 with the same efficiency. 

WAIT. You think he could become last years Demarcus Cousins, with Lowry and Kawhi on the team? Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, PaddyAustralia said:

WAIT. You think he could become last years Demarcus Cousins, with Lowry and Kawhi on the team? Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnn.

 

He's not a starter.. he can be the offensive focal point in the second unit so maybe he could produce but in limited minutes (20-25 mpg) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a raptors fan I can tell you this is the year, if there is any to draft him high. Nurse loves him as opposed to Casey not even wanting to play him in the 4th. I think he produces big this year 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.