ST. STEVEN

Tre'Quan Smith 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

I just talked to some hardcore Saints fans who follow the team closely. First thought: ADD THIS GUY NOW. 

What did they say?

Do tell.

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1 minute ago, candygram4mongo said:

What did they say?

Do tell.

That his talent is off the charts and that he will be the Saints #2 receiver this season. Meredith is still recovering and will be eased in. 

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Strong hands, catches with his hands - athletic big frame. He has been making nice plays during camp, caught a bunch of passes every pre season game. Meredith hasn't caught a pass yet this preseason. Think he'd be solid for dynasty. Seen reps with Hill which could just be SP giving him reps and opportunities.

 

Since we are on the topic of Saints rookies; Lattimore did quite a bit for the Saints DST if you want to really pick at the point. Last high end draft picks they used on WRs Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and now Tre'quan Smith.  I am an owner of Mr. smith and a saints fan so take it as you want.

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Debating dropping Cole for him...any thoughts between the 2?

 

Cole has the opportunity to be the #1 while Smith could be the #2 in a high powered offense...tough call.

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2 minutes ago, remark900 said:

Debating dropping Cole for him...any thoughts between the 2?

 

Cole has the opportunity to be the #1 while Smith could be the #2 in a high powered offense...tough call.

 

Thats really tough man, I honestly like Dede Westbrook more than i do Cole.

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[AC content and responses removed.  "Player X or Player Y?" needs to go in the Assistant Coach forum.]

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There are not a lot of organizations where the #2 WRs can put up 1000, I think the Saints are one of them.

 

I don’t personally have the bench to draft Tre'Quan Smith but I wish I did.  With Meredith not 100% there are a lot of targets that have to go somewhere.  I had to look up who their TE was this year...  Why not Smith getting those targets?

 

There are several rookie WRs that look great to the preseason.  I think it’s between Tre’Quan Smith vs. Courtland Sutton vs. Michael Gallup, who have the least barriers to contribute.

 

Gallup has the most upside if he can win #1 the WR job, but he also has the lowest floor in what could be a WR committee.  I’m not a D. Thomas fan, but he now has the best QB he’s had in years... we’ll see.  Sutton is the #3 WR but he looks ready to steal targets.

 

It’s funny, going into the draft everyone was praising the RB depth/talent, but it might be a big year for rookie QBs and WRs instead.

 

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I don't see Meredith being a factor this year and Ginn has been running the wrong routes in preseason. Smith will be the #2 WR he is the more complete option.

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I have a feeling people should add him now before the breakout. I’m smelling number two receiver on this offense especially when the coach praises him. I posted about golladay earlier this week, but I’m even considering smith over him now because of the upside and offense

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2 hours ago, affliction said:

I don't see Meredith being a factor this year and Ginn has been running the wrong routes in preseason. Smith will be the #2 WR he is the more complete option.

The Saints #2 receiver has consistently had right around 1,000 yards receiving (two years ago they had two WRs with 1,100+) with the exception of last year because Ginn is terrible. There is a very clear path to fantasy relevance and even potential top 24 production. 

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34 minutes ago, munde53 said:

The Saints #2 receiver has consistently had right around 1,000 yards receiving (two years ago they had two WRs with 1,100+) with the exception of last year because Ginn is terrible. There is a very clear path to fantasy relevance and even potential top 24 production. 

 

Under Payton, the Saints have had No2 WRs reach 1000 yards twice...in 2011 and 2012. I honestly would pump the breaks on Smith. I love this kid, and as a Saints fan he has me VERY excited about the future of our WR corps. But...chances are better than not that he ends up with no more than 800-900 receiving yards. Why? Just look at last year when Payton showed renewed dedication to the running game and less reliance on Brees. Add to that a defense that was much improved in 2017 and a unit that the Saints expect to be just as good or better this year. A better defense leads to fewer shootouts and fewer catch-up games...which plays into Payton's desire to use balance in the offense with the running game. 

 

Ted Ginn wil get his targets. Meredith may or may not begin to get his legs back under him, and if he does, he's too talented for Brees to ignore. Speaking of Brees, he's historically been a QB who prefers to spread the wealth than rely on just a couple of pass-catchers. We know Thomas and Kamara are going to eat. Ginn will get his targets. Ben Watson looks solid again at TE. Ingram will get his targets when he returns. 

 

Smith looks like an enormously talented player, but I think stating it's possible that he's a fantasy WR2 this year is a bit premature. I'm personally think that 60-800-6 would be a fine season for Smith. That would be ~134 points in my 1/2 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR3. 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Under Payton, the Saints have had No2 WRs reach 1000 yards twice...in 2011 and 2012. I honestly would pump the breaks on Smith. I love this kid, and as a Saints fan he has me VERY excited about the future of our WR corps. But...chances are better than not that he ends up with no more than 800-900 receiving yards. Why? Just look at last year when Payton showed renewed dedication to the running game and less reliance on Brees. Add to that a defense that was much improved in 2017 and a unit that the Saints expect to be just as good or better this year. A better defense leads to fewer shootouts and fewer catch-up games...which plays into Payton's desire to use balance in the offense with the running game. 

 

Ted Ginn wil get his targets. Meredith may or may not begin to get his legs back under him, and if he does, he's too talented for Brees to ignore. Speaking of Brees, he's historically been a QB who prefers to spread the wealth than rely on just a couple of pass-catchers. We know Thomas and Kamara are going to eat. Ginn will get his targets. Ben Watson looks solid again at TE. Ingram will get his targets when he returns. 

 

Smith looks like an enormously talented player, but I think stating it's possible that he's a fantasy WR2 this year is a bit premature. I'm personally think that 60-800-6 would be a fine season for Smith. That would be ~134 points in my 1/2 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR3. 

Why would you pump the brakes on a guy that's free?

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Under Payton, the Saints have had No2 WRs reach 1000 yards twice...in 2011 and 2012.

 

Also 2016 when both Cooks and Thomas had over 1100 yards. 

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4 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Why would you pump the brakes on a guy that's free?

 

Pump the brakes on the expectations. Guys are talking about 1000yds and WR2 status. I never said don't go get him (I have him in my one league and am happy about it)...I just said pump the brakes. I assumed everyone would understand that to mean expectations, not ownership. 

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2 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

Also 2016 when both Cooks and Thomas had over 1100 yards. 

 

You are correct, sir. Thank you. 

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10 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Pump the brakes on the expectations. Guys are talking about 1000yds and WR2 status. I never said don't go get him (I have him in my one league and am happy about it)...I just said pump the brakes. I assumed everyone would understand that to mean expectations, not ownership. 

Yeah I suppose,

 

Thing about this dude is tho... I think it's going to be fairly easy to predict his blowup games with matchups. Plus I think most of the real blow up games can come in his hot period, which should coincide with just the time I need him.

 

Juju only had 900 yards and 7tds last year, but he definitely won people fantasy titles.

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24 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Why would you pump the brakes on a guy that's free?

Because Smith isn't available in his league and pumping the breaks makes that poster feel better! 

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3 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Yeah I suppose,

 

Thing about this dude is tho... I think it's going to be fairly easy to predict his blowup games with matchups. Plus I think most of the real blow up games can come in his hot period, which should coincide with just the time I need him.

 

Juju only had 900 yards and 7tds last year, but he definitely won people fantasy titles.

 

The thing about Juju was that he broke out HUGE on Oct 29. Prior to that, he had 17-221-2 in 7 games. In the final 7 regular season games he played, he had 41-696-5. That's why he helped win leagues. 

 

A difference between he and TQ is that, iirc, Ben had fewer mouths to feed. Juju broke out because there was no one consistent on the outside after AB, and Juju took his place in the top 3 for the Steelers with AB and Bell. Brees will have more weapons to choose from. Unless everything goes wrong this year for NOLA, it won't be Thomas, Kamara, and Smith as the only reliable targets. There will be Ingram starting in week 5, Watson, Ginn, and possibly Meredith. Plus Brees likes to spread things around more than Ben. 

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5 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

Because Smith isn't available in his league and pumping the breaks makes that poster feel better! 

 

Lol. I love these RW posts. Perhaps you should read...because then you would have read in my reply to pushaZ that I'm actually a happy TQ owner in the one league I'm playing in. LOL. 

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16 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Under Payton, the Saints have had No2 WRs reach 1000 yards twice...in 2011 and 2012. I honestly would pump the breaks on Smith. I love this kid, and as a Saints fan he has me VERY excited about the future of our WR corps. But...chances are better than not that he ends up with no more than 800-900 receiving yards. Why? Just look at last year when Payton showed renewed dedication to the running game and less reliance on Brees. Add to that a defense that was much improved in 2017 and a unit that the Saints expect to be just as good or better this year. A better defense leads to fewer shootouts and fewer catch-up games...which plays into Payton's desire to use balance in the offense with the running game. 

 

Ted Ginn wil get his targets. Meredith may or may not begin to get his legs back under him, and if he does, he's too talented for Brees to ignore. Speaking of Brees, he's historically been a QB who prefers to spread the wealth than rely on just a couple of pass-catchers. We know Thomas and Kamara are going to eat. Ginn will get his targets. Ben Watson looks solid again at TE. Ingram will get his targets when he returns. 

 

Smith looks like an enormously talented player, but I think stating it's possible that he's a fantasy WR2 this year is a bit premature. I'm personally think that 60-800-6 would be a fine season for Smith. That would be ~134 points in my 1/2 PPR league, which would have made him a low-end WR3. 

Saints receivers with 800+ yards since Brees has been the starting QB.

 

2017:

WR1 - 1,245

 

2016:

WR1 - 1,173

WR2 - 1,137 (rookie)

 

2015: 

WR1 - 1,138

WR2 - 984

TE1 - 825

 

2014:

WR1 - 931

WR2 - 902

TE1 - 889

 

2013:

WR1 - 943

TE1 - 1,215

 

2012:

WR1 - 1,154

WR2 - 1,041

TE1 - 982

 

2011:

TE1 - 1,310

WR1 -  1,143

 

2010:

WR1 - 1,023

 

2009:

WR1 - 1,074

WR2 - 804

 

2008:

WR1 - 928

 

2007:

WR1 - 1,202

 

2006:

WR1 - 1,038 (rookie)

 

That's 3/10 years that Brees has had two receivers eclipse the 1,000 yard mark. That's 6/10 years that Brees has had two receivers eclipse the 900 yard mark as well. Of the WRs who finished as WR2s last year (13-24) only two of them eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark and shockingly five of the 12 had less than 900 yards receiving. So in other words 83% of the WR2s from last year finished with below 1,000 yards receiving and 42% of WR2s finished with below 900 yards receiving.

 

Now 2017 was a bit of a down year for the WR position overall but when we look at 2016 there were still 5 of the WR2s who finished with less than 1,000 yards receiving (42%). 

 

What I'm trying to say is that there is precedent for a Brees led offense to have two receivers go over 1,000 yards receiving or at least over 900. Even if the #2 receiver doesn't go over 1,000 yards there is still a fair chance he could finish as a top 24 WR at years end as long as he gets into the end zone as well. 

 

Odds are that Smith will not be a WR2 at years end and there is even a chance that he doesn't secure the #2 job on his own team. However, he's solid late round flier that has the potential to provide WR2 number if things fall his way.

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7 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Saints receivers with 800+ yards since Brees has been the starting QB.

 

2017:

WR1 - 1,245

 

2016:

WR1 - 1,173

WR2 - 1,137 (rookie)

 

2015: 

WR1 - 1,138

WR2 - 984

TE1 - 825

 

2014:

WR1 - 931

WR2 - 902

TE1 - 889

 

2013:

WR1 - 943

TE1 - 1,215

 

2012:

WR1 - 1,154

WR2 - 1,041

TE1 - 982

 

2011:

TE1 - 1,310

WR1 -  1,143

 

2010:

WR1 - 1,023

 

2009:

WR1 - 1,074

WR2 - 804

 

2008:

WR1 - 928

 

2007:

WR1 - 1,202

 

2006:

WR1 - 1,038 (rookie)

 

That's 3/10 years that Brees has had two receivers eclipse the 1,000 yard mark. That's 6/10 years that Brees has had two receivers eclipse the 900 yard mark as well. Of the WRs who finished as WR2s last year (13-24) only two of them eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark and shockingly five of the 12 had less than 900 yards receiving. So in other words 83% of the WR2s from last year finished with below 1,000 yards receiving and 42% of WR2s finished with below 900 yards receiving.

 

Now 2017 was a bit of a down year for the WR position overall but when we look at 2016 there were still 5 of the WR2s who finished with less than 1,000 yards receiving (42%). 

 

What I'm trying to say is that there is precedent for a Brees led offense to have two receivers go over 1,000 yards receiving or at least over 900. Even if the #2 receiver doesn't go over 1,000 yards there is still a fair chance he could finish as a top 24 WR at years end as long as he gets into the end zone as well. 

 

Odds are that Smith will not be a WR2 at years end and there is even a chance that he doesn't secure the #2 job on his own team. However, he's solid late round flier that has the potential to provide WR2 number if things fall his way.

 

Absolutely agree with you. I'm not trying to say TQ will suck or not worth owning or anything like that. I was just saying to temper the expectations. Maybe he's everything we're all hoping he can be and end up as a 70-1000-8 guy this year. I'd be ECSTATIC, lol as a fantasy owner. I'm just slowing my expectations on him because he's going to be a rookie who will be, at best, 3rd in line for targets behind Thomas and Kamara. Then guys like Ginn, Ingram, Meredith (if he gets right), and Watson will get their targets. 

 

As a Saints fan, I'm hopeful that the guy looks great as a rookie but doesn't have to be relied on too heavily. If he does, that's probably not good for the team because it means Meredith didn't pan out, Ginn and Watson showed age, Saints having to play from behind or getting caught in shootouts, etc. 

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15 minutes ago, Zangief80 said:

so are we saying this guy will be a WR3?  Seems like a lot of discussion just for that tag.

Possible WR2. 

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Any details on his pre-season snap counts with the first team offense?

 

Meredith seems to be struggling big time to get back, and Ted Ginn doesn't seem like a huge obstacle to overcome.  If last year proves to be the outlier, and the Saints come back to ~600-625 pass attempts (which is still on the low side compared to his years in NO), Smith could be very productive this season.  

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38 minutes ago, Zangief80 said:

so are we saying this guy will be a WR3?  Seems like a lot of discussion just for that tag.

 

He's an emerging WR on an explosive offense with the most accurate QB in NFL history (by almost a full percentage point) at the helm. Some leagues start a WR3, and most leagues these days (it seems) use 1-2 flex positions. And he was either drafted very late or picked up via free agency, so the idea that he may emerge as a WR3 (outside shot at a WR2) is pretty exciting given the fact that he's virtually free for every owner.

 

To me, all that warrants the amount of discussion over the last few days and warrants more in the coming days/weeks. 

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