BetterCallHinkie

Tobias Harris 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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10 minutes ago, danman227460 said:

 

Yep.  I can see that but if he keeps up his percentages and gives me at least 20 PPG with some boards and assists, I'll be happy.  If he develops some defensive stats, that will be good too.  I wonder if Philly will experiment with having Harris run with the second unit sometimes.  He can help Philly preserve Embidd and Simmons during games where Harris can run the offense. 

It isn't all doom and gloom but his value will take a hit.  But he has potential in some games to go off if they are resting any of their players.  

 

I agree it isn't all doom and gloom given that the percentages albeit on less shots and probably 2 threes a game remain because the Sixers were in desperate need of another floor spacer and he will provide that. 

 

But no chance he averages 20 PPG anymore.  They now have 5 guys averaging at least 17 PPG in their starting lineup.  Their bench is still depleted so we know they will stagger them, but logically, all of us Tobias owners need to become content with 14-15 PPG going forward.

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Tobias doesn't need the ball as much as Butler and therefore is a better fit in PHI. Frankly Butler better play the 6th man role in this roster but I'd rather they keep Covington and Saric in the first place.

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3 minutes ago, littlesamtung said:

Tobias doesn't need the ball as much as Butler and therefore is a better fit in PHI. Frankly Butler better play the 6th man role in this roster but I'd rather they keep Covington and Saric in the first place.

This is what's giving me hope. Toby can shoot lights out from 3, and that by itself is extremely valuable next to guys like Embiid and Simmons. 

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Don’t worry, as a gallo owner it’s not leaps and bounds better either. Because of this trade, Gallo might be shut down for the clippers’ tank, and if they trade him to NO for AD, the shut down could happen even sooner.

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What Tank? The Clippers are in the 8th seed at this point 

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I think we probably get Pistons Toby. 17/6 with great percentages. Basically dropping from second round value to 4th-5th. 

 

Sigh. As a Toby/Reddick/Gallo owner this trade screws me in multiple ways if Clips tank and shut down Gallo. 

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Just now, urban2014 said:

What Tank? The Clippers are in the 8th seed at this point 

 

My understanding is that clippers have a 1st round pick protected for 1-14, otherwise it goes to Boston. Getting the Miami pick was a great move, but they don’t trade away their star while they hover at 8th seed unless they are materializing the value of their picks.

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4 minutes ago, mcflywalker said:

Don’t worry, as a gallo owner it’s not leaps and bounds better either. Because of this trade, Gallo might be shut down for the clippers’ tank, and if they trade him to NO for AD, the shut down could happen even sooner.

 

2 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

What Tank? The Clippers are in the 8th seed at this point 

 

Yeah, they are not tanking, but it's still a weird move to get rid of your best player while in the playoff hunt. How soon before they fall out of playoff contention without Harris? 

 

As for Harris, this definitely hurts, but considering what they traded away and are assuming in cap hit, you  have to think they plan on making Harris as a significant part of the offense. Also with Harris, the Sixers may be more comfortable giving Embiid some time off down the stretch. I guess we will see how it plays out. 

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15 minutes ago, RCRanger03 said:

Ugh as a Butler/Tobias guy this really is the worst 

 

I have Embiid, Butler, and Tobias...

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6 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

What Tank? The Clippers are in the 8th seed at this point 

 

If they make the playoffs they will need to give their first round pick this year to Boston.  This trade solidifies that they are not trying to make the playoffs anymore.

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1 minute ago, mcflywalker said:

 

My understanding is that clippers have a 1st round pick protected for 1-14, otherwise it goes to Boston. Getting the Miami pick was a great move, but they don’t trade away their star while they hover at 8th seed unless they are materializing the value of their picks.

 

Those picks have great value for offseason moves as well. Doesn't necessarily mean a tank for this season. I hope?  :unsure:

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2 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

 

Yeah, they are not tanking, but it's still a weird move to get rid of your best player while in the playoff hunt. How soon before they fall out of playoff contention without Harris? 

 

As for Harris, this definitely hurts, but considering what they traded away and are assuming in cap hit, you  have to think they plan on making Harris as a significant part of the offense. Also with Harris, the Sixers may be more comfortable giving Embiid some time off down the stretch. I guess we will see how it plays out. 

 

They aren’t making playoffs. Kings are 2 games behind, Lakers 3 games. Even if they traded for AD, that move would likely require gallo, Harrell, Lou will maybe, shai perhaps. I don’t know who they’d ship away that could beat the kings especially if the kings get someone on the cheap like Barnes.

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1 minute ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

Those picks have great value for offseason moves as well. Doesn't necessarily mean a tank for this season. I hope?  :unsure:

Clippers do not want to make the playoffs. Otherwise they do not have the pick ( goes to Boston)

It has tank written on the front page

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I guess Sacramento or Lakers will take it. Let Sacramento take revenge for 2002

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The pick is 1-14 protected for 2019 and 1-14 protected for 2020, if it falls out of that range either year, it goes to Boston. If the pick doesn’t go to Boston by 2020, Clippers only fork up a 2022 2nd rounder to Boston.

 

Jerry West isn’t helping the Celtics.

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12 minutes ago, mcflywalker said:

 

They aren’t making playoffs. Kings are 2 games behind, Lakers 3 games. Even if they traded for AD, that move would likely require gallo, Harrell, Lou will maybe, shai perhaps. I don’t know who they’d ship away that could beat the kings especially if the kings get someone on the cheap like Barnes.

 

They have accumulated too many wins to worry about tanking at this point. It would be like worrying that the twolves will tank. 

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2 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

They have accumulated too many wins to worry about tanking at this point. It would be like worrying that the twolves will tank. 

 

Twolves didn’t just trade away Towns in the midst of their run. And one can argue, if they weren’t so beat up, they’d be higher in the standings. They really should do away with Wiggins, however.

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6 minutes ago, mcflywalker said:

 

Twolves didn’t just trade away Towns in the midst of their run. And one can argue, if they weren’t so beat up, they’d be higher in the standings. They really should do away with Wiggins, however.

 

Towns wasn’t set to become a FA next year though.

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The nearest comparison I can think of to Tobias now is Mook with C's. Pts on good FG%, 3s, rbs, and trickle of assists and defensive stats. They almost have the same usage (TH's 23% to MM's 21%) and tsg 61%. Difference I see is that the Cs have two ball dominant playmakers who have low usage (Al and Smart), which helps props up MM's usage. However, the C's have a legitimate bench, so they don't really need to stagger their starters. Sixers, on the other hand, got even more depleted, so I think (well, optimistically) Tobias can maintain his 23% usage and still give 20ppg, 8rbs, 2ast on good %s. That said, it should have already happened with Butler, but we aren't seeing that. BUT, Tobias can be a spot up shooter, while Butler needs the ball in his hands and a terrible 3pt shooter. Base case, I kinda expect Mirotic-like lines in Pels: 17ppg, 7rbs, 2ast. Niko works with 21% usage and rolls with the bench when AD sat. 

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This is more about the Clippers unwillingness to pay Tobias this summer than it is about them tanking. they had no intentions of resigning him so they got something in return instead of letting him walk for nothing in July.

Edited by FantasyBallFan

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27 minutes ago, t0087669 said:

Clippers do not want to make the playoffs. Otherwise they do not have the pick ( goes to Boston)

It has tank written on the front page

 

It's that simple. Don't know why people are arguing with how many wins they currently have. 

 

Tanking doesn't just mean that you're gunning for the 1st pick overall. They want to keep their pick and yeah, if they can get a top 10 pick they'd be pretty happy. 

 

The Clips want to keep their pick as it would be an additional asset moving forward. They don't want to make the playoffs. They were just better than anticipated while other teams were a bit underwhelming. The 8th seed gets them a loss of a first round pick and a 4-0 whooping against the Warriors. You know LeBron is gunning for the playoffs and they will make it. 

 

Jerry West isn't done making moves. 

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1 minute ago, ellejamil said:

The nearest comparison I can think of to Tobias now is Mook with C's. Pts on good FG%, 3s, rbs, and trickle of assists and defensive stats. They almost have the same usage (TH's 23% to MM's 21%) and tsg 61%. Difference I see is that the Cs have two ball dominant playmakers who have low usage (Al and Smart), which helps props up MM's usage. However, the C's have a legitimate bench, so they don't really need to stagger their starters. Sixers, on the other hand, got even more depleted, so I think (well, optimistically) Tobias can maintain his 23% usage and still give 20ppg, 8rbs, 2ast on good %s. That said, it should have already happened with Butler, but we aren't seeing that. BUT, Tobias can be a spot up shooter, while Butler needs the ball in his hands and a terrible 3pt shooter. Base case, I kinda expect Mirotic-like lines in Pels: 17ppg, 7rbs, 2ast. Niko works with 21% usage and rolls with the bench when AD sat. 

 

Nice breakdown. I hope you're right. I can live with 17/7 with his %s

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