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2018 Draft Strategy

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I usually see this thread early on here but can't seem to find it. MODS, please combine threads if I'm repeating. 

 

I know we're a bit early but what are you guys seeing as far as mock drafts? Meaning, are RB's thin? WR's thin? Best to wait on QB since it appears as if QB's are pretty deep this year. I know last year, RB's options after 5th round or so were slim pickings and WR's were deep. Curious what you guys are seeing. Thanks for any input.

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1. I always wait on QB, unless I hate the RB/WR available and Kelce/Gronk/Ertz are gone. 

 

2. RB is “deeper” than years past and are cool again, so they are going 1st round. 

 

3. Lots of great WR options in rounds 2-4 due to the sheep going back to early “RB-RB” strategies 

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QB I wait on unless I an elite QB slides to 7th-8th round.  Otherwise, I will happily wait until the 12th-13th.

 

RB has about 8 guys I like, 4 elites, and 4 that are just a cut below.  After that, I like the guys in the 20's about as much as I do the guys at 12. 

 

WR a couple elites, then a lot of comparable players in the next 15 spots.

 

TE, top 2, then a crapshoot.

Edited by Sternes

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Disagree that rb is deeper. Seems very top heavy to me. Wr on the other hand. Lots of nice wrs through rounds 6/7. I’l certainly be going into my drafts trying to load up on rbs early on, but if I have a later pick and everyone snatched all the rbs then obviously I’ll adapt and take a wr who fell. 

 

League format  and size obviously play a big role in this though. In ppr it’s a little easier to ignore rbs. If you’re in a 12+ standard league Like I am, you can really f*** yourself over not grabbing an rb early

Edited by Panthers8912

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1.  need one WR1 stud, and one borderrline WR1 by the end of round four. 

 

2. wait on QB - UNLESS Watson or Saint Russel are there in the fifth. 

 

3. Trey Burton in the tenth, if preseason buzz goes batsheet, ya might have to reach a round (possibly two) higher. 

 

4.  load up like a depraved hoarder on RBs.  essential stuff.  if 16 man rosters, at least 8 gotta be RBs. 

 

5. drink yerself silly before reading FBG's "Rate My Team" schtick ... if you draft like me you will be disemboweled by those pretentious muthas. 

 

7. Greg. The. Leg.  

 

 

 

 

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It depends a bit on how many teams, 2QB/Superflex etc but assuming 12 team, .5 PPR, I see value:
- RBs in the first 2 rounds. Loads of great players, worth a grab.

- Get your WRs before round 3/4. After that, it trails off fast.

- TEs: Kelce/Gronk (and maybe Ertz) are worth thinking it over if you can grab them in the 3rd round. Else, wait until later, or even consider streaming them.

- QBs: I see Rodgers going early, and Brady of course, but the value you get in round 6/7 is just fine. Round 9/10 is fine too, in fact.

- Flyers/bench: I get a bit nervous looking at WRs after WR40. RB after RB40 you can still find some rookies and some established veterans who are not as dead as some think they are. Having said that, there are also some WR values, but you have to scrape a bit more.

Edited by Boudewijn

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This year is going to be a veryyyyy interesting year, in regards to almost every position.

 

QBs - Quarterbacks are interesting this year solely due to the tiers, and unlike years past, a completely new tier has "spawned", that being what I'll call the "Comeback QB" Tier. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, probably in that order, are your Top-Tier 1 QBs. But then all of a sudden, we have this "Comeback QB" Tier, consisting of Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz, two guys who almost single-handedly willed their fantasy owners into the playoffs. These two guys will likely be mixed in with the likes of the Tier 2 QBs (Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins etc...) but it will be interesting to see how many people jump on them and at what point in the draft.

 

RB - Running back is DEEEEP in this years draft in terms of "1st or 2nd Round Talent". However, after that, it gets pretty rocky...If you're in 12 or 14+ Team leagues, it gets really dicey around Round 4 (basically anything after ADP 40). The "consistency" factor goes completely out the window, with guys like Alex Collins, Carlos Hyde, and a bunch of other unproven rookies. There are definitely some nice value picks in rounds 4-7 in the drafts for RBs, guys who have the potential to put up big seasons. But I think you can argue that about 12 of the first 20 picks in the draft will likely be RBs.

 

WR - Wide Receivers are interesting as well. I wrote about this at the end of last season, but it's insane to think that you can now get someone like Michael Thomas, AJ Green, OBJ, or Mike Evans at Pick 14 - 20. That's just how deep the "Top Tier RB" class is this year.

 

I think there's a legitimate case for people hoping to get the #10-14 draft spots this year based upon the opportunity to pluck players like Michael Thomas and AJ Green back-to-back, as opposed to picking Bell, and having to wait another 24-28 picks. Unlike past drafts, where there have been only 1-3 dual threat RB's like LeVeon or David Johnson, there's a legitimate chance we see 8-10 RBs each put up 1500 total yards. (Bell, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Fournette, Hunt, Gordon, Howard etc...)

Edited by CORTEz
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To give a bit of a contrarian talking point to what's already been mentioned, I'm thinking about looking at QB and TE earlier than most.  After doing some mocks and seeing the trends, I'm considering taking a QB and/or TE in the 4th/5th/6th round range.  Looking back at past drafts, the success rate in those rounds to find a player that actually sticks on your roster for the season and contributes is quite low.  My 2017 picks in those rounds included Crowder, D. Parker, Abdullah, M. Bryant, Maclin, . . . and Tom Brady.  Clearly one of these pieces was more useful than the others.  

 

I understand the logic that there is lots of upside to be had in these rounds, and the old "if you find an RB1 or WR1 in the mid rounds you will win your league," but the fact is it's more of a needle in a haystack in those rounds than it is a coin flip.  Every player's outlook is rosy and full of promise in the preseason, but when you look at the RBs and WRs in this range they are far from sure things.  Your choices are basically to jump on the rookie RB train and grab whoever comes to you, or take an unproven or low upside WR.  

 

If you go QB early, you're going against the grain and essentially giving yourself the opportunity to pick whichever one you want (outside of likely Rodgers, unless you go QB in the 3rd).  And the nice thing about QB is that it is the least volatile position in fantasy.  If you get a good one, outside of injury (which is less at QB, but all the same a prevalent risk) you're virtually guaranteed a good plug and play option all year.  Take your pick of Brady or Wilson or whoever and set it and forget it.  

 

TE is a similar thought process, but to a slightly lesser degree due to the big dropoff from Gronk/Ertz/Kelce to the rest of the pack.  But again, as long as the health is there, you can take a guy like Olsen or Walker in the mid rounds while everyone is taking dart throws at RB and WR, and have a player that gives you an advantage at the position, and one less headache of running to the WW weekly to fill.  

 

Where I've been mocking from is the 1st pick, since that's what I have in my main money league, and going this route I come out of the mocks feeling like I nailed down 5 sure-fire, year-long fantasy starters in my first 5 picks.  Gurley at #1, then a pair of whoever is there out of Howard/McKinnon/Baldwin/Hilton/Evans/etc at 24/25, and then say Wilson and Olsen at 48/49.  Or at 49 you can still take a lick at whatever upside RB tickles your fancy that's still there, like Sony or RoJo, and then at 72/73 take a TE like Walker or Rudolph that still gives you security at the position.  

 

I can understand the logic in loading up on RB and WR and then just grabbing a QB and TE late and playing the wire, but the problem is there are no guarantees you hit on any of those mid-round picks, between injuries, not performing, etc.  And then you're not only playing the waiver wire for RB and WR, but also for QB and TE.  Not to mention there is also lots of upside in the later rounds as well, and as much as the argument is true that if you find an RB1 in the mid rounds you're golden, you're in even better shape with Wilson or Brady at QB and a solid TE and finding a gem at RB in the 10th round.  But just wanted to throw out a different way of thinking.

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21 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

1. I always wait on QB, unless I hate the RB/WR available and Kelce/Gronk/Ertz are gone. 

 

2. RB is “deeper” than years past and are cool again, so they are going 1st round. 

 

3. Lots of great WR options in rounds 2-4 due to the sheep going back to early “RB-RB” strategies 

 

For me, there are a ton of mid round WRs I like, and RBs drop off fast. If I go RB/RB it isn't because I'm a sheep; it is how I feel like I can build the best team.

 

- I'm targeting Reed at TE.

- Am likely to be the last person to draft a QB.

- Kicker Defense in last 2 rounds.

 

I use best player available for the most part.

Edited by dmb3684
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21 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

5. drink yerself silly before reading FBG's "Rate My Team" schtick ... if you draft like me you will be disemboweled by those pretentious muthas. 

 

Haha, they always love my teams there.  But, i use them only in my toughest league- its a one click analysis from MFL's site.    Those teams are 50/50 in a tough league.   I change up my strategy too so its not like they favor teams that do X all the time.   

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6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

For me, there are a ton of mid round WRs I like

 

 a ton?

 

i keep seeing the same thought process up on this forum, and i call bullchit on it.  

 

the last viable WR i'd be ok with in my starting lineup is Watkins, and he's barely making it out the fifth lately.   maybe sixth round, but it's early sixth, if that.  

 

i will bag 2 solid starters by round 5, then ignore the position 'til the teens, and spec DeDe and Mike Williams.  i'd rather have a boatload of RBs than a bunch of weekly "4/36/0" WRs.  

 

so, again, plz elaborate on this "ton" of midtier ball grabbers ... 

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For 12 team PPR by pick:

 

1-3: 1.) RB 2.) WR 3.) WR 4.) WR (or rodgers if avail.) 5.) QB (or WR if 4 is rodgers) 6.) 7-10th.) Best available 11-13.) Fliers 14-15.) K, DST 16.) TE (unless decent value during 7-10th, then another flier or backup qb)

 

4-6: 1.) RB or Brown 2.) RB 3.) RB 4.) WR 5.) WR 6.) WR 7.) WR 8.) QB 9-14.) Best available 15-16.) K-DST

 

7-9: 1-3.) WR 4.) RB 5.) rodgers, wilson or RB 6.) RB 7.) WR 8.) WR 9-14.) Best available 15-16.) K-DST

 

10-12: 1.) RB/Wr 2.) whichever of the 2 you didn't pick in 1st 3-4.) same as 1-2 5-12.) Best available, get qb eventually 13.) TE 14.) DST 15-16.) Flier/K

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35 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

For me, there are a ton of mid round WRs I like, and RBs drop off fast. If I go RB/RB it isn't because I'm a sheep; it is how I feel like I can build the best team.

 

- I'm targeting Reed at TE.

- Am likely to be the last person to draft a QB.

- Kicker Defense in last 2 rounds.

 

I use best player available for the most part.

 

Not an insult, simply commenting on the “strategy trends” I’ve noticed over the years 

 

Used to be everyone took a RB first round ... then they became taboo and “WR WR” was the way ... RBs are cool again. 

 

I’m more than willing to go RB-RB if that’s how the draft unfolds (the runs between my picks dictate how my picks go, I don’t ever go in with a set strategy - just a few guys I’m definitely targeting/reaching for)

 

I had no intention of going TE early in our rotoworld 14 team mock/real league - but Kelce was the best player available at my 3rd round pick in my opinion so I took him and adjusted accordingly 

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54 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

 a ton?

 

i keep seeing the same thought process up on this forum, and i call bullchit on it.  

 

the last viable WR i'd be ok with in my starting lineup is Watkins, and he's barely making it out the fifth lately.   maybe sixth round, but it's early sixth, if that.  

 

i will bag 2 solid starters by round 5, then ignore the position 'til the teens, and spec DeDe and Mike Williams.  i'd rather have a boatload of RBs than a bunch of weekly "4/36/0" WRs.  

 

so, again, plz elaborate on this "ton" of midtier ball grabbers ... 

 

WRs going in the 6th round or later I like in no particular order.

 

Edelman

Garcon

Crowder

Roby

Goodwin

Parker

Kupp

Bryant

 

The list of RBs in that span is a bunch of question marks for me.

 

There are multiple ways to build a winner, just my take on this year.

 

The only strategy that makes zero sense to me is picking a defense or kicker in the middle rounds. Other than that, whatever floats your boat.

 

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30 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

For 12 team PPR by pick:

 

1-3: 1.) RB 2.) WR 3.) WR 4.) WR (or rodgers if avail.) 5.) QB (or WR if 4 is rodgers) 6.) 7-10th.) Best available 11-13.) Fliers 14-15.) K, DST 16.) TE (unless decent value during 7-10th, then another flier or backup qb)

 

4-6: 1.) RB or Brown 2.) RB 3.) RB 4.) WR 5.) WR 6.) WR 7.) WR 8.) QB 9-14.) Best available 15-16.) K-DST

 

7-9: 1-3.) WR 4.) RB 5.) rodgers, wilson or RB 6.) RB 7.) WR 8.) WR 9-14.) Best available 15-16.) K-DST

 

10-12: 1.) RB/Wr 2.) whichever of the 2 you didn't pick in 1st 3-4.) same as 1-2 5-12.) Best available, get qb eventually 13.) TE 14.) DST 15-16.) Flier/K

 

That is wayyy to precise. The draft is a fluid situation. Don't see the point of mapping out picks like that.

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6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

WRs going in the 6th round or later I like in no particular order.

 

Edelman

Garcon

Crowder

Roby

Goodwin

Parker

Kupp

Bryant

 

The list of RBs in that span is a bunch of question marks for me.

 

There are multiple ways to build a winner, just my take on this year.

 

The only strategy that makes zero sense to me is picking a defense or kicker in the middle rounds. Other than that, whatever floats your boat.

 

 

see, to me "midtier" = rds. 7/8/9 (16 tound draft) - of the guys you listed, yeah, i can dig ARob. 

 

still, your list is far from "a ton", and perhaps you meant it more euphemistically than verbatim - but, yeah, outside of ARob i'm not Archie relying on any of those listed as weekly starters - and i highly doubt ARob is gonna be on any boards past the fifth rd.

 

Edelman fits, but that 4 game ban throws me off, unless he slides way the eff down, and last mocks i've run he has been going in the fifth, at times. 

 

i can agree with your final nugget, but we're far apart on the WR schtick - cool enough. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

see, to me "midtier" = rds. 7/8/9 (16 tound draft) - of the guys you listed, yeah, i can dig ARob. 

 

still, your list is far from "a ton", and perhaps you meant it more euphemistically than verbatim - but, yeah, outside of ARob i'm not Archie relying on any of those listed as weekly starters - and i highly doubt ARob is gonna be on any boards past the fifth rd.

 

Edelman fits, but that 4 game ban throws me off, unless he slides way the eff down, and last mocks i've run he has been going in the fifth, at times. 

 

i can agree with your final nugget, but we're far apart on the WR schtick - cool enough. 

 

 

 

That is off the top of my head. There are likely more.

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16 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

still, your list is far from "a ton"

That's just the confusion between metric and imperial tons. 

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11 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

That is off the top of my head. There are likely more.

 

uh huh, but, "top of the head" usually yields the best options, as they're paramount to illucidating one's point ... so, yeah, not buying the "midtier gold" nonsense. 

 

8 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

That's just the confusion between metric and imperial tons. 

 

sorta like feathers and iron bars, amirite?

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In standard RBs are thin as usual and I feel like there are several land mines that are set to explode in rounds 1-4.

 

also in standard, I don’t have a lot of respect for WRs beyond being “safe” relative to their ADP. Too much variance week to week.

 

Zach Ertz + C Wentz TD regression + Ertz’s current ADP = I’ve got a bad feeling about this. 

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4 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

sorta like feathers and iron bars, amirite?

Well yeah, but then a metric ****load of feathers vs an imperial crapload of iron bars. In a vacuum it's all the same.

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31 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

WRs going in the 6th round or later I like in no particular order.

 

Edelman

Garcon

Crowder

Roby

Goodwin

Parker

Kupp

Bryant

 

The list of RBs in that span is a bunch of question marks for me.

 

There are multiple ways to build a winner, just my take on this year.

 

The only strategy that makes zero sense to me is picking a defense or kicker in the middle rounds. Other than that, whatever floats your boat.

 

 

Yep, I'm with this.  I'm scared of the RB's after the McKinnon/Howard area.  I need two of those for sure.   I feel as though I can get by with a lot of later round WR's.   My faves are Corey Davis, Fuller, Garcon, Kupp, Robbie Anderson, Stills, and a few more.    

 

But you're spot on about multiple strategies working.  I posted something like this in another thread:   For a pretty similar cost last year in my auction, one could've gotten the following:

Hopkins

Pryor

Thielen and Robbie Anderson

Cobb and Moncrief

 

Obviously two of those options were great, the other sucked, but both would've been very different in nature. 

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10 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

uh huh, but, "top of the head" usually yields the best options, as they're paramount to illucidating one's point ... so, yeah, not buying the "midtier gold" nonsense. 

 

 

sorta like feathers and iron bars, amirite?

 

You are just arguing semantics.

 

I like the middle round WRs a lot more than mid round RBs, thus I am taking RBs early.

 

Clear enough bud?

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6 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I like the middle round WRs a lot more than mid round RBs, thus I am taking RBs early.

 

ooooh, now there's a novel strategy!!!1!1  I BET YOU'LL BE THE ONLY GUY THIS SEASON TO TAKE THAT APPROACH!11!

 

8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

 

Clear enough bud?

 

CRYSTAL, Richard

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8 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

ooooh, now there's a novel strategy!!!1!1  I BET YOU'LL BE THE ONLY GUY THIS SEASON TO TAKE THAT APPROACH!11!

 

 

CRYSTAL, Richard

 

Not sure what your deal is. People are having a solid conversation about draft strategy. Add another to the ignore list.

 

Good luck.

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