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Draymond Green 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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well holy s--- it's finally happened ....... ESPN have removed his "SF" eligibility

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I’m pretty low on draymond this year.  I think cousins impacts his value.  His points won’t go down as they couldn’t get go any lower and his stocks shouldn’t go down as that’s largely a matter of defensive effort/skill.  But cousins is a great rebounder and passer from the post.  Whatever draymond does in that regard cousins does better.  So I could see draymond going down to 10/6/6/1.3/1.3/1.3.  He was already below the median in all three efficiency cats.  That means he would be below the median in the three efficiency cats and points.  At or slightly above median in rebounds and threes.  And only above in stocks and assists.  By my estimation that would put him around 50-60 in the player rater.  He already fell to mid 30s in the rater last year.  It may be a shock to see him outside the top 50 but that’s my fear.  His career arch has been fascinating.  From no expectations to being a second round player to falling the past two years, not due to a decline in skill or age, but because he sacrificed for a championship squad.  When cousins doesn’t play he should retain his typical value though. 

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m pretty low on draymond this year.  I think cousins impacts his value.  His points won’t go down as they couldn’t get go any lower and his stocks shouldn’t go down as that’s largely a matter of defensive effort/skill.  But cousins is a great rebounder and passer from the post.  Whatever draymond does in that regard cousins does better.  So I could see draymond going down to 10/6/6/1.3/1.3/1.3.  He was already below the median in all three efficiency cats.  That means he would be below the median in the three efficiency cats and points.  At or slightly above median in rebounds and threes.  And only above in stocks and assists.  By my estimation that would put him around 50-60 in the player rater.  He already fell to mid 30s in the rater last year.  It may be a shock to see him outside the top 50 but that’s my fear.  His career arch has been fascinating.  From no expectations to being a second round player to falling the past two years, not due to a decline in skill or age, but because he sacrificed for a championship squad.  When cousins doesn’t play he should retain his typical value though. 

 

I think I won't draft any Warrior's players... ( well except Jordan Bell :D )... just too many mouths to feed... + "injury management" thing... No tnx... 

I'll draft KD or Steph only when AD, KAT, Harden, Jokic, Giannis and Lillard are gone... Call me crazy but that's how I feel... I just can't be without my first round pick in the playoffs... 

 

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited by Stefan
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41 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m pretty low on draymond this year.  I think cousins impacts his value.  His points won’t go down as they couldn’t get go any lower and his stocks shouldn’t go down as that’s largely a matter of defensive effort/skill.  But cousins is a great rebounder and passer from the post.  Whatever draymond does in that regard cousins does better.  So I could see draymond going down to 10/6/6/1.3/1.3/1.3.  He was already below the median in all three efficiency cats.  That means he would be below the median in the three efficiency cats and points.  At or slightly above median in rebounds and threes.  And only above in stocks and assists.  By my estimation that would put him around 50-60 in the player rater.  He already fell to mid 30s in the rater last year.  It may be a shock to see him outside the top 50 but that’s my fear.  His career arch has been fascinating.  From no expectations to being a second round player to falling the past two years, not due to a decline in skill or age, but because he sacrificed for a championship squad.  When cousins doesn’t play he should retain his typical value though. 

 

If Draymond earns MVP, DPOY or makes an All-Nba team this year, he will become elegible for a super-max extension worth 226 million.

There is no way Warriors give him that kind of money, but I think he will try his best to put himself in that position. Last season he looked disengaged during the regular season, but he came back to live in the playoffs. I bet he plays this season with a chip on his shoulder every single night.

Cousins is gonna lose a good chunk of the RS, and as GM Meyers said, Warriors want him to be truly ready por the POs. That means to me that they will manage him very careful until then. Draymond will have plenty of room to make his thing.

 

 

 

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staying away unless falls to round 4. Especially in H2H, because Cousins will be back, and I feel Draymond will suffer the most among all GSW All-Stars with Cousins taking away his assists, rebounds and even blocks inside.

 

I am avoiding all 5 GSW all stars unless they fall. Durant and Curry will only pick them if 7-10 range not in first 5. Klay and Draymond if fall to round 4. However, there is little chance for them to fall that far because of their names. GSW has NOTHING to play for in regular season. It will be just 82 games of going through the motions and integrating Cousins into their team

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11 minutes ago, berriki said:

 

If Draymond earns MVP, DPOY or makes an All-Nba team this year, he will become elegible for a super-max extension worth 226 million.

There is no way Warriors give him that kind of money, but I think he will try his best to put himself in that position. Last season he looked disengaged during the regular season, but he came back to live in the playoffs. I bet he plays this season with a chip on his shoulder every single night.

Cousins is gonna lose a good chunk of the RS, and as GM Meyers said, Warriors want him to be truly ready por the POs. That means to me that they will manage him very careful until then. Draymond will have plenty of room to make his thing.

 

 

 

I don’t really buy into these sorts of arguments.  These are grown men who play ball for a living.  With a few notable exceptions I assume that they’re playing to the maximum of their effort all the time.  You’re saying Draymond looked disengaged but perhaps he was tired or otherwise giving full effort and he wasn’t a part of the rotation.  Granted DMC will not play all of the time and he’s out for a part for the season early anyway.  That said, draymond was just a third round value last season so to expect him to be better than that is very unrealistic imo.  I thought about taking him on the wheel of the 2nd/3rd in our mock but couldn’t pull the trigger.  I think if people draft him early this year they will be disappointed. 

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19 minutes ago, berriki said:

 

If Draymond earns MVP, DPOY or makes an All-Nba team this year, he will become elegible for a super-max extension worth 226 million.

There is no way Warriors give him that kind of money, but I think he will try his best to put himself in that position. Last season he looked disengaged during the regular season, but he came back to live in the playoffs. I bet he plays this season with a chip on his shoulder every single night.

Cousins is gonna lose a good chunk of the RS, and as GM Meyers said, Warriors want him to be truly ready por the POs. That means to me that they will manage him very careful until then. Draymond will have plenty of room to make his thing.

 

 

 

 

The last 3 years has taught us that none of these Warriors all stars care about individual accolades. The common goal is to win a title, and have fun doing it. I don't think Draymond has his mindset on becoming super max eligible, he will get paid regardless.

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4 minutes ago, a-rob said:

 

The last 3 years has taught us that none of these Warriors all stars care about individual accolades. The common goal is to win a title, and have fun doing it. I don't think Draymond has his mindset on becoming super max eligible, he will get paid regardless.

 

Hmmm OK... then why didn't he sign contract extension this summer ?? Bob Myers tried to convince him and Klay to do so...

 

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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I don't think Cuz affects Dray much if at all.  Cuz coasts through regular season to get healthy, gets his ring and then gets paid by a new team.

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15 minutes ago, Stefan said:

 

Hmmm OK... then why didn't he sign contract extension this summer ?? Bob Myers tried to convince him and Klay to do so...

 

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Klay has gone on record saying he intends to stay with the Warriors. Draymond hasn't declared anything like that and I have no idea how Bob Myers will keep everyone happy. But the point is, Draymond isn't going to go out there this year and have DPOY All NBA team as his goals. the goal is to get a 3peat.

 

 I owned Durant last year, and it was so frustrating. He sat out so many games due to soreness. Warriors will be extra careful with their All-Stars. 

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2 hours ago, Stefan said:

 

Hmmm OK... then why didn't he sign contract extension this summer ?? Bob Myers tried to convince him and Klay to do so...

 

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I don't know the specifics, but having a fairly ordinary season by recent standards allows them to go from 100 million to like 190 million just by waiting a year. I do not know the specifics, but it is a massive amount and that is why guys like Draymond, Klay, Jimmy, Kyrie are all waiting. And a few of those guys are injury prone and waiting. It is a massive difference. 

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6 hours ago, a-rob said:

 

The last 3 years has taught us that none of these Warriors all stars care about individual accolades. The common goal is to win a title, and have fun doing it. I don't think Draymond has his mindset on becoming super max eligible, he will get paid regardless.

Not entirely true. The second Durant landed in Golden State he said he wanted to lead the league in rebounds. That's why the whole "he has better teammates, he'll be better in fantasy because of efficiency" argument rarely works out and Durant is a prime exception and prime player to have on your team (when playing). 

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6 hours ago, a-rob said:

Klay has gone on record saying he intends to stay with the Warriors. Draymond hasn't declared anything like that and I have no idea how Bob Myers will keep everyone happy. But the point is, Draymond isn't going to go out there this year and have DPOY All NBA team as his goals. the goal is to get a 3peat.

 

 I owned Durant last year, and it was so frustrating. He sat out so many games due to soreness. Warriors will be extra careful with their All-Stars. 

What Klay said about staying doesn't matter, basically everyone says that. One person that doesn't is Green. Contrary to your post, he was quoted saying he took a paycut when Durant came to town and that he expects to get paid what he's worth for his next contract. 

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5 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Not entirely true. The second Durant landed in Golden State he said he wanted to lead the league in rebounds. That's why the whole "he has better teammates, he'll be better in fantasy because of efficiency" argument rarely works out and Durant is a prime exception and prime player to have on your team (when playing). 

 

If Durant did say that, you think he meant that literally? You have to read between the lines, obviously what he meant was figuring out how to help his team more (rebounds blocks) because he doesn't need to score as much. If you think Durant said that he wants to lead the league in rebounds and league the team in blocks because he was thinking about individual glory, then wow.

 

Going back to the topic, Draymond will remain good, but once Cousins is back and healthy, there is no way Draymond will keep the same numbers. Cousins is beast in rebounds, the number of rebounding chances will not increase with or without Cousins, so meaning he will cut into the rebounds of Draymond and Durant. The number of assists also won't change that much because the number of possessions will more or less be the same, and Cousins will also eat into the assists numbers of Draymond and Curry.

 

It is gonna be a headache to own GSW players this year

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As a Draymond owner in a keeper league, I'm curious, when do you guys expect Cousins to come back and start impacting his numbers?

I can see two different perspectives if I'm Golden State. One would be keeping him out the majority of the season (say 72-75 games) to let him rehab, and then bringing him to game shape with the last handful of games before playoffs. It's not like they need him to win sooner than that. The other perspective would be bringing him back earlier to get him into better game shape/have more time getting used to the way the team plays. I just don't know when "earlier" would be, and it's giving me a bit of trouble with estimating when Green's production will start to decline. 

Can anyone offer some insight into this? Or maybe just help to paint a consensus as to how many games you expect Cousins to miss and why?

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I expect cousins to miss half of the season and then sit out of back to backs after that.  If I had to set the over under of games played it would be around 35.

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Jordan Bell is more of a worry than a hobbled Cousins, 7ft heavy guy recovering quickly or completely from an achilles isn't a likely scenario. 

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5 hours ago, a-rob said:

 

If Durant did say that, you think he meant that literally? You have to read between the lines, obviously what he meant was figuring out how to help his team more (rebounds blocks) because he doesn't need to score as much. If you think Durant said that he wants to lead the league in rebounds and league the team in blocks because he was thinking about individual glory, then wow.

 

Going back to the topic, Draymond will remain good, but once Cousins is back and healthy, there is no way Draymond will keep the same numbers. Cousins is beast in rebounds, the number of rebounding chances will not increase with or without Cousins, so meaning he will cut into the rebounds of Draymond and Durant. The number of assists also won't change that much because the number of possessions will more or less be the same, and Cousins will also eat into the assists numbers of Draymond and Curry.

 

It is gonna be a headache to own GSW players this year

What are you arguing about? Durant literally said he was going to pursue an individual accolade. 

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I have estimated as low as 6 rbs 6 ast with other stats largely unchanged.  I feel the likelihood is actually decent that he will end up better than that...6 rbs especially seems very conservative.   

 

At this low estimate I would still happily take him in the 4th round if available because the stocks are too elite.  

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25 minutes ago, Airball B said:

I have estimated as low as 6 rbs 6 ast with other stats largely unchanged.  I feel the likelihood is actually decent that he will end up better than that...6 rbs especially seems very conservative.   

 

At this low estimate I would still happily take him in the 4th round if available because the stocks are too elite.  

 

RELAX MAN ... Cuz not gonna play unitl... who knows ... ? March... April ? 

Nothing's gonna change... Day Day will get his 10-7-7 w elite stocks... witch is in my book 4th round value.. 

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