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RedDogNamedClippers

Carmelo Anthony 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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17 hours ago, young_styler said:

 

I'm expecting 17 and 6 , similar to last year, with 2.5 threes on 45/83. His percentages were uncharacteristically low last year playing in okc which killed his value.

 

14 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Carmelo's FG% the last 5 years: 45.2, 44.4, 43.3, 43.3, 40.4 (38.4 last three months). Is he really getting the FG's back to 45%? 

 

His 9-cat ranking over that time: 7, 29, 37, 60, 120 (158) 

 

A pattern seems to be emerging . . .  

 

 

Wanted to continue this discussion here now that he is officially a Rocket. Where you think he will be drafted in most drafts. I feel like 8th might be the ceiling.

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Yes he's been declining for years but Houston is a different animal altogether.  I'm not expecting anything great, but 17 and 6 with 2.5 threes seems about right.  Crap stocks and low FG (maybe back up to 43%?).  Good FT but probably medium to low volume.  If you need 3's, points, and FT he could help your team i suppose.  What players are you drafting before/after him (where do you have him ranked?)  

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I'm expecting him to be drafted somewhere around the 9th round in most drafts, i got him in the 10th in our mock. I think he's bound to improve his efficiency which will easily put him in the top 100 finish (I'm expecting a per game finish of around 80) but even if he finishes at 100, at a 9th round price tag you're still taking him at his value and you know what you're getting, points, 3s some boards and ft%. He even finished at #90 overall in total value last year. 

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5 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

Yes he's been declining for years but Houston is a different animal altogether.  I'm not expecting anything great, but 17 and 6 with 2.5 threes seems about right.  Crap stocks and low FG (maybe back up to 43%?).  Good FT but probably medium to low volume.  If you need 3's, points, and FT he could help your team i suppose.  What players are you drafting before/after him (where do you have him ranked?)  

Honestly, i think 17 6 and 2.5 3's is a best case scenario. i think his fantasy rank will be lower than what his counting stats show because of his fg% TO and subpar stocks. As mentioned, if you need scoring and average rebs with 2 3's a game...then yeah go for him...but you can find that almost anywhere nowadays...Players like JR Smith can produce similar numbers and can be found probably much later in the draft. i personally will not go out of my way for Melo however if he's there in the 8th, 9th round in a 12 team league ill consider. Any league smaller than 12, forget about it. 

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Again, don't forget about the poor point. guard and defensive numbers. Melo's averages last year (and they won't change much):

 

Assists: 1.3

Turnovers: 1.3

Steals: 0.6

Blocks: 0.6

 

You can't just look at the positives. That's how half of you take 160 rank point guards in the 9th round. Look at the whole picture. I really doubt a 34-year-old Melo improves and posts Top 100 value, in large part because of his fantasy deficiencies. 

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4 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Again, don't forget about the poor point. guard and defensive numbers. Melo's averages last year (and they won't change much):

 

Assists: 1.3

Turnovers: 1.3

Steals: 0.6

Blocks: 0.6

 

You can't just look at the positives. That's how half of you take 160 rank point guards in the 9th round. Look at the whole picture. I really doubt a 34-year-old Melo improves and posts Top 100 value, in large part because of his fantasy deficiencies. 

.6 blocks and 1.3 TO are actually at the median or better than the median. Really it’s only assists, steals, and FG% where he is lacking.  

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4 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

.6 blocks and 1.3 TO are actually at the median or better than the median. Really it’s only assists, steals, and FG% where he is lacking.  

Turnovers and assists need to be looked at together, and I tend to look at blocks and steals together. Block median is 0.6-0.7 depending on league size, I believe. 

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14 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Again, don't forget about the poor point. guard and defensive numbers. Melo's averages last year (and they won't change much):

 

Assists: 1.3

Turnovers: 1.3

Steals: 0.6

Blocks: 0.6

 

You can't just look at the positives. That's how half of you take 160 rank point guards in the 9th round. Look at the whole picture. I really doubt a 34-year-old Melo improves and posts Top 100 value, in large part because of his fantasy deficiencies. 

 

8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

.6 blocks and 1.3 TO are actually at the median or better than the median. Really it’s only assists, steals, and FG% where he is lacking.  

 

I'm going to guess in this offense his assists might go up closer to 2.5-3?  Similar pace of play to OKC but Houston has better efficiency, shooting, and assist rates.  

Edited by hipriest69

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Turnovers and assists need to be looked at together, and I tend to look at blocks and steals together. Block median is 0.6-0.7 depending on league size, I believe. 

Looking at it as A/To is one way to look at it, but I wouldn’t say they need to be looked at that way.  Looking at it as combined stocks is even less tenuous of a connection.  I’m more inclined to see things as assists/steals being connected which Melo would paint Melo in an unflattering light because he isn’t a guard. Conversely if you realize he’s predominately a power guard his 6 reb/.6 blocks don’t look too bad. .6 blocks is the median I use.  

 

Most people would rather chase a rising star than resurrect a fallen angel.  But from a mathematical standpoint it’s all the same.  I think Melo’s comps are Lauri and Saric.  If you were to ask most people who they would rather have among those three almost none of them would say Melo.  But I would wager even money that the three of them finish no more than one round apart in total season long value.  

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6 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

I'm going to guess in this offense his assists might go up closer to 2.5-3?  Similar pace of play to OKC but Houston has better efficiency, shooting, and assist rates.  

I would say his ceiling is around 2, and that's if they use him. But his pure point ratio is bad. The more he's used as a facilitator, the more it may actually diminish his 9-cat value. And with Harden and CP3 often sharing the floor, I see no reason to run plays through Melo, especially with him getting paid a tenth of what he was paid last year. 

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Yeah I think his primary role will be a stretch 4 to replace Ryno because Tucker is needed for defense.  I don’t expect an improvement in assists but I do think he will score more in a faster pace with CP3 passing to him and Harden taking away the attention of the defense.  Westbrook is a pretty difficult player to play with and destroyed Oladipo’s value which is why I think last year was an outlier even if Melo doesn’t have many years left.  Last year he was used as a pure 3 point specialist and he choked, really he’s only an average 3 point shooter anyway.  People forget he’s good in the post and is a natural PF.  So I don’t think 17/6/2.5 is out of the question even if I think that’s a bit optimistic.  17/6/2.5 with 2 assists, .6/.6 in stocks, 45%/83%/1.3 is top 60-75 value.  If your assumptions are that he can’t hit those numbers you can start adjusting his value downward from there but I think that’s a reasonable starting point. 

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Again, I think it's extremely realistic that he hits your projections, and the points make sense as per usual. But yeah, I don't expect he hits those numbers, and I'd like to note that Houston and OKC were only separated by a possession in pace. I don't expect anything to be higher than you have it, and I think the points, boards, 3s, assists, FG% and FT% will all be slightly lower (and the turnovers higher, I think a 1.7/1.7 is pretty likely). I think he pushes for a Top 100 distinction and likely doesn't reach it. Donovan also plays his 5 a bit more than D'Antoni, so I wouldn't expect increased minutes, either.

Edited by miasma16

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Hey, I’ll take top 100.  I don’t plan on drafting him in redraft unless he falls pretty far. But I have him in one dynasty league where I traded Dwight Powell for him to an owner who was looking to go younger.  So as long as he surpasses Powell I’m happy!

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On 7/24/2018 at 9:52 AM, miasma16 said:

I would say his ceiling is around 2, and that's if they use him. But his pure point ratio is bad. The more he's used as a facilitator, the more it may actually diminish his 9-cat value. And with Harden and CP3 often sharing the floor, I see no reason to run plays through Melo, especially with him getting paid a tenth of what he was paid last year. 

 

I was thinking less as a facilitator and more as a result of simply better ball movement and better shooters around him could easily push him up to 2.

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57 minutes ago, Nene said:

How will Melo influence Hardens value?

Harden is at the very apex peak of his prime expect another MVP quality season, Melo has simply swapped into Ariza/Luc's position won't effect anything at all. He's still #1 over Davis imo.

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On 7/27/2018 at 6:26 AM, Nene said:

How will Melo influence Hardens value?

About the same chance as Ryno impacting his value.  

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I think his FG% will go way up this year along with his scoring.

Edited by dekciw_1

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I think he will be good. I'll target him for sure for late stable scoring thats very important. And its melo too so certain games he will still go off for 25-30 when harden shooting goes cold. Will be nice boost for pts/3s decent rebs and %'s

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I don't think he will be good but I think he will be rosterable.  16/6 with 2 threes on poor percentages.  No stocks.  

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6 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don't think he will be good but I think he will be rosterable.  16/6 with 2 threes on poor percentages.  No stocks.  


How poor? You think 45/80+ is not manageable for Melo?

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