wendellrott

Jaylen Samuels 2018 Outlook

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24 minutes ago, All Knowing said:

Samuels will probable also be a start next week for most people, because New England gives up alot of receptions against rb's......Samuels will be a Sit against New orleans for most people championship week, becuase Saints have a elite front 7....I got great match-ups in weeks 15/16, so those weeks will be hard for me to decide, but this week against oakland is a no brainer must start.

Comes back again to whether he has TE eligibility in the league.

No way do I take him out of the TE spot as long as Conner is out. 

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2 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

My apologies if this has already been discussed, but my guess is there's basically no chance he's TE-eligible in Y! next year, correct?

 

Considering whether to keep him - I'd have to seriously think about it if he's TE eligible again. I jjust don't see how he could be.

 

unless jesse james and vance mcdonald both get hurt and they line Samuel up at te some this year, He wont be Te eligiible next year.

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6 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

Comes back again to whether he has TE eligibility in the league.

No way do I take him out of the TE spot as long as Conner is out. 

 

He does have TE eligibility in my league, and he will have it in my league week 16 becuase yahoo doesnt take elibibility away, But Ertz has a better matchup that week, you don't want to start any rb against new orleans, only a hand full of guys i'd even consider starting against new orleans at rb.....and i have spencer wares fresh legs against chargers on a short week for my flex next week(thursday night game), and marlon mack for my flex championship week against the Giants.

Edited by All Knowing

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Connor was averaging 5.75 targets a game.  With Samuel's skill set as a pass catcher, I would expect him to get even more than that.  I'm thinking the short passing game will be used as an extension of the run game, ala James White. 

"Jaylen Samuels, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Samuels was thrust into a starting role due to an injury to star running back James Conner, and possesses an outstanding advanced stats and metrics player profile. Samuels is a superior athlete to Conner, evidenced by his 105.9 (81st percentile) Speed Score, which is the most predictive workout metric indicating future NFL running back success. Furthermore, as an H-back at NC State, Samuels translated his athletic gifts into on-field production, particularly in the passing game, where he commanded a robust 20.2-pecent target share.

As long as Conner remains sidelined, fade Mike Tomlin’s “running back-by-committee” coach-speak and roll with the most athletic and versatile back on Pittsburgh’s roster. Spoiler alert: It’s not Stevan Ridley — it’s Jaylen Samuels."

from https://sports.yahoo.com/bold-predictions-six-players-fantasy-football-playoffs-004232388.html

 

You can compare their workout metrics here https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/james-conner/

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaylen-samuels

 

Of course, these athletic testing numbers don't tell you how good someone is at knowing the offense and their skill and vision as a RB.  But, Samuels has got a lot of potential to make big plays as he's fast for someone his size, got great hands, and he's got a nose for the end zone.  Ridley, on the other hand, has averaged just over 3 yards a carry over the last several years and has hands of stone.      

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"Jaylen Samuels, Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

  • Weekly rank 96, 31st among eligible RBs

  • High projection: 23.0 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 9.3 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.25

  • Bust chance: 0.06

Samuels is expected to start this week at running back for the Steelers with James Conner (ankle) out, though he is also expected to possibly split carries with Stevan Ridley. These projections would be safe for Conner, but if Samuels does play the majority of the game, he has this type of upside in the Steelers' potent offense.

Watson's Insight: The Steelers really ride their running backs, and if Samuels gets Conners-like touches, he has big impact potential this week."

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/insights120718/fantasy-football-jaylen-samuels-players-projected-exceed-ranking-week-14

Hey, this is IBM's Watson doing the fantasy projections.  25% chance of having a big game if you want to rely on a computer telling you how to play in fantasy. 

 

"For the record, IBM Insights had Henry projected for a high-mark of 18.0 fantasy points with a greater than 25 percent chance to boom, which in hindsight was actually really good considering his season high was less than 18 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues"

 

Edited by rocket

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21 hours ago, rocket said:

 

Watson's Insight: The Steelers really ride their running backs, and if Samuels gets Conners-like touches, he has big impact potential this week."

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/insights120718/fantasy-football-jaylen-samuels-players-projected-exceed-ranking-week-14

Hey, this is IBM's Watson doing the fantasy projections.  25% chance of having a big game if you want to rely on a computer telling you how to play in fantasy. 

 

"For the record, IBM Insights had Henry projected for a high-mark of 18.0 fantasy points with a greater than 25 percent chance to boom, which in hindsight was actually really good considering his season high was less than 18 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues"

 

 

After watching Watson on Jeopardy, there's no chance I'd let Watson own a team in my FF league, that's for sure. Us humans would never stand a chance. 

 

We could probably replace all...I mean all...the human FF analysts with Watson and be better off.

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On 12/7/2018 at 8:50 PM, rocket said:

Watson's Insight: The Steelers really ride their running backs, and if Samuels gets Conners-like touches, he has big impact potential this week."

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/insights120718/fantasy-football-jaylen-samuels-players-projected-exceed-ranking-week-14

Hey, this is IBM's Watson doing the fantasy projections.  25% chance of having a big game if you want to rely on a computer telling you how to play in fantasy. 

 

"For the record, IBM Insights had Henry projected for a high-mark of 18.0 fantasy points with a greater than 25 percent chance to boom, which in hindsight was actually really good considering his season high was less than 18 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues"

 

I reread the article in the link and one of the implications is that Watson modeled a 25% chance of exceeding his high projection of 23 points.  If in need of a high upside play this week, Samuels is worth considering for the roll of the dice.  In week 1, Conner was underestimated by the conventional rankers, since he had no established track record and analysts are generally conservative without one.       

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18 minutes ago, rocket said:

I reread the article in the link and one of the implications is that Watson modeled a 25% chance of exceeding his high projection of 23 points.  If in need of a high upside play this week, Samuels is worth considering for the roll of the dice.  In week 1, Conner was underestimated by the conventional rankers, since he had no established track record and analysts are generally conservative without one.       

 

This is why 95% of analysts are garbage. Same people who said in the summer that Mahomes was a "risky" QB to draft as your QB1. 

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8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

This is why 95% of analysts are garbage. Same people who said in the summer that Mahomes was a "risky" QB to draft as your QB1. 

Exactly. They are making up thier mistake touting samuels is the man so everyone forgive them from thier analysis mistakes.

 

little do they know, they are still making the same mistake hyping up a benchwarmer in samuels. Bloodbath coming.

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My expectations today are tempered until I have more of a sample size. I will not be starting him in a RB slot or Flex for that matter. I am however on the Yahoo platform so will confidently start him at TE. Regardless of timeshare, he should still put up respectable TE numbers in PPR at such a volatile postion week in and week out of you own anyone aside from Kelce or Ertz. Give me a few catches and a handful of carries and I think he will fare well against a dreadful Oak team. 

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15 hours ago, Brotherbock said:

 

After watching Watson on Jeopardy, there's no chance I'd let Watson own a team in my FF league, that's for sure. Us humans would never stand a chance. 

 

We could probably replace all...I mean all...the human FF analysts with Watson and be better off.

But the computer stated that the  team with the highest # of passing attempts this season "relies heavily on it's rbs"

 

?

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Jaylen Samuels will get the "bulk of the carries" in Week 14 against the Raiders.

Samuels will start, with Stevan Ridley mixing in. He's in a great spot this week as the touch-favorite in a matchup with Oakland's league-worst defense. With James Conner (ankle) looking at a multi-game absence, Samuels' role as the lead back looks likely to extend beyond this week.
 
 

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My biggest worry is that Oakland has given up the fewest receptions to running backs in the NFL (only 37 all year). If he doesn’t get the bulk of the carries, it could be a pretty pedestrian day. Because of that, I’m leaning Cohen in my flex but still torn. I’m not sure if the low number of receptions against Oakland is game flow dictated or because they have excellent cover LBs. They do give up a bunch on the ground, so if he gets 15 or more carries that could be significant

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Flex today over adams, Ekeler, Johnson. Expectations are tempered but I hope he can fall into the endzone for a few TDs today 

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Just now, Guwop said:

Flex today over adams, Ekeler, Johnson. Expectations are tempered but I hope he can fall into the endzone for a few TDs today 

 

Tempered, but multiple TD's? 😂

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8 minutes ago, firsttimer said:

My biggest worry is that Oakland has given up the fewest receptions to running backs in the NFL (only 37 all year). If he doesn’t get the bulk of the carries, it could be a pretty pedestrian day. Because of that, I’m leaning Cohen in my flex but still torn. I’m not sure if the low number of receptions against Oakland is game flow dictated or because they have excellent cover LBs. They do give up a bunch on the ground, so if he gets 15 or more carries that could be significant

I think RBs average around 10 yards per catch against Oakland, which is among the highest in the league.  Plus Oakland is usually losing, so teams don't pass to the RBs much on them.  That doesn't mean Oakland is good at defending against RB receivers.  He'll produce in the passing game because Pittsburg is a pass happy team. 

Edited by rocket

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3 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

 

Tempered, but multiple TD's? 😂

"Expectations are tempered but I HOPE He can fall into the endzone"

 

Expectation and hope aren't the same thing. Keep up lol

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4 minutes ago, Guwop said:

"Expectations are tempered but I HOPE He can fall into the endzone"

 

 

....for at least 3 TDs. That's what you said. 

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3 minutes ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

....for at least 3 TDs. That's what you said. 

 

So I can't expect something to happen but hope that something else happens? 

 

Come on guys does this need to be broken down further? :blink:

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Thrilled to have this guy.  The master plan comes together - picked him up several weeks ago, Conner gets injured, he's TE eligible - ...but I can't enjoy it because I have a first round bye.

 

However...

 

Quote

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports James Conner (ankle) could miss multiple weeks.

This isn't a huge surprise with Conner potentially dealing with a high-ankle sprain. The Steelers plan to be cautious with Conner, making him likely to miss at least another week. Jaylen Samuels will start in Conner's place and get the majority of carries against the Raiders. The Steelers should run a pass heavy scheme until Conner returns.
 
 
Source: NFL Network 
Dec 9 - 9:20 AM

 

Woot woot!  Let's go Jaylen!  Hope he smashes it and doesn't fumble away his chance at becoming this year's playoff league winner.

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