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Russell Westbrook 2018-2019 Season Outlook

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RWB...  Where is everyone planning on taking him this year? Is always looked at as a top 5 player even though his rankings have consistently had him at the end of the top 10. Obviously an amazing addition if you put him in the right build but chances are you will be paying a price comparable to the actual Top 5 guys.

 

Saw a huge drop in his ft% that really destroyed his value was credited to the NBA reducing the time you had to shoot. Splits also show as he went on through the year he was never able to really get it going at the line. FT wise should we expect a bounce back in the FT category? At his current % he is really only suited for punt FT builds and at the price you're paying you're better off rolling with Bron.

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I only play Dynasty but for just this season anywhere from 7-10. I expect a big drop off in a couple years with style of play and effort. He should be just fine this being his age 29-30 season. Free throws not a concern with me. Unless he shoots 50%. Which won't happen. 70% won't kill you.....I would not want him in Dynasty at this point in his career.

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Posted (edited)

Was never really a target of mine as he leans toward a 3 cat punt.  In theory that’s fine but I never thought he was worth the price tag others were willing to pay.  Last year I drafted him for the first time and only because he cost $49 and even at that price he was a bust.  I wouldn’t say DND but I don’t think I will ever be willing to pay what he costs.  He is also my least favorite irl player if that matters. 

Edited by StifleTower2
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Posted (edited)

Agreed as I've never targeted throughout all my years of playing fantasy as I'm big on efficiency. Decided to give him a look just based on the fact he never rests, and will play through any injury. $49 sounds like a steal going in to last year when he was only a two cat punt, I saw him going anywhere from 65-70 as a top 3 guy.

 

Low 70s from your PG on 8 attempts will kill you, and if you somehow compensate for his poor FT with good shooting bigs you will be punting other categories.

Edited by FantasyBallFan
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1 minute ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Agreed as I've never targeted throughout all my years of playing fantasy as I'm big on efficiency. Decided to give him a look just based on the fact he never rests, and will play through any injury.

 

Low 70s from your PG on 8 attempts will kill you, and if you somehow compensate for his poor FT with good shooting bigs you will be punting other categories.

The only time I ever saw his owner do well was on a punt FT team with Drummond and DJ the year Westbrook went off.  Out of all my leagues he and John Wall probably have the most negative correlation to success. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dino10k said:

I only play Dynasty but for just this season anywhere from 7-10. I expect a big drop off in a couple years with style of play and effort. He should be just fine this being his age 29-30 season. Free throws not a concern with me. Unless he shoots 50%. Which won't happen. 70% won't kill you.....I would not want him in Dynasty at this point in his career.

70% high volume... will definitely kill ya _a s s_ buddy :rolleyes:

Edited by Stefan
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the one and only time I drafted him was in 2012-13 and actually won the chip. Had WB with The Matrix, AK-47, White Ryno, Wes Matt and I think i snagged Larry Sanders off WW before he got too high and died. What a year that was

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If I had a top 5 pick I’d take him. Doesn’t matter where honestly. Triple doubles are too good to psss up. Especially if you can pair him with another assist machine .

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6 hours ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

the one and only time I drafted him was in 2012-13 and actually won the chip. Had WB with The Matrix, AK-47, White Ryno, Wes Matt and I think i snagged Larry Sanders off WW before he got too high and died. What a year that was

Nice work on beating whoever owned LeBron that year!

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The FT% last year is a clear outlier for Westbrook. I think he rebounds in that category this year. He shoots so many FT's that anything in the 80%'s is a pretty good support for a build. His counting stats are off the charts and he allows for a lot of flexibility with builds. I am not calling FT's a weakness until it becomes a trend. I just can't look at his stats and think that sub 75% FT% is his new norm. That leaves TO's and I don't play 9 cat so others need to jump in with that. Then his weakness is FG% and 3's. Both of those he does just enough to not leave you in a hole, but you need to build consciously to account for those shortcomings. For 8 cat, I don't see him burying you anywhere. 

 

And now his strengths. The guys is an animal and he has a competitiveness that is a huge asset in fantasy even though he can't always harness it in reality. The Thunder will be in a tough competition for playoffs positioning. Westbrook isn't and never will be a dude that rests. That is a massive component these days. We can't control injury, but rest is making an 82 game schedule a 72-76 game schedule for some players before we even get started. In those games he gives you the boards of an elite big man, the assists of the best in the game, and elite points. The steals are upper tier. The 3's are enough. The boards allow you to pair him with a weak rebounding blocker (Myles Turner, KP when healthy) and still have an elite base in boards to build off of. The assists allow you to category crush with another top tier option. Again, if you think he is a tank FT% player then you have to knock him down a bit in roto, but if you think he reverts back to his norm then his %'s are fine. 

 

There is a lot to like and a lot to work with if you take Westbrook in the first round for 8 cat roto. I can see a case for Westbrook at 4 or 5, and any picks closer to 10 he is a no brainer. 9 cat you have a tougher decision on building, but the player rater is over simplified and doesn't take into account team builds. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, thezing1 said:

The FT% last year is a clear outlier for Westbrook. I think he rebounds in that category this year. He shoots so many FT's that anything in the 80%'s is a pretty good support for a build. His counting stats are off the charts and he allows for a lot of flexibility with builds. I am not calling FT's a weakness until it becomes a trend. I just can't look at his stats and think that sub 75% FT% is his new norm. That leaves TO's and I don't play 9 cat so others need to jump in with that. Then his weakness is FG% and 3's. Both of those he does just enough to not leave you in a hole, but you need to build consciously to account for those shortcomings. For 8 cat, I don't see him burying you anywhere. 

 

And now his strengths. The guys is an animal and he has a competitiveness that is a huge asset in fantasy even though he can't always harness it in reality. The Thunder will be in a tough competition for playoffs positioning. Westbrook isn't and never will be a dude that rests. That is a massive component these days. We can't control injury, but rest is making an 82 game schedule a 72-76 game schedule for some players before we even get started. In those games he gives you the boards of an elite big man, the assists of the best in the game, and elite points. The steals are upper tier. The 3's are enough. The boards allow you to pair him with a weak rebounding blocker (Myles Turner, KP when healthy) and still have an elite base in boards to build off of. The assists allow you to category crush with another top tier option. Again, if you think he is a tank FT% player then you have to knock him down a bit in roto, but if you think he reverts back to his norm then his %'s are fine. 

 

There is a lot to like and a lot to work with if you take Westbrook in the first round for 8 cat roto. I can see a case for Westbrook at 4 or 5, and any picks closer to 10 he is a no brainer. 9 cat you have a tougher decision on building, but the player rater is over simplified and doesn't take into account team builds. 

Clearly he’s better in 8 cat H2H than he is in 9 cat roto.  That said, he has one of the worst FG% impacts in the game, and probably forces you to punt that category.  Then imagine also having to punt To if it’s 9 cat and that he hurts you in FT% too.  The FT last year was an outlier but it lasted for the entire season and he’s not a good shooter from distance so it’s not as if it’s a shock.  He will likely bounce back in FT to where he’s not hurting you but he also might not be the anchor that you want out of a guard.  Given that the other guards taken at the same time are huge FT anchors there is an opportunity cost in taking him.  The combo I would look to draft with him at the tail end of the 1st would be Westbrook/Love and punt FG if I was so inclined then come up with blocks later.  But I would only attempt that in 8 cat.  In 9 cat roto (which is my preference) he’s undraftable in the first or even second imo. 

Edited by StifleTower2

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2 hours ago, thezing1 said:

The FT% last year is a clear outlier for Westbrook. I think he rebounds in that category this year. He shoots so many FT's that anything in the 80%'s is a pretty good support for a build. His counting stats are off the charts and he allows for a lot of flexibility with builds. I am not calling FT's a weakness until it becomes a trend. I just can't look at his stats and think that sub 75% FT% is his new norm. That leaves TO's and I don't play 9 cat so others need to jump in with that. Then his weakness is FG% and 3's. Both of those he does just enough to not leave you in a hole, but you need to build consciously to account for those shortcomings. For 8 cat, I don't see him burying you anywhere. 

 

And now his strengths. The guys is an animal and he has a competitiveness that is a huge asset in fantasy even though he can't always harness it in reality. The Thunder will be in a tough competition for playoffs positioning. Westbrook isn't and never will be a dude that rests. That is a massive component these days. We can't control injury, but rest is making an 82 game schedule a 72-76 game schedule for some players before we even get started. In those games he gives you the boards of an elite big man, the assists of the best in the game, and elite points. The steals are upper tier. The 3's are enough. The boards allow you to pair him with a weak rebounding blocker (Myles Turner, KP when healthy) and still have an elite base in boards to build off of. The assists allow you to category crush with another top tier option. Again, if you think he is a tank FT% player then you have to knock him down a bit in roto, but if you think he reverts back to his norm then his %'s are fine. 

 

There is a lot to like and a lot to work with if you take Westbrook in the first round for 8 cat roto. I can see a case for Westbrook at 4 or 5, and any picks closer to 10 he is a no brainer. 9 cat you have a tougher decision on building, but the player rater is over simplified and doesn't take into account team builds. 

 

As of right now, it is obviously a clear outlier and I would bet he rebounds this year if I had to decide. But it is interesting that his poor shooting was blamed on the rule change yet he never really got it going after the year went on.

 

The fact he never rests and will play through anything is what put him on my radar this year. So I agree his competitiveness is what would move him up on draft boards but all the way to top 5 when he finished outside top 20 (9cat) last year is excessive. 

 

For us 9 cat guys, he was basically a 3 cat punt last year and it's impossible to win like that. I would love to gamble on his ft% bouncing back then adding Drummond along with another elite ft shooter like kawhi/jimmy. But considering I'll most likely have to spend top 5 money on RWB there is simply too much risk in such a gamble. 

In your case, at worst he is a two cat punt meanwhile you can expect him to be a 1 cat punt which would make him a much better pick in the top 5/7. 

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19 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

The only time I ever saw his owner do well was on a punt FT team with Drummond and DJ the year Westbrook went off.  Out of all my leagues he and John Wall probably have the most negative correlation to success. 

 

Its so enticing to draft some of these beasts like Westbrook, Wall, and Simmons...but so hard b/c of their negative categories... :(

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2 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

 

As of right now, it is obviously a clear outlier and I would bet he rebounds this year if I had to decide. But it is interesting that his poor shooting was blamed on the rule change yet he never really got it going after the year went on.

 

The fact he never rests and will play through anything is what put him on my radar this year. So I agree his competitiveness is what would move him up on draft boards but all the way to top 5 when he finished outside top 20 (9cat) last year is excessive. 

 

For us 9 cat guys, he was basically a 3 cat punt last year and it's impossible to win like that. I would love to gamble on his ft% bouncing back then adding Drummond along with another elite ft shooter like kawhi/jimmy. But considering I'll most likely have to spend top 5 money on RWB there is simply too much risk in such a gamble. 

In your case, at worst he is a two cat punt meanwhile you can expect him to be a 1 cat punt which would make him a much better pick in the top 5/7. 

I should have been more clear. 5 for 8 cat. I don't do 9 cat so I stay away from input on that since my opinion matters less than others that focus in 9 cat. 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/10/2018 at 10:42 AM, FantasyBallFan said:

 

For us 9 cat guys, he was basically a 3 cat punt last year and it's impossible to win like that. 

 

This is so untrue, what makes you say that?  A 3 cat punt is not uncommon.  In fact, I would say people often do it without knowing.

 

Last year I dominated the regular season with a core of Westbrook, Boogie, and Dipo.  Counting stats galore

 

edit:  Where is @apatas when we need him/her? This particular triple punt is their strategy 100%

Edited by jay14bay
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10 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

edit:  Where is @apatas when we need him/her? This particular triple punt is their strategy 100%

If you ask my opinion, Westbrook is not anymore in my TOP5, but he can be first-rounder.

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5 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

This is so untrue, what makes you say that?  A 3 cat punt is not uncommon.  In fact, I would say people often do it without knowing.

 

Last year I dominated the regular season with a core of Westbrook, Boogie, and Dipo.  Counting stats galore

In theory you could win a H2H league punting FOUR categories provided that: 1) you really were entrenched in winning the other five; 2) you didn’t have any injuries in the playoff, rest days, etc that swung a cat against you; 3) the regular season structure was set up to allow a team with 55% win percentage to even make the playoffs.  That being said, I still don’t like Westbrook in the firs round.  He is elite in the three big categories and steals but that’s just four categories.  He looks better than he really is because he puts up big numbers in the popcorn stats but according to metrics he’s a second round player.  There’s other players I would rather have in the first. Nevertheless there are some circumstance that would lead me to drafting him such as him being affordable in auction.  

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5 hours ago, jay14bay said:

 

This is so untrue, what makes you say that?  A 3 cat punt is not uncommon.  In fact, I would say people often do it without knowing.

 

Last year I dominated the regular season with a core of Westbrook, Boogie, and Dipo.  Counting stats galore

 

 

My apologies impossible is the wrong word, i’d just say its extremely difficult. You were lucky to have 2 players who were better than him in boogie & dipo but if last years version of westbrook was yor best player I dont see how a team could be successful.

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A large part of Westbrook's success is tied to his FT.

He is at best a second round player with the current FT, and vaults to first round status if he corrects.

Basically you would draft him by taking a punt on the direction of his FT this season.

 

I'm personally not taking the risk.

Last year could be an anomaly, but its one that lasted for the entire season and never got better.

I held him in one league last year and kept hoping his FT would normalise, I guess that's left a sour taste in my mouth...

Can't have a huge negative weigh down 3 cats before the second round has even started.

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I think Westbrooks Ft% will go up again. Last year they introduced the rule that you weren't allowed to go wherever you want between the ft's anymore, to reduce the time needed. His routine was to always go back to the middle oft the field. Hopefully he got a new ft routine and go back to his standards.

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