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Myles Turner 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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3 hours ago, SicarioSanity said:

Got burned good by this dude last year after reaching for him in the second round (picked him somewhere in the 20s right after my first choice Kristaps). 

 

With that being said like Prime Ibaka, he is/will be surely elite this coming season in the scarcest cat without tanking your FT% and that alone should make fantasy managers thinking. 

 

Of course you can load up on blocks later on if you so wish - but taking so many during the middle and late rounds of your drafts will leave you short in the other cats. 

 

In past years BroLo was a good bet to be that safe > 1.5 BPG guy without the substantial FT% hit but he will never go back to his previous role with the Bucks as he did with the Nets. 

 

With the way this thread is going, I think people are just split on this guy probably because he disappointed last year but with that being said he still has room to grow as a player. Will be targeting him this year in the 30s if need be. 

You speak the truth... totally agree ! 

Last season... obviously his lack of fitness was issue... he got that sorted out now... and with all that fintess/junk food s h i t going on... he was 69 (total value), 55 (per game)... not to bad if u ask me... 

He can easily get back to 2016/17 season level... 14p-7r-2b-50fg%-80ft%

Edited by Stefan

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Keep in mind he was probably maintaining the same poor diet back in his breakout season as Turner himself mentioned these were bad habits from high school. So It makes no sense to blame last season on a lack of fitness. The coaching staff really lost trust in him as most nights he could not keep himself on the floor with foul trouble. If he started off with 2 fouls you could basically book him for a dud.

 

I also believe the addition of O'Quinn cannot be overlooked.

 

 I think taking him in the 30s adds a large unnecessary risk. In the 40-50 range and it would be extremely hard for him to disappoint you

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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On 8/9/2018 at 8:46 AM, FantasyBallFan said:

Keep in mind he was probably maintaining the same poor diet back in his breakout season as Turner himself mentioned these were bad habits from high school. So It makes no sense to blame last season on a lack of fitness. The coaching staff really lost trust in him as most nights he could not keep himself on the floor with foul trouble. If he started off with 2 fouls you could basically book him for a dud.

 

I also believe the addition of O'Quinn cannot be overlooked.

 

 I think taking him in the 30s adds a large unnecessary risk. In the 40-50 range and it would be extremely hard for him to disappoint you

What is the risk? And I ask that seriously. The risk can't be something like "he burned me last year" because that is bias and not a risk. If you are afraid of concussions that is a risk and something I would love to hear from people. I am struggling to identify his risks. And what are the odds you put on him being available in the 30-40 range, 40-50 range, and after 50? 

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On 8/8/2018 at 10:41 AM, SicarioSanity said:

Got burned good by this dude last year after reaching for him in the second round (picked him somewhere in the 20s right after my first choice Kristaps). 

 

With that being said like Prime Ibaka, he is/will be surely elite this coming season in the scarcest cat without tanking your FT% and that alone should make fantasy managers thinking. 

 

Of course you can load up on blocks later on if you so wish - but taking so many during the middle and late rounds of your drafts will leave you short in the other cats. 

 

In past years BroLo was a good bet to be that safe > 1.5 BPG guy without the substantial FT% hit but he will never go back to his previous role with the Bucks as he did with the Nets. 

 

With the way this thread is going, I think people are just split on this guy probably because he disappointed last year but with that being said he still has room to grow as a player. Will be targeting him this year in the 30s if need be. 

I love reading when people get burned by a pick and still process things without being biased. Great to see and glad you are willing to run it back with Turner this year. 

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44 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

What is the risk? And I ask that seriously. The risk can't be something like "he burned me last year" because that is bias and not a risk. If you are afraid of concussions that is a risk and something I would love to hear from people. I am struggling to identify his risks. And what are the odds you put on him being available in the 30-40 range, 40-50 range, and after 50? 

Didn't draft him last year, but did buy low for him around week 15 in the season. Wasn't a top 30 guy last year but I didn't pay anywhere near that for him like most people so I am completely unbiased.

 

The risk I'm speaking on is downside risk. He is not a good rebounder and the numbers show he hasn't really improved since entering the league. He is simply a pick and pop big that is terrible in the post. I know it's hard to imagine a players peak season could be his 2nd year but that may be the best we'll ever see from this guy. If you then factor in the lack of confidence the coaching staff has in him, taking him in the 30 range could be another disappointment waiting to happen. Not to mention the addition of O'Quinn who has proven to be a valuable contributor when he gets minutes there's Turner, Sabonis, Young & O'quinn vying for minutes. If Turner struggles early or gets foul trouble they won't hesitate to go away from him like they did last year.

 

Although I do not expect it, we could see a similar situation like Whiteside in MIA, where Turner becomes a player that only finishes games based on situations/matchups. I saw it happen plenty of times down the stretch last year where he was benched towards the end of games. 

 

I honestly can't estimate where he'll go as I feel like he burned a lot of people last year while others are expecting a bounce back. He may not make it past 40 but i'll gladly let someone else take on that risk

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-10 at 12.11.54 PM.png

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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6 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Didn't draft him last year, but did buy low for him around week 15 in the season. Wasn't a top 30 guy last year but I didn't pay anywhere near that for him like most people so I am completely unbiased.

 

The risk I'm speaking on is downside risk. He is not a good rebounder and the numbers show he hasn't really improved since entering the league. He is simply a pick and pop big that is terrible in the post. I know it's hard to imagine a players peak season could be his 2nd year but that may be the best we'll ever see from this guy. If you then factor in the lack of confidence the coaching staff has in him, taking him in the 30 range could be another disappointment waiting to happen. Not to mention the addition of O'Quinn who has proven to be a valuable contributor when he gets minutes there's Turner, Sabonis, Young & O'quinn vying for minutes. If Turner struggles early or gets foul trouble they won't hesitate to go away from him like they did last year.

 

Although I do not expect it, we could see a similar situation like Whiteside in MIA, where Turner becomes a player that only finishes games based on situations/matchups. I saw it happen plenty of times down the stretch last year where he was benched towards the end of games. 

 

I honestly can't estimate where he'll go as I feel like he burned a lot of people last year while others are expecting a bounce back. He may not make it past 40 but i'll gladly let someone else take on that risk

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-10 at 12.11.54 PM.png

Thanks for the response. Appreciate it. 

 

His rebounds aren't a risk as long as you realize who he is. They have consistently been below average for a big. That isn't a surprise, right? There is no downside risk in that category as long as you accurately project that category. Honestly, I would probably say that in terms of rebounds, there is only upside since he has demonstrated a base of 6.5-7 boards per game in 30 minutes. As long as you project that and he beats it to the upside then you are fine. I can't see him getting 5 boards, which would be downside risk in rebounds. Does that make sense?

 

In terms of O'Quinn....I feel like we have been there and done that for the last 3-4 years. He is a role player. Like the NBA version of Nick Foles as the backup QB. Great as a backup, and can win you a few, but he isn't a starter. If Myles and Thad play 30 that leaves 18 for the role players, which is sufficient. I think Thad is the more concerning option as a decline since he most likely isn't in the teams long term plan. But, I understand the concern of pairing Turner/OQuinn on the court and saying OQuinn will get some of the boards and further hurt Myles rebounding. I just don't think the impact is that great. 

 

In terms of pick and pop and post play...I find this part a little interesting. All the NBA wants is bigs that spread it and don't need post touches to do work. I think that makes Myles so different from Whiteside. They are entirely different players. But I get where you can try to link them. Myles has a game that allows him to finish games as long as he is fit.

 

I think fitness is strongly correlated to foul trouble. I don't think Myles is on the level of Chriss is terms of stupid fouls. I think more wind will help him in all aspects of the game. I think when we see him roll more instead of just pop then his offensive game will breakout. But I don't see much downside to a low teens-6.5-7 boards-2+ stocks line on good %s. And I see only upside from that base. 

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37 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Thanks for the response. Appreciate it. 

 

His rebounds aren't a risk as long as you realize who he is. They have consistently been below average for a big. That isn't a surprise, right? There is no downside risk in that category as long as you accurately project that category. Honestly, I would probably say that in terms of rebounds, there is only upside since he has demonstrated a base of 6.5-7 boards per game in 30 minutes. As long as you project that and he beats it to the upside then you are fine. I can't see him getting 5 boards, which would be downside risk in rebounds. Does that make sense?

 

In terms of O'Quinn....I feel like we have been there and done that for the last 3-4 years. He is a role player. Like the NBA version of Nick Foles as the backup QB. Great as a backup, and can win you a few, but he isn't a starter. If Myles and Thad play 30 that leaves 18 for the role players, which is sufficient. I think Thad is the more concerning option as a decline since he most likely isn't in the teams long term plan. But, I understand the concern of pairing Turner/OQuinn on the court and saying OQuinn will get some of the boards and further hurt Myles rebounding. I just don't think the impact is that great. 

 

In terms of pick and pop and post play...I find this part a little interesting. All the NBA wants is bigs that spread it and don't need post touches to do work. I think that makes Myles so different from Whiteside. They are entirely different players. But I get where you can try to link them. Myles has a game that allows him to finish games as long as he is fit.

 

I think fitness is strongly correlated to foul trouble. I don't think Myles is on the level of Chriss is terms of stupid fouls. I think more wind will help him in all aspects of the game. I think when we see him roll more instead of just pop then his offensive game will breakout. But I don't see much downside to a low teens-6.5-7 boards-2+ stocks line on good %s. And I see only upside from that base. 

 

Yes, what you're saying about rebounds does make sense, I just don't think that majority of the people high on Turner think that way. There was evidence he was a below average rebound last year yet BBM, and most people expected a significant jump. I hate being so harsh on the guy but going into last season there were evident signs that this guy was a poor offensive player yet he was projected for a significant increase in points. Owning him during his breakout season and watching him play showed me he lacked a lot of tools offensively.

 

O'Quinn is 100% a backup but he has proven to be an above average one that rebounds and protects the paint well. Myles Turner isn't a threat to get demoted to the bench but I can see him losing minutes down the stretch. Sabonis, who they love played 24.5 minutes last year and I don't see him falling below 20. 

 

I do believe Turner is more suited for today's NBA than Whiteside but I would add that today's NBA wants skilled big men, not simply shooters. Guys who can pass from the elbow, attack of the dribble and space the floor. As much as Turner can space the floor, he is a "one trick pony" and there was a lot of games where they went to Sabonis late instead of Turner. Although Turner is the better floor space, Sabonis shows better instincts in pick & roll and can make decisions when the ball is in his hands. With that said, there were many games the Pacers turned to Sabonis to finish games instead of Turner.

 

To your point about foul trouble. I do believe fitness is a factor but the eye test showed me that Myles Turner also makes stupid fouls. Too many times last year I'd see him pick up two fouls in the first 5 minutes of the game and he wasn't even contesting a shot. If he picked up one you could almost guarantee he would get a next one. Reaching in, loose ball fouls on opposing bigs, just boneheaded mistakes that are comparable to Chriss' fouls. By no means am saying that Myles is as bad but he simply picks up similar fouls.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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Is there upside?  Of course.  Is his floor pretty safe?  Yes - it's probably around top 50-60 solely because of blocks and efficiency.  Would I draft him in the 3rd round?  Probably not unless it's dynasty.  I don't see an offensive breakout this year for all the reasons listed he has to overcome - foul trouble, quality depth, low usage, sitting in the 4th quarter to close games, too many duds.  For redraft I'm probably targeting Marc Gasol over Turner, who beats him in 6 categories and likely able to get him a round or two later.  

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I don't think 8 cat or 9 cat changes this question....so you are on the clock in the 4th/5th round and you are faced with Turner or Jarrett Allen. Who are you taking?

 

Apparently I am far more bullish on Turner than the rest of the people. I think his fitness level is being underestimated and his minutes/role/4Q usage overestimated. 

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15 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I don't think 8 cat or 9 cat changes this question....so you are on the clock in the 4th/5th round and you are faced with Turner or Jarrett Allen. Who are you taking?

 

Apparently I am far more bullish on Turner than the rest of the people. I think his fitness level is being underestimated and his minutes/role/4Q usage overestimated. 

Redraft Turner, Dynasty Allen.  

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37 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I don't think 8 cat or 9 cat changes this question....so you are on the clock in the 4th/5th round and you are faced with Turner or Jarrett Allen. Who are you taking?

 

Apparently I am far more bullish on Turner than the rest of the people. I think his fitness level is being underestimated and his minutes/role/4Q usage overestimated. 

Turner no question, I'm not as high on Jarret Allen as most. 

Are people really targeting him that early?

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The real burning question is....can he top the 65 pages he had on his 2017-18 outlook thread?!

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On 8/10/2018 at 11:05 AM, FantasyBallFan said:

Turner no question, I'm not as high on Jarret Allen as most. 

Are people really targeting him that early?

 

In deep leagues or even standard leagues someone keen will target Allen that early.  Probably around the 5th is my guess.  Blocks are so scarce, and he's a Turner like player who won't ruin your FT while getting elite blocks. 

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17 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

In deep leagues or even standard leagues someone keen will target Allen that early.  Probably around the 5th is my guess.  Blocks are so scarce, and he's a Turner like player who won't ruin your FT while getting elite blocks. 

 

Sounds like too much hype IMO. Can't even guarantee this guy will get 28 minutes on that BK team. Again, seems similar to the Turner hype last year, or the Gobert hype after his breakout season. Obviously, we're not talking about Allen at the turn of the 1st/2nd but 5th round for Allen on that team seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

Once you consider that rotation crap shoot in Brooklyn I think he's getting 24-26 minutes this year. In that time I don't see any way he produces above 5th round value. 

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40 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

 

Sounds like too much hype IMO. Can't even guarantee this guy will get 28 minutes on that BK team. Again, seems similar to the Turner hype last year, or the Gobert hype after his breakout season. Obviously, we're not talking about Allen at the turn of the 1st/2nd but 5th round for Allen on that team seems like a recipe for disaster.

 

Once you consider that rotation crap shoot in Brooklyn I think he's getting 24-26 minutes this year. In that time I don't see any way he produces above 5th round value. 

 

That's the thing tho - if you're taking him in the 5th you're not looking for 5th round value.  You're looking to add an elite shot blocker with elite percentages that could be your upside play that helps win your league.  The price for that is high.  His low rebounds/assists/stl/3 will always keep his value down.  He's basically Myles Turner without the 3 ball, but stronger FG%.  The great thing with Allen is he doesn't need 30 minutes/night to produce his stats.  He'll do just fine with 24-28 min/game.  Anything more is gravy.  I'll take a shot at 10 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.5 stls, 2+ blocks on 65+% FG and 80%+ FT (on negligible attempts)...I'll even say that's his floor for this season.  For bigs at that point you're probably looking at J-Val, Adams, Whiteside, Kanter, Nurk, Collins, with Allen having the highest upside in blocks out of them all, but probably the lowest rebounds out of them all.  

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Also not scared of the "crap rotation" in Brooklyn.  The big man depth chart looks like this - 

 

Allen

Ed Davis

Faried 

 

There is no way he doesn't dominate the minutes there.  Even if they go small part of the time.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

That's the thing tho - if you're taking him in the 5th you're not looking for 5th round value.  You're looking to add an elite shot blocker with elite percentages that could be your upside play that helps win your league.  The price for that is high.  His low rebounds/assists/stl/3 will always keep his value down.  He's basically Myles Turner without the 3 ball, but stronger FG%.  The great thing with Allen is he doesn't need 30 minutes/night to produce his stats.  He'll do just fine with 24-28 min/game.  Anything more is gravy.  I'll take a shot at 10 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.5 stls, 2+ blocks on 65+% FG and 80%+ FT (on negligible attempts)...I'll even say that's his floor for this season.  For bigs at that point you're probably looking at J-Val, Adams, Whiteside, Kanter, Nurk, Collins, with Allen having the highest upside in blocks out of them all, but probably the lowest rebounds out of them all.  

1.2 blocks in 20 mins certainly does not scream 2+ blocks in 24-28 minutes. Theres zero evidence that Allen's block upside is higher than Whiteside who averaged 1.7 in 25mpg. In fact, 2+ blocks as his floor makes no sense if we're talking about 24-28 mpg... His per36 block rate 2.2

 

To your point about not looking for 5th round value... Are you're looking for him to exceed that or overpaying for him because he offers good blocks offering good without harming you? 

 

I fully understand efficient guys like that come at a premium but at what point are you wasting your money/picks. Personally, im taking all of the mentioned players before Allen, except Nurk and Collins who I don't even believe are near 5th round picks.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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37 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

1.2 blocks in 20 mins certainly does not scream 2+ blocks in 24-28 minutes. Theres zero evidence that Allen's block upside is higher than Whiteside who averaged 1.7 in 25mpg. In fact, 2+ blocks as his floor makes no sense if we're talking about 24-28 mpg... His per36 block rate 2.2

 

To your point about not looking for 5th round value... Are you're looking for him to exceed that or overpaying for him because he offers good blocks offering good without harming you? 

 

I fully understand efficient guys like that come at a premium but at what point are you wasting your money/picks. Personally, im taking all of the mentioned players before Allen, except Nurk and Collins who I don't even believe are near 5th round picks.

I’m somewhere between you two. He averaged 1.2 bpg on 20 mpg.  If you assume he plays 30 mpg that translates into 1.8 bpg.  Moreover, he’s a second year player so I think it’s rational to expect some improvement.  Last year he didn’t start for most of the year and he was also a rookie.  That said I don’t think 2 bpg is his floor, I think it’s more like his ceiling.  It’s very difficult for players to get over 2 bpg and it took even Stifle 3 years to get to that level.  My expectation is 12/8 with 2 blocks and excellent efficiency.  That means he’s ahead of the median in 5 categories which translates into being top 75.  I drafted him around there in the roto mock and I think that’s fair value.  None of the centers you mentioned are good comps.  Whiteside, Nurk, and Adams are mostly punt FT guys and if I was punting I would pick them otherwise I like Allen more. Jval is a competent center for roto as a place holder, center2.  He doesn’t provide anything sexy in terms of counting stats but doesn’t hurt you anywhere.  Allen is much more valuable than him as he projects to be similar as Jval except that he projects to average 3x the median in blocks which is significantly more than Jval.  Even if Allen doesn’t improve he still blocked more shots last year than Jval.  People have a tendency to undervalue blocks as getting even 1.8 bpg is 3x the median and getting 3x the median in any cat is huge.  Then there’s the issue of some people play dynasty when I think you’re referencing redraft.  I agree that I wouldn’t go near Allen in the 5th in redraft as there’s simply players I would rather have.  But in dynasty  everything changes.  I’m still not inclined to pick Allen in the 5th round of dynasty drafts as I tend to go for win now but if I saw someone else do it I wouldn’t be surprised.  

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On 7/24/2018 at 7:20 AM, larfboy said:

this year's hype cannot exceed last year's hype...i traded him and marquese chriss for tatum fultz and bender in a dynasty league last season. 

LOL i know what you did last summer 

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55 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

1.2 blocks in 20 mins certainly does not scream 2+ blocks in 24-28 minutes. Theres zero evidence that Allen's block upside is higher than Whiteside who averaged 1.7 in 25mpg. In fact, 2+ blocks as his floor makes no sense if we're talking about 24-28 mpg... His per36 block rate 2.2

 

To your point about not looking for 5th round value... Are you're looking for him to exceed that or overpaying for him because he offers good blocks offering good without harming you? 

 

I fully understand efficient guys like that come at a premium but at what point are you wasting your money/picks. Personally, im taking all of the mentioned players before Allen, except Nurk and Collins who I don't even believe are near 5th round picks.

 

24 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m somewhere between you two. He averaged 1.2 bpg on 20 mpg.  If you assume he plays 30 mpg that translates into 1.8 bpg.  Moreover, he’s a second year player so I think it’s rational to expect some improvement.  Last year he didn’t start for most of the year and he was also a rookie.  That said I don’t think 2 bpg is his floor, I think it’s more like his ceiling.  It’s very difficult for players to get over 2 bpg and it took even Stifle 3 years to get to that level.  My expectation is 12/8 with 2 blocks and excellent efficiency.  That means he’s ahead of the median in 5 categories which translates into being top 75.  I drafted him around there in the roto mock and I think that’s fair value.  None of the centers you mentioned are good comps.  Whiteside, Nurk, and Adams are mostly punt FT guys and if I was punting I would pick them otherwise I like Allen more. Jval is a competent center for roto as a place holder, center2.  He doesn’t provide anything sexy in terms of counting stats but doesn’t hurt you anywhere.  Allen is much more valuable than him as he projects to be similar as Jval except that he projects to average 3x the median in blocks which is significantly more than Jval.  Even if Allen doesn’t improve he still blocked more shots last year than Jval.  People have a tendency to undervalue blocks as getting even 1.8 bpg is 3x the median and getting 3x the median in any cat is huge.  Then there’s the issue of some people play dynasty when I think you’re referencing redraft.  I agree that I wouldn’t go near Allen in the 5th in redraft as there’s simply players I would rather have.  But in dynasty  everything changes.  I’m still not inclined to pick Allen in the 5th round of dynasty drafts as I tend to go for win now but if I saw someone else do it I wouldn’t be surprised.  

 

For his season stats, he was a rookie and played very limited minutes early on, and it took him a while to get acclimated and settle in.  Therefore, his season stats at a whole in this case, seems skewed.  What you can look at is that from Feb 7 onwards he had 15 multi-block games in 26 games.  11 of those multi-block games came in less than 26 minutes.  3 were less than 20 minutes.  He's only going to improve and grow, so I'm making that his baseline (so about 1.9, I'm optimistic it can grow to 2 or even more with not just increased but regular playing time around the 26-30 minute mark).   Look out if he ever gets regular PT at or over 30 min/game.  I get it if you'd rather go with a more proven or steadier commodity at that point in the draft, not a big deal.  Nurk I would probably avoid altogether for efficiency and injury reasons.   Whiteside is in a 3 way battle for PT and may not finish games (still has good value in the 5th round tho), and drags down your FT.  

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I think it also depends on your team build up to that point as well.  If you already have good rebounders on your team, it's probably better to go with the higher block upside in Allen imo.  If you're set in blocks and want a more established player with more points or rebounds, then Adams or Kanter or whoever else might be better.  

 

 

 

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By no means am I undervaluing blocks but I just wanted to point out that 2 blocks per game is simply not his floor. 30mpg, specifically this year will not happen considering Atkins is reluctant to play anyone 30 mins. There are only 3 players that averaged 2bpg last year and I don't see Allen in that class of shot blockers at this stage in his career.

 

If we're talking Dynasty I certainly understand. But in a redraft, I don't see any way Allen puts up top 60 value this season primarily because of Atkins and his philosophies. 

 

Yes the depth chart behind him may be poor but this coach has made it clear he is not playing his guys over 30mpg. RHJ who played 3 positions for this team at times was only at 28mpg. The depth chart behind him was poor, and it did not matter. The thought that it's a Rebuilding team,  and they have nothing better to than giving their young talent as much run as possible doesn't apply here. 

 

Don't think Whiteside should be classified as a punt Ft big at this point... Obviously, he's a negative but I've been able to maintain top ft in my league with him on my roster for multiple years

Edited by FantasyBallFan

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umm...If you need bigman who can bIock,I think you can draft JJJ or WCJ in later round rather than draft Allen in 5th round:rolleyes:

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14 hours ago, thekickasswombat said:

LOL i know what you did last summer 

you know it. now it's time to buy myles' while his stock is down right?

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8 hours ago, kane said:

umm...If you need bigman who can bIock,I think you can draft JJJ or WCJ in later round rather than draft Allen in 5th round:rolleyes:

Umm...if you need an efficient point guard don’t draft CP3 in the second I think you can draft Collison later :rolleyes:

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