JDL88

Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

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Back to back years of 75 games so durability seems to be getting better. Post all star break numbers of 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 steals, 3.5 blocks, 0.6 3, 52 FG% and 84.5 FT%

 

Is he the number 1 overall pick this year?

Edited by JDL88
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Harden is his equal because of his durability, but if Davis somehow puts in a full season it will likely go down in the fantasy history books as the greatest season ever by an individual. Don't play it safe, take him #1 it's worth the gamble. 

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First pick and it should't be close. IMO I think Harden as player 2 is closer to player 7 or 8 than he is to AD.

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10 hours ago, Saucy said:

First pick and it should't be close. IMO I think Harden as player 2 is closer to player 7 or 8 than he is to AD.

I agree and I think metrics support that conclusion.  The difference between Harden and AD is .33 standard deviations which is about difference between Harden and players on the turn of the 1st/2nd.  Actually if I could gaurantee they would play 75 games and assuming I wasn’t punting FG/To I would take Curry or Durant over Harden.  This is one reason why I hate snake.  I would much rather have AD and whoever is available at 24 than the best other combination of a first/second that I can find (assuming it’s roto and I’m not punting anything).  To make

things even more unfair you then get to select first in the third as well! If it’s H2H you can draft Harden and punt To or draft LBJ/Giannis and Drummond and punt FT.  Assuming you’re punting FT Drummond is probably the closest you’ll get to AD.  He’s close in stocks and he might add .6 threes this year.  Drummond gets more rebounds too.  The biggest downside other than punting FT is AD gets almost twice the points.  So considering you need to punt Ft and spend a second round pick to get even a reasonable approximation of AD who isn’t nearly as good in points I’d say picking first in snake is an unfair start which is why I tend to avoid it.

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Now that Boogie is gone and that the Pelicans have fully embraced the small ball offense, he'll be a beast as long as he's healthy.

He's my #1 pick for sure.

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On 8/17/2018 at 3:04 PM, BetterCallHinkie said:

Better question: Will he crack $100 in auctions this year?

 

That be something else.

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On 8/17/2018 at 9:04 PM, BetterCallHinkie said:

 

Better question: Will he crack $100 in auctions this year?

I remember a few years ago TOAA bid over $100 for him in one of our leagues. He was super hyped back then.  That season was a let down and he had a couple of seasons in which he missed games.  But I think that’s behind him and he’s the best fantasy player by far.  Let’s put it this way: the only leagues I cashed last season were leagues in which I had him.  How much am I willing to bid?  As much as it takes.  Finally, drafting first in a snake dynasty is just unfair.  The person who takes him is a lock to cash for years to come unless he drafts poorly the rest of the draft or AD gets injured.  

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17 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

How much am I willing to bid?  As much as it takes.  

 

we should do a mock to truly answer that question...

 

17 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

Finally, drafting first in a snake dynasty is just unfair.  The person who takes him is a lock to cash for years to come unless he drafts poorly the rest of the draft or AD gets injured.  

 

that's why I'm off snakes this year. or maybe roll the dice on just one lol

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3 hours ago, BetterCallHinkie said:

 

we should do a mock to truly answer that question...

 

 

that's why I'm off snakes this year. or maybe roll the dice on just one lol

Theoretically there’s a point where it would no longer make sense to bid on AD.  The question is are you willing to find out where the stopping point is for me? You may get stuck with a $99 AD bid.  

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MVP and #1 fantasy player and its not even close (metrics/analytics also support this).

 

High usage player. The kids only 25. If you get 75 games out of him your looking pretty to win a championship. He single handily brought me from 2nd last place due to other injuries late in the season to a championship. Unreal.

 

 

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Planned on targetting this guy at all costs but that H2H playoff schedule has changed my mind a bit

 

At the very least we can expect no rest days as they’ll be competing for a playoff spot.

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16 hours ago, FantasyBallFan said:

Planned on targetting this guy at all costs but that H2H playoff schedule has changed my mind a bit

 

At the very least we can expect no rest days as they’ll be competing for a playoff spot.

The Pelicans have very little margin for error and are a very top heavy roster, but it is much better than last season. If they lose Jrue or AD for any stretch of time I do not see them being in the playoff race. And it isn't like those two guys are models of health. Just consider the health risk for the team and their playoff chances.  

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Pels are deeper this year with the capable additions of Payton, Randle and maybe Okafor/Diallo if he develops vs just Jrue, Moore and Miro (when cousins went down) 2nd half of last

 

They shouldnt affect his numbers much but that’s still more mouths to feed as a whole as AD should be able to slot in alongside all of those guys.

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Even with boogie, he was a top 3

player .. Randle is a downgrade on boogie and Payton a downgrade on rondo.. the only doubt about AD is his health, but he is #1 pick and it’s not even fair! 

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This topic is even "unnecessary" this season because it seems nobody doubts about AD being No1. And I am the last person who doubts, because he was before last season my rank No2 (after Durant) and I would have been drafted him before KAT and Giannis.

Edited by apatas

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8 hours ago, Mikhov said:

Pels are deeper this year with the capable additions of Payton, Randle and maybe Okafor/Diallo if he develops vs just Jrue, Moore and Miro (when cousins went down) 2nd half of last

 

They shouldnt affect his numbers much but that’s still more mouths to feed as a whole as AD should be able to slot in alongside all of those guys.

 

disagree, less mouths to feed. boogie was a huge mouth to feed. Payton and Randle are steps down from outgoing Rondo/Boogie.

 

AD is my pick to win MVP but they got to win like ~55 games, I am not worried about his eligibility stat wise.

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Giannis and AD seem to be my top 2 targets when I have the first or 2nd pick. Giannis is more helpful in a build where you don't want to tank assists, AD is great for that same build where you focus more on FT% and blocks and less on assists. I am excited to see what those two do this season.

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