FFCollusion

2018 Overall Rankings

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First off, thanks, that's food for thought. Some quick remarks:

 

34 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't foresee any issues with the TE ranks.  I'm sure some will take issue with ranking him 12th overall, but last year, in only 13 games he scored 225 points, 17.3 PPG. 

I'm sure this refers to Gronk. In your image I don't see this particular ranking though, only the ranking per position; is that on purpose?

 

I don't agree on your QBs (so that makes for interesting reading and further study for me); I agree a lot on the WRs and RBs. Not much argument otherwise, good write up and thanks!

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I think of any player on this list, an explanation is needed on Kamara, as your ranking is noticeably lower vs. most rankers, especially given PPR.

 

Edited by bgar15
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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm sure this refers to Gronk. In your image I don't see this particular ranking though, only the ranking per position; is that on purpose?

 

The left hand column is his overall, non-positional ranking. Gronk is 12 there.

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15 minutes ago, JJRules said:

 

The left hand column is his overall, non-positional ranking. Gronk is 12 there.

300px-Paris_Tuileries_Garden_Facepalm_st

I'm stupid. Thanks.

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After last year, I think Hopkins needs to be considered in the same tier as Brown, and definitely above OBJ. 

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1 minute ago, Hero202 said:

After last year, I think Hopkins needs to be considered in the same tier as Brown, and definitely above OBJ. 

Why above OBJ?

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2 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

Why above OBJ?

 

to me this one is just personal preference as I could see it going either way. Nuk's 2017 is in line with OBJ's 2014-2016...(I think)

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Good stuff @FFCollusion Really appreciate the insight. Top notch stuff.  I'll add some commentary below.

 

33 minutes ago, Hero202 said:

After last year, I think Hopkins needs to be considered in the same tier as Brown, and definitely above OBJ. 

Now that I am seeing him in camp, I believe he deserves to be in the same tier as Hopkins. He looks all the way back. I can see where owners can be hesitant. There's really no right or wrong answer here expect for the fact that I think Brown does deserve his own tier. It's not that big of a drop off that you would see in lower rankings or in other positional rankings.

 

18 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Tonight we have the first official NFL kickoff.  I try to have a rough rankings heading into preseason and then make major adjustments over the next 3 weeks, in preparation for my money drafts.

Feel free to share yours, argue mine, call me names, whatever.  Anyone who can make a strong case for a player being too high or too low, will be taken into serious consideration and likely have direct impact on my rankings, if you can provide a compelling argument.

 

*Yahoo Default Scoring with 1PPR*

 

Ho_FGame.png

 

I'm happy to see that you decided to buck the trend and move Kamara down. His ADP is currently at 5 and that scares the hell out of me. Although not realistic, I also like him for a 2nd round grade. I'm concerned with him maintaining that efficiency rate per touch from 2017. However, I would put him above McCoy, Green and Gronk. More in the 13-14 range. If he drops to 17, that is an absolute steal.

 

Dalvin Cook is an absolute beast and I would have him firmly in the late first round or at the turn for the 12th pick. Getting Cook at 18 is not realistic and would be an a steal.

 

Melvin Gordon at 24? Way too low. After your big boys are off the board, I like him which is mid-late first round. The sub 4.0 ypc is concerning but he should come close to 300 carries again and add 60+ receptions easily especially with no reliable TE. Virgil Green isn't scaring anyone in the short to intermediate range. For me, Gordon would move all the way up to right below Barkley on your list.

 

McKinnon behind Ingram and Ajayi? I am not sold on Ajayi one bit and would not be surprised if he is not the starter by mid season. Yes, you can say the same for McKinnon with Breida and a returning Joe Williams, but both side by side, McKinnon's upside trumps Ajayi.

 

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I have to ask about Marqise Lee over Marvin Jones (and others) and Ridley/Moore/etc over Shepard. 

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I think Cousins is way too high. I like Cousins fine. He's put up numbers in the past, and I think he can be just as good this season and not meet those numbers. I see Minny winning a lot of games and doing a lot of running in the 2nd half of those games.

I'd easily take Luck over him.
But still, nice work. Thanks for sharing.

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Before I begin, just want to say thank you for the solid input and genuine questions thus far.

 

10 hours ago, bgar15 said:

I think of any player on this list, an explanation is needed on Kamara, as your ranking is noticeably lower vs. most rankers, especially given PPR.

 

Well, I guess I should admit, I don't really look any other rankers, so I didn't even consider where anyone else had him versus where I put him.  I do use FFC ADP often though, but those are set by real people, which is what I value most, not just 1 ranker or site/team.  Looking now, ESPN has Kamara as RB6 and 7th overall.  So... yeah I guess I'm about a full round lower.

I assume the first 4 ahead of him are unanimous.  Bell, DJ, Gurley and Zeke in whatever order you prefer.

From there, I think the next group of RBs can be jumbled.  I like Fournette because I think his only downside is potential injuries.  Valid concern, but of the backs we're about to discuss, it's the least variable concern for me.  Either he gets hurt or doesn't.  It's an injury plagued position, with a LOT of hits, anyone of these guys can go down at any time.  Fastest player with the ball in his hands, only 4 RBs had a tougher defender in the box rating. 

Hunt for me... looked incredible last year, until the game plan changed.  I believe his lull in the middle of the season was on the coaches, not him.  New QB, added Sammy, Hill, Kelce, it's a good offense, and Hunt touched the ball ~120 more times than Kamara last year.  There's value in that.

Barkley is a lot of hype.  I need to see him on the field, but of what I know thus far, he's a 300 touch freak of nature.  We'll see.

McCoy is a valid argument I understand and if BUF as a team looks incompetent in preseason, then he's going to fall quite a bit.  I'm not as scared as the rest of the world it seems that the sky is falling.  I've seen him succeed in way too many different teams/schemes/etc to worry that a bad team is going to stop him from RB1 numbers.

 

From that point, the main issue seems to be how many WRs and Gronk I put ahead of him.  This is a fair complaint.  I could move him up ahead of McCoy and K.Allen without hesitation, but when we look at Gronk, Green, Julio, and Thomas... now you're asking me to pass on perennial elite players who have given me zero reason to doubt them.  Well... Green doesn't make me as confident as he once did, I'll admit.

 

Now all you have to do, is decide, do you think Brees only throws 23 TDs next year?  He's averaged 38 in the 6 years prior.  34 over the prior 3.  To me, this means the run game might potentially lose around 10 TDs next year.  Kamara and Ingram combined for 20 of the rushing TDs, so unless Brees is throwing it to these guys, I see a regression coming.  Speaking of regressions, 6.1 Yards Per Carry.  Probably not happening again.  Let's be generous, we'll give him 5.  With that, he needs to make up 25 carries next year, very possible, especially given Ingram's 4 week suspension.  10 yards per reception?  I'll take the under.  I'm definitely guilty of placing (arguably too much) value on track record.  Kamara is a 1 year wonder as of today.  I believe the sophomore slump is more realistic than people give credit.  I believe that defenses learn a lot about how to play against players with more game tape.  Ultimately he and McCaffrey strike me as very similar in USAGE and PLAYSTYLE within how their OFFENSES used them last year.  McCaffrey had a great season, but without the insane YPC and TDs, or with an increased workload, it's easy (maybe lazy) to just say, I don't see his role changing a lot, and I don't want to bet he can repeat last years efficiency.

 

2 hours ago, Hero202 said:

After last year, I think Hopkins needs to be considered in the same tier as Brown, and definitely above OBJ. 

When AB has a year like Hopkins did in 2016, then they can be in the same tier.  Until then, AB has been rock solid, year in and year out, and is returning to essentially the same exact situation, with the exception of Todd Haley.  First and foremost, it's important to note that AB had just as many points as Hopkins alst year, but played 1 less game.  AB averaged 1.2 points more per game than him, despite having 4 less touchdowns.  Less targets, but more catches, a bunch more yards, and again... all while playing 1 less game.  Hopkins repeating 13 TDs isn't the most likely outcome, and those TDs are the only thing that even got him close to AB's tier in the first place, and that's just LAST YEAR.  Let's not forget that AB has scored 70 more points (2PPG) 2 out of the last 4 years, whereas Hopkins has yet to show that type of upside.  To me, that's why no one belongs in AB's tier.  That's before discussing the potential concerns of a QB who only has 7 starts (no matter how good they looked last year), what a full year of Fuller might look like, what having JJ Watt back on the defense means for total attempts, and what could potentially happen if Miller can be better than pedestrian.  There's a lot of 'tiny' things that could all slightly alter Hopkins output this year, and none of them have anything to do with how talented he his.  Just all of the moving pieces in an NFL offense coming together, to lead to a season where his targets dip by 16~32, TDs did by 3-5, and suddenly he drops from Top3, to low end of top 12.  It doesn't take much.  I'll take the under on 13 TDs and I'll take the under on 174 receptions.

 

I understand everyone is excited about D.Watson, but don't let that distract you from the fact that Hopkins actually averaged 1.5 less targets and 10 less yards per game with Watson, than he did with Savage.  It's small, but at years end we're talking 24 less targets and 160 less yards.  Combined with a slight TD regression, and that's why I have Hopkins a tier lower, and why I have OBJ ahead of him as well, but I have no issue with anyone who wants to take Hop over OBJ.  AB is still the undisputed #1 until proven otherwise in my mind.

 

1 hour ago, nonstopfan said:

Good stuff @FFCollusion Really appreciate the insight. Top notch stuff.  I'll add some commentary below.

 

I'm happy to see that you decided to buck the trend and move Kamara down. His ADP is currently at 5 and that scares the hell out of me. Although not realistic, I also like him for a 2nd round grade. I'm concerned with him maintaining that efficiency rate per touch from 2017. However, I would put him above McCoy, Green and Gronk. More in the 13-14 range. If he drops to 17, that is an absolute steal.

 

Dalvin Cook is an absolute beast and I would have him firmly in the late first round or at the turn for the 12th pick. Getting Cook at 18 is not realistic and would be an a steal.

 

Melvin Gordon at 24? Way too low. After your big boys are off the board, I like him which is mid-late first round. The sub 4.0 ypc is concerning but he should come close to 300 carries again and add 60+ receptions easily especially with no reliable TE. Virgil Green isn't scaring anyone in the short to intermediate range. For me, Gordon would move all the way up to right below Barkley on your list.

 

McKinnon behind Ingram and Ajayi? I am not sold on Ajayi one bit and would not be surprised if he is not the starter by mid season. Yes, you can say the same for McKinnon with Breida and a returning Joe Williams, but both side by side, McKinnon's upside trumps Ajayi.

Green has stacking concerns and his production has tapered off for sure.  I'm probably giving his name too much value rather than his stats.  I could easily see Kamara ahead of Green, but I'm really on the fence, and if I'm on the fence, I always side with the safe track record.  The difference between Kamara and Green next year if they both have 'successful' years, likely won't effect your fantasy team.  But if they both have 'bad' seasons... which one do you feel more comfortable with?  I can survive a bad season of AJ Green, and a measly 10th place finish like he just had in 2017, his worst year of his career, I can handle that.  But if Kamara has the second year of T.Rich, Gurley, or any 1 year wonder who came and went after 1 amazing season, that's crippling.  I'm not predicting that happens to Kamara, but the risk of it, is baked into his ranking, and why I'll just take Green.

 

I'm a Gronk fanboi, not a whole lot of analysis needed here.  I've gone to bad for this guy for years now, and he's never let me down.  If he's healthy he's a top 2 TE and a top ~12 player (non-QB) every single time, at a position where you can't find anyone like him.  Today there are 5-8 other potential Kamaras and by the end of the year 2-4 more will pop up from the middle of the rounds.  That's just how fantasy happens every year, RBs emerge every year, and become top 12 guys.  I'm not calling Kamara replaceable, I'm just making it blatantly clear, no one can replace Gronk and the only guy(s) who ever even come close, are drafted 1-2 rounds after him, not from double digit rounds or the WW.  It's a simple bet at the core.  What has a higher chance of happening this year:  You draft Gronk and find the next Kamara, or you draft Kamara and find the next Gronk?  You can answer however you like and should draft accordingly.  There's no definitive answer until the season is over, that's why we play.

 

Cook I really liked coming in, I drafted him last year, and he was a beast, but... 4 games a 1st round pick does not make.  Not in my world.  New QB and a LOT of talent on this team that all deserve the ball.  Either MIN has to be a top scoring offense in the league or every player on this team except Cousins is going to have some ups and downs.  As you can see, I'm high on Cousins for that exact reason.  Interestingly enough, I have Cook ranked pretty close to where the masses have put him it seems among RBs, but I seem to be giving WRs more value overall than the rest of the world.  Given Greens production lately, K.Allens injury history, and McCoys terrible offense, Cook could easily be justified ahead of all 3 without blinking.  Still not putting him ahead of Gronk as per above.

 

I don't like Melvin Gordon.  Didn't like him coming in, didn't like his tape, didn't like his scouting reports, thought he looked like trash in 2015, didn't think he was good in 2016 with less than 4ypc, 2017 he started the season like garbage, under 4ypc again, even with Keenan blowing up.  Just last year he posted games of:

9 for 13

10 for 22

18 for 38

16 for 27

That's a quarter of the NFL season and a third of the fantasy regular season right there.

I understand the points are there, the targets and catches are there, the touches.  I get it.  Only 2 games over 100 yards rushing, and 25% of his fantasy points came from 2 games last year.  He was a monster in weeks 5 and 6 where he got 25% of his points, 25% of his TDs, 20 targets, and 45 carries, against OAK and NYG.

Just a pass all around for me.  Someone else can have him and I'm not afraid to play against him in any given week.

 

McKinnon.  So many chances and he's never done anything with them.  Ingram has finished 12th, 8th and 6th over the last 3 years.  The 4 game suspension means nothing to me at his price, because you don't even have to draft him as a starter.  Even so, a top 12 back for 12 games, is better than 'what if McKinnon maybe does something he's never done before out of the blue and becomes a top 12 back!!'  Give me the sure bet (within what 'sure' can mean in this game) over the guy who might be as good as Ingram was last year, IF everything works out exactly as planned.  Basically, everyone is betting that McKinnon can hopefully be as good as Ingram... why not just take Ingram?  As mentioned, I get the Sparq score, I get Shannahan, I get what Hyde did last year, etc etc.  I totally get it, but I have no desire to take the dice roll of hoping everything falls into place for this guy, when there are players still on the board who have already done it multiple times.  Literally everyone I have ranked ahead of him, sans Barkley and Cook have already proven it.  I don't take unnecessary risks that early, unless you can explain why his upside or likelihood to be #1 overall is any higher than the guys ahead of him based on what we've seen so far?  He has that chance, sure, but so do all these other guys with the added benefit of track records, and less questions around them.

 

Ajayi.  I completely understand everyone's doubt, he has earned that cynicism fair and square.  I'm still a believer this year.  No issue with people who think he was a fluke and want no part of him, and I'm sure many got a bad taste in their mouth last year after essentially a complete waste of a draft pick.  Despite the trade, despite the multiple byes, the missed weeks, learning new playbook, and hardly touching the ball, many don't realize Ajayi was actually 17th in rushing yards last year, and was still on pace to rush for 2 shy of 1,000 yards.

In fact, his first 7 games with Miami he was on pace for 315 carries, for 1063 yards, 45 targets, 32 catches, for another 153 yards.  That would have been the 8th most rushing yards in the league.

Starting at his first game with double digit carries for the Eagles, week 14-SB (6 games) he was on pace for 221 carries, 968 yards, 40 targets, 29 catches, for another 354 yards.  Now Blount is gone and to be fair, let's only use the 6 game stretch we used for Ajayi above, and there's an extra 48 carries and 175 yards up for grabs in the backfield.

 

59 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I have to ask about Marqise Lee over Marvin Jones (and others) and Ridley/Moore/etc over Shepard. 

Mentioned in the OP that the names after the space are just a list of players I haven't gone through yet.  Just all of the #2/#3 WRs on their teams, or rookies that I need to evaluate their situation, roles, floor/upside, usage, etc over the next few weeks.  Lee over Jones is lazy tiering as mentioned in OP as well.  Lee and that tier are all #1 WRs on their teams in questionable situations.  Jones is the #2 on his team, like most of the tier I have him in.  That's just a rough baseline, before evaluating 1A 1B scenarios like the Lions have, Jones will jump up quite a bit in the first adjustment barring any massive lineup changes with Golladay.  I really though Hurns leaving would have a bigger impact on M.Lee, but looking a bit closer at the game logs, and when Hurns missed time last year, that doesn't seem like the case.  Food for thought, weeks 2-14 (Lee went down in 15, and Wk one went 0/0, so I'm admittedly cheating) but in these 12 games, he was on pace for 123 targets, 75 catches, 936 yards.

That would have been the 13th most targets in the league, 11th in receptions, and 20th in yards.  Allen Hurns is now on the Cowboys.

He's currently being drafted as WR50, in the 11th round of 12 team PPR leagues.  He shouldn't be ahead of Jones, but he's an extremely interesting value pick in my opinion.

 

3 hours ago, andypro77 said:

I think Cousins is way too high. I like Cousins fine. He's put up numbers in the past, and I think he can be just as good this season and not meet those numbers.

Cousins was top 5 in 2016 with Garcon, D.Jax, and Crowder.

In 2017 he was top 5 again with Crowder, Grant, and Doctson.

*Oddly enough his 2015 season was better than his 2017 season, but the 'field' was much more competitive, he's essentially been scoring the same for 3 years straight*

 

He now gets Thielan, Diggs, Cook, and Rudolph.  Can't really count Treadwell as a positive yet, but potentially.

Cousins was a top 5 QB 2 years in a row, while only throwing 25 and 27 TDs in those years, which is relatively low, and rather 'meetable' I feel, as is ~4100 yards.  I don't logically expect him to miss either of those targets and I think his upside is considerably higher than those amounts.  He's added at least 4 more rushing TDs with his feet 3 years straight as well, which in Yahoo, really helps.

 

In 2017 for the Vikings Case Keenum in 15 games threw for 22TDs.

Keenum(14.5) and Bradford(1.5)  combined for 3,929 yards and and 26 TDs.  I can't fathom a way for Cousins to not at the very least match those numbers, with a significant higher ceiling, and potential to challenge #1 overall given how much better I believe he is than Keenum.  Given his upside of 4900 yards and the scenario where he throws for 30-32 TDs with 4 from his feet, with 100 rushing yards, we're talking 350 fantasy points before INTs.

 

Ultimately the ranking means nothing.  He's currently going in the 8th round, as the 8th QB overall.  No matter how you slice it, he or Cam will wind up as my QBs, or I'll wait until the 16th round and roll with Tyrod.  As soon as Luck throws 1 nice bomb to Hilton on live TV next week, his ADP will skyrocket, and he won't be on my radar, because these 2 guys will still the best values at the position in my mind.  Luck had 1 great year and 3 years where he's been equal to Cousins.  They're right next to each other and health is a risk with Luck, even if he's 100% right now, it's just 1 extra question mark I don't want to deal with, when their are equal fantasy options at the same price, or in 2 weeks, a lot cheaper.

 

I rank in a vacuum, but I don't draft in one.  I rank Cam as the #2 QB, but I'll never have to draft him as the 2nd QB off the board.  Ranks are used to help identify ADP discrepancies and exploit them to your advantage in attempt to maximize your value on draft day.

 

Realistically, Rankings are just so people can quote you are the end of the year and troll you for your bad calls.

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On 8/2/2018 at 7:44 PM, FFCollusion said:

Tonight we have the first official NFL kickoff.  I try to have a rough rankings heading into preseason and then make major adjustments over the next 3 weeks, in preparation for my money drafts.

Feel free to share yours, argue mine, call me names, whatever.  Anyone who can make a strong case for a player being too high or too low, will be taken into serious consideration and likely have direct impact on my rankings, if you can provide a compelling argument.

 

*Yahoo Default Scoring with 1PPR*

 

Ho_FGame.png

 

In past years I've tried to explain my ranking philosophy, this year I think I found a way to make it visual for people to see.

Take a look at the QB column, I have the first 12 ranked straight up.  From there I've split the remaining QBs into 2 columns, Upside vs Reliability.

There are multiple mentalities on the QB position, mine is fairly straight forward, if I don't have a top 5 QB, then I want 100% upside, 0% floor.  In these scenario's in the past, I've always ranked highly volatile QBs higher than highly reliable QBs. Rivers is a low end QB1 nearly every year, but if I'm waiting on QB, I'm not interested in safe, boring, etc.  Give me the guy with the 10% chance to jump into the top 6 this year out of nowhere.  IF that doesn't work out... I'll go find Rivers production off the waiver wire from Bortles, Carr, Eli, etc.  For me it's simple, if I wait on QB I want a lotto ticket, not a reliable low ceiling producer.  If you are the type of player who prefers the latter option, there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Instead of debating Rivers vs Tyrod in a ceiling/floor discussion I'm just going to split my ranks into a 'ceiling' column, and a 'floor' column, and rank them within their 'classification'.  If you like safer, reliable, and consistent weekly low end production, go down the right column.  If you prefer the risk/reward mentality and want to roll the dice with high variances, go down the left column.  If you disagree with my columns, let me know why, I'm all ears.  A strong argument could be made that Smith, Stafford, and Big Ben should be in the right column rather than separated above it.

 

Since we're talking QBs, I'm likely higher on Cam and Cousins than most.  Cam has had an outlier high and an outlier low in my opinion.  Outside of those 2 years, he's basically a consistent top 4 QB.  The addition of McCaffrey seemed to help a lot last year.  The return of Olsen is welcomed and an argument can be made that Cam has the best WR corps of his career for 2018. (Steve Smith aside)  I would like to hope CJA is an improvement in the run game over J.Stew but I'm not holding my breath.

 

Cousins going to MIN gives him an array of weapons he's never had before between Cook, Rudolph, Diggs, Thielen, and hopefully Treadwell can finally pay dividends on that 1st round investment.

 

In any other year, Rodgers would be in an Elite tier by himself.  But Rodgers has never been Rodgers without Jordy.  We've seen Jordy go down and tank Rodgers' season, we've seen Rodgers go down and tank Jordy's season.  I've been a huge Rodgers supporter in the past, and still think he's the best 'thrower' of the football in the league right now, but the loss of Jordy is simply an unknown that's enough to drop him out of his own tier, but not enough to drop him from the #1 spot.

 

I'm ranking Luck as if he's 100% right now.  I'm ranking Wilson as if Baldwin doesn't miss a game.  Some might say I'm down on Watson, I get it, I won't fight you.  I'm notorious for disregarding statistical outliers and short term success, in favor of track records... but can't deny the upside that exists.  He's my 4th ranked QB, but is a DND because of the reality of how a draft room works.  He'll never be on the board when Cam/Cousins aren't, so he'll never be on my team.  Nature of the beast.

 

I don't foresee any issues with the TE ranks.  I'm sure some will take issue with ranking him 12th overall, but last year, in only 13 games he scored 225 points, 17.3 PPG.  There are only 3 WRs and 8 RBs in the game that scored more than him on a weekly basis.  But there are plenty of breakout WR and RBs every single year.  There are no Gronkowski's to be found in the late rounds or on the WW mid season.  Positional PPG advantages win fantasy matchups.  Just to drive this point home, Gronk scored more points per game last year than Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, at a position where you can NOT find that production anywhere else.  All 3 of these WR's continue to be drafted higher than Gronk though.

 

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen deserves to be higher in his tier, but is automatically put to the bottom of it due to his injury risk.  Just how I do it.

Larry Fitzgerald is a similar outlook, he deserves to be higher, but due to his age, O line, new QB, I just put him at the bottom of it.

I'm ranking Hilton as if Luck is 100% healthy, will adjust accordingly based on preseason and how Luck's arm/body responds.

Cooks... I assume many will disagree with this one.  For 3 years straight he's averaged 120 targets, 76 receptions, 1100 yards, and 8 TDs, despite being traded, multiple offenses, 2 (albeit great) QBs.  I didn't buy it last year when people thought the sky was falling because of the trade, and I don't buy it this year.  I don't think he has the upside he had previously, and I understand that Kupp has a cult following, but I think Cooks should easily lead the WRs of this team, and see no reason he shouldn't continue to produce, unless Goff takes a step backwards, which is very possible.

Josh Gordon.  Should be #1 overall, must be a typo.

Thielen and Hill.  I don't feel comfortable with either of these WRs but their production can't be denied.  I have Diggs too low, Cousins spreads it around so much I'm not convinced he can make a single guy top 12.

I'm ranking Baldwin as if he's 100% healthy.  Everyone loves his year end fantasy totals.  I despise his week to week roller coaster rides, that's just personal preference and for each individual to decide what type of week to week volatility they are willing to endure from their 2nd/3rd round pick.

Adams.  I just don't see what everyone else sees.  This started in 2015 when Jordy went down in preseason.  Adams ADP jumped into the 3rd/4th round if I recall, and I thought people were crazy.  You don't just replace Jordy Nelson and say 'good enough'.  He sucked that year.  2016 he 75/997.  Not impressive, but when you score 12 TDs it vaults you into rare territory.  2017 he goes 74/885.  Even worse, but again... double digit TDs.  I think he has the situation to be a top 12 WR again, but I do not chase TDs, and I don't draft a WR 7th among his position who can't support my team on receptions/yards, because if the TDs don't come, you're SOL.  There are still REALLY good WRs still available in the 2nd round, why take this risk.  Especially when the best RZ threat in the league in Jimmy Graham is now a Packer.  Part of this falls back on the concern with Rodgers and the Packers as a whole without Jordy.  What happens when Adams see's better coverage, still no run game.  Just too many potential outcomes for this kid to invest so much.  Top 12 is very possible but if he goes 75/900/6 it shouldn't shock anyone given his production so far, and would put him at risk of falling out of the top 24 WRs for last year, and those who know the bigger picture know that 2017 and 2016 were already atrocious WR years in the grand scheme, 12.5 PPG is out of the top 30 on a weekly basis last year, would make him a WR4 in other years.  7th WR off the board, 19th overall... not a chance.

The next tier is assumed #1 WRs of their own teams, in questionable situations, ranked by perceived upside.

The following tier is #2 WRs on their own teams that have been reliable producers, but are unlikely to become the #1 WR of their own team.  Garcon and KB are assumed #1s but in really questionable places given their teams.  I'm too low on Marvin Jones probably.

Beyond that it's pretty straight forward.  Once the tiers stop they aren't in a specific order yet, I just haven't made it that far, or need to see more before I can accurately value them.

I think Amendola is significantly underrated taking over the Slot role for Miami that Landry just produced the #4 WR season from.

I'm hoping for a T.Pryor comeback.  Nice lotto ticket in my opinion.

Need to delete J.Matthews.

 

Running Backs

L.Bell has done nothing to lose the #1 spot in my opinion.  Recency bias has pushed Gurley too high, slightly bloated by TDs.  Bell gets more carries, more targets, and more catches, I value those more when predicting the future than TDs, 60 touches is a massive difference, holdout and contract mean nothing to me.  Gurley is a beast but I'm not erasing that 1 down year, even if it wasn't his fault.  DJ and Bell when on the field have produced at elite levels every time.  DJ has never finished a full season as a starter.

I can't rank Zeke higher than these 3 in PPR league, he just doesn't get used the same way (yet).

Fournette at 5 is probably not the popular thing to do, but it's what makes the most sense to me.  Injuries are a concern here as well.

Barkley... I need to see him take a snap, we'll go from there.

I don't think McCoy misses any time from the off field allegations.  Bad team, Bad QB, bad WRs... who cares, McCoy has been an elite mainstay for a decade now.  I understand wanting to get off the train a year early rather than a year late, but I think we've got another year minimum.

I don't like Melvin Gordon.  I just don't think he's as good as people think, but the volume is there, and he had a great season once he finally got going last year.

Mark Ingram should be the same guy he's been for the last couple years.  I went over the NO backfield at length last year with how many touches their are to go around.  Kamara would wildly productive last year, and it didn't stop Ingram from being a top 6 back in the league.  Bell got suspended 2 weeks and fell to the late 1st.  Zeke got suspended 6 weeks and fell to the late 2nd.  Ingram gets suspended 4 weeks and he's dropped all the way to the 5th???  By then he'll be my 3rd or 4th RB anyways, and the suspension doesn't even matter.  Late season matters more than the early season.

Everyone loves McKinnon, but I'm skeptical after seeing him fail so many times before.   Understand the role, the opportunity, the spark score, and the effect of Shanny, but...  Someone else can take that risk.

I'm an Ajayi believer.  Last years trade debacle negates the entire season for me.  Giving him another shot.

Lamar Miller is an enigma.  I can't even.

Howard is criminally low I suppose, but he reminds me of Alfred Morris.  He doesn't catch the ball, lots of talk about not fitting into the new scheme, Cohen this.  I'll pass but won't argue with anyone who wants to take him way earlier, I understand it.

Mixon.  Another player who everyone in the world but me seems to love.  I've watched tape to try and see if I'm missing something, maybe my scouting sucks, but I don't see anything special.  Improved down the stretch, but Gio is still there, and the Bengals haven't ridden a single RB in quite some time.  Most likely to make me look dumb at seasons end.

I was high on Hyde last year, ranking him top 10 at this exact time last season.  Was laughed at, dismissed, ignored, etc.  Top 10 RB.  yes the injury risk is real.  Yes the Browns suck, but... know who sucked more than the Browns last year?  The 9ers, well until Jimmy G showed up at least.  Although Jimmy G had no effect on Hyde's production.  Duke will dominate 3rd down work, but I'm not convinced Chubb has any notable effect until he proves otherwise.  Hyde won't get the targets/catches he got last year, but on paper the Browns team is really good, and if Hyde can stay on the field, I think he can easily be an RB2, currently going in the 8th round.

Henry vs Dion.  There's already too many pages on this.  Long story short, it's a committee, and I believe they cannibalize each other.

This is where the split happens, and in my big board we're looking at the start of round 5.  Left side is the rookies, of which 2-3 will undoubtedly break out this year and become top 12-20 guys.  Rounds 4-7 are the perfect time to take your pick if you want to take your shot.  If you went WR/TE/QB early and need a reliable RB you cna count on to just get points every week, perhaps look at the right column.  Many of the rookies have undefined roles as of today, I've listed them in the order I felt was clearest path to touches, for the time being.  PreSeason will drastically alter this section of my rankings.

Crow is way too underrated in my opinion.

Lynch was a bit rusty last year, but his tape looks good, some advanced metrics he fared pretty well in, and the Raiders can't possibly be that terrible again.  I don't know what's going on with Doug Martin, but Lynch could surprise some people this year if the offense doesn't implode again.

Below that is a tier of 'role' players that I haven't quite sorted out yet into the overall ranks.  Duke is too low.

Dixon is the only BAL RB I'm interested in.  Might not win the job till mid season, might not ever win the job, but I liked his tape a lot.

Then we get into CoP backs, JAGs who would fall into more touches in the event of an injury, some pure handcuffs who have zero value until an injury, and the pure upside out of nowhere guys like Hines, Ballage.  Looks like I forgot Gore.  2 of these 3 names are a good segway into why I'm not high on Drake.

 

That should cover it for now.  Again, this in an extremely rough draft, preseason will drastically alter this list over the next 3 weeks.  The overall list is kind of just cut/pasted tiers to give myself an idea, which will also be updated as well with preseason, more research, TC reports, mock drafts, etc etc.

 

Image result for and here we go

Why so high on Hunt? He’s one of my least favorite RBs from the top 10. You say the game plan changed but his coach has a reputation for making fantasy miserable for owners of players on the team.

Edited by Gohawks

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Why so high on Hunt? He’s one of my least favorite RBs from the top 10. You say the game plan changed but his coach has a reputation for making fantasy miserable for owners of players on the team.

Name a time when you thought to yourself "Man, I really don't want Andy Reid's RB1"??

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21 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Name a time when you thought to yourself "Man, I really don't want Andy Reid's RB1"??

With the help of https://www.pro-football-reference.com/:

 

 

Games

Total Yds

 

 

Rk

 

Tm

Age

Pos

G

Touch

APYd

RRTD

2017

6

Kareem Hunt*

KAN

22

RB

16

325

1782

11

2016

18

Spencer Ware

KAN

25

RB

14

247

1368

5

2015

27

Charcandrick West

KAN

24

RB

15

180

848

5

2014

16

Jamaal Charles*

KAN

28

RB

15

246

1324

14

2013

10

Jamaal Charles*+

KAN

27

RB

15

329

1980

19

2012

23

LeSean McCoy

PHI

24

RB

12

254

1213

5

2011

8

LeSean McCoy*+

PHI

23

RB

15

321

1624

20

2010

19

LeSean McCoy

PHI

22

RB

15

285

1672

9

2009

32

LeSean McCoy

PHI

21

rb

16

195

945

4

2008

17

Brian Westbrook

PHI

29

RB

14

287

1337

14

 

"Really don't want" is strong, but 2015 and 2009 were not great. On average it's still 1400 yd and 10.6 TD. I'll take that. 

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2016 deja vu, waiting till teen rounds to snag Matt Ryan again and enjoy the ride, poised for a similar bounceback from 2015 going into 2nd year with new OC and getting a legit new weapon.

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Final Update for me for 2018 draft season:

Just a reminder, I don't really promote the use of rankings as draft sheets.  It's my personal opinion that rankings are used to generate an overall value of players and to identify a disparity between your own evaluation and the platform you draft on, and then maximizing the value of your team by exploiting the default rankings to your advantage.  We rank players in a vacuum, but we do not draft in a vacuum.  Every player that's taken off the board, alters the value of those remaining on the board.  Every player you've already drafted, alters the worth of the types of players on the board relative to your team needs.  You look at the RB class differently depending on if you're taking your first RB off the board that you know you need to rely on week 1 versus if you're drafting your 4th RB off the board, where maybe they go into the flex, maybe they ride the bench while you 'wait and see'.

In the first scenario, you're likely leaning towards reliable production, with a higher floor, lower ceiling that you can depend on, until the season settles in after a few weeks.  Maybe you take Lynch or Crow, because they might not be exciting, but you know they're gunna touch the ball day 1 and have potential to score every week.  Whereas in the second scenario, you don't have to depend on this RB to be a starter right away, maybe you want some upside and you sit on Kerryon Johnson or Sony Michel, because a mid-low RB2 does nothing for your team, but the possibility of a breakout top 12 RB could put you over the top.  That is something no ranking sheet in the world can take into account for you after your draft has started.

 

Tl;dr

A draft evolves with every pick; rankings don't.  Use your ranks to create a plan/strategy on how to manipulate ADPs to your advantage, not as a list of names to blindly follow in the draft room.

 

Final_Ranks.png

 

@crizza0309 @Proto24 @Members_Only_76 @TrueToTheBlue

Edited by FFCollusion
  • Like 3

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Melvin Gordon, the guy who's finished RB7 and RB5 in the last two years, and is coming  into the season in the best spot of his young career to be a fantasy superstar, ranked at 22. Makes sense.

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21 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Final Update for me for 2018 draft season:

Just a reminder, I don't really promote the use of rankings as draft sheets.  It's my personal opinion that rankings are used to generate an overall value of players and to identify a disparity between your own evaluation and the platform you draft on, and then maximizing the value of your team by exploiting the default rankings to your advantage.  We rank players in a vacuum, but we do not draft in a vacuum.  Every player that's taken off the board, alters the value of those remaining on the board.  Every player you've already drafted, alters the worth of the types of players on the board relative to your team needs.  You look at the RB class differently depending on if you're taking your first RB off the board that you know you need to rely on week 1 versus if you're drafting your 4th RB off the board, where maybe they go into the flex, maybe they ride the bench while you 'wait and see'.

In the first scenario, you're likely leaning towards reliable production, with a higher floor, lower ceiling that you can depend on, until the season settles in after a few weeks.  Maybe you take Lynch or Crow, because they might not be exciting, but you know they're gunna touch the ball day 1 and have potential to score every week.  Whereas in the second scenario, you don't have to depend on this RB to be a starter right away, maybe you want some upside and you sit on Kerryon Johnson or Sony Michel, because a mid-low RB2 does nothing for your team, but the possibility of a breakout top 12 RB could put you over the top.  That is something no ranking sheet in the world can take into account for you after your draft has started.

 

Tl;dr

A draft evolves with every pick; rankings don't.  Use your ranks to create a plan/strategy on how to manipulate ADPs to your advantage, not as a list of names to blindly follow in the draft room.

 

Final_Ranks.png

 

@crizza0309 @Proto24 @Members_Only_76 @TrueToTheBlue

Few questions/statements.

 

1. Ajayi is ranked 26. Do you not feel the depth at the position on the team is a threat?

2. Howard is 33. His near bellcow status espeically with rumors of 3rd down work isn't enough to justify a higher ADP?

3. Odell at 6? Why? It's not that I particularly disagree just curious for the reasoning

4. I hope you forgot to rework the Bucs backfield...

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