wendellrott

Jaylen Samuels 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

 

Because they had a very poor first half of the year giving up a few monster games.  Saints Defense FF points allowed vs enemy arms since week 9

 

18.9

0.8

21.6

14

19.1

4.7

 

Hasn't exactly been a smorgasbord lately.  Also, the saints have gotten out to huge leads often this season which has generally lead to opponents going pass heavy to catch up.

 

 

 

I was gonna say...using stats from the saints awful start is disingenuous.     So many shady stats floating around this time of year.    Saints have been tough as nails despite facing heavy passing scripts.  

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26 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

The Saints are the #1 run stop unit in the league, but are #28 vs the pass (bottom 5).  I don't think the 3-4 Saints have the personnel to double AB (w/ Lattimore and the FS presumably), single cover Washington (with CB2 Eli Apple) cover Switzer & Vance @TE (with some combination of the SS and an OLB) and still have a body (presumably another LB) to shadow Samuels.  I mean technically they could but Samuels can beat any of their coverage LB's anyway.  They definitely can't afford to shadow Samuels w/ a defensive back which is what it would take to slow him down.  I personally think Washington will torch the awful Eli Apple (JuJu might have embarrassed Eli Apple out of a starting job) but Eli will have his hands full so it's not like they can completely ignore JuJu's replacement.

 

Wish JuJu was playing but I think Samuels will see a slight increase in target share which will offset any additional focus the D puts on him (which I don't think they will be able to really do anyway).

Very good stuff.  Thank you.

 

The Saints shut down the Panthers with their one-armed QB, but McCaffrey still put up some nice stats.  Samuels is a similar player to McCaffrey, although of course not as good, but Samuels has a far better supporting cast.

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I think Samuels floor is really high this week (10+ in half PPR). The question is how high his ceiling is this week. I would be really surprised if he doesn’t have 6+ receptions. 

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So just came across some interesting numbers.  They pretty much confirm what was already believed but are actually much more worrisome for this game than I realized.

 

Steelers offensive rank

rush ypg - 30th

rush yds/att - 17th

rushes of 10+ - 23rd

 

Saints defensive rank

rush ypg - 1st

rush yds/att - 2nd

rushes of 10+ - 2nd

 

Concerned for a Samuels play in the champ game. 

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2 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

So just came across some interesting numbers.  They pretty much confirm what was already believed but are actually much more worrisome for this game than I realized.

 

Steelers offensive rank

rush ypg - 30th

rush yds/att - 17th

rushes of 10+ - 23rd

 

Saints defensive rank

rush ypg - 1st

rush yds/att - 2nd

rushes of 10+ - 2nd

 

Concerned for a Samuels play in the champ game. 

 

He's gonna catch passes. That's where his value will come from this week.

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11 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

He's gonna catch passes. That's where his value will come from this week.

Agreed.  It's just a matter if that's what you want to rely on for the championship.

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Is Samuels going to rush 20 times for 150 yards?  Pretty unlikely.  

 

But Vegas has Pitt @ N.O. as a very high scoring game.  Pittsburgh will move the ball up and down the field.  They will get into the red zone multiple times.

 

And when they do, Samuels will be in the backfield.  So he has a chance for some rushes, some catches, and a TD or 3.  That sounds like a pretty good player to have going in the championship game.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And when they do, Samuels will be in the backfield.  So he has a chance for some rushes, some catches, and a TD or 3.  That sounds like a pretty good player to have going in the championship game.

Sure does, especially in Yahoo where you can plug him in as a TE. HE doesn't have to be amazing, but 15/60 and a couple catches and I'll be very happy; anything else is gravy. Beautiful, creamy, championship gravy.

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56 minutes ago, erollinc said:

im playing him over gronk in my TE spot, and i feel GREAT about it.

Well a starting running back is generally a good bet to score more points than a TE.  And Gronk is slower than ever this year.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Is Samuels going to rush 20 times for 150 yards?  Pretty unlikely.  

 

But Vegas has Pitt @ N.O. as a very high scoring game.  Pittsburgh will move the ball up and down the field.  They will get into the red zone multiple times.

 

And when they do, Samuels will be in the backfield.  So he has a chance for some rushes, some catches, and a TD or 3.  That sounds like a pretty good player to have going in the championship game.

 

If they were playing the same Saints in the first two weeks maybe. Pittsburgh will not be driving the ball up and down on them all day long especially if JuJu is out. That D is on another level now. My hopes aren't that high I'm afraid so I'll go a little bit more modest and hope he can get me around 17 carries for 70+ yards and a few catches. Hopefully a TD which I'd be more than happy with since he's in my TE slot. 

Edited by Itsswilli

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Don’t get cute-  the pitt starting back is a must start weekly.   I’d rather Juju play for the offensive health in general-   But there’s too many paths to points to bench Samuels 

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41 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Don’t get cute-  the pitt starting back is a must start weekly.   I’d rather Juju play for the offensive health in general-   But there’s too many paths to points to bench Samuels 

Ya. If he can't score his projection, 11.95 in my league. I'd be very happy with that

Anything more is just extra gravy on top of my biscuits :P

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6 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Agreed.  It's just a matter if that's what you want to rely on for the championship.

In Yahoo, he’s likely a big part of why teams are even in the ship to begin with. Of course I’m relying on him to take down the hardware!

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Barring injury he will score between 10-30 points in PPR formats. He's a start in 99% of situations, and if you have several better options than congrats on your championship this week. 

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1 hour ago, jccouger said:

Barring injury he will score between 10-30 points in PPR formats. He's a start in 99% of situations, and if you have several better options than congrats on your championship this week. 

Don't normally post AC content here but last week so F it.  Do Samuels owners like him in a flex spot over Damien Williams this week in standard?  (Kamara and Chubb locked in at RB)

Edited by OmegaRed88

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4 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Don't normally post AC content here but last week so F it.  Do Samuels owners like him in a flex spot over Damien Williams this week in standard?  (Kamara and Chubb locked in at RB)

Feel like you can't go wrong either way. 

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1 hour ago, jccouger said:

Barring injury he will score between 10-30 points in PPR formats. He's a start in 99% of situations, and if you have several better options than congrats on your championship this week. 

I have Chubb, Cook and David Johnson as my starting RB's. Should I bench one of them for Samuels? Or bench George Kittle and play Samuels at TE in yahoo? 

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10 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Don't normally post AC content here but last week so F it.  Do Samuels owners like him in a flex spot over Damien Williams this week in standard?  (Kamara and Chubb locked in at RB)

 

 I don’t see how every Damien owner is not starting him this week for must MUST start. Samuels is definitely appealing and start worthy, but Williams left for the workhorse role to himself in that offense, you’d be nuts to try and justify benching him. Fortunately I’m playing both in different leagues this weekend. Tack on that Damien has the better matchup it should be pretty clear.

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3 minutes ago, TheGhost206 said:

I have Chubb, Cook and David Johnson as my starting RB's. Should I bench one of them for Samuels? Or bench George Kittle and play Samuels at TE in yahoo? 

 

One thing is clear - you keep kittle in your lineup. It’s whether you roll samuels or Dj. It’s close but give me samuels, I’m buying the better offense here.

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1 minute ago, cbe_88 said:

 

One thing is clear - you keep kittle in your lineup. It’s whether you roll samuels or Dj. It’s close but give me samuels, I’m buying the better offense here.

Agreed. I'm actually in 2 super bowls this week and have both Samuels and DJ on both teams. One being a standard league and the other being a PPR. Not sure which format favors which player. Ugh. 

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1 minute ago, TheGhost206 said:

Agreed. I'm actually in 2 super bowls this week and have both Samuels and DJ on both teams. One being a standard league and the other being a PPR. Not sure which format favors which player. Ugh. 

 

That Arizona offense is just fml. And I still haven’t forgotten about that game where the back up Arizona rb scored two tds. Dj isn’t a bad play, but I like samuels especially in ppr settings, but generally like him better in any setting.

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2 minutes ago, cbe_88 said:

 

One thing is clear - you keep kittle in your lineup. It’s whether you roll samuels or Dj. It’s close but give me samuels, I’m buying the better offense here.

Image result for ditka sidelines gif

"who- Kittle? ...are you f'n stupid-??"

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With JuJu saying he will play, a bunch of running room and underneath receptions just opened up for Samuels.  Merry Xmas!!!

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Damien vs Samuels is steak vs lobster.  

 

I think i lean slightly towards Samuels, especially with juju saying he’ll play.   You just never can be sure with Andy Reid 

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