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Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

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1 minute ago, Bugs bunny said:

When you go to purchase a new house or a new car, do you just go with the first house you look at or the first car the sales person shows you? 

That's a dumb analogy that is very easy to poke holes in.  You assume that when shopping that deals get better with time, or if you shop more you'll eventually discover a better deal.  The reality is that sometimes the first deal is the best deal and it can be time sensitive.  Imagine going to a government car auction.  You're looking for a Nissan Altima but you have no control over what was seized.  To your surprise the first car up is a 2018 Nissan Altima!  The high bid is 10K, a steal!  But you pass it up because you don't want to buy the first car that comes along.  Someone else bids, you lose, and a deal like that never comes along again.

 

Anyway, I'm not referring to the trade and I think that argument is tired.  I'm referring to how they've run their team in totality.  They were able to put together some good pieces, but they've made more bad decisions than good since acquiring AD.  They only have themselves to blame and being a small market is no excuse.    

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On 23/02/2019 at 1:58 PM, My Dinner With Andre said:

Def needs some rest after that grueling 20 mins he played last night...

 

Anthony Davis (rest) has been ruled out of Saturday's game vs. the Lakers.

Feb 23, 2019, 1:51 PM

This is what i meant a few posts back telling that other poster he was very naive to believe Ferry and thinking he will stick to his quote that "Ad will play ros on reduced minutes". 

The writing has been on the wall people need to learn to read between the lines. Or just listen to me because i have been right about nearly everything this season 

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4 minutes ago, richg24 said:

This is what i meant a few posts back telling that other poster he was very naive to believe Ferry and thinking he will stick to his quote that "Ad will play ros on reduced minutes". 

The writing has been on the wall people need to learn to read between the lines. Or just listen to me because i have been right about nearly everything this season 

They said he would play reduced minutes AND miss back-to-backs and it's likely that they will just sit him over any minor injury.  I don't think it required brilliant powers of induction to figure that out.

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On 22/02/2019 at 3:34 PM, akund said:

 

What are you talking about? That wasn't the initial report. Danny Ferry said that Anthony Davis will play the rest of the season, then said it will be on reduced minutes.

https://twitter.com/FantasyLabsNBA/status/1098739703648444416

https://twitter.com/_Andrew_Lopez/status/1098739205595910144

 

On 22/02/2019 at 6:49 PM, KilloWertz said:

I wouldn't call it naive.  There's nothing to say that it shouldn't be taken at face value.  Sure, if certain reports (like Ferry trying to get the league to let them sit Davis) are true, then obviously the team wants to shut him down.  That doesn't mean the NBA will ever let them, or that the team will actually ever give the league the finger and actually shut him down.  Nobody on any sides have given any indication that there's an almost definite chance that will happen.

Actually believing that there's a legit chance that Davis plays the rest of the season is no worse than you firmly believing he won't and will somehow get shutdown any day now.  At least there's something legitimately out there to back that up, and there was no reason to call the person naive.  Not saying that's an extreme insult or something, but until you have something to back it up, you're literally just speculating.

@StifleTower2

if you look at these posts, this is what i was talking about. These quotes from the pelicans caused people to believe that AD is going to be playing ros in reduced minutes, as the team has said, and owners believed it and were happy they may be getting a consistent 75% of AD value nightly. I kept saying the obvious, that these quotes don't matter and that AD has very limited value ros now especially in h2h leagues. Its still a shutdown, just a gentler one since he will play games here and there. Again, if you still have AD now and don't play with idiots you are stuck with the headache of owning him and not knowing whether he will produce any stats at all in your playoff weeks from your 1st round pick and normally number 1 player. Not a good spot to be in. I was advising everyone to trade for any top 40 asset and nobody likes that idea but it was the only smart move at the time. I saw that you mentioned you traded for AD in a couple leagues few weeks ago, bad move imo but i think you play mostly roto so may not hurt as much.

But still, after this ordeal started it was obvious to most of us that AD's fantasy season essentially ended when he made his demands and the team made their intention clear that they want to sit him and protect their asset. 

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1 minute ago, richg24 said:

 

@StifleTower2

if you look at these posts, this is what i was talking about. These quotes from the pelicans caused people to believe that AD is going to be playing ros in reduced minutes, as the team has said, and owners believed it and were happy they may be getting a consistent 75% of AD value nightly. I kept saying the obvious, that these quotes don't matter and that AD has very limited value ros now especially in h2h leagues. Its still a shutdown, just a gentler one since he will play games here and there. Again, if you still have AD now and don't play with idiots you are stuck with the headache of owning him and not knowing whether he will produce any stats at all in your playoff weeks from your 1st round pick and normally number 1 player. Not a good spot to be in. I was advising everyone to trade for any top 40 asset and nobody likes that idea but it was the only smart move at the time. I saw that you mentioned you traded for AD in a couple leagues few weeks ago, bad move imo but i think you play mostly roto so may not hurt as much.

But still, after this ordeal started it was obvious to most of us that AD's fantasy season essentially ended when he made his demands and the team made their intention clear that they want to sit him and protect their asset. 

I understand what you're saying.  One league was a dynasty league so I'm not even going to debate that trade...this year is irrelevant, although it may have cost me some cash in the short term.  The other was a league where everyone I gave up was a risk as well: Irving, Gasol, and Mirotic for AD and Green.  Actually, my team has been better since the trade as Irving/Gasol/Mirotic owners are getting very little out of them.  Gasol/Mirotic have been mediocre in their new home and similarly to AD, I don't think Irving plays more than 2 games per week during the fantasy playoffs.  That said, it was after AD announced wanting to be traded, but before the trade deadline.  I wouldn't make that trade now.

 

As for the actual issue of his playing time idk.  It seems as if we're talking in circles.  As you mentioned, H2H versus roto is very different, as I'm first in a roto league where I have AD.  H2H who knows?  I don't think he will be "hard shutdown".  I don't think they will ever risk ire from the league and negative publicity by announcing a shutdown.  Though I agree with you that he will sit back-to-backs (I assumed everyone thought this), will play no more than 25 mpg (though he could play fewer minutes), and they will be looking to sit him for any minor injuries.  Still, it's better than a hard shutdown.  If I was to give this situation a letter grade for AD owners it would be a D, but that beats an F.

 

I thought he could have Jokish light value on 25 mpg but that's clearly not the case.  I think something like 16/8/3 with two stocks on 50/80 shooting and under 2 is achievable.  That's still Horford territory.  

 

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Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

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2 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

 

Good luck. I think his trade value is barely top 50 playerish. Capela can return top 30 easy.
I made a mistake and traded to get him 10 days ago... Took a gamble. Gave up Trae Young and Tobias Harris... Regret is real...

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4 minutes ago, ShayAK said:

 

Good luck. I think his trade value is barely top 50 playerish. Capela can return top 30 easy.
I made a mistake and traded to get him 10 days ago... Took a gamble. Gave up Trae Young and Tobias Harris... Regret is real...

 

Top 50 at best right? I mean think about it hes going to play no back2backs. A literal 20min cap. Any type of injury hes done. Good chance he gets shut down a little early. Also crap playoff schedule if you're in head2head. 

I just want him off my team at this point. If this guy will do Capela im geeked to move him. I'm seriously considering moving him with Randle for Lauri just to rid myself of the headache. I get hes amazing for 20mins but the tilt isnt worth it.

Tough luck on trading Young/Harris for him. I get the gamble its AD. 

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spacer.png

"So how's those trade talks?"

"Ah, you know . . . "

 

 

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Tomorrow's game is also nationally televised. After that there's only 2 nationally televised games left. Mar 10th and 12th.

Edited by Bugs bunny

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3 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

If you’re going to get someone like Lauri out of it at least get the other guy to give you his drop (or better).  I’m ok with the trade in the abstract as Randle is ranked pretty low in 9 cat despite his obvious contributions.  The problem with Lauri is that the bulls also have a terrible P.O. schedule and also have nothing to play for.  It’s a lateral move.  If I’m going to move AD it’s going to be to lower risk, this is the same risk but basically lower upside.  

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5 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

 

 

i was..of course it's the league where it was the 2nd accepted trade all year....and now it's the 2nd trade that's been vetoed within 24 hours

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1 minute ago, pagkerguy8 said:

 

 

i was..of course it's the league where it was the 2nd accepted trade all year....and now it's the 2nd trade that's been vetoed within 24 hours

Well? Don't leave us hanging. What did you offer?

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5 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

I think that ship has sailed in redraft leagues (any format) for this season, assuming you want to get someone of value.  After all, in last 2 weeks AD is ranked 149th on BBM  (142th on hashtagbasketball)   in standard 9 cat H2H leagues. Please don't tell me that sample size is too small, not relevant, he is better in roto leagues etc.  He was #1 player before trade request. At  this point, after trade request,   AD is flawed, high risk player with minutes limit .

In keepers/ dynasty leagues I wouldn't trade him unless I get another  top 5 player in return.

In other words, sit tight and hope for the best 

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12 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

I think that ship has sailed in redraft leagues (any format) for this season, assuming you want to get someone of value.  After all, in last 2 weeks AD is ranked 149th on BBM  (142th on hashtagbasketball)   in standard 9 cat H2H leagues. Please don't tell me that sample size is too small, not relevant, he is better in roto leagues etc.  He was #1 player before trade request. At  this point, after trade request,   AD is flawed, high risk player with minutes limit .

In keepers/ dynasty leagues I wouldn't trade him unless I get another  top 5 player in return.

In other words, sit tight and hope for the best 

Agreed.   Not to mention the trade deadline has passed in half of my leagues. 

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6 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

Anyone having any luck selling him? I've been offering him all over my league and nobody is very interested. Best im getting is a offer of him and Randle for Lauri. I even offered him straight up for Capela and the owner said "hes considering it". 

Even in 20mins his production is ok I'm just thinking hes getting shutdown early for sure.

i would trade my AD for Lauri and Randle in a heartbeat

Laurie is ranked 30.... 12th last week and 14th the week before

i threw out offers over all star break, all denied but i was asking for too much

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5 hours ago, lacit1707 said:

i would trade my AD for Lauri and Randle in a heartbeat

Laurie is ranked 30.... 12th last week and 14th the week before

i threw out offers over all star break, all denied but i was asking for too much

It was my Ad/Randle for Lauri/Dunn. I literally offered AD out to every team. Nobody wants the guy. People didnt even want to counter offer me hes viewed as untouchable by people in that league outside of two teams. Capela guy told me hes not doing it so that ship sunk. I just dont want this guy on my team what a tilting situation. 

You would think his name alone could fetch something but not in my money leagues. Its annoying because i was going to start shopping him right at all star break when he had that huge first half in that game, then he got injured(looked like a BS injury) and tanked his value even more. I should of moved him pre deadline could of got a haul for him then. Well played to you guys who did that.

 

 

Edited by buzzkilloton
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On 2/25/2019 at 11:21 PM, richg24 said:

This is what i meant a few posts back telling that other poster he was very naive to believe Ferry and thinking he will stick to his quote that "Ad will play ros on reduced minutes". 

The writing has been on the wall people need to learn to read between the lines. Or just listen to me because i have been right about nearly everything this season 

Did you also draft Oladipo? 

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18 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

It was my Ad/Randle for Lauri/Dunn. I literally offered AD out to every team. Nobody wants the guy. People didnt even want to counter offer me hes viewed as untouchable by people in that league outside of two teams. Capela guy told me hes not doing it so that ship sunk. I just dont want this guy on my team what a tilting situation. 

You would think his name alone could fetch something but not in my money leagues. Its annoying because i was going to start shopping him right at all star break when he had that huge first half in that game, then he got injured(looked like a BS injury) and tanked his value even more. I should of moved him pre deadline could of got a haul for him then. Well played to you guys who did that.

 

 

 

ah. i misread it....

why dont you try Lauri for AD straight up?

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Anyone watching the game tonight?  So many story lines to follow, I am interested in two:

- watching the watch body language of NO players when AD plays and does not play

- watching the body language of Lakers players that were offered in the trade

 

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7 minutes ago, Gile Pile said:

Anyone watching the game tonight?  So many story lines to follow, I am interested in two:

- watching the watch body language of NO players when AD plays and does not play

- watching the body language of Lakers players that were offered in the trade

 

Not watching, but please post your findings after the game.

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Will AD "try" tonight or will he take it easy on future teammate LeBron?

 

Btw, maybe a hard foul or two by Brandon Ingram on AD and maybe AD happens to get hurt??? Suddenly AD's not getting traded and Ingram gets to stay in L.A.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre

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Super glad I gambled a couple of weeks ago (pre-deadline) and traded away AD. It's going to be crazy hard to sell AD now unless it's at a huge discount. FYI - the deal I ended up getting was my AD + Russell + Kris Dunn for his PG13 + Fox. Ended up gaining big time in terms of both playoff schedule, as well as getting rid of the headache that is AD.

What's funny is that if I have the #1 pick next year, definitely still picking AD. As most people would. Don't think there's any other player who has given fantasy players this level of headache over the years.

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9 hours ago, claptondecheeks said:

Not watching, but please post your findings after the game.

Just my observations after watching  first quarter of the NO-LAL game:
- Lakers  playing without any urgency and effort so far
- LBJ effort on defense is non existent
- Kuzma and Ingranm are actually trying, at least on offense
- Lakers veterans, other than LBJ,  do not seem to care too much
- NO players clearly do not want AD playing.  So far, AD  has 8 pts (4/4 FG).  
- Three attempts where put backs (lucky bounce and after offensive reb).
- NO does not run any plays for AD.
 - AD stands in no man zone in the corner (not even behind 3pt line), when he gets the ball he passes it right away.
 - With AD on the bench, NO is much better. They play like an actual NBAteam.
 
 Gundy brothers are having great time criticizing NBA decision to force NO to play AD.
 On the side note, I would like to know why Lakers let Randle walk.
  He is destroying McGee.Arguably,  NO might already have the best young Lakers prospect
 
 If I were AD or LBJ owner I would be very nervous about ROS outlook.  
 AD, even when he plays, does not seem to be an integral part of the team.
 And LBJ, if they lose tonight, will be vey high shutdown risk imo.
 
 I am out, I have better things to do that watch this

 

 

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