Stefan

Myles Turner 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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2 hours ago, miasma16 said:

This is just a fundamental misunderstanding of how big men work.

 

First off, Turner is big? He's kind of tall, sure, but look at him, his body has a long way to go in terms of strength, assuming he ever gets there.

 

As was noted, there are plenty of bigs that don't rebound well. Most of them either block shots or rebound. Few have the reflexes to contest a shot, come back down, get in position, block someone out, and get the rebound. You're usually good at one or the other. Turner, like many centers with his type of natural gifts, goes for blocks.

 

Finally, go take a refresher on the best of the best of rebounders of all-time. They're basically all 6'6".

Rebounding is:

1. Positioning

2. Effort

3. Athleticsm

4. Height

 

Literally 1 of the top 5 rebounders all time is shorter than 6'7 and its Dennis Rodman, the others are Wilt, Bill Russell, Moses Malone, and Kareem all 6'10 plus. Actually only 2 people in the top 20 are under 6'7 and one in Rodman had crazy effort and Chuck was extremely athletic, the rest are all centers or PF who were 6'10- 7' (I think 2 are 6'8 & 6'9) so that's just a 100% false statement saying they're all 6'6.

 

Even today the top 5 rebounders: Drummond, Deandre, Dwight, Towns, Anthony Davis are all 7 foot athletic bigs. In the top 15 rebounders last year the only one who isn't 6'10+ is Russ who is 1) great at positioning and 2) possibly gives the most effort in the game night in and night out. Porzingis isn't a great rebounder because he has trouble getting low and boxing out bigger guys so he's often out of position. There's no reason someone as athletic as Turner should be out of position but I agree that he's still growing into his body and getting stronger. In researching I'm seeing him having trouble getting into position because he is getting pushed out when he's boxing out and then isn't in position for the rebound.

 

Lastly, I refreshed my rebounding knowledge and stand by the fact that he either lacks effort or was out of shape but I'll add in that he needs to grow into his body and be stronger in order to box out bigger guys.

Edited by greatestmetfan
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Russell was nowhere near 6'10", lol, and your opinion is that guys like Wilt were, what are you saying he was, a Top 2 rebounder? If Bill Russell needs a board against him, he'd get it every time it isn't the rare jump ball off the rim. I'd say the same for Barkley, and for Wallace. That's an opinion I hold, and an opinion shared by many people that have been watching basketball for 60 years. You're entitled to disagree with it, it's subjective. But you're also strawmanning. I never said every good rebounder is 6'6", nor did I say that the guys I mentioned were the best of all-time. Simply that you can easily make an argument for the first 3 in that category. I literally already said I'd have Moses 2nd.

 

It still doesn't add to your larger point about Turner being big enough (what? wrong/irrelevant) to get more rebounds (which I think you sort of conceded to my explaining how guys get boards in the NBA). I simply gave examples of why you were overvaluing height and was asked to expand on my point, which I stand by, but we're veering off-topic.

 

Further, the athleticism you're talking about with Turner is irrelevant. His strength for a center is average at best, he doesn't have that second bounce, and he's not very agile. Being fast and dunking relatively entertainingly for a center doesn't make you a good rebounder. 

 

And please don't tell me you actually think Westbrook is one of elite rebounders in the NBA. You must think Kevin Love was the best in the league in Minnesota, too. Stats are misleading. 

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

Russell was nowhere near 6'10", lol, and your opinion is that guys like Wilt were, what are you saying he was, a Top 2 rebounder? If Bill Russell needs a board against him, he'd get it every time it isn't the rare jump ball off the rim. I'd say the same for Barkley, and for Wallace. That's an opinion I hold, and an opinion shared by many people that have been watching basketball for 60 years. You're entitled to disagree with it, it's subjective. But you're also strawmanning. I never said every good rebounder is 6'6", nor did I say that the guys I mentioned were the best of all-time. Simply that you can easily make an argument for the first 3 in that category. I literally already said I'd have Moses 2nd.

 

It still doesn't add to your larger point about Turner being big enough (what? wrong/irrelevant) to get more rebounds (which I think you sort of conceded to my explaining how guys get boards in the NBA). I simply gave examples of why you were overvaluing height and was asked to expand on my point, which I stand by, but we're veering off-topic.

 

Further, the athleticism you're talking about with Turner is irrelevant. His strength for a center is average at best, he doesn't have that second bounce, and he's not very agile. Being fast and dunking relatively entertainingly for a center doesn't make you a good rebounder. 

 

And please don't tell me you actually think Westbrook is one of elite rebounders in the NBA. You must think Kevin Love was the best in the league in Minnesota, too. Stats are misleading. 

 

Bill Russell is 6'10 lol or to get real specific 6-foot 9 5/8-inch you can literally just google it.

 

My only point is that being very tall and athletic gives you the tools you need to be a good rebounder. From there it's just positioning, strength, and effort which I was just pointing out I think Myles lacks in those categories and strength is literally just weight room so it kind of goes in to being out of shape.

 

Westbrook isn't an elite rebounder but he does something that Charles Barkley preached "Just grab the ball" Westbrook just hustles to the ball, he's elite for a guard but I don't think he's stealing rebounds from Deandre, Drummond, Capela, AD (probably Turner though) because he's not moving people out of the way for the ball. He gets to the ball quick, it also helps that teams shoot quicker into the shotclock and there are more long rebounds for him to run and get.

 

Love, is great at positioning and boxing out so I do think he's a great rebounder, curious why you think he's not?

 

It seems your main point is that tall and athletic does not = good rebounder. I would argue that height and athleticism are a huge factor in rebounding (not the only factor) but you can just look at the rebounding leaders over the past few seasons to see that. You can cherry pick guys from 20 years ago or 60 years ago to try and prove a point or just look at the leaders the last 5 years and see that they're all 7 foot athletes.

 

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Why are we comparing heights of best rebounders throughout history? The height of NBA players has dramatically increased over time. i.e. When Bill Russell was playing he was one of the tallest in the league. Historical references to physical attributes need to be put in context.

 

Good basketball rebounders usually have great height/wingspan (no they are not all basically 6'6), the strength to box out, a sense of positioning, or leaping ability including a sense of timing. When it comes to Myles Turner he has the height/wingspan to be a elite rebounder and if all else was equal he would be, currently lacks the other fundamentals although these can be developed and naturally should with age.

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38 minutes ago, freddo said:

Why are we comparing heights of best rebounders throughout history? The height of NBA players has dramatically increased over time. i.e. When Bill Russell was playing he was one of the tallest in the league. Historical references to physical attributes need to be put in context.

 

Good basketball rebounders usually have great height/wingspan (no they are not all basically 6'6), the strength to box out, a sense of positioning, or leaping ability including a sense of timing. When it comes to Myles Turner he has the height/wingspan to be a elite rebounder and if all else was equal he would be, currently lacks the other fundamentals although these can be developed and naturally should with age.

This is another common misconception. The average height of an NBA player has raised an inch in the past 55 years. As for your argument, try reading before posting. You're either arguing points I never made, or arguing points I've already disproven. Everyone including the person I began arguing with has already agreed that height is behind multiple other things with regards to pulling down boards. 

Edited by miasma16

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The year he graduated college, Bill Russell was the seventh-ranked high jumper in the world. Myles Turner should try that.

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2 hours ago, miasma16 said:

This is another common misconception. The average height of an NBA player has raised an inch in the past 55 years. As for your argument, try reading before posting. You're either arguing points I never made, or arguing points I've already disproven. Everyone including the person I began arguing with has already agreed that height is behind multiple other things with regards to pulling down boards. 

Okay, interesting I'll admit I didn't know that.....but this isn't about the 'average player' as it is completely irrelevant to talk about players who are brought in for attributes unrelated to height. This is about the guys who are designated to pull down boards. Fact is 19 of the tallest 25 players in NBA history played in the last 20 years (only 1 of these was in the 60's or 70's) and last year 19 of the top 25 rebounders were 6'10 and above so clearly height matters... alot. 

 

This figure should pretty clearly show that the upper echelon of height has increased with time.

NBA player heights over time

 

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38 minutes ago, JaydensGuys said:

Basketball people are tall and we are short

 

so is Myles Turner good or nah?

Maybe. Probably will never be much of a rebounder though, along with 7'0" Brook Lopez and 7'3" Porzingis. And on the other side, there's DeAndre, Kanter, Jokic, Love, and Tyson Chandler, who all got 9+ boards per game and couldn't clear a block per. None of their threads were 60 pages of whining, though.

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7 hours ago, JaydensGuys said:

Basketball people are tall and we are short

 

so is Myles Turner good or nah?

 He's basically just a block specialist but can't create his own shot and doesn't rebound. In 9 cat H2H redraft he'll probably go in the 5th or 6th round just because he fills one of the toughest categories.

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34 minutes ago, Stefan said:

Oh Dear God I'm so HYPED ! Will take early 3rd round, if available...

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24276115/indiana-pacers-center-myles-turner-using-yoga-reshape-body-nba-career

 

Right now I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on a Turner bounce back 18-19 season.  Not too crazy to think that a 21 year-old (still really a kid) got complacent after a break-out 2nd season and did not train, condition, or eat properly.  Really looks to be dedicated this offseason and other players are already seeing really positive results.

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1 minute ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Right now I'm drinking the Kool-Aid on a Turner bounce back 18-19 season.  Not too crazy to think that a 21 year-old (still really a kid) got complacent after a break-out 2nd season and did not train, condition, or eat properly.  Really looks to be dedicated this offseason and other players are already seeing really positive results.

 

Exactly... I mean... he ate 8 slices of pizza night before a game... No wonder :rolleyes:

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It's nice that Myles has worked on his summer body and he'll come into camp in shape and all that but I'm not really all that excited about it because I don't know how much it really helps him. He's a face-up, jump shooter, he doesn't go bang down low in the post. Julius Randle was the winner of the NBAs biggest loser: offseason edition last year and how did that help him? It looked like he ran the court better and had more energy at times, but the stats don't show anything that would say his six pack helped his performance any better on the court than his dad bod did. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't really care he's in "the best shape of his life," we've all heard it a million times and most of the time it doesn't mean much.

Edited by RedRaider27
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32 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

It's nice that Myles has worked on his summer body and he'll come into camp in shape and all that but I'm not really all that excited about it because I don't know how much it really helps him. He's a face-up, jump shooter, he doesn't go bang down low in the post. Julius Randle was the winner of the NBAs biggest loser: offseason edition last year and how did that help him? It looked like he ran the court better and had more energy at times, but the stats don't show anything that would say his six pack helped his performance any better on the court than his dad bod did. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't really care he's in "the best shape of his life," we've all heard it a million times and most of the time it doesn't mean much.

It doesn’t.  Basketball is a non-contact skill sport.  Endurance is important but being “jacked” has almost nothing to do with it.  Particularly for a stretch perimeter player such as Turner.  Maybe it improves his stats by 10% but not by much more.  

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11 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

It doesn’t.  Basketball is a non-contact skill sport.  Endurance is important but being “jacked” has almost nothing to do with it.  Particularly for a stretch perimeter player such as Turner.  Maybe it improves his stats by 10% but not by much more.  

So how do you explain Turner’s top 30 16-17 season? He can’t or won’t ever get back to that level again? 

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong & I’m right but this guy crushed his 16-17 ADP & had a great 2nd season as a 20 year-old. I don’t think comparing him to JRandle or other players who haven’t come close to producing like Turner for fantasy is a fair comparison.

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6 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

So how do you explain Turner’s top 30 16-17 season? He can’t or won’t ever get back to that level again? 

 

I’m not saying you’re wrong & I’m right but this guy crushed his 16-17 ADP & had a great 2nd season as a 20 year-old. I don’t think comparing him to JRandle or other players who haven’t come close to producing like Turner for fantasy is a fair comparison.

I don’t need to explain it.  It’s variance.  Every player is subject to it.  Sometimes players do better and sometimes they do worse.  I know some people don’t like this because they want explainations for everything but every performance sport or game has natural variance to it.  Anyway I’m not saying top 30 was positive variance maybe that’s his baseline and last year was negative variance for whatever reason. 

Edited by StifleTower2

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My biggest issue with Myles was that he doesn't have that dog in him that I see in other elite bigs. He'll float around for 6 minutes and not even catch the ball and look at the basket, or the fact he's always around the rim yet can't seem to come up with rebounds. Similar physical tools like KAT but that guy has a nose for the ball you simply can't teach. 

 

It's not about being a stretch big and playing away from the basket. Guys like Kevin Love, Towns, Jokic all drift around the perimeter but once that shot goes up they'll do anything to get it. No excuse for guards like Kyle Lowry to be anywhere close to guys like Myles Turner and KP in terms of rebounds per game. You simply don't want it enough, and unfortunately no amount of muscle can solve this. Combined with his poor rebounding and the fact his value basically hinges on one category which is blocks I believe he is not very reliable despite his high floor/low ceiling.

 

In real life he is not that good, and I believe the addition of KOQ with Sabonis means he will have a short leash next year

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Difference between two seasons ago and this last one was his role in the offense. Him and Teague were pretty much option 2a/2b behind Paul George back then.

 

Last season they grabbed more capable / efficient offensive role players (Thadd, Bog, Collison VS Teague, Miles, Stuckey, Ellis) and he now had a more capable back up (Sab vs Seraphim).

 

His rebounding will foreseeably continue to be in the 7 range because of how he is used for high screen pops as that is where he has excelled.

 

I dont think you can compare his offensive role to KAT or Jok etc since the other featured offensive players on those teams would rather shoot or post up (Wigg, Jimmy, Taj / Gary, Murray, Millsap, Chandler - last year) than slash and create (Vic, DC + Tyreke now) so those bigs get way more opportunities to crash the offensive glass.

 

That said, he was overpriced last season and it would be silly to expect his numbers to drastically trend either way. I would still target him but in the pick ~50 range where I believe he can return appropriate value over 82.

 

His value will rest in the efficiency categories, 2 blocks and the upside is there for threes (basically Ibaka with a slightly higher ceiling). To expect anything else will only lead to frustration.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Mikhov said:

I dont think you can compare his offensive role to KAT or Jok etc since the other featured offensive players on those teams would rather shoot or post up (Wigg, Jimmy, Taj / Gary, Murray, Millsap, Chandler - last year) than slash and create (Vic, DC + Tyreke now) so those bigs get way more opportunities to crash the offensive glass.

 

 

1

 

I believe you are unintentionally selling the NBA's elite rebounders short. I disagree completely as Turner simply does not want it as much as other bigs. The eye test is everything, no matter where he is, when a shot goes up KAT is flying to the glass 9/10 times and will fight when being boxed out. Myles is the complete opposite, often times Turner will begin to run back on D if a shot goes up, or will allow himself to be boxed out without much of a fight. These are intangibles that can't be taught, you either have it or you don't. if Pau Gasol can put up 8 Rpg at 38 years old on 23 mins then the only explanation is Myles does not have the motor to be a good rebounder

 

All the elite rebounders in this league (regardless of who they play with) crash the glass and will fight until the ball is secured. Drum, Whiteside, DJ, Jokic, Towns do not accept boxouts period and that is why they grab so many boards. Swap Towns or DJ on IND and they would give you the same amount of rebounds if not more, considering the starting PF Thad Young is undersized.

 

 

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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5 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

 

I believe you are unintentionally selling the NBA's elite rebounders short. I disagree completely as Turner simply does not want it as much as other bigs. The eye test is everything, no matter where he is, when a shot goes up KAT is flying to the glass 9/10 times and will fight when being boxed out. Myles is the complete opposite, often times Turner will begin to run back on D if a shot goes up, or will allow himself to be boxed out without much of a fight. These are intangibles that can't be taught, you either have it or you don't. if Pau Gasol can put up 8 Rpg at 38 years old on 23 mins then the only explanation is Myles does not have the motor to be a good rebounder

 

All the elite rebounders in this league (regardless of who they play with) crash the glass and will fight until the ball is secured. Drum, Whiteside, DJ, Jokic, Towns do not accept boxouts period and that is why they grab so many boards. Swap Towns or DJ on IND and they would give you the same amount of rebounds if not more, considering the starting PF Thad Young is undersized.

 

 

 

Him running back once a shot goes up could very well be the game plan for the Pacer’s defensive scheme though - especially where he ends up positioned on their offensive sets (if he’s not in the corner pulling out the opposing rim protector, he’s around the top of the key - ready to run back once a shot goes up, which has Indiana’s best rim protector back on D asap in an effort to diminish transition opportunities)

 

Players like Whiteside, Love, Pau and Jok are not consistently beating anybody back in transition so they’re better off asserting themselves crashing the glass IMO

 

Drumm and DAJ on the other hand are athletic enough to get back but obviously have the green light to get those extra possessions which justifies them being more than just lob targets on O.

 

TLDR: You’re right IMO that an eye test dictates that Myles isn’t even an above average rebounder as he gets pushed around consistently - but my point is that the way he’s utilized will not help him get more boards, so there isn’t much point for people to start feeling bad when the 7 footer that they drafted in the early rounds, will have 4 rebound games regardless of him changing his diet and doing yoga. (It’s not easy to properly challenge shots and get the rebounds on D as well.)

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Caution guys, this player has a chronic bronchitis. Everyone on my league who has this player always makes a mistake of drafting him and regretting it in the end. Victor Oladipo is also equipped with a HUGE, HUGE green light in offense which vastly limited Turner's offensive upside and made him a mere shot blocker. Pacers got too excited and orgasmic in getting a steal on the oladipo trade that they totally forgot to involve in offense their other prospects.

 

The chronic bronchitis symptoms is showing in games you can see Turner always gasping for air with dry lips and open mouth dropped jaw like an exhausted black stallion. Fantasy basketball is for entertainment more than the pride of competition, so do yourselves a favor and avoid early drafting of Turner as it looks like he inhales some auschwitz poison gas in the court everytime he plays, chronic bronchitis is such an unfortunate condition I hope he gets healed soon he should really drink turmeric tea with pepper everyday.  5th round or below is safest position for standard leagues.

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16 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

It's nice that Myles has worked on his summer body and he'll come into camp in shape and all that but I'm not really all that excited about it because I don't know how much it really helps him. He's a face-up, jump shooter, he doesn't go bang down low in the post. Julius Randle was the winner of the NBAs biggest loser: offseason edition last year and how did that help him? It looked like he ran the court better and had more energy at times, but the stats don't show anything that would say his six pack helped his performance any better on the court than his dad bod did. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't really care he's in "the best shape of his life," we've all heard it a million times and most of the time it doesn't mean much.

 

Myles Turner already had a breakout year ... and we all saw what he is capable of...

 

2016-2017 NBA season (9 cat)

2nd round value 24. (per game)

2nd round value 15. (total)

 

sooo H Y PE :D  

Edited by Stefan

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Got burned good by this dude last year after reaching for him in the second round (picked him somewhere in the 20s right after my first choice Kristaps). 

 

With that being said like Prime Ibaka, he is/will be surely elite this coming season in the scarcest cat without tanking your FT% and that alone should make fantasy managers thinking. 

 

Of course you can load up on blocks later on if you so wish - but taking so many during the middle and late rounds of your drafts will leave you short in the other cats. 

 

In past years BroLo was a good bet to be that safe > 1.5 BPG guy without the substantial FT% hit but he will never go back to his previous role with the Bucks as he did with the Nets. 

 

With the way this thread is going, I think people are just split on this guy probably because he disappointed last year but with that being said he still has room to grow as a player. Will be targeting him this year in the 30s if need be. 

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