RedDogNamedClippers

DeMar DeRozan Season Thread 2018-2019

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What do we expect here with the change of scenery? Spurs are lacking in the wing department (whether they bring Manu back or not). Most of their players lack a three point shot (excluding Bellineli & Mills both bench players). He put up 23/5/3 on 45% last year beside Lowry, so with a lacking backcourt, he probably gets closer to 35 minutes per game and maybe higher Points per game with less efficiency? Aldridge takes some slack off his shoulder and we'll see how Gay progresses but the Spurs are not built like Lowry, Ibaka and don't have a good 3 & D guy like OB.

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11 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

What do we expect here with the change of scenery? Spurs are lacking in the wing department (whether they bring Manu back or not). Most of their players lack a three point shot (excluding Bellineli & Mills both bench players). He put up 23/5/3 on 45% last year beside Lowry, so with a lacking backcourt, he probably gets closer to 35 minutes per game and maybe higher Points per game with less efficiency? Aldridge takes some slack off his shoulder and we'll see how Gay progresses but the Spurs are not built like Lowry, Ibaka and don't have a good 3 & D guy like OB.

I don’t think he will score more ppg because I think he’s already maximizing his potential in that regard.  His problem in terms of fantasy value is that he can’t realistically do better than he was doing in Toronto because there is no way he can score 25ppg+ as a spur and he lacks threes and stocks which caps his upside.  Not to mention Pop is notorious for running his players fewer mpg and giving them more rest days.  I expect a significant drop in value at to something like 20/4/4 with 1 spg and more missed games.  That would put him somewhere around 60-70 in the player rater.  

Edited by StifleTower2
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13 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

What do we expect here with the change of scenery? Spurs are lacking in the wing department (whether they bring Manu back or not). Most of their players lack a three point shot (excluding Bellineli & Mills both bench players). He put up 23/5/3 on 45% last year beside Lowry, so with a lacking backcourt, he probably gets closer to 35 minutes per game and maybe higher Points per game with less efficiency? Aldridge takes some slack off his shoulder and we'll see how Gay progresses but the Spurs are not built like Lowry, Ibaka and don't have a good 3 & D guy like OB.

Agreed with Stifle. MPG will be significantly lower, no way Pop gives him that many minutes. You assume they don't have great depth at the position, but they do. Because they're the Spurs. Somebody will step up. PPG will be down because Pop won't put up with Derozan's terrible shot selection and will bench him if it continues. I don't expect he'll have to. His efficiency will go up, and he'll either learn to hit 3s or he won't be allowed to take them. 

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27 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

 

I don’t think he will score more ppg because I think he’s already maximizing his potential in that regard.  His problem in terms of fantasy value is that he can’t realistically do better than he was doing in Toronto because there is no way he can score 25ppg+ as a spur and he lacks threes and stocks which caps his upside.  Not to mention Pop is notorious for running his players fewer mpg and giving them more rest days.  I expect a significant drop in value at to something like 20/4/4 with 1 spg and more missed games.  That would put him somewhere around 60-70 in the player rater.  

 

This is true however, if I envision Pop he is still going to want to try and make the playoffs. Yes there may be a few games where the MPG might be lower, but I doubt he is going to rely heavily on White/Walker & Belinelli. Especially to a guy who makes that much per season. Pop doesn’t like rookies.

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3 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

This is true however, if I envision Pop he is still going to want to try and make the playoffs. Yes there may be a few games where the MPG might be lower, but I doubt he is going to rely heavily on White/Walker & Belinelli. Especially to a guy who makes that much per season. Pop doesn’t like rookies.

He doesn’t like rookies but he does like his foreign players such as Belinelli.  The Spurs are great at bringing over foreign players no one has ever heard of and making them relevant.  He also loves spreading minutes so thin that it eviscerates fantasy value.  But really it’s not even that.  It’s just that I think DeRozan reached the pinnacle

of what a two point player can do.  He’s not scoring more than 28 ppg as a Spur so the only way he can go is down.  

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9 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

He doesn’t like rookies but he does like his foreign players such as Belinelli.  The Spurs are great at bringing over foreign players no one has ever heard of and making them relevant.  He also loves spreading minutes so thin that it eviscerates fantasy value.  But really it’s not even that.  It’s just that I think DeRozan reached the pinnacle

of what a two point player can do.  He’s not scoring more than 28 ppg as a Spur so the only way he can go is down.  

In general I agree with everything you have posted, but I just want to point out one thing. The Spurs don't really have talent. They have been competing for decades and have rebuilt or pieced together stuff on the fly for the past 3 years. The talent they have somewhat near their primes produce (Kawhi, LMA, Danny Green for that minute he was in his prime). The reason the Spurs don't have many fantasy relevant players is because they don't have that many talented players in their primes. Pop maxes out what he has, which really isn't much. Pau Gasol...ancient. Manu...ancient. Patty Mills....Patty Mills. Rudy Gay...achilles and a TBD. Forbes...some dude maxing out under Pop. Murray balled when he got handed the keys to the car for appropriate team builds. Demar will be fine. But at the end of the day Demar has always been a team build specific guy that goes after the early rounds. His game isn't super fantasy friendly, but he will still do what he always does which is score and get some assists and boards by default and won't move the needle in steals and 3's. If you want/need that after the early rounds he will still be a good option. 

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I think he'll be more or less the same in terms of overall value. Usage will be similar but minutes less. Dwayne Casey was a much better defensive coach than offensive. The spurs system could raise his efficiency. Playing off a less developed PG could net him more assists which would balance out less points. I can't see him under 20 ppg. LMA isn't getting any younger either. Dunno if Murray will reduce his rebounds but ibaka/valanciunas probably pulled down more boards than Aldridge and gasol. 

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i could see 2 scenarios play out.

 

1. He rage balls under Pop and Co. while they teach him how to shoot threes and play defense like they did with Kawhi turning him into a top 5 player both in fantasy and reality.

 

2. He delves even deeper into his already depressed state into an expense of infinite raw subconscious where he cannot escape, ultimately leading to his early retirement. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

i could see 2 scenarios play out.

 

1. He rage balls under Pop and Co. while they teach him how to shoot threes and play defense like they did with Kawhi turning him into a top 5 player both in fantasy and reality.

 

2. He delves even deeper into his already depressed state into an expense of infinite raw subconscious where he cannot escape, ultimately leading to his early retirement. 

 

 

 

Oh yeah, I forgot he had depression. If he plays angry ball he could be top 20, but if he plays sad ball hes gonna end up outside the top 50. Either way I got him dropping 50+ on the Raps

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1 hour ago, bplus said:

 

Oh yeah, I forgot he had depression. If he plays angry ball he could be top 20, but if he plays sad ball hes gonna end up outside the top 50. Either way I got him dropping 50+ on the Raps

 

He could play like how Lamar Odom played once traded from Lakers to Dallas.

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5 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

He could play like how Lamar Odom played once traded from Lakers to Dallas.

 

was that before or after Odom started smoking crack?

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8 minutes ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

 

was that before or after Odom started smoking crack?

 

Probably what led him to.

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2 hours ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

Probably what led him to.

Nah dawg, dating the chubby Kardashian is what started that

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2 minutes ago, bplus said:

Nah dawg, dating the chubby Kardashian is what started that

 

Glad Harden survived. 

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I see his value being exactly the same as last season. If Aldridge runs into any injury problems we'll start to see him go on a terror. 3rd or 4th round player IMO but will go closer to the 3rd round and I have no fears with picking him.

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On 7/18/2018 at 5:15 PM, thezing1 said:

In general I agree with everything you have posted, but I just want to point out one thing. The Spurs don't really have talent. They have been competing for decades and have rebuilt or pieced together stuff on the fly for the past 3 years. The talent they have somewhat near their primes produce (Kawhi, LMA, Danny Green for that minute he was in his prime). The reason the Spurs don't have many fantasy relevant players is because they don't have that many talented players in their primes. Pop maxes out what he has, which really isn't much. Pau Gasol...ancient. Manu...ancient. Patty Mills....Patty Mills. Rudy Gay...achilles and a TBD. Forbes...some dude maxing out under Pop. Murray balled when he got handed the keys to the car for appropriate team builds. Demar will be fine. But at the end of the day Demar has always been a team build specific guy that goes after the early rounds. His game isn't super fantasy friendly, but he will still do what he always does which is score and get some assists and boards by default and won't move the needle in steals and 3's. If you want/need that after the early rounds he will still be a good option. 

 

And he's also one of the top free throw anchors in the game (top 3?)...can help balance out rosters with Gobert or DJ.  

 

I thought about it and I wouldn't draft him, besides the lack of stls, 3's, etc...he was super comfortable in Toronto, loved playing there, loved the city, etc.  with this huge unexpected change I'm not sure how his psyche will respond.  The mental aspect in sports is the most fragile component, once it's damaged its a long road back (see Ankiel, Rich...Knoblauch, Chuck).  I'll let someone else take the gamble.   

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Pop adapts to the available personnel  and Spurs changing style reflects that.  From post heavy offense  during Duncan prime  to perimeter heavy offense in post prime Duncan era.  

 

With  full training camp ahead and Chip Engelland available to help with 3 point shot, DeRozan will be fine. 

 

I expect 22  ppg, 4 reb, 3.5 ast,  1 st and 1.5 3P  with  good FG% and borderline elite FT%.   Not your typical SG production but nothing to complain about as he does not hurt you anywhere.  

Considering his durability I have no problem drafting DeRozan  before Butler or Wall

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15 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

LeBron finally leaves the East and heads to the Western Conference.

 

DeRozan promptly gets traded to the Spurs.

 

He must be like fml

 

Right?  Like Toronto should've just been like we standing pat here.  Lebron is gone, we got a chance!

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21 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Pop adapts to the available personnel  and Spurs changing style reflects that.  From post heavy offense  during Duncan prime  to perimeter heavy offense in post prime Duncan era.  

 

With  full training camp ahead and Chip Engelland available to help with 3 point shot, DeRozan will be fine. 

 

I expect 22  ppg, 4 reb, 3.5 ast,  1 st and 1.5 3P  with  good FG% and borderline elite FT%.   Not your typical SG production but nothing to complain about as he does not hurt you anywhere.  

Considering his durability I have no problem drafting DeRozan  before Butler or Wall

 

Wow I dunno man that's pretty high.  I don't think he'll get 1.5 threes but we'll see how it goes.  I like Butler with more steals, and Wall with more assists, steals, blocks, reb.  

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21 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

Pop adapts to the available personnel  and Spurs changing style reflects that.  From post heavy offense  during Duncan prime  to perimeter heavy offense in post prime Duncan era.  

 

With  full training camp ahead and Chip Engelland available to help with 3 point shot, DeRozan will be fine. 

 

I expect 22  ppg, 4 reb, 3.5 ast,  1 st and 1.5 3P  with  good FG% and borderline elite FT%.   Not your typical SG production but nothing to complain about as he does not hurt you anywhere.  

Considering his durability I have no problem drafting DeRozan  before Butler or Wall

 

This would put Derozan in the 2nd round when I think you can get easily get him in the 3rd or even 4th depending on draft position. 

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15 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

 

This would put Derozan in the 2nd round when I think you can get easily get him in the 3rd or even 4th depending on draft position. 

Exactly what I am thinking. Draft DeRozan in 3rd or 4th and get 2nd round value

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His career averages are 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 0.5 3's. Costco Kobe won't be a 2nd rounder unless he improves in those areas. And he's almost 30. 

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The chance he improves to 1.5 threes at age 29 is very slim. But he may have better FG% and slightly higher assists (SAS has weaker PG) in Pop's system. Plus he is less susceptible to injury than Wall and Butler. If you miss out scorers in the first few rounds, he is a good complement.

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