JDL88

Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, HotSauce24 said:

 

Hopefully all the people who dropped him for Jake Layman can pick him back up.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Hopefully all the people who dropped him for Jake Layman can pick him back up.

Not picking AD back up if it means dropping Jake Layman or Jeremy Lamb

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a roller coaster has it been, from hopes to being traded to the Lakers and their good PO schedule, to mass hysteria about shutdown, finally to this middle ground of staying on the team with the worst PO schedule + a minutes restriction.  Though it's not ideal I think he can still average around: 20 ppg/10 rpg/2 apg/2 bpg/1 spg/.5 3pg on 50/80 with under 2 TO.  That would still put him top 10 value imo.  I'd value him somewhere between Jokic and Towns.

Edited by StifleTower2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

What a roller coaster has it been, from hopes to being traded to the Lakers and their good PO schedule, to mass hysteria about shutdown, finally to this middle ground of staying on the team with the worst PO schedule + a minutes restriction.  Though it's not ideal I think he can still average around: 20 ppg/10 rpg/2 apg/2 bpg/1 spg/.5 3pg on 50/80 with under 2 TO.  That would still put him top 10 value imo.  I'd value him somewhere between Jokic and Towns.

 

I find it difficult to see Towns or Jokic value from Davis. It's not only the minutes, but also the usage that seemed down on those 4 games before the ASG. If he plays 25 minutes on 50-60% effort then I don't see him even close to top10, but we ll see. That's all estimations right now.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RipCity0 said:

 

I find it difficult to see Towns or Jokic value from Davis. It's not only the minutes, but also the usage that seemed down on those 4 games before the ASG. If he plays 25 minutes on 50-60% effort then I don't see him even close to top10, but we ll see. That's all estimations right now.

I agree, it's hard to say.  I was basically just extrapolating those numbers from his season averages then reducing the minutes to 20.  I don't think people fully comprehend that his zscore was more than twice that of Jokic's on the season.  Yes, his usage could be down, but that might have been a temporary thing that the team worked on.  There's also the issue of a s--- PO schedule.  However, the fewer minutes a player plays, they have a tendency to make that time more impactful on a per minute basis.  We will see.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

What a roller coaster has it been, from hopes to being traded to the Lakers and their good PO schedule, to mass hysteria about shutdown, finally to this middle ground of staying on the team with the worst PO schedule + a minutes restriction.  Though it's not ideal I think he can still average around: 20 ppg/10 rpg/2 apg/2 bpg/1 spg/.5 3pg on 50/80 with under 2 TO.  That would still put him top 10 value imo.  I'd value him somewhere between Jokic and Towns.

In the last 2 weeks, standard h2h 9cat leagues, highest ranked  Davis on BBM  is....  Bertrans at 37th, AD is 48th.   I find it hard to see that AD can be close to Jokic and KAT for ROS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I traded AD away but if I still owned him I would be reasonably optimistic. Even if you halve his season stats he is still a very valuable player, most likely more valuable than anyone you can realistically get in a trade back.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

In the last 2 weeks, standard h2h 9cat leagues, highest ranked  Davis on BBM  is....  Bertrans at 37th, AD is 48th.   I find it hard to see that AD can be close to Jokic and KAT for ROS

Lol thats 4 games. One were he scored 3 points (external circumstances) and the other he got injured before half time.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So his range is between 19 points 9 rebounds 1.7 blocks 1 steals (in 25 minutes) to about 15 7 1.4 blocks and less then a steal in 20 minutes. + the efficiency numbers..  so lets say he plays in between those numbers.. we’re getting a guy that averages 18 8 1.5 lol. I lost out trading ayton+tobias for him and milsap.. but it doesnt hurt as much now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

In the last 2 weeks, standard h2h 9cat leagues, highest ranked  Davis on BBM  is....  Bertrans at 37th, AD is 48th.   I find it hard to see that AD can be close to Jokic and KAT for ROS

That’s a bizarre sample size to deliberately cherry pick, as evidenced by the fact that Bertrans was 37th.  I could produce a litany of other outliers during that time but it would be a waste of time.  Of the last two weeks one week was the all-star game and he only played four games.  One was a game where he played hardly at all.  Of the other three he had one great game, one mediocre game, and one poor game.  A lot of that was due to controversy and instability.  If the rotation stabilizes even if it means fewer minutes he can easily retain first round value.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I ended up getting Vucevic back and losing value in the rest of the deal Lauri/Tobias for Derozen/Fox...

Had this been what was being discussed, I would have just sat tight... At least I'm not taking blood pressure medicine every NOLA game

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

That’s a bizarre sample size to deliberately cherry pick, as evidenced by the fact that Bertrans was 37th.  I could produce a litany of other outliers during that time but it would be a waste of time.  Of the last two weeks one week was the all-star game and he only played four games.  One was a game where he played hardly at all.  Of the other three he had one great game, one mediocre game, and one poor game.  A lot of that was due to controversy and instability.  If the rotation stabilizes even if it means fewer minutes he can easily retain first round value.

I think it is relevant, because that covers the time after trade request. We all know that AD was #1 player before trade request. That is in the past.

In the present, AD asked to be traded and circumstances changed.  Over the last 4 games, he is not even top-40 player.   Entire league went through All-Star break, so that should not affect AD production.  For the record, five games is the most any player played over the last two weeks.

I am curious to know if people who traded for AD after his trade request are happy with the returns so far?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

I think it is relevant, because that covers the time after trade request. We all know that AD was #1 player before trade request. That is in the past.

In the present, AD asked to be traded and circumstances changed.  Over the last 4 games, he is not even top-40 player.   Entire league went through All-Star break, so that should not affect AD production.  For the record, five games is the most any player played over the last two weeks.

I am curious to know if people who traded for AD after his trade request are happy with the returns so far?

 

Its not just bizzare its inaccurate and disingenious. AD put up his worst line.. of his career because of the peak of drama of wether he should sit out or not.... then he got “injured putting up 14 4 2 1 1 1 at the half... meaning 28 8 4 2 2 2 for the game.. you don’t use that in a sample size and deem that “consistent with the trend” when by every point of the matter those games were outliers even considering the minutes limit.. based on his career.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gile Pile said:

I think it is relevant, because that covers the time after trade request. We all know that AD was #1 player before trade request. That is in the past.

In the present, AD asked to be traded and circumstances changed.  Over the last 4 games, he is not even top-40 player.   Entire league went through All-Star break, so that should not affect AD production.  For the record, five games is the most any player played over the last two weeks.

I am curious to know if people who traded for AD after his trade request are happy with the returns so far?

You could be right, we don't know, but I'm inclined to believe he can maintain first round production even with capped minutes.  I traded for him in one keeper league and I am not even going there bc I believe if you can obtain the #1 fantasy player in a keeper league it's worth almost any price.

 

Pertaining to the one redraft league...meh.  I traded my Irving, Mirotic, and Gasol for AD and Green after the announcement of his trade request but prior to the ASB.  At that point I thought there was a 50/50 chance he would be traded to the Lakers and if he wasn't then there was a 50/50 chance he would play for the Pelicans.  In sum, I thought there was a 75%+ of him playing somewhere.  We missed on the Lakers, but we semi-hit on the Pels as he's going to play with a minutes restriction.

 

As for my side of the trade, I intentionally gave up guys whom I also had concerns with so the risk would even out.  If AD was shutdown it would stand to reason that Mirotic would be as well, or traded.  He just recently returning from injury and although it's still early his outlook isn't good.  He and Green probably balance out.  Gasol appears to be in for a less role.  Irving will probably play fewer games than AD this season.  If Irving/Gasol are playing a similar amount of games to AD then yes I'd rather have AD.  Either way it seems like a neutral EV move...sometimes there's simply nothing you can do.  

 

The thing is I don't know many people who tried to buy AD during this time period and most people thought I offered an absurdly rich package.  So if I represent the absolute most people were willing to offer for AD and I broke even then it stands to reason that people who bought him for less are satisfied and those who sold low got ripped off.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, stickman786 said:

 

Its not just bizzare its inaccurate and disingenious. AD put up his worst line.. of his career because of the peak of drama of wether he should sit out or not.... then he got “injured putting up 14 4 2 1 1 1 at the half... meaning 28 8 4 2 2 2 for the game.. you don’t use that in a sample size and deem that “consistent with the trend” when by every point of the matter those games were outliers even considering the minutes limit.. based on his career.

Except they're not outliers because the situation has changed. I would argue it's closer to the development of a new trend than an outlier. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Except they're not outliers because the situation has changed. I would argue it's closer to the development of a new trend than an outlier. 

The problem is that we won’t know until the end of the season whether it was an outlier or the first evidence of a new trend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Except they're not outliers because the situation has changed. I would argue it's closer to the development of a new trend than an outlier. 

 

Im willing to bet you anthony davis wont score in the single digits... the rest of the season. And the second game he got injured.... he was on “track” to put up his averages. You want to say he might get shut down thats a worthy argument. BUT if hes playing hes not going to get injured every game he plays in... and if hes playing he won’t be putting up 3 points a night. Hes going to be putting up somewhere between 15-18 ppg and 7-9 rpg in that limited time span

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, stickman786 said:

 

Im willing to bet you anthony davis wont score in the single digits... the rest of the season. And the second game he got injured.... he was on “track” to put up his averages. You want to say he might get shut down thats a worthy argument. BUT if hes playing hes not going to get injured every game he plays in... and if hes playing he won’t be putting up 3 points a night. Hes going to be putting up somewhere between 15-18 ppg and 7-9 rpg in that limited time span

I will take that bet. No game under 10 ppg that he plays in is the bet? Does this include a game he gets injured in? Even if not, I will take the bet. Name your price. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...