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Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

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1 minute ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Agree on Luka, he is a combination of both excitement and talent, and the league blew it by omitting him.  If he wasn't a foreign player, there is no doubt in my mind he's on the team.

I think people watch because its an exhibition of the best players in the world, or at least it was at one point, before it turned into the hoop Grammy's.  Kevin Durant is about as exciting as a bowl of oatmeal, unless you are entertained by the idea an anorexic Frankenstein shooting jumpers.  But he's there because he's one of the best in the world, not anything he does exciting.

 

This is entirely subjective and I'm certain there are plenty of people who view Durant as one of the most exciting players to watch.  

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According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the Pelicans have parted ways with GM Dell Demps.
The Pelicans 2018-19 season has been a disaster. After advancing to the second round of the playoffs last year, they are out of the postseason picture and their franchise cornerstone, Anthony Davis, has requested a trade. Demps ended up being the fall guy. Per Woj, "Ownership was livid with an injured Anthony Davis leaving the arena during Thursday night’s game. Gayle Benson is telling associates she wants an overhaul of Pelicans and a search for a GM to take command of Davis trade talks and the reshaping of team’s future."

Edited by chud12
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4 minutes ago, chud12 said:

According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, the Pelicans have parted ways with GM Dell Demps.
The Pelicans 2018-19 season has been a disaster. After advancing to the second round of the playoffs last year, they are out of the postseason picture and their franchise cornerstone, Anthony Davis, has requested a trade. Demps ended up being the fall guy. Per Woj, "Ownership was livid with an injured Anthony Davis leaving the arena during Thursday night’s game. Gayle Benson is telling associates she wants an overhaul of Pelicans and a search for a GM to take command of Davis trade talks and the reshaping of team’s future."

He has only himself to blame.  Not that he *should* have but he easily could have simply clicked accept on the Lakers offer. It now appears that the voice of dissent was Demps.  Bu it gives rise to the question why not fire him before the deadline and install a interim GM to do your bidding in the meantime.  Unless, Demps is simply a scapecoat.

Edited by StifleTower2
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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

This is entirely subjective and I'm certain there are plenty of people who view Durant as one of the most exciting players to watch.  

 

It is, I just needed some context to call him anorexic Frankenstein.

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NBA refuted the 100k per-game report. Even if he plays in the AS game it seems inevitable he gets another “injury” and or sits out for most of if not all their remaining games. 

Edited by HK-47
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8 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

NBA refuted the 100k per-game report. Even if he plays in the AS game it seems inevitable he gets another “injury” and or sits out for most of if not all their remaining games. 

I wouldn't say inevitable, I would say likely.  For all we know the new staff will be instructed to play AD.

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

I wouldn't say inevitable, I would say likely.  For all we know the new staff will be instructed to play AD.

What makes you think that " the new staff will be instructed to play AD"?  I can easily see the opposite being true

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Just now, Gile Pile said:

What makes you think that " the new staff will be instructed to play AD"?  I can easily see the opposite being true

I don't think that.  That's why I said "for all we know".  More than anything I'm just playing devil's advocate bc there are people in here who are hyperbolic/overconfident and profess certainty regarding a situation they can't possibly be certain about.  My job is merely to create doubt.

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1 hour ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

If Adam Silver wasn't soft as bird-$hit he'd get this situation, and the league in general, under control.  Davis has a year and a half left on his contract!  How can a guy with $50M left on his guaranteed contract be shut down, or come up with a faux injury to "preserve himself" or "preserve his value to the team"?

With that logic, why is Luka Doncic even playing?  They should preserve him and tank to pair him and Portzingis up with another top draft pick.  

The NBA is a complete friggin mess.  Davis and Kyrie will both play in the all-star game, be smiling and styling it up the entire time, then immediately be hurt again next week if its convenient for them.

dude, what are you talking about? you dont seem to understand the situation if you are comparing Luka to AD situation.

AD wants to play, team doesnt want him to. and pels shouldnt have to play him and should be able to shut him down. how do you not understand this?

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I wouldn't say inevitable, I would say likely.  For all we know the new staff will be instructed to play AD.

 I think we can all agree the outcome that he doesn’t play, for whatever reason, is the safe bet here. Plain and simple. For all we know AD gives the entire organization middle finger in 5 minutes. But we do know this situation is a mess.

Edited by HK-47
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4 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

 I think we can all agree the outcome that he doesn’t play, for whatever reason, is the safe bet here. Plain and simple. For all we know AD gives the entire organization middle finger in 5 minutes. But we do know this situation is a mess.

Yes, that is the safe bet.  I'm just annoyed by how imprecise/hyperbolic some people are.  No matter how unlikely it is that he plays, it won't be 0% until there is a formal announcement, if that were to ever happen.

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2 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Yes, that is the safe bet.  I'm just annoyed by how imprecise/hyperbolic some people are.  No matter how unlikely it is that he plays, it won't be 0% until there is a formal announcement, if that were to ever happen.

I mean we never really know anything with certainty. We have to make projections or decisions based on what we think is most likely to happen.  If someone offered me AD for even levert for example right now, id reject the offer. Thats how confident i am that AD won't contribute meaningfully anymore to the pels. 

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what are people offering for AD right now? i think im gonna send every guy in my league an offer....is asking for Tobias out of line?

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14 minutes ago, richg24 said:

I mean we never really know anything with certainty. We have to make projections or decisions based on what we think is most likely to happen.  If someone offered me AD for even levert for example right now, id reject the offer. Thats how confident i am that AD won't contribute meaningfully anymore to the pels. 

I hear you.  I try to be mathematical in my decision making.  So I would first assign a number of games I think AD will play during the fantasy playoffs.  I don't think it's likely he plays on average more than 2 per week partially due to this s---y situation but also due to him having a s---y playoffs schedule.  I would then multiple that by his zscore which is 1.2.  That means even if he just plays two games per week his zscore for that week would be 2.4 which would be equivalent to 4 games from a player with a zscore of .6 which is anyone outside the top 10.  But that is not the end of the analysis as there is some non-zero chance he gets shutdown which I need to be compensated for if I'm acquiring him. 

 

I would then assign some percentage to the possibility of a "catastrophic outcome" which is that he gets shutdown post ASB.  According to many people their fear is telling them the likelihood of a catastrophic outcome is almost 100% which I don't think is even possible to know atm.  I think the most likely outcome is he plays some games and misses some others, but I'm not optimistic he plays more than 2 per week during the fantasy playoffs.  Once you calculate that, I would be willing to trade AD but certainly not for someone like LaVert who is hardly better than a WW player.  That's what I mean by hyperbolic.  Some of the trade offers on here are so absurd to almost certainly be trolling?  Okafor?  LaVert?  C'mon.  If you traded LaVert for AD and AD was shutdown then you'd just drop him and use that spot to stream.

 

Ofc if it's auction or keeper then the current situation has much less impact on AD's value. 

 

It's all situation specific.   

Edited by StifleTower2

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11 minutes ago, lacit1707 said:

what are people offering for AD right now? i think im gonna send every guy in my league an offer....is asking for Tobias out of line?

Tobias is about the worst I would accept for AD and that would only be if I was one of the first two teams and just wanted to shed risk.  What some people don't seem to understand about risk is that for something to be risky there's also some potential for reward, otherwise it's not "risky" it's just s---y.  If you accept anything worse than Tobias then you're automatically accepting a bad outcome, and throwing away any opportunity for a good outcome.  If you hold AD then you have some small potential for a good outcome, no matter how slim.  

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9 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

I hear you.  I try to be mathematical in my decision making.  So I would first assign a number of games I think AD will play during the fantasy playoffs.  I don't think it's likely he plays on average more than 2 per week partially due to this s---y situation but also due to him having a s---y playoffs schedule.  I would then multiple that by his zscore which is 1.2.  That means even if he just plays two games per week his zscore for that week would be 2.4 which would be equivalent to 4 games from a player with a zscore of .6 which is anyone outside the top 10.  But that is not the end of the analysis as there is some non-zero chance he gets shutdown which I need to be compensated for if I'm acquiring him. 

 

I would then assign some percentage to the possibility of a "catastrophic outcome" which is that he gets shutdown post ASB.  According to many people their fear is telling them the likelihood of a catastrophic outcome is almost 100% which I don't think is even possible to know atm.  I think the most likely outcome is he plays some games and misses some others, but I'm not optimistic he plays more than 2 per week during the fantasy playoffs.  Once you calculate that, I would be willing to trade AD but certainly not for someone like LaVert who is hardly better than a WW player.  That's what I mean by hyperbolic.  Some of the trade offers on here are so absurd to almost certainly be trolling?  Okafor?  LaVert?  C'mon.  If you traded LaVert for AD and AD was shutdown then you'd just drop him and use that spot to stream.

 

Ofc if it's auction or keeper then the current situation has much less impact on AD's value. 

 

It's all situation specific.   

The "math" is all just arbitrary projections though like he will play 2 games each week. Lets say he did play them, you don't get the monster 1.2 z score AD in 25 min that gives no f***s about the team or this season. Look at his last 2 games. When did he ever do that before...almost never for even 1 game let alone 2 games back to back.

You cannot realistically project any games that AD will play at his top level.

Levert barely better than waiver...you serious? He played like 15 games before going down averaging basically 18-5-5 with over 1 steal, like 2 3s and solid percentages. Id bet you $100.00 right now Levert ros will be top 65 player starting after the break. Look how he has already come back got 32 min last game nearly tripple double 12 7 and 9. Once he shakes the rust look out. I would snap reject an AD offer...actually no i would let it sit forever just in case AD does start playing. But you get my point.

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

Tobias is about the worst I would accept for AD and that would only be if I was one of the first two teams and just wanted to shed risk.  What some people don't seem to understand about risk is that for something to be risky there's also some potential for reward, otherwise it's not "risky" it's just s---y.  If you accept anything worse than Tobias then you're automatically accepting a bad outcome, and throwing away any opportunity for a good outcome.  If you hold AD then you have some small potential for a good outcome, no matter how slim.  

wait, who exactly do you think is fair for AD right now then? Tobias is ranked 25....and im going to assume no one is going to give up their first pick, so 1-10 is basically out of the question....are you saying 11-25 ranks players? im not sure any owner will take on the risk of AD with any of those players..

i honestly thought Tobias was too steep to ask for

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2 minutes ago, lacit1707 said:

wait, who exactly do you think is fair for AD right now then? Tobias is ranked 25....and im going to assume no one is going to give up their first pick, so 1-10 is basically out of the question....are you saying 11-25 ranks players? im not sure any owner will take on the risk of AD with any of those players..

i honestly thought Tobias was too steep to ask for

100% too steep. Show me someone that trades a top 25 player for AD right now i show you a maniac

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This situation is ridiculous on so many levels.  The Pelicans don't want to play him, they should not have to play him, and AD requesting a trade because he does want to be there anymore and now half-wanting to play further validates it.  I didn't think the Pelicans were going to be "forced" into playing him because I thought the league would understand the situation, and both sides - the Pelicans and Davis would come to an agreement that it was the best thing for him and the franchise, but here we are.  And it such a double standard being that other teams have sent healthy players home this season (JR, Z-Bo, Melo). 

I was wrong on him not playing another minute for the Pelicans, but I still believe he is not going to finish out the year playing. Not sure how it gets there, but I think its inevitable because like Gentry said, its a dumpster fire.  For the AD owners, good luck because this seems like such a headache and it is a shame.

Damn, Lebron has basically hurt three franchises in the span of the year with his pouting/tampering/burials/disloyalty/toxicity.....

 

 

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8 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Tobias is about the worst I would accept for AD and that would only be if I was one of the first two teams and just wanted to shed risk.  What some people don't seem to understand about risk is that for something to be risky there's also some potential for reward, otherwise it's not "risky" it's just s---y.  If you accept anything worse than Tobias then you're automatically accepting a bad outcome, and throwing away any opportunity for a good outcome.  If you hold AD then you have some small potential for a good outcome, no matter how slim.  

 

I traded tobias and trae young last Friday to get AD... :(

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Just now, richg24 said:

The "math" is all just arbitrary projections though like he will play 2 games each week. Lets say he did play them, you don't get the monster 1.2 z score AD in 25 min that gives no f***s about the team or this season. Look at his last 2 games. When did he ever do that before...almost never for even 1 game let alone 2 games back to back.

You cannot realistically project any games that AD will play at his top level.

At least you understand my point...none of us know, garbage in/garbage out as it pertains to projections.  Unfortunately, the majority of people are putting too much garbage in the other way...which is expressing absolute 100% certainty he will be shutdown...when certainty isn't possible as you yourself admitted.

 

People are also misunderstanding risk.  Suppose you're in 5/6th atm in a 16 team league where 8 people make the playoffs.  Imo you should be buying AD low instead of selling.  Why?  Because you're very unlikely to win your league as it stands.  Sure you're on track to making the playoffs but you'd be the underdog in any particular matchup.  So let's suppose you'd have a 40% of winning each match and there are 3 matches.  You're sitting at 6.4% chance of winning the ship.  Most people wouldn't guess that because they either overestimate their own chances or don't understand the math.  Trading for AD for say your LaVert could push you over the top, if AD plays during the POs, and the likelihood of that I would estimate to be well over 10%.  You'd actually increase your odds of winning the ship.

 

Sure, you'd also increase your chances of missing the playoffs.  But the last thing you want is to limp in at a 6th seed, lose in the first round, and win no money.  Because then you'd have no money and the extra time of having to manage your team during that week.   

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29 minutes ago, lacit1707 said:

dude, what are you talking about? you dont seem to understand the situation if you are comparing Luka to AD situation.

AD wants to play, team doesnt want him to. and pels shouldnt have to play him and should be able to shut him down. how do you not understand this?

 

Wow, first off, AD wanting to play is highly debatable.  And you're about 30 pages late for that debate.

 

Second, Luka was a completely arbitrary example of a team that has no chance of making the playoffs with a superstar, that would stand to benefit by a complete tank job and holding out their stars.  Thought that was obvious.  And I was mocking the Pelicans in the example.  NBA would be a good time if 15 teams folded up shop 40 games into the season …. no obligation to your Networks paying billions, or your season ticket holders, right?

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6 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Wow, first off, AD wanting to play is highly debatable.  And you're about 30 pages late for that debate.

 

Second, Luka was a completely arbitrary example of a team that has no chance of making the playoffs with a superstar, that would stand to benefit by a complete tank job and holding out their stars.  Thought that was obvious.  And I was mocking the Pelicans in the example.  NBA would be a good time if 15 teams folded up shop 40 games into the season …. no obligation to your Networks paying billions, or your season ticket holders, right?

no, you clearly dont understand the 2 situations....since you have one scenario where youre saying for mavs to tank....while the pels want him out in order to preserve their trade piece...

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17 minutes ago, richg24 said:

100% too steep. Show me someone that trades a top 25 player for AD right now i show you a maniac

I would consider giving up Gobert for AD....

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Just now, lacit1707 said:

no, you clearly dont understand the 2 situations....since you have one scenario where youre saying for mavs to tank....while the pels want him out in order to preserve their trade piece...

 

Sweet jesus, the mavs thing was sarcasm.  Again, the point was a team "benefitting" by not trying to win for future leverage is pretty much the same thing in any example.

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