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James Conner 2018 Outlook

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38 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

The trade deadline is oct 30th.   After the conclusion of week 8.    What he’s saying is that it’s likely Bell doesn’t report until after that date unless a trade bell likes is on the table.    

And that would make some sense.  But that's not what he wrote.

 

The Steelers cannot trade Bell unless and until Bell signs.  So to write that Bell will sign after week 10 if he is not traded makes no sense.

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what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

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4 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

i don't think any of it matters. at this point Connor is worth WAY more to you than he is to anybody you might try to trade him to. Really all you can do is run him out every week and enjoy the ride. Nobody conscious will give you anything of value for him. you can't trade him, you're not gonna drop him, so just roll him out every week until Bell comes back and hope Bell keeps delaying. 

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42 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

 

what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

This specifically? I don't think they come to an agreement for the exemption tbh.  Even if they don't,  I still think Conner is the undisputed starter(and a top 6 RB) for a few games.  Might put in Bell as a decoy/pass catching back.  After a few games, they'll likely calculate if Bell is ready for real football snaps and some sort of snap split will ensue.  Don't think it's realistic for anyone to say "Bell won't return this year" anymore.  

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1 hour ago, CABLE87 said:

 

what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

 

It's great, means Bell is out for at least the next 2 games.

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Not sure what to make of all this. Was holding Conner over trading because I feel like Pittsburgh is going to move Bell or not play him. I had an offer of Adams and Mack for Conner and AP and declined it. In light of Mack’s week and the recent Bell update it would have been a great deal. Wondering if I should go back and try to get the deal done since his team just fell to 2-5. 

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2 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Not sure what to make of all this. Was holding Conner over trading because I feel like Pittsburgh is going to move Bell or not play him. I had an offer of Adams and Mack for Conner and AP and declined it. In light of Mack’s week and the recent Bell update it would have been a great deal. Wondering if I should go back and try to get the deal done since his team just fell to 2-5. 

 

I'd try to get that thing done asap.

 

Ever looked at Adams' playoff schedule?

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19 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

It's great, means Bell is out for at least the next 2 games.

Means the Steelers are responding back and saying “f*** you”. 

 

I think the Steelers have the leverage in this situation. Bell has to sign the franchise tag by week ten. He also will need some time to get in football shape. 

 

I think we have Connor getting all the snaps for at least 2 more weeks at this point. 

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Just now, dmody91 said:

Means the Steelers are responding back and saying “f*** you”. 

 

I think the Steelers have the leverage in this situation. Bell has to sign the franchise tag by week ten. He also will need some time to get in football shape. 

 

I think we have Connor getting all the snaps for at least 2 more weeks at this point. 

Sounds like at least 3 weeks now!

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IF this kid does wind up keeping the gig throughout the rest of the season, lookie here at this stretch run (weeks 12-16): @Broncos, Chargers, @Oakland, New England, @New Orleans. 

 

YES, PLZ

 

:wub:

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1 hour ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

IF this kid does wind up keeping the gig throughout the rest of the season, lookie here at this stretch run (weeks 12-16): @Broncos, Chargers, @Oakland, New England, @New Orleans. 

 

YES, PLZ

 

:wub:

 

 

Wow! Fingers crossed, thought its looking like a timeshare. 

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4 minutes ago, HTM said:

Stay strong LeVeon. We are with you brother. 

You're weith Lev? Riding jet skis through the Miami club dance floor? ;P

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9 minutes ago, Mikeyvegas said:

You're weith Lev? Riding jet skis through the Miami club dance floor? ;P

Of course, as Conner owners we encourage this very much

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That's why you don't listen to fantasy so called experts telling to sell Conner lmfao

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Felt like a genius selling this guy in multiple leagues after week 2 but while I probably got peak trade value for him looks like the best deal probably would've been no deal especially after I've played against him in 3 leagues the past 2 weeks. Seems less and less likely this guy will disappear and Bell returning at all this season seems far from a certainty to me at this point. 

Edited by Jaw1

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On 10/21/2018 at 9:53 AM, CABLE87 said:

 

what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

This is great news.  It means that Bell won't be playing for at least two weeks after he signs (since the Steelers would have to pay him if they play him...but since they don't plan to pay him it means they don't plan to play him).

 

I've gotten as much out of Conner as I could have ever hoped.  And things could still break even more in his favor depending on how things shake out.

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On 10/21/2018 at 9:53 AM, CABLE87 said:

 

what do we make of this?? As conner owners??

 

 

 

Simple. As most of us have said over the past several weeks, Bell wasn't going to sign before the trade deadline (Oct 30) unless he agreed to a trade. Which as Conner owners, was best-case scenario as then he'd be out of our hair. 

 

What this means is that the Steelers are standing firm on the roster exemption and don't intend to pay Bell through it. So I can see three scenarios playing out here:

 

1) Steelers agree to pay Bell enough during the exemption to get him to sign his tag: In this case, Bell reports Oct 31 (after the trade deadline), tries to make amends with his teammates, spend the two weeks of the exemption getting into football shape and proving to his teammates that he deserves to be there. Because of the exemption, this means he misses games against the Browns, Ravens, and Panthers, but is active from Jacksonville onwards. Likely a committee with Conner, because I can't imagine the Steelers brass just letting Bell waltz in and take over the bellcow job.

 

2) Steelers don't agree to pay Bell a dime through the exemption: Bell reports on Nov 13, the last date to accrue a season. At this point the Steelers apply the exemption, so he's inactive for @Jax and @Den. Then the Steelers [who probably hate his guts by this point] need to decide whether to actually try to play him for weeks 13-17 or just cut bait and keep him inactive those weeks. I give it a <50% chance that he plays another down for the Steelers if it plays out like this.

 

3) Steelers don't agree to pay Bell a dime throught the exemption: Bell says "screw you" and doesn't sign his franchise tag at all. This gives the Steelers the ability to tag him with the exclusive again for $14.5M in 2019, but he has to believe they won't do that because he's proved his point. They probably won't let him walk to FA, but they might tag him with the non-exclusive tag, let him get his FA contract and not match it, and then they get compensation for him going to another team. 

 

I think the Steelers are going to play hardball, so I don't see #1 as very likely--say 35%. If #1 doesn't happen, I honestly see #3 as the next most likely option (65% if #1 doesn't happen). 

 

So that results in:

 

#1: 35% likely

#2: 22.27% likely

#3: 42.25% likely

 

In other words, a mess.

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On 10/22/2018 at 6:49 PM, bwarbiany said:

 

Simple. As most of us have said over the past several weeks, Bell wasn't going to sign before the trade deadline (Oct 30) unless he agreed to a trade. Which as Conner owners, was best-case scenario as then he'd be out of our hair. 

 

What this means is that the Steelers are standing firm on the roster exemption and don't intend to pay Bell through it. So I can see three scenarios playing out here:

 

1) Steelers agree to pay Bell enough during the exemption to get him to sign his tag: In this case, Bell reports Oct 31 (after the trade deadline), tries to make amends with his teammates, spend the two weeks of the exemption getting into football shape and proving to his teammates that he deserves to be there. Because of the exemption, this means he misses games against the Browns, Ravens, and Panthers, but is active from Jacksonville onwards. Likely a committee with Conner, because I can't imagine the Steelers brass just letting Bell waltz in and take over the bellcow job.

 

2) Steelers don't agree to pay Bell a dime through the exemption: Bell reports on Nov 13, the last date to accrue a season. At this point the Steelers apply the exemption, so he's inactive for @Jax and @Den. Then the Steelers [who probably hate his guts by this point] need to decide whether to actually try to play him for weeks 13-17 or just cut bait and keep him inactive those weeks. I give it a <50% chance that he plays another down for the Steelers if it plays out like this.

 

3) Steelers don't agree to pay Bell a dime throught the exemption: Bell says "screw you" and doesn't sign his franchise tag at all. This gives the Steelers the ability to tag him with the exclusive again for $14.5M in 2019, but he has to believe they won't do that because he's proved his point. They probably won't let him walk to FA, but they might tag him with the non-exclusive tag, let him get his FA contract and not match it, and then they get compensation for him going to another team. 

 

I think the Steelers are going to play hardball, so I don't see #1 as very likely--say 35%. If #1 doesn't happen, I honestly see #3 as the next most likely option (65% if #1 doesn't happen). 

 

So that results in:

 

#1: 35% likely

#2: 22.27% likely

#3: 42.25% likely

 

In other words, a mess.

I agree with everything except your percentages.

Scenario #1 is more like 5% 

Scenario #2 seems like the more likely scenario IMO. It's the one I've been anticipating all year and one of the reasons why I haven't even attempted to shop Conner 

 

Scenario #3 seems to be the 2nd most likely even though it would be extremely foolish for Bell's camp to even allow this to linger into next season but at this point Bell has shown his true mental capacity this season so I wouldn't be shocked if he decides to further screw himself.

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  • James Conner: He has 91.5 percent of the Pittsburgh backfield touches, the highest rate in the league and only Todd Gurley has more touches than Conner’s 10 inside of the 5-yard line. The Browns rank 25th in yards from scrimmage (155.7) allowed to opposing backfields per game, including 192 total yards surrendered to Conner in Week 1.

 

 

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Lol.  Picked up a backup RB off waivers on September 3, fully expecting to drop him 3 days later after Bell reports, and re-acquiring my original late round bench stash, moving on with my life and roster.  

 

Instead I have a locked in RB1 and 1st round pick equivalent that's saved my week several times and might be 2018's fantasy league winner if and when Bell never reports, or reports 30 lbs overweight. 

 

TLDR:. REALLY cool story bro.

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I'm sure a lot of 1st place teams have Conner or Mahomes.  Both are difference makers who were late round picks or early season waiver wire pickups.  Some of us are lucky enough to have both

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