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FouLLine

Deivi Garcia - RHP NYY

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Deivi Garcia is a 19 year old right hander for The Yankees from Bonao, Dominican Republic.  He's only 5'10" but putting up some serious numbers.

 

In his second start at Advanced A he went 7 perfect innings with 12 Ks.  Against Clearwater Threshers who going into the game last night were 2nd in The Florida State League in runs per game.

 

Deivi Garcia's numbers so far this year between A ball and Advanced A read as:

 

51.0 IP, 3.10 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 14.10 K/9 

 

That stat line is about as dominant as it gets.  Can he continue that dominance over a larger sample size?  I'm willing to take a keeper flyer on the chance that he can.

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this kid has some really wicked stuff. cant imagine that he hasnt even scratched the surface yet

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

cant believe i havent heard of him

 

thanks

 

I've been dropping his name in the sleepers thread.

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his curveball is one of the best in the lower minors. happy for him that he is back in tampa but sux for me since i was going to his starts in charleston just to see him pitch. i know his 5'9-5'10 height might scare some but he has a nice easy delivery that doesnt seem to exert much effort on his part. and besides his nasty hi 90 heatre/he has a killa curveball

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I am pretty confident at this point that the Yankees have some weird Latin pitcher factory. Garcia, Roansy Contreras, Luis Medina.... feels like a guy or two every year at this point.

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They Yankees do seem to be pumping out a few of these guys every year but I believe that Yankee prospects still tend to get overhyped much the same that Boston’s do. And I am a Boston fan.

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55 minutes ago, dilly3307 said:

They Yankees do seem to be pumping out a few of these guys every year but I believe that Yankee prospects still tend to get overhyped much the same that Boston’s do. And I am a Boston fan.

I think this used to be the case before the internet. Hard to argue that the recent NYY and BOS prospects haven't lived up to the hype...or were overhyped. If anything...Judge, Betts, Benintendi, etc weren't hyped enough.

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Even if he is overhyped, you can always use it to your advantage, more of a reason to invest in Yankees guys if anything.

 

He has some crazy spin rate on his fastball. @garlando was big on him a while back, I've considered making a thread but glad someone else did.  Like this guy a lot too, biggest concern is probably his size. Things are trending really well right now though.

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Baseball America: (His) bread and butter is a curveball that registers a spin rate of better than 3,000 on StatCast.

 

MLB:com: “Garcia generates tremendous spin on both his fastball and curveball … some of the best spin rates in a Yankees organization that puts a premium on them.”

 

Only 5 MLBers currently have a spin rate on their curveball that exceeds 3000 RPM. 

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Looked good again tonight.  5IP, 0ER, 8Ks lowers his microscopic High A ERA to 1.27 over 5 starts.

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13 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Looked good again tonight.  5IP, 0ER, 8Ks lowers his microscopic High A ERA to 1.27 over 5 starts.

 

Yeah Deivi should start skyrocketing... I remember trying to trade him in a few dynasty drafts before the season started and no one wanted him.  My selling pitch was look at his numbers they were just as good as Gore's numbers but over a much larger sample size.  I now am thinking you have to value him higher than Gore.

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18 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah Deivi should start skyrocketing... I remember trying to trade him in a few dynasty drafts before the season started and no one wanted him.  My selling pitch was look at his numbers they were just as good as Gore's numbers but over a much larger sample size.  I now am thinking you have to value him higher than Gore.

I don't know man.  I don't think even Yankee die hard fans would jump to that type of valuation.  You got to look at more than just numbers.  Will he be jumping up rankings list?  Most definitely.  Is he sniffing the top quarter of any prospect list?  Very unlikely until he moves up to Double A and performs.  His size will always be a knock against him.

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2 hours ago, I like baseball said:

I don't know man.  I don't think even Yankee die hard fans would jump to that type of valuation.  You got to look at more than just numbers.  Will he be jumping up rankings list?  Most definitely.  Is he sniffing the top quarter of any prospect list?  Very unlikely until he moves up to Double A and performs.  His size will always be a knock against him.

 

Okay but why is MacKenzie Gore in the top quarter of the prospect list?

 

You understand comparative analysis I'm sure considering that's essentially most of what all fantasy sports are.

 

Deivi is slightly younger.  Deivi is more dominant at a higher level.  Deivi has over double the innings so far as a pro to weight his success against.  On what level of statistical analysis is Gore superior to Deivi?  Maybe one could argue that he's had less coaching in professional baseball and that I can grant merit to.  But outside of that Deivi is leaps and bounds more advanced of a pitcher right now and it's really not all that close.  Next year Gore could make a big leap sure, but right now I'd rather have Deivi especially if I'm getting him just cause I'm picking him up.

Edited by FouLLine

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2 hours ago, I like baseball said:

I don't know man.  I don't think even Yankee die hard fans would jump to that type of valuation.  You got to look at more than just numbers.  Will he be jumping up rankings list?  Most definitely.  Is he sniffing the top quarter of any prospect list?  Very unlikely until he moves up to Double A and performs.  His size will always be a knock against him.

 

Yes I will say the scouts love Gore.  He's 6'3" lefty clean mechanics.  He was drafted #3 overall out of highschool.  So he's got a ton of pedigree right there.  

 

But at some point producing stats is what it comes down to and regardless of a lot of what the scouts say minor league production over the last few years has been far more important in projecting Major League production than the scouting.... and it hasn't even been close.  This reminds me of the whole Betts is better than Buxton debate I started a few years ago... Yes it was far from the mainstream way of thinking so I got a ton of backlash for saying it but also the evidence was there all along.

 

Not saying Gore isn't good... But Gore is vastly over rated and Deivi is vastly under rated.  Would I understand it if the guy in my dynasty league didn't want to trade me his Gore straight up for my Deivi?  Yes I totally would.  I wouldn't expect anyone to trade me Gore straight up for Deivi because it takes time for the mainstream level of value to adjust.  


But at the same time I wouldn't trade Deivi for Gore because at this point in their careers I've seen enough for me to rank Deivi higher than Gore.  This assessment is certainly not held in concrete and could change within the first month of the season next year.  But right now by all statistical measurements Deivi is far superior to Gore not just better but far superior to Gore.  Plus I'm going to side with The Yankees player development over The Padres.  Granted The Padres have a damn good farm system about to break the major leagues over the next 2 years or so.

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That's very simple.  Projection and pedigree.  

 

You can self proclaim Deivi Garcia is the better of the two prospects and completely disregard the entire industry.  You're looking at fools gold if you are strictly looking at numbers to make your evaluation.  There's not a single publication out there that has Garcia currently as even a top 50 prospect.  Yet, Gore, who's numbers pale in comparison is at the top of the majority of list.  Guys like Garcia has to prove it over and over at every level because of his stature regardless of numbers.  Nothing has changed there... that's just how things have always worked.

 

I'd bet my house that there not a single GM out there, and less than 95% of knowledgeable fantasy players out there that would trade Gore straight up for Garcia.

 

 

And just to be clear, I really really like Garcia.

Edited by I like baseball

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8 minutes ago, I like baseball said:

I'd bet my house that there not a single GM out there, and less than 95% of knowledgeable fantasy players out there that would trade Gore straight up for Garcia.

 

Well obviously.  I already covered this it's called mainstream value.  When I have Byron Buxton and everyone loves him and I want Mookie Betts who no one knows but I've seen has been the superior producer I'm going to try to get more than just Betts for Buxton even though I know Betts is better.  Again there's mainstream value and then there's actually finding value.

 

I've said a bunch of crazy things... All of which at the time would have had heavy under dog odds on happening... When more than 50% of those come to fruition you're doing a good job.  

 

Once you hit A ball the scouting doesn't really matter as much as the numbers.  It really doesn't.  I've watched time and time again (Goldy, Stanton, Betts, Jose Ramirez) flourish in the minors and then develop into superstars at the major league level without ever getting the benefit of the doubt.  Yes Stanton and Betts cracked the top 100 a couple months before they made it to the majors leagues.  But I was the guy hyping them before they were even close to a top 100 list.

 

I'm just saying I'm usually pretty dead on about this kind of stuff.

 

But the other thing that really makes me like Deivi Garcia is I can't help but to think with Pedro mentoring Severino why wouldn't he want to mentor another pitcher from the DR who is even shorter than he was.  Granted who knows if this will happen but if it does I think Deivi could do some really big things.

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I was writing a response to your previous comment as you responded with another.

 

Once you hit A ball the scouting doesn't really matter as much as the numbers.  It really doesn't.

 

Unless you're already a highly regarded prospect, A ball numbers are typically be taken with a grain of salt.    

 

I've said a bunch of crazy things... All of which at the time would have had heavy under dog odds on happening... When more than 50% of those come to fruition you're doing a good job. 

 

It seems you're in the wrong profession then my man.  If you're better than 50%, you should be in someone's front office.

 

 

 

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Both of you make good points.  I think, right now, we have a young kid that is producing.  His off-speed pitches seem to be getting guys to swing and miss albeit against guys that are more prone to swing and miss and being aggressive.  I also think that we need to see what he does against more advanced competition in AA before we will see him moving up prospect lists.  @FouLLine and @garlando have identified a young talent and I am with them that it's better to be early than late on his stock, but how much the stock ultimately goes up is still TBD.

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52 minutes ago, I like baseball said:

It seems you're in the wrong profession then my man.  If you're better than 50%, you should be in someone's front office.

 

Ha yeah I wish... Been trying to run that up to Theo and/or Hahn.

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Good discussion here. Impressive to me that @FouLLine owned Deivi before the season started. @garlando hyped him up a month or two ago and I've been on the train since. I was also on the Mookie Betts train pretty early, I believe partially due to Foul Line.

18 hours ago, I like baseball said:

 

I'd bet my house that there not a single GM out there, and less than 95% of knowledgeable fantasy players out there that would trade Gore straight up for Garcia.

 

 

 

 

You are perhaps correct, ultimately it doesn't matter.  All that matters is who is the better pitcher. I only care about being on the right side, not the majority. I'm sure 95% of people wanted Buxton over Betts 5 years ago. I'm sure 99% people wanted David Freese over Max Muncy 1 year ago. They flip quick.

 

Decent chance injuries determine the winner of that one.  I also don't think even Foul Line is saying he'd trade Gore for Deivi straight up, but he'd take another good piece he likes with Deivi for the perceived value that Gore is a lot higher. I respect that. 

 

If both were on the WW for some reason in a deep league, I'd certainly pick up Gore because he clearly has more trade value at the moment. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Good discussion here. Impressive to me that @FouLLine owned Deivi before the season started. @garlando hyped him up a month or two ago and I've been on the train since. I was also on the Mookie Betts train pretty early, I believe partially due to Foul Line.

 

You are perhaps correct, ultimately it doesn't matter.  All that matters is who is the better pitcher. I only care about being on the right side, not the majority. I'm sure 95% of people wanted Buxton over Betts 5 years ago. I'm sure 99% people wanted David Freese over Max Muncy 1 year ago. They flip quick.

 

Decent chance injuries determine the winner of that one.  I also don't think even Foul Line is saying he'd trade Gore for Deivi straight up, but he'd take another good piece he likes with Deivi for the perceived value that Gore is a lot higher. I respect that. 

 

If both were on the WW for some reason in a deep league, I'd certainly pick up Gore because he clearly has more trade value at the moment. 

 

 

Quote

I wouldn't trade Deivi for Gore

 

It was pretty clear but he already admitted he says a lot of crazy things.

 

 

Now with that said, it's perfectly fine that he's higher on Garcia.  In order to stay ahead of everyone else, it's important to be in on prospect before they start picking up mainstream attention... which Garcia was already getting towards the back end of last season.  Using A ball numbers as the basis of his argument makes for a very weak one.  As a prospect junkie yourself, I'm sure you can't agree with this next statement either.

 

Quote

Once you hit A ball the scouting doesn't really matter as much as the numbers.  It really doesn't.

 

This is an asinine comment especially when you apply it to extremely young pitchers.  Young pitchers are extremely volatile  in general - especially at the lower levels.  If you have semi decent command, you can typically excel with a fastball like his and a solid break pitch.  It's not until you can consistently perform at a higher level where then you can cement your prospect status unless you already had a pedigree going in.  With Garcia's size, he's going to have to continue to produce to be looked as among the games best prospects.  That's just a given and more like a Captain Obvious type assessment.  That's not his fault it's just how things have always been.

 

 

Foul Line is great for this board.  He's brought attention to many obscure prospects here that has benefited me as well.  That doesn't change how flawed the basis for his argument is.

 

Edited by I like baseball
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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Good discussion here. Impressive to me that @FouLLine owned Deivi before the season started. @garlando hyped him up a month or two ago and I've been on the train since. I was also on the Mookie Betts train pretty early, I believe partially due to Foul Line.

 

I'm in a couple pretty deep dynasty leagues where you have to find the guys before they are known commodities.  But Deivi was a beats in 2017 

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2 hours ago, I like baseball said:

 

 

 

 

 

Foul Line is great for this board.  He's brought attention to many obscure prospects here that has benefited me as well.  That doesn't change how flawed the basis for his argument is.

 

 

What I took away from his posts were that he really liked Deivi for a reasons he mentioned and is really high on him.  There's an excellent chance neither of these guys are ever a top 50 SP for fantasy baseball. Actual chance neither ever makes the majors. I have 0 problem with a Gore owner trying to get  Deivi + asset for Gore. If I truly believed Deivi was better than Gore (which I personally do not truly believe yet), I would probably look to trade someone else for Gore.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, I like baseball said:

 

 

 

It was pretty clear but he already admitted he says a lot of crazy things.

 

 

Now with that said, it's perfectly fine that he's higher on Garcia.  In order to stay ahead of everyone else, it's important to be in on prospect before they start picking up mainstream attention... which Garcia was already getting towards the back end of last season.  Using A ball numbers as the basis of his argument makes for a very weak one.  As a prospect junkie yourself, I'm sure you can't agree with this next statement either.

 

 

This is an asinine comment especially when you apply it to extremely young pitchers.  Young pitchers are extremely volatile  in general - especially at the lower levels.  If you have semi decent command, you can typically excel with a fastball like his and a solid break pitch.  It's not until you can consistently perform at a higher level where then you can cement your prospect status unless you already had a pedigree going in.  With Garcia's size, he's going to have to continue to produce to be looked as among the games best prospects.  That's just a given and more like a Captain Obvious type assessment.  That's not his fault it's just how things have always been.

 

 

Foul Line is great for this board.  He's brought attention to many obscure prospects here that has benefited me as well.  That doesn't change how flawed the basis for his argument is.

 

 

A few things.  Deivi has 0 mainstream attention still at this moment... He's not on prospect boards he's not a guy people are really looking at outside of "prospect junkies" such as ourselves. 

 

Where your line of thinking will rarely ever net you value is you're too scared to take a leap.  You and the majority of the rest of the dynasty world is caught up in this scared way of thinking.  "I need to see him do it in AA first".... You do realize that once it's done in AA it generally gets done in the majors within the next year or two... Sometimes within a couple months for the best prospects.  Yeah some prospects struggle for a year or two at the major league level.  But the really good ones, the ones like Deivi Garcia ... They generally just go guns blazing.  I'm more than willing to be early on a guy and watch him potentially struggle in the majors than miss a guy entirely because "I want to see him do it in AA". 

 

You haven't been doing this that long if you haven't noticed the evolution of the minor leagues.  Yeah they are stacked to the gills with talent.  This whole old thinking of "AA is the biggest and hardest jump" that's not exactly true anymore.  Also in terms of a dynasty setting by the time it's done in AA or Advanced A it's too late to get these guys at a value.

 

Again the scouts can love the 6'8" horse but when he's in A ball and Deivi Garcia is flat out pitching better than him I'm going to go with the stats.

 

Here's another name that I would bet you even money that Deivi Garcia will have more value than by the end of 2019, Michel Baez who is pretty much in the top 40 on just about every list.

 

Also for the record I like baseball... You made this an argument, I made a claim and you argued it.   Also even if you like Gore over Deivi (which is perfectly reasonable) I think it's very unreasonable to deny the fact that Deivi may be better than Gore going off of what we've seen so far.

 

Look, at this point in his career Gore hasn't done as much as Deivi Garcia in the minors.  It's that simple.  Deivi has a far bigger sample and it is far more dominant as well.  You can't have a more pure argument.  So I'm not sure how that's obscure and flawed.  But you want to say "Ohh pedigree and scouting reports are more important than minor league production".  That's your opinion, which is fine but understand that you're not arguing with facts you're arguing with feelings.  You feel that Gore is better than Deivi so now you have to prove me wrong with your feelings rather than combating facts with facts.  What fact did your previous response have at all?  It had a hell of a lot of opinion about how you think my argument is flawed and how you think a pitcher will come up to the major leagues.  Which I will tell you Jose Fernandez was 19 and doing similar things... Yes a rarity to make that leap but you never know as Deivi's dominance right now isn't too far from that of Jose's at a similar age.

 

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