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Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

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5 hours ago, Gile Pile said:

That core has been together for 2 years now and they are still under 50%. It does not look like bright future for that core in loaded West.

By your logic, can't you also say that the Celtics young core (Tatum, Brown, and Rozier) are playing with 3 AllStars but only making their allstars' lives more difficult. They are not asked to be the primary playmaker nor to anchor the defense, yet they don't produce consistently or efficiently. The team is not performing up to expectation because they are not playing up to expectation; making matters worse even their best player has called them out about not following his lead.

It's all situational man. If the Celtics young core are not paying with established all-stars and for a great X&O coach, then they will just be like the Lakers young core too. 

Edited by bballshinobi

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5 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

I think I am in the minority too about Tatum. I don't think he's going to be a superstar. People think he's going to be a superstar mostly because of the playoff run Celtics had last year. But if he's on a typical lottery team that doesn't have too many good players nor a great coach, are we really going to think the same about him?

 

Their age 20 season:

 

  • Jayson Tatum, 16.5 points, 16.1 PER
  • Andrew Wiggins, 20.7 points , 16.5 PER, 29-53 team record
  • Carmelo, 20 points, 16.7 PER, 49-33 team record
  • Kobe, 20 points, 18..9 PER, 31-19
  • TMac, 15.4 points, 20.0 PER, 45-37
  • Durant, 25.3 points, 20.8 PER for a 23-59 

Stats are never the be all end all of how good a player is. Points per game and team record tend to have an inverse relationship, but PER  can help paint a bigger picture. Kobe, T-Mac, and Durant were already posting all-star level PER when they were 20. I am not saying that PER is the ruler we should measure players on, but it's just an added perspective. Once you factor in teammates, box scores production, advanced stats, and the eye test, I think a reasonable person can agree that Tatum isn't what Celtics fans are hyping him up to be.

I think Tatum will end up somewhere in the Andrew Wiggins and Carmelo range. He can put up points but he doesn't make his teammates better on offense. Just like Wiggins and Melo, he can get buckets for you but not in a way that elevates his team.

Good stuff and I don't think Tatum is the next Kobe or KD, those guys are all-time top 15ish players.  Tatum would be lucky to approximate those guys in his best seasons.  TMac is probably in a class right below those guys or maybe a couple of rungs lower and Melo, while a punch line right now and overrated most of his career, is still a HOF and at one time a top 5 scorer in the league at his apex.  I don't really understand putting Andrew Wiggins in the example and then saying, Tatum will be somewhere b/w Wiggins and Melo.  That's a gargantuan chasm b/w those two.  Andrew Wiggins is a bad basketball player.  Melo, as noted, is a HOF.  That's like saying, I think xyz quarterback will end somewhere between Warren Moon and Matt Cassel.  Tatum's already better than Wiggins (this season):

Wiggins:  12.1 PER, .481 TS%, .014 WS/48, and -0.5 VORP  (yes, that is negative)

Tatum:  16.1 PER, .557 TS%, .120 WS/28 and 0.8 VORP

Basically, you're saying he'll play professional basketball because Wiggins, while having athletic talent, is a lousy basketball player.  But nonetheless, I think there is some credence to your thought process which is why the Pelicans were probably having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the Lakers deal.  Look at Ingram's numbers at 21.  They advanced overall metrics are way worse than Tatum's now or even at 19 and actually align more with Wiggins.

Ingram:  12.5 PER, .538 TS%, .042 WS/48 and -0.5 VORP (yes, that is negative)

So, while some folks are touting the Lakers package, when held up to scrutiny, the pieces are much more flawed than their lofty draft status.  Ball's 2nd year advanced metrics are worse than Ingram's (marginally) Kuzma is a nice player and I think he can be a really good scorer in the league for a decade but he'll be 24 in the summer.  What were Kobe or KD or Melo doing at 23 almost 24?  For one thing, they were all at the All-Star game... and they weren't watching.  I think a lot of evaluators think they Lakers' youngsters can and will get better, but what is their ceiling?  How good can Brandon Ingram be?  Maybe a Lamar Odom type career arc.... pretty good, but not a foundational piece and Odom coming into the league has put up far better numbers than Ingram has.  I've read a lot of evaluators look at Tatum as a Paul George starter kit.  The length and athleticism are very comparable by the eye test but the odds are against Tatum he even becomes that good.  What was PG doing at 20?

I think you bring up some good points and I do think Tatum needs to take his next step as a player next season.... wherever he plays, if he wants to ascend to perennial All-Star status.  As do the young Lakers because right now, only Kuzma is showing his talent consistently in the league.  The other two are potential (and a fair amount) at this stage.  Ironically, Zubac had the best underlying metrics in the Lakers' package or 2nd to Kuzma.

I think the Lakers will still pull out all the stops if/when the Pelicans start taking calls on AD again, but perhaps they need to read Windhorst's column about going out and getting assets better liked by the Pelicans by flipping their own players.  Work the arbitrage.

 

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6 hours ago, DezedandConfused said:

I guess that's also why Demps is on the streets. Demps put personal over making a business decision because of Rich Paul and his agency's approach, which is not good traits for a gm who should put team first overall. Look at the state of that team right now.

Your assumptions appear to be flawed.

 

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On 2/17/2019 at 10:33 PM, StifleTower2 said:

Yes, you should drop him for Jake Layman.  

Ok it's funny until he fakes another injury and he's out for the year. 

 

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4 hours ago, Cdub2k said:

Ok it's funny until he fakes another injury and he's out for the year. 

 

But then you actually SHOULD drop him for Jake Layman.  I’m not obstinate, I know he’s a shutdown risk, but why do it now?  Wait until it’s confirmed and they put an IR tag on him.  

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Imagine they shut him down and both sides build up huge amounts of fan antipathy, only to have AD pull off a John Wall and injure himself off the court? Not saying that I hope that happens but it would serve them right.

 

AD and his agent should honor the contract and should've never made their trade request public, as NO isn't a disfunctional team, it's just not great. NO should try their best, knowing that they have AD and can trade him for the same/similar package up until the next trade line bc some p/o-bound team would trade for him if it means a real s--- at the title, specially if Durant has left GS. NO doesn't need to do anything drastic to save AD.

 

End of my old man rant about how things oughta be. Not even old but I'm just gonna go watch feed some pigeons now.

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I don't here much dysfunction  coming from Sacramento. They seem to be doing just fine and moving in right direction in last 3 years.    Before that, it is a different story

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19 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Good stuff and I don't think Tatum is the next Kobe or KD, those guys are all-time top 15ish players.  Tatum would be lucky to approximate those guys in his best seasons.  TMac is probably in a class right below those guys or maybe a couple of rungs lower and Melo, while a punch line right now and overrated most of his career, is still a HOF and at one time a top 5 scorer in the league at his apex.  I don't really understand putting Andrew Wiggins in the example and then saying, Tatum will be somewhere b/w Wiggins and Melo.  That's a gargantuan chasm b/w those two.  Andrew Wiggins is a bad basketball player.  Melo, as noted, is a HOF.  That's like saying, I think xyz quarterback will end somewhere between Warren Moon and Matt Cassel.  Tatum's already better than Wiggins (this season):

Wiggins:  12.1 PER, .481 TS%, .014 WS/48, and -0.5 VORP  (yes, that is negative)

Tatum:  16.1 PER, .557 TS%, .120 WS/28 and 0.8 VORP

Basically, you're saying he'll play professional basketball because Wiggins, while having athletic talent, is a lousy basketball player.  But nonetheless, I think there is some credence to your thought process which is why the Pelicans were probably having a difficult time pulling the trigger on the Lakers deal.  Look at Ingram's numbers at 21.  They advanced overall metrics are way worse than Tatum's now or even at 19 and actually align more with Wiggins.

Ingram:  12.5 PER, .538 TS%, .042 WS/48 and -0.5 VORP (yes, that is negative)

So, while some folks are touting the Lakers package, when held up to scrutiny, the pieces are much more flawed than their lofty draft status.  Ball's 2nd year advanced metrics are worse than Ingram's (marginally) Kuzma is a nice player and I think he can be a really good scorer in the league for a decade but he'll be 24 in the summer.  What were Kobe or KD or Melo doing at 23 almost 24?  For one thing, they were all at the All-Star game... and they weren't watching.  I think a lot of evaluators think they Lakers' youngsters can and will get better, but what is their ceiling?  How good can Brandon Ingram be?  Maybe a Lamar Odom type career arc.... pretty good, but not a foundational piece and Odom coming into the league has put up far better numbers than Ingram has.  I've read a lot of evaluators look at Tatum as a Paul George starter kit.  The length and athleticism are very comparable by the eye test but the odds are against Tatum he even becomes that good.  What was PG doing at 20?

I think you bring up some good points and I do think Tatum needs to take his next step as a player next season.... wherever he plays, if he wants to ascend to perennial All-Star status.  As do the young Lakers because right now, only Kuzma is showing his talent consistently in the league.  The other two are potential (and a fair amount) at this stage.  Ironically, Zubac had the best underlying metrics in the Lakers' package or 2nd to Kuzma.

I think the Lakers will still pull out all the stops if/when the Pelicans start taking calls on AD again, but perhaps they need to read Windhorst's column about going out and getting assets better liked by the Pelicans by flipping their own players.  Work the arbitrage.

 

 

I chose Andrew Wiggins as a comp because at age 20 he was thought to be one of the next emerging stars - he was picked #1 for a reason. I think you pointing him out what Wiggins is now highlights the fact that a player CAN regress as well, so who's to say the only career path Tatum will take is one of consistent progression and improvement. Not many players come in the league at age 20 and got to play lots of minutes right away, so the sample was limited anyways. Wiggins was a good 20 year old player. He's just not a good 23 year old player lol

I give Brandon Ingram more of a pass because his weakness - shooting - is the easiest and most possible weakness to improve. Passing is art / intelligence / creativity, and you can't teach it. Defense requires physical tools to overwhelm your opponent. This is why I think Ingram has higher ceiling than Tatum and Kuzma, even though they have higher floor. 

 

 

 

Anyways, enough debate about Lakers/Celtics. Let's get back to AD drama!

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2 hours ago, bballshinobi said:

 

I chose Andrew Wiggins as a comp because at age 20 he was thought to be one of the next emerging stars - he was picked #1 for a reason. I think you pointing him out what Wiggins is now highlights the fact that a player CAN regress as well, so who's to say the only career path Tatum will take is one of consistent progression and improvement. Not many players come in the league at age 20 and got to play lots of minutes right away, so the sample was limited anyways. Wiggins was a good 20 year old player. He's just not a good 23 year old player lol

I give Brandon Ingram more of a pass because his weakness - shooting - is the easiest and most possible weakness to improve. Passing is art / intelligence / creativity, and you can't teach it. Defense requires physical tools to overwhelm your opponent. This is why I think Ingram has higher ceiling than Tatum and Kuzma, even though they have higher floor. 

 

 

 

Anyways, enough debate about Lakers/Celtics. Let's get back to AD drama!

Wiggins was mediocre at best for a 20 year old.  He's just a bad professional basketball player thus far.  Probably the first pick at your local pickup game though.

Ingram has a lot of holes in his game right now, but I do think he'll get better.  On a bad team, he's probably a 20 point scorer.  And that's what he would be if the Cans took or take the Lakers offer.  A bad team unless they get a system change.

As for Davis, I think he gets shut down within 15 games.....

 

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7 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Wiggins was mediocre at best for a 20 year old.  He's just a bad professional basketball player thus far.  Probably the first pick at your local pickup game though.

Ingram has a lot of holes in his game right now, but I do think he'll get better.  On a bad team, he's probably a 20 point scorer.  And that's what he would be if the Cans took or take the Lakers offer.  A bad team unless they get a system change.

As for Davis, I think he gets shut down within 15 games.....

 

I don't disagree but if he gets shutdown at game 15, that means he played 60 games this regular season.  If he lasts 15 more games it will mean he will miss roughly the same number of games as Kawhi, Steph, Kyrie, Butler, LeBron etc has this season.  I understand why people are panicking about him missing the H2H playoffs but if you're playing roto you're getting your money's worth.  

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I find the 'Pelicans should sit out Davis' talk maddening!  There are so many reasons why they should not do that.  

First off, they are paying him how much?  The Pelicans are a better team with Davis.  And they have him signed this season and next.  Are they going to sit him out next season also?  He is getting paid and unless he is getting hurt he should be out there.  Anyone can get hurt.  In the end, unless he has a career ending injury he will still have value.  he would miss a year and a half unless it is a career ending injury.

Secondly, Davis has more value as a trade chip if he is playing.  If Davis is at home on the couch playing video games does he have more value then if he is playing?  Heck no he does not.  If the Pelicans say we aren't playing him then that makes his value even less.

The Pelicans owe it to their fans he plays.    But in the end, him playing gives them more value trading him.

 

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1 hour ago, StuPitt said:

I find the 'Pelicans should sit out Davis' talk maddening!  There are so many reasons why they should not do that.  

First off, they are paying him how much?  The Pelicans are a better team with Davis.  And they have him signed this season and next.  Are they going to sit him out next season also?  He is getting paid and unless he is getting hurt he should be out there.  Anyone can get hurt.  In the end, unless he has a career ending injury he will still have value.  he would miss a year and a half unless it is a career ending injury.

Secondly, Davis has more value as a trade chip if he is playing.  If Davis is at home on the couch playing video games does he have more value then if he is playing?  Heck no he does not.  If the Pelicans say we aren't playing him then that makes his value even less.

The Pelicans owe it to their fans he plays.    But in the end, him playing gives them more value trading him.

 

 

Sorry, but your points aren't valid. 

1- The Pelicans are a better team with Davis? Who cares? They aren't making the playoffs this year and are actually better off losing every game the rest of the year to get a better draft pick. 

2- He has more trade value if he is playing? No. His value is the same if he plays or doesn't. Missing 20 games or so won't lower his value. If he tears his ACL or blows out his achilles then the Pels have a HUGE problem. 

Davis owners should have bailed on him when they had the chance. Now they are coming up with ridiculous arguments to convince themselves that Davis should still have value going forward. 

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1 hour ago, StuPitt said:

The Pelicans owe it to their fans he plays.

 

Honest question....Do Pelicans fans really want to watch AD play now?

Personally, if Kyrie requested a trade from Boston he'd be dead to me.

I might be bummed out I had already bought tickets, but I'd much rather watch Rozier play his a** off then Kyrie half heartedly dominate the ball.

 

 

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2 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don't disagree but if he gets shutdown at game 15, that means he played 60 games this regular season.  If he lasts 15 more games it will mean he will miss roughly the same number of games as Kawhi, Steph, Kyrie, Butler, LeBron etc has this season.  I understand why people are panicking about him missing the H2H playoffs but if you're playing roto you're getting your money's worth.  

If you were to lose a player to injury rn, then that sucks but it's just the way she goes. With AD sitting out, you feel pretty cheated.

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19 minutes ago, jsquints said:

 

Honest question....Do Pelicans fans really want to watch AD play now?

Personally, if Kyrie requested a trade from Boston he'd be dead to me.

I might be bummed out I had already bought tickets, but I'd much rather watch Rozier play his a** off then Kyrie half heartedly dominate the ball.

 

 

 

Yup, but at least as a Celtics fan you could probably stomach Irving to help you win this year. Davis has no value to the Pels or their fans. If I was a Pels fan I would want no part of Davis on the court. Keep him healthy at home and  trade him in the off-season. 

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3 hours ago, claptondecheeks said:

If you were to lose a player to injury rn, then that sucks but it's just the way she goes. With AD sitting out, you feel pretty cheated.

I have AD in four leagues, two roto and two H2H.  I don't feel cheated in roto as he's already provided his value.  I don't feel cheated in roto because 45 games of a zscore of 1.2 is better than value than most first round players.  In H2H it will really suck if he doesn't play during the playoffs.  But I knew coming into the season that AD was the biggest high risk/high reward player in fantasy.  I feel the way about AD similarly when I miss a flush draw when given proper odds to chase it which is basically, "Oh well..."  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I have AD in four leagues, two roto and two H2H.  I don't feel cheated in roto as he's already provided his value.  I don't feel cheated in roto because 45 games of a zscore of 1.2 is better than value than most first round players.  In H2H it will really suck if he doesn't play during the playoffs.  But I knew coming into the season that AD was the biggest high risk/high reward player in fantasy.  I feel the way about AD similarly when I miss a flush draw when given proper odds to chase it which is basically, "Oh well..."  

Yeah, I'm in H2H so I do feel cheated. I get what you mean about Roto... If I understand it correctly, it's basically like the Euro soccer leagues (not champions) in that you score points throughout the season and if you accumulate the most points, you win and there's no p/o. 

 

Truth be told, I don't keep up with the NBA outside of playoffs IRL, so I wasn't aware of this drama. In fact, I haven't watched a single game all season. At this point, I understand the chances of him playing and being the #1 player in fantasy is pretty slim. But, there's still a chance, so I'm gonna hang onto him unless maybe I can flip him for Embiid (doubtful, Embiid owner proposed a trade for PG13 straight up). Thankfully, I think my team is loaded enough to win without him. I went undefeated since he made his demand with a weak bench and now I've got guys coming off IL and my gambles like Jabari Parker are about to pay off.

 

Still, AD better get his unibrow on the court. And you know his brow is connected to his beard, then goes down to his happy trail, around to his taint, up his butt crack, and continues all the way to the back of his head. He's basically a big a** eyebrow, he needs to stop acting like he's hot s---.

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I have AD in four leagues, two roto and two H2H.  I don't feel cheated in roto as he's already provided his value.  I don't feel cheated in roto because 45 games of a zscore of 1.2 is better than value than most first round players.  In H2H it will really suck if he doesn't play during the playoffs.  But I knew coming into the season that AD was the biggest high risk/high reward player in fantasy.  I feel the way about AD similarly when I miss a flush draw when given proper odds to chase it which is basically, "Oh well..."  

yea but AD missing the playoffs, not because of injury (which we all knew THAT risk) but becuase of this trade nonsense is like getting beat on the river with a 2 card outer.

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1 hour ago, lacit1707 said:

yea but AD missing the playoffs, not because of injury (which we all knew THAT risk) but becuase of this trade nonsense is like getting beat on the river with a 2 card outer.

Maybe, but whenever I get two outed I just assume it's my turn to get ******, next time it will be someone else's turn.

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Lineup note: Interim GM Danny Ferry said Anthony Davis will play rest of season. Davis and Jrue Holiday will see minutes decrease.

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