dboong

2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

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30 minutes ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Conleys foot/achillies history + the fact that MEM looks lottery bound once again puts him on my DND this year

Yeah that's not looking too good . . .

 

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10 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

That’s a weak comparison because all the analysts I knew were saying dipo had elite potential but Westbrook was holding him back.  I know people on this very forum who were buying all the stock they could of him.  Gallagher said he would be top 20.  His breakout year was not a surprise at all.  

 

And yes you do have an idea of a player’s value at 22.  There are surprises sometimes but most of the time the potential is obvious by 22.  I mean I played ball and I think it was pretty clear by 22 I wasn’t going any further.  Turner hasn’t shown any signs of being a primary scorer or great rebounder.  I think he will be a good player based solely on blocks and being a big who hits FT%.   But this argument that he has unlimited upside bc he’s only 22 could apply to any 22 your old by your logic.

Well I'm telling you most people in here were saying he sucked and it was ridiculous to suggest he could be top 30, all because of one season. Imagine that, a guy who had played really well prior to that couldn't possibly play well again given new circumstances? Those basic elements are all here with this one. It doesn't need to be a perfect example, it has all the important ingredients.

 

Most players don't hit their prime until around 26 years old and based on how I understand his situation, last year wasn't problematic because of talent. Just looking at it simply, if that were the case he wouldn't have killed it at age 21. 

Edited by Spyplane

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7 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Conleys foot/achillies history + the fact that MEM looks lottery bound once again puts him on my DND this year

I don't know I feel like everyone is too negative on him this year. I think I will select him at the right price knowing the risks.

 

Just in the back of my mind that they didn't trade Gasol last year so they will be trying to compete this year at the very least. Will try to sell him if Grizz does well out of the gates

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5 hours ago, DiAngelo said:

Thoughs on Jeremy Lin ? He might make a top 100 season which makes him a sleeper i guess

 

Is that you DLo?  Lin is not on your team anymore, you don't have to worry about him.  Focus on Dinwiddie.

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5 hours ago, rob0403 said:

I don't know I feel like everyone is too negative on him this year. I think I will select him at the right price knowing the risks.

 

Just in the back of my mind that they didn't trade Gasol last year so they will be trying to compete this year at the very least. Will try to sell him if Grizz does well out of the gates

 

Wouldnt blame you for taking him at the right price.

 

i do think he is essentially untradeable at this point. Still owed alot of money long term and no team would be willing to take that on given his poor health.

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I think Barton won't be a 5th option in Denver, rather guards Murray and Harris will loose some touches. Barton is also a better facilitator than the two. Barton gets no love because some view him as a threat to individual players rather than helping the team win. 

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5 hours ago, juni said:

I think Barton won't be a 5th option in Denver, rather guards Murray and Harris will loose some touches. Barton is also a better facilitator than the two. Barton gets no love because some view him as a threat to individual players rather than helping the team win. 

Well it's true - Barton cares about getting his first and foremost. And only a coach like Mike Malone would allow Barton to get more touches than Gary and Murray. 

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What are some thoughts on Willy hernangomez ? Showed a bit again in the summer league and clearly has potential 

 

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11 minutes ago, dboong said:

What are some thoughts on Willy hernangomez ? Showed a bit again in the summer league and clearly has potential 

 

 

Worth a last round flyer in case he gets the bulk of the minutes. He can be really good in even 26 minutes a night. 

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1 hour ago, young_styler said:

 

Worth a last round flyer in case he gets the bulk of the minutes. He can be really good in even 26 minutes a night. 

I had high hopes for him this year but didn't get the chance.. and agree. He doesn't need massive minutes to be relevant. 

 

Is the only hurdle Cody zeller ? If so. Surely he can jump him soon as enough 

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There's also Dr. Oquinn Medicine Woman to potentially steal minutes from Turner.  It's just more quality depth...

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On 8/7/2018 at 10:00 PM, hipriest69 said:

I'm probably avoiding all injury prone players.  ALL of them.  

 

Gallinari is undraftable.  if you're thinking about drafting him, I implore you to look at the thread for last year. Griffin looks ugly for where he is being drafted too.

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23 hours ago, dboong said:

What are some thoughts on Willy hernangomez ? Showed a bit again in the summer league and clearly has potential 

 

Feels like a timeshare arrangement, I’ll be avoiding. 

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1 hour ago, kmac771 said:

What about Elfrid Payton?

I like him possibly taking over Rondo's role on this team but at any time they could shift Holiday back to PG and play Ian Clark some at the 2. The Pelicans also like Frank Jackson and may be ready to give him a bigger role this year assuming he's healthy. 

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1 hour ago, kmac771 said:

What about Elfrid Payton?

The problem is not only role but also his game isn’t too fantasy friendly.  He can get 7 apg/1.7 spg with 5 rpg.  But his efficiency is weak across the board, he doesn’t score a lot, and doesn’t hit threes.  That puts him ahead the median in two or three cats and below the median in the rest.  He’s a little better in punt FT% teams and that’s typically where he’s drafted but the problem is he doesn’t help you in points or threes which is what you need in that build.  He can crack the top 100 in a starting role but I don’t think he’ll ever be top 50.  As he’s often drafted around 75-80 I don’t see how he can be a sleeper because that’s probably where he’ll finish. 

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9 hours ago, bkw77 said:

Feels like a timeshare arrangement, I’ll be avoiding. 

He couldn't beat out O'Quinn even with his boy Porzingis lobbying for him. That tells me all I need to know. If he's better than his competition then its probably not by much and so he's not going to get the kind of minutes needed to make a big splash. He's an end round flier in my books.

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2 hours ago, Spyplane said:

He couldn't beat out O'Quinn even with his boy Porzingis lobbying for him. That tells me all I need to know. If he's better than his competition then its probably not by much and so he's not going to get the kind of minutes needed to make a big splash. He's an end round flier in my books.

O'quinn is pretty good though...

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I’m not sure this counts but some of the punt FT% bigs are seemingly falling under the radar. I know whiteside is in a bad situation with a team that doesn’t appreciate him and no one else seems to either.  But this is a guy who can easily go 12/12 with 2 blocks and without destroying your FT entirely.  His skill set isn’t too far behind Stifle who is going in the early second.  Yet Whiteside is falling to $15-20 in a lot of auctions and 60-70 in drafts.  At that price it’s an easy roll of the dice for me.  The same with DJ.  I think he’s a lock to produce top 20 value in punt builds.  His blocks are declining with age but his negative FT impact both % and volume are improving.  It wasn’t too long ago that he was drafted in the top 50 yet it seems as if he’s dipped a few rounds without justification.  I think Drummond is going to be a superstar and he’s still being dragged down to the late second.  He could see 16 ppg/16 rpg/3 apg/1.8 bpg/1.2 spg/1 3pg which puts him at or ahead of the median in nearly every statistical category.  I know people are underdrafting him due to negative FT% impact but when guys like Westbrook are drafted in the first round when they negatively impact two efficiency categories that’s hypocritical imo.  Aside from points I think Drummond will be one of the best players across the other five counting categories.

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14 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m not sure this counts but some of the punt FT% bigs are seemingly falling under the radar. I know whiteside is in a bad situation with a team that doesn’t appreciate him and no one else seems to either.  But this is a guy who can easily go 12/12 with 2 blocks and without destroying your FT entirely.  His skill set isn’t too far behind Stifle who is going in the early second.  Yet Whiteside is falling to $15-20 in a lot of auctions and 60-70 in drafts.  At that price it’s an easy roll of the dice for me.  The same with DJ.  I think he’s a lock to produce top 20 value in punt builds.  His blocks are declining with age but his negative FT impact both % and volume are improving.  It wasn’t too long ago that he was drafted in the top 50 yet it seems as if he’s dipped a few rounds without justification.  I think Drummond is going to be a superstar and he’s still being dragged down to the late second.  He could see 16 ppg/16 rpg/3 apg/1.8 bpg/1.2 spg/1 3pg which puts him at or ahead of the median in nearly every statistical category.  I know people are underdrafting him due to negative FT% impact but when guys like Westbrook are drafted in the first round when they negatively impact two efficiency categories that’s hypocritical imo.  Aside from points I think Drummond will be one of the best players across the other five counting categories.

 

What are your thoughts on Simmons?  I suppose Drummond only hurts you in one cat (FT), while Simmons hurts you in 3 (FT, 3, TO), but gets you out of position stats (assists from SF/PF slot, blocks, FG, and boards from PG slot....elite assists and FG anchor).  

Edited by hipriest69

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

 

What are your thoughts on Simmons?  I suppose Drummond only hurts you in one cat (FT), while Simmons hurts you in 3 (FT, 3, TO), but gets you out of position stats (assists from SF/PF slot, blocks, FG, and boards from PG slot....elite assists and FG anchor).  

Simmons is almost as good as Drummond on the player rater when you adjust for punt FT% but his production is different.  Simmons has higher ceiling and has the potential for 20 ppg/10 rpg/10 apg with 2 spg/1 bpg.  What I don’t like about Simmons is how hyped he is.  Drummond was hyped a couple years ago and in my opinion lived up the hype.  But we are more or less witnessing his ceiling so people have cooled off on him.  Simmons is the next new toy and all the fantasy gms  are excited about him so they’re overdrafting him imo.  Right now he’s going on the turn of the 1st/2nd in redraft and probably higher in dynasty while Drummond remains a late second round pick.  Drummond has some things in his favor such as center eligibility and that I think rebounds/blocks are more scarce than the assists/steals Simmons provides.  That said Simmons is a unique player.  I suppose people hope Simmons will fix his shot, develop range, and become a better FT shooter.  The goal is to draft Simmons, LeBron, or Giannis in the first and hope to pair them with Drummond in the second.  If you miss on Drummond then there’s always Capela, Whiteside, DJ later.  The pairing I would pray for in dynasty is Giannis in the first and Drummond in the second but that might be wishful thinking. 

Edited by StifleTower2
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